| 2:00 |
: Hey everyone, welcome to the chat, let’s get started
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| 2:01 |
: how much of a skill do you think is clutch hitting
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| 2:02 |
: Pretty close to not at all. I’m not denying that you can have a clutch or unclutch at bat but let’s put it this way
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| 2:02 |
: if clutch means performing better in big spots…. David Ortiz has a 0.02 “clutch” int he playoffs
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| 2:02 |
: he hit just about as well in high leverage situations as in low
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| 2:02 |
: He had a 140 regular season wRC+ and 144 playoff wRC+
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| 2:02 |
: And that is, by popular opinion, the most clutch hitter of the 21st century
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| 2:02 |
: so everyone else is LESS clutch??
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| 2:03 |
: What is a reasonable expectation for Heliot Ramos and Tyler Fitzgerald going forward? 3 WAR starters?
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| 2:03 |
: I think that would be an absolutely unreasonable expectation for Fitzgerald
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| 2:04 |
: I don’t really buy his defensive value being high enough to carry that, and I think he’s probably just about an average hitter, and that this will be his best year by a mile
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| 2:04 |
: clearly even the Giants don’t believe it, they’re having him bunt in extra innings
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| 2:05 |
: Ramos, I think I’m in as a 2-3 WAR guy, his offensive performance looks a lot closer to the underlying stuff and I’m more willing to shade upwards from projections b/c of his prospect pedigree
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| 2:05 |
: What would be a more hitter-friendly ballpark: a straight wall that’s 350 at the corners (triangle shaped park), or a parabolic wall that’s 300 at the corners but 400 in center?
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| 2:06 |
: this is a great question. Off the top of my head the 350 one would be b/c the power alleys and center have a ton of batted balls in the 350-400 range, but this sounds like a fun question to look at in more depth later
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| 2:06 |
: Which one of Jacob Misirowski and Craig Yoho are joining my pen for a playoff run? Or both?
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| 2:06 |
: Yeah I think both actually
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| 2:06 |
: This is random but wondering what you think: Innings eaters are kind of like volume scorers. Teams are moving away from them because their value comes from bulk, their skillsets tend to be context dependent and higher variance, and they’re usually more efficient when asked to do less (ex. air it out off the bench, as a max effort five & dive guy). Does this make any sense?
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| 2:07 |
: Yeah totally makes sense to me. The logical extension there is that innings eaters with above average quality mirror the guys who got underrated by basketball analytics when PER was all the rage
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| 2:07 |
: Worse NL West injury news (and why) — Ketel Marte, Tyler Glasnow, or Ha-Seong Kim?
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| 2:08 |
: Marte, for me. I think that he and Glasnow both have arguments as the best player of the group, not that Kim is bad. And then the DBacks feel like they have less behind him, whereas the Dodgers can do their normal use a ton of pitchders you haven’t heard of who look great and then blow out their elbows
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| 2:08 |
: anthony volpe: utterly hopeless? zero redeeming qualities at the plate
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| 2:08 |
: Yeah I think he should probably just retire
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| 2:09 |
: He has a miserable 104 wRC+ since the All Star break, that wouldn’t even play in little league
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| 2:10 |
: I think Volpe is just going to be a defense first guy who ends up with roughly average offense in a way that makes Yankees fans burn him in effigy
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| 2:10 |
: gonna be a great time for us non-Yankee fans
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| 2:10 |
: When we say someone has a .400 wOBA in the month of july, how are the run expectancy weights calculated? Is it always using the previous 162 games or just the data from that month?
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| 2:10 |
: data from that year
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| 2:10 |
: all of our wOBA is done on a per-year basis
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| 2:11 |
: If you’re going to walk Juan Soto why not also walk Aaron Judge? Bases loaded one out against any yankee not Soto or Judge has to be a better expectancy than two on one out for Judge
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| 2:11 |
: mmmmm… I think the issue here is that if you take Sizemore at his word and look at this in the most positive possible life, it’s not about run expectancy but about the odds of one or more runs scoring
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| 2:11 |
: And if that’s what you’re optimizing for, you can’t put a guy on third with less than two outs
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| 2:12 |
: Hi Ben – a bit off topic but have you planned any ski trips for the upcoming season?
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| 2:12 |
: It depends on what you mean by “planned”
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| 2:13 |
: Specific trips, not yet. But we’ve set up a few flight trackers and such, planning on our annual Alta/Snowbird trip, some Tahoe trips, and probably a Colorado double dip where we fly into one and drive to another
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| 2:13 |
: When WAR totals are close enough that they are more or less the same, what do you like to use as a tiebreaker?
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| 2:13 |
: Depends what I’m trying to choose
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| 2:14 |
: but generally speaking if I’m trying to determine who IS better, not who has played better, I focus more on the statistics I consider more stable/predictive
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| 2:14 |
: I would like to defend Masataka Yoshida. He presently has an OPS of .813 which would be 16th in the AL if he had enough PA’s to qualify and has been carrying the offense since returning from his injury.
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| 2:15 |
: I would LIKE Yoshida to be a useful contributor, I really enjoy his whole game
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| 2:16 |
: the problem is that Rafaela is a huge minus as an infielder and huge plus as an outfielder, so playing him at short to squeeze in Yoshida’s bat at DH (by putting Abreu in the field) just doesn’t make sense
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| 2:16 |
: I mean, I could be wrong and Abreu could be the weak link here
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| 2:17 |
: But I don’t htink it’s Duran or Rafaela, and it’s probably not Tyler O’Neill?
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| 2:17 |
: How do you consume baseball during the season? Multiple screens to watch multiple games? Focus on a single game/night? how does Ben figure out what he likes and doesn’t like in any given week!
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| 2:17 |
: Oh it’s very arbitrary
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| 2:17 |
: I’m a single game single screen guy, but I do jump around between games quite a bit
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| 2:17 |
: If I’m watching a non-competitive game and tehre’s nothing clearly grabbing my attention, I’ll generally switch
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| 2:18 |
: Do different sites have different win probability charts? ESPN’s seems off to me when I’m watching their broadcasts and they display win probability on screen.
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| 2:18 |
: Yeah. What historical set of games you compare to is most of the difference, I think
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| 2:18 |
: would you believe Jack Suwinski is 4-for-45 in his latest AAA stint?
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| 2:19 |
: I would b/c he’s on my Ottoneu team (look, I should cut him, I know) and I see his lines every so often
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| 2:19 |
: my gooooodness
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| 2:19 |
: Corbin Carroll! All the way back??
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| 2:19 |
: Let’s just say ‘yes’
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| 2:19 |
: b/c I’d be splitting hairs about anything between, say, 95% and 100%
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| 2:20 |
: It’s wild how he was just really bad for a long time
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| 2:20 |
: and then bam, just back
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| 2:20 |
: it’s hard to figure out what players are going to do!
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| 2:21 |
: Is relief pitcher performance more variable year-to-year than starter performance just because relievers pitch fewer innings (=smaller sample size)? Or is reliever performance more variable year-to-year than starter performance because relievers are worse pitchers than starters, and/or airing it out more than starters?
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| 2:21 |
: Think the Mariners move one of their young pitchers for a hitter or two this offseason? Miller and Woo gotta be at their peaks, and Logan Gilbert team control is starting to dwindle.
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| 2:21 |
: Look, never say never, but my view has consistently been that the Mariners value their pitching so highly that no one is likely to meet their asking price
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| 2:22 |
: Am I kaput? What is my outlook for next year?
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| 2:22 |
: Okay, amazing
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| 2:23 |
: splits are always kind of a silly way to say if players are good, b/c small samples and all, but carroll is slugging .611 since the All Star break
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| 2:23 |
: of course, Tyler Fitzgerald is slugging .748 since the break
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| 2:23 |
: What’s your level of confidence in Spencer Torkelson going forward? Would love to see him be at the center of the youth movement in Detroit
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| 2:24 |
: it’s not zero…. so like, 1%?
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| 2:24 |
: I think it’s really smart of them to bring him back up and see what they have
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| 2:24 |
: but it’s not even like he hit well in the minors
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| 2:25 |
: I think that at this point, you have to face facts here. There’s a pretty good chance that Torkelson just doesn’t have the skills to consistently hit major league pitching at a high level
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| 2:25 |
: ESPN has Clase at the top of their AL Cy Young tracker. Did they do this to make me upset?
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| 2:25 |
: I don’t even have any comments here, that’s wild
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| 2:25 |
: actually I lied, I do have one thing to say: use our Cy Young tracker
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| 2:26 |
: not only does it track what’s happened now, it uses our projections to imply how the race projects to look at year’s end
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| 2:26 |
: and uh…. Skubal/Sale by a mile
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| 2:26 |
: Who is your favorite national tv play-by-play man? I think mine is Boog Sciambi
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| 2:26 |
: Making me pick a favorite is so cruel
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| 2:26 |
: oh national, I was thinking my favorite of the broadcasters
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| 2:26 |
: yeah Boog is great, huge fan
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| 2:27 |
: Joe Davis is excellent. Honestly I think there are a ton of good PBP guys doing it right now
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| 2:27 |
: It’s crazy to me that perfectly legit MVP seasons like Bryant in 2016 or even Altuve are just going to be left in the dust by about 3 people in the AL this year
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| 2:27 |
: yeah both Witt and Judge are just going bananas so much that Soto is barely in the race
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| 2:27 |
: and he’s hitting .300/.432/.601 lol
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| 2:28 |
: What if I told you that Bryce Harper has 5 seasons (including 2015) on Aaron Judge and leads him by…. .1. Not 1! .1! (They’re both about to hit 50)
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| 2:28 |
: I’d believe you b/c I looked at so many silly Judge stats when I was doing the trade value series
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| 2:28 |
: he’s just outrageous
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| 2:28 |
: What does Winn need to do in the last month to get in the convo for ROY?
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| 2:29 |
: kidnap Jackson Merrill and Paul Skenes and entice them to release videos declaring their retirement
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| 2:29 |
: Do you think the Orioles see something fixable in Trevor Rogers? On deadline day the deal was a head-scratcher… and since then it only looks worse.
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| 2:29 |
: I think that they definitely do
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| 2:29 |
: he’s been omg cover your eyes awful as an O, no argument there
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| 2:30 |
: I’m circling around writing about the changes he’s made since going to Baltimore, but it’s tough when he’s just getting so crushed
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| 2:30 |
: Thoughts on Mendoza calling on a hot Jeff McNeil to sac bunt with two on and no out in the ninth?
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| 2:30 |
: Out of Hamilton, Rafaela, Abreu, or Wong, how many become long-term starters for Boston?
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| 2:30 |
: I feel like it’s around 2.5
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| 2:31 |
: I think Rafaela is the best of the bunch by a decent bit, at least in terms of likelihood of ending up as a regular
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| 2:31 |
: Abreu is probably gonna be a platoon guy unless he hits the top part of his distribution of outcomes, but Rafaela’s defense plays both ways
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| 2:31 |
: At this point, for the sake of 2025 and beyond, shouldn’t the Cards be giving Jordan Walker every chance to succeed now?? I don’t get it.
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| 2:32 |
: I think so, yes
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| 2:32 |
: They’re playing like the playoffs are still well within reach, but like…. it’s getting late
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| 2:32 |
: Guardians used to be the easy answer to “who’s going to win the AL central?”, but with them playing .500 ball since the beginning of June and the Twins and the Royals making noise it’s much less clear. Who ya got?
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| 2:33 |
: Gimme the Twins, but to be honest, I think it’s close enough between the three that I’m just picking the group with the easiest strength of schedule
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| 2:33 |
: This has to be some sort of record for the worst line ever for a pitcher that got credit for the win, (3.1/9/6/6/4/1). Cooper Criswell in the 12-10 Red Sox win on Friday night which definitely supports the belief that wins are not a great way to judge a pitcher’s performance.
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| 2:33 |
: That is….. wow
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| 2:33 |
: Any place I can go to see which pitchers are easiest to run on?
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| 2:34 |
: Corbin Burnes by a hilarious margin
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| 2:35 |
: It looks like Chris Sale is going to lose his place as the best pitcher to never win a Cy Young. It is great to see that his perseverance through injuries that could have broken him has been rewarded.
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| 2:35 |
: I always forget that Sale has never won a Cy because he was so dominant at his peak
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| 2:35 |
: he was able to cut through the distractions and snip out the competition this year, though
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| 2:35 |
: Do you believe the actual spread in team defense is closer to what DRS spits out (+85 to -79 in 2023) or what FRV comes up with (+44 to -47 in 2023) ??
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| 2:36 |
: Oh man, I actually don’t have a strong answer for you here
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| 2:36 |
: FRV mirrors what I think, but i have not dug into the data to get a strong view of why the two are coming to such different conclusions
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| 2:36 |
: Really enjoyed Baumann’s article on Jacob Young. Where do you think he fits into the 2025/2026 Nats? Stick him between Crews and Wood or 4th Outfield PR/Defensive Replacement? Somewhere in the middle pending FA over the winter?
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| 2:37 |
: I think it depends on how Crews develops as a defender
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| 2:37 |
: If he ends up being above average in center, I think you have to play him there
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| 2:37 |
: b/c that just opens up the ability to play a more pure bat in the corner
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| 2:38 |
: Legit 2B starter on a contending team or just a decent player on a bad team? Seems like if he had come up last year as a 23 year old and was putting up this season we’d be talking extension, but since the Nats rushed him it feels like he’s been around for forever.
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| 2:38 |
: I think he’s right on that borderline. I have him pegged around league average
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| 2:39 |
: so like, a contender COULD start that kind of guy, but they wouldn’t be super happy with it
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| 2:39 |
: Outside of multiple players getting dehydrated in the Sacramento son what wacky outcomes can we expect from a major league team playing in a PCL stadium for a full season
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| 2:39 |
: a swarm of kids on a grassy berm chase an Aaron Judge milestone home run ball and inadvertently push Zack Hample onto the field
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| 2:40 |
: what is your prediction for the guardians yankees series
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| 2:40 |
: Anthony Volpe will key a Yankees series victory, Yankees fans will call for him to be replaced by Derek Jeter
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| 2:40 |
: Why isn’t every weekend player’s weekend? Why does MLB care what the bats and spikes of players look like?
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| 2:40 |
: I think b/c it’d look a little weird if guys were using the pencil bat every week
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| 2:41 |
: but yeah, to some extent they already don’t, you know?
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| 2:41 |
: you can almost wear whatever cleats you want
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| 2:41 |
: Very much enjoy your MLB baseball coverage, but any quick OOTP league updates for us?
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| 2:41 |
: I’m not playing this year
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| 2:41 |
: I’ll be back next year but I was just spending too much time on it
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| 2:43 |
: Looking at the cy young predictor, how do you interpret cyp or fip-cyp. If skubal has 120 fip-cyp and ragans has 91, does that translate into some kind of x% chance skubal wins the cy. More points is better, but how much better
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| 2:43 |
: here’s a snippet from tango’s blog on the system that does a historical back-check on it
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| 2:43 |
: Every single Cy Young winner finished 1st or 2nd in Cy Young points, since 2006, without exception. None. And even those who finished 2nd were within striking distance (4 points) of 1st place. So the rule is straightforward enough: if you lead the league in Cy Young points, or are within 4 points of the leader, you are the only candidates to win the Cy Young. This is true for the 30 awards from 2006-2020. 30 for 30.
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| 2:43 |
: I wouldn’t call it that good, and particularly on the projecdted side, b/c the projections have tons of vraiance
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| 2:43 |
: but a 30 point lead is basically 100%
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| 2:44 |
: Ohtani has a realistic shot at being the first ever member of the 50/50 club…
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| 2:44 |
: The guy is just truly remarkable
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| 2:44 |
: my confidence that he’d be a perennial MVP candidate if he never pitched again has skyrocketed this year
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| 2:45 |
: Where is link to the pre-season where y’all ran odds for every team if they lost their 1,2,3,4,5 best players? Searched but couldn’t find it. And next year, please leave the Braves out of the exercise and the voodoo has been very unkind this season…
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| 2:45 |
: it’s truly wild how the Braves have been hit by injury
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| 2:45 |
: next year we will definitely not single out one team b/c jeeeeez
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| 2:45 |
: Riley out 6-8 weeks. Has anyone ever lost the amount of talent in one season to injury that the bravos have this year.
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| 2:45 |
: Nothing comes to mind
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| 2:45 |
: it’s been wild
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| 2:46 |
: I love the Dodgers. I’m wearing Dodgers underwear as we speak. But is it fair at this point to ask if the vaunted player development machine is also breaking pitchers? I know lots of pitchers get hurt, in every organization, but we’re at a point where if it were a different team — one with a worse track record at player development, for example — that we’d be asking that question. Thoughts?
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| 2:47 |
: I think it’s a very valid question to ask. I don’t have a good answer for you, and I dn’t really want to speculate on such a consequential question
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| 2:47 |
: Garcia Jr. is 5th in WAR for 2nd base this season. You’re not buying it?
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| 2:48 |
: I’m not buying his 2020-2023 line either (0.4 wins BELOW replacement)
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| 2:48 |
: Do you think that he actually meant that the wall would be 350 feet away from the plate everywhere? Because a straight wall creating a triangle shaped park would be significantly shorter to CF, wouldn’t it?
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| 2:48 |
: yeah I’m picturing 350 everywhere
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| 2:49 |
: an actual triangle park, agreed, something about hypotenuse math
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| 2:49 |
: Patrick Bailey is a great defensive backstop according to Statcast and other metrics, but he has slumping very hard. He also had a slump later last year as a full time catcher. Is he a full time catcher in the future if he keeps on slumping at the end of the season? Is this just a fluke and hoping he is able to rebound after another season in the books?
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| 2:50 |
: If I were the Giants, I’d be very focused on figuring out whether Bailey is physically tired, mentally tired, whether it’s a fluke, wahtever
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| 2:51 |
: His bat speed hasn’t changed, which doesn’t necessarily tell us anything. It’s worth noting that he has a .151 BABIP since the break, so like, that probably won’t keep happening
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| 2:51 |
: but he’s alos not hitting the ball hard, and not walking
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| 2:52 |
: I will mention my experience with the ABS system last Friday at Worcester. There were 4 challenges. 3 by hitters, 1 overturned, and 1 by a pitcher which was overturned. It was quick and efficient and while I want all pitches called by ABS it was a positive experience.
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| 2:52 |
: I still haven’t seen a game with ABS challenges but I’d like to
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| 2:52 |
: Who plays third for the braves tomorrow?
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| 2:53 |
: we have luke williams as our guess, Zack Short makes some sense too
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| 2:53 |
: Is there something specific that is causing most of the O’s top rookies to struggle so badly in their initial exposure to the bigs, or just general proof that baseball is hard? I know we’re talking SSS, but watching Cowser, Holliday, and now Mayo all look helpless for their first few weeks has been frustrating.
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| 2:53 |
: I think just baseball is hard
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| 2:53 |
: Adley looked like he belonged right away, for example
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| 2:54 |
: alright, I have to head out a bit early today, thank you for chatting with me though, and have a great week. I’ll be back at the same time next week
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Ben is a writer at FanGraphs. He can be found on Twitter @_Ben_Clemens.
