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Drugmakers are preparing to launch an estimated 13 new weight-loss treatments in the U.S. over the next five years amid surging demand for the products, according to a new report by Global Data.
Beginning in 2024, the number of obesity drug launches is expected to climb significantly, reaching a peak of four launches per year in 2027 and 2028. In comparison, only three products were launched between 2019 and 2023, the research firm said.
Fueling demand is the skyrocketing rate of obesity in the U.S., with the World Health Organization predicting that around 50% of US adults will be considered obese by 2030, up from 42% in 2020 and only 31% in 1999. Meanwhile, sales of weight-loss drugs have also soared, with Novo Nordisk’s (NVO) Wegovy and Eli Lilly’s (NYSE:LLY) Zepbound generating $9.7B in global sales in 2023, according to the report.
GlobalData said weight-loss drug heavyweight Novo Nordisk is expected to launch six products in the next five years, led by CagriSema, a combination of the active ingredient in Wegovy, semaglutide, and cagrilintide. Currently in Phase 3 testing, CagriSema is expected to hit the market by the end of 2025 and generate sales of $7.4B by 2029.
According to Novo Nordisk’s website, a second anti-obesity drug, INV-202, is in Phase 2 testing, with newer formulations of semaglutide in mid-to-late stage development. Novo Nordisk is also developing a peripheral focused ultrasound therapy with GE Healthcare (GEHC) for obesity, which is also in Phase 2 testing.
Novo Nordisk’s main competitor in the weight-loss game, Eli Lilly, also has big plans. According to its website, Lilly has two anti-obesity drugs in Phase 3 testing, orforglipron and retatrutide.
Lilly has also partnered with Chinese drug developer Innovent Biologics on an anti-obesity drug called mazdutide. Innovent’s market application for mazdutide was accepted for review by Chinese regulators in February.
Also nearing commercialization is efpeglenatide, which is being developed by South Korean drugmaker Hanmi Pharmaceutical, and Boehringer Ingelheim’s survodutide.
Other drug candidates in mid-stage development for obesity include Viking Therapeutics’ (VKTX) VK2735, Structure Therapeutics’ (GPCR) GSBR-1290 and Altimmune’s (ALT) pemvidutide, Pfizer’s (PFE) danuglipron, and Amgen’s (AMGN) AMG133, also known as MariTide.
Meanwhile, Roche has two early-stage candidates in the hopper, CT-996 and CT-388, through its acquisition of Carmot Therapeutics.
While the weight-loss drug market is likely to become more crowded over the next few years, GlobalData believes there should be enough demand to support multiple players.
“Recent blockbuster launches have showcased the viability of obesity drugs,” said GlobalData pharma analyst Jasper Morley said in the report. “In accordance with the increasing patient population, it is highly likely that a number of companies manufacturing these later entrants will receive great returns for their efforts.”
