Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 8/26/24

Ben Clemens: You know what, I’m feeling chatty today, so let’s start early

Ben Clemens: Also, I want to get a prompt in here in case anyone has some questions: I went to Saberseminar for the first time this weekend and I thought it was amazing

Ben Clemens: If you guys are interested in hearing about some of these, or discussing them, I’d love to talk about them, I took pretty decent notes when I was in the auditorium

Princess Leia: No need to help us Obi-Wan Clemonobi! Aaron Judge is our only hope!

Ben Clemens: He’s so good

JT: Has Marcus Stroman’s time as a fantasy relevant SP come to an end? (Say 12 team mixed leagues)

Ben Clemens: Yeah I think so

GA Blood: Which player would you rather have for the next 5 years (not considering contract): Willy Adames or Anthony Volpe?

Ben Clemens: Adames, but honestly it’s close

Ben Clemens: This is slightly old now but the last time I got Dan to run 5-year ZiPS, Adames was at 20.77 and Volpe at 20.02

Ben Clemens: I think I like Adames by a bit mroe than that but I do think it’s close

Unfair: Is it cruel to make Patrick Corbin pitch to Soto and Judge?

Ben Clemens: That’s how the Nats are trying to court Soto

Ben Clemens: Let Crews debut, and say ‘hey Corbin will be gone next year and we’ll find a way to let you hit against him’

Tucker. Gunnar. Witt.: Judge will outlast any and all temporary WAR leaders

Ben Clemens: I’m with you

Pirate: Is there any hope left for your boy Ke’Bryan Hayes?

Ben Clemens: ugh, I have to say no

Ben Clemens: the evidence that he is not gonna start hitting the ball in the air is just too great now

Ben Clemens: still not unplayable i don’t think, his defense is just that good

Ben Clemens: but like…. he’s not gonna be a plus hitter despite some individually good tools

Ben Clemens: We talked about this over the weekend, I’m undecided

LSU Dude: Do college stats need to adjust more for park effect or opponent caliber?  Are there clear tiers between conferences?

Ben Clemens: Yes, and teams do

Ron Swanson: How in the holy sam hell are they measuring trunk rotational velocity difference between practice and games?  I would read an encyclopedia about this one:

Effect of Trunk Rotational Velocity on Fastball Velocity Changes Between Practice and Game Settings

Ben Clemens: That one was amazing

Ben Clemens: it was by an Auburn coach/sports scientist, and basically they have a markerless tracking system on the mound there, Kinatrax. So they had guys throw some practice pitches and also some in-game pitches

Ben Clemens: They found that trunk rotational speed has a clearer translation to velo in practice than in games. in games adrenaline seems to pick up and non-trunk motions seem to make up for any slowdown in trunk, whereas in practice it’s a really clear passthrough

Ben Clemens: really cool talk, one of my favorites

Fangraphs Audio Misser: In a recent chat you mentioned that y’all aren’t doing the  Fangraphs Audio podcast anymore. Any plans to restart it? EW is obviously wonderful, but it was fun hearing from the other Fangraphs writers each week.

Ben Clemens: It’s on the list. I also loved doing FanGraphs audio

JT: Who is the best prospect who’s likely to debut this year?

Ben Clemens: Until about three hours from now, Dylan Crews

Ben Clemens: after that, uh…. maybe the Sox bring up Colson Montgomery for a cup of coffee?

Sirras: What is the most exciting play in baseball and why is it the triple?

Ben Clemens: oh man, hot take: it’s the barehanded third base charge

Ben Clemens: triples are great, obviously

bringbackpologrounds: The Lindor/Gimenez trade: Is it looking like a win-win trade now? I miss the JRam and Lindor duo.

Ben Clemens: yup! Both sides would make that trade again

Ben Clemens: it got the right players to the right places

Eamus Catuli: Are you buying any of the adjustments PCA / Amaya have made that’s seemingly lead to better offensive performance over the last month or so? Even if this isn’t their true talent level, if PCA is an average or plus bat going forward, how much does that change his / the Cubs outlook?

Ben Clemens: I mean…. PA as a plus bat is Kevin Kiermaier, great player. I don’t think that’s particularly likely — like, his hot streak has him all the way up to a 78 wRC+, oof — but I think that his bad outcomes (can’t hit at all) look a lot less likely now

Ben Clemens: that’s big news

Nico Nicoson: Smart Fielding: Optimizing Player Positioning –

put mookie betts anywhere

Ben Clemens: I think that one could have used a little more cooking, there were a lot of ‘ways to take this in the future’, but it was pretty cool – basically looking at directional differences in players, they used Castellanos as an example of someone who is at his best going in and left, and talked about how you can move him around to account for that

Ben Clemens: I thought that concept was cool

bringbackpologrounds: Chapman vs Bregman: Which one will have the better career going forward, and who will get the most cash?

Ben Clemens: I think I like Bregman by a bit, I have more confidence that his offense will continue

Ben Clemens: that said, I think Chapman is great, and the Giants should extend him 100%

Ben Clemens: like why would they not

Neward Orton, Jr.: The Effect of Lineup Protection on Pitch Location in Major League Baseball

did this analyze the hitter behind the batter as the “protection,” and was there any discussion of how the hitter being on base ahead of him more often had an impact?

Ben Clemens: it looked specifically at the batter afterwards. Found a meaningful effect in terms of average pitch distance from plate center for situations where a great hitter was followed by one significantly worse

Ben Clemens: I think you could use a similar methodology, probably one that didn’t even need to be so fancy, to measure the effect you’re talking about, but it wasn’t considered in the stuy

Pokey Reese: How many of the Red Sox “Big 4, Anthony/Mayer/Teel/Campbell” in AAA right now are starting opening day 2025?

Ben Clemens: I’m gonna say two

Terry Cruz Crew: Most likely to NOT win division even though in first today: Yankees, Guardians, Astros, or none?

Ben Clemens: Guardians just b/c more teams are close

Ben Clemens: Holding off two teams is just harder than holding off one, mathematically

Thomas: It’s happened. Danny Jansen is now catching during a plate appearance that began with him at bat

Ben Clemens: For the first time in history, amazing

Archer: what did the Tigers feed Parker Meadows while he was in AAA? everything has seemed to click since he got back

Ben Clemens: Yeah, he’s looking like a completely real major league hitter

Ben Clemens: i’d be happy to have him on my team, etc.

Ben Clemens: which is not what I expected

Oliver North: Consistency is Key?: Examining Pitcher Arsenals Across Organizations

Is this like when the Orioles said they did not allow pitchers in their organization to throw cutters, and guys like Arrietta and Gausman and Bundy went elsewhere and had more success?

Ben Clemens: they specifically mentioned that O’s regime, yes

Ben Clemens: They didn’t find a ton of effect in the systematic look, but there were some interesting sections on teams who acquire pitchers and systematically change their arsenals, promising area of research

Nic: Thoughts on Aaron Judge? Like obviously this is incredible. But like, it feels like this so beyond the norm I, and everyone else, don’t even have the proper words to describe it

Ben Clemens: People are just not amazed enough

Ben Clemens: He’s normalized it too much, maybe

Ben Clemens: This is Barry Bonds. Maybe not for as long, but wow!

Carl: Follow up on Pokey Reese’s question – generally is it foolish for the Red Sox to call one of the big 4 up knowing they only a 25% chance of making the playoffs, given how nuclear hot guys like Anthony and Campbell are?

Ben Clemens: I think I’d honestly give it a shot

Ben Clemens: even with a low likelihood of working out

Ben Clemens: what’s the downside here?

Brian: Everyone agrees that it is really difficult (close to impossible) to build a winning team in Colorado because it is such an extreme hitting environment. At what point do we come to the same conclusion (in the opposite direction) for Seattle?

Ben Clemens: Scott Servais had a winning record as Mariners manager and got fired

Ben Clemens: Bud Black is 524-639 and not

Ben Clemens: so like… the expectations here are clearly different, and the actual results have been pretty different too

Ben Clemens: I do not think these situations are the same at all

Nick 1992: How did scouts measure bat speed before stat cast? Like, in the Gary Sheffield era, did it just look like he swings fast?

Ben Clemens: yeah basically

Ben Clemens: but contact quality on squared up balls is a great proxy

Ben Clemens: the ball got small fast when he hit it, everyone always says

Joey Votto: Am I going to the Hall of Fame? Some of my top arguments: People value OBP a lot more than they used to and Todd Helton is in.

Ben Clemens: I think it’s a for sure yes

Judge: No one alive has seen offense like this without an obvious Giant Head situation.

Ben Clemens: people who are alive have seen ted williams play, peak mantle too

Guest: What do you think will happen with Gerrit Cole’s contract? He can opt out of the remaining 4/144M, but the Yankees can void the opt out by adding another year at 1/36M

Ben Clemens: I think that’s exactly what’s gonna happen

Tim Lincecum: Who is the current short of stature, long striding pitcher?  Stroman?

D: In last week’s chat you wrote about how having Yoshida at DH resulted in Abreu in the OF, pushing Rafaela at SS where he’s a huge minus vs CF where he’s a huge plus. While I think the numbers might agree with you on the defense, the scouting might have it a bit closer. You also don’t factor in that Rafaela in CF means Gonzalez, Sogard, Valdez, some rando playing middle infield. The difference between their bats and Yoshida’s is enough to make up for the Rafaela CF/SS difference.

Ben Clemens: the scouting does not have it closer from anything i’ve heard

Ben Clemens: obviously I don’t spend all day asking scouts what they think of Raffaela’s defense at two different positions

Ben Clemens: all the double letters in the first name are mixing me up about the last name

Ben Clemens: but like…. a lot of scouts think he’ll be able to be a great shortstop

Ben Clemens: but he’s obviously elite as a center fielder right now

Ben Clemens: and they’re leaving a lot on the table, at the moment, by playing him at a place where he has, objectively, not done well, instead of a place where the eye test and stat test completely agree that he’s great

Judge: You’re right in terms of length but I just meant single season wRC+

J: Jones is 6’1. Not tall by pitching standards but hardly short of stature.

Ben Clemens: I mean, Lincecum is 5’11”

Ben Clemens: Strider’s 6’0″ if two inches is too much

HappyFunBall: If you sort the FG career leaderboards by wRC+, Judge and Bonds are both 173, but Judge is listed first. Both are ahead of Mantle

Ben Clemens: No age-decline phase for Judge yet, so obviously he’s gonna look great

Ben Clemens: Mantle was a peak-over-career type, though

Ben Clemens: like his incandescent years were just outrageous

Ben Clemens: the 10 year stretch from 22-31 in age, he hit .313/.441/.606, 183 wRC+, goodness

john: Heartened by how many close races we have this season. Is there an easy way to use Fangraphs to compare how competitive this season has been compare to the historical average?

Some kind of comparison of the percentage of teams with competitive records?

Ben Clemens: you can get the records and playoff odds in our odds viewers, this sounds like an article I’d be interested in writing in September

Nic: Thanks for answering my question! Funny story, that’s goes to your answer that people aren’t amazed enough. I was lucky enough to be at the Yankee game Sunday, and after the 3 Homer inning, a guy in my section started asking people if they’d rather start a team with Ohtani or Judge. He was trying to argue for Ohtani, by saying that Ohtani’s also great hitter loke Judge and can pitch. So I was curious, I asked him how much better a hitter he thinks Judge is than Ohtani. He said they were close. When I said that per WRC+ Judge is almost 40% better, his mind was blown and basically just bravo and the conversation ended. Anyway, you are right. People have no idea how exceptional this is.

Ben Clemens: yeah it’s really nuts

Ben Clemens: I think I talked about this some in the trade value series

Ben Clemens: People’s brains are good at ordinal ranking but degree is tough

Ben Clemens: “Judge is hitter #1, Ohtani #2”

Ben Clemens: maybe true, Soto might have something to say about that, who knows

Ben Clemens: but those sound close

Ben Clemens: but another way of looking at it is that Judge is 84 runs above average offensively this year…. Soto 57, Ohtani 55, Witt 52, Gunnar 42, and so on

Ben Clemens: the difference between Judge #1 and Soto #2 is the same as the gap between Soto and Rafael Devers, #12

Judge: how many 200+ wRC+ seasons do I need to make up for my lack of counting stats, in order to make the hall? or is my current peak already good enough?

Ben Clemens: I think Judge is going to be a hall of famer

Ben Clemens: he doesn’t qualify by the rules right now, so in a very technical sense, his current peak is not good enough

Ben Clemens: but if he just plays kinda blah baseball for two years to get to 10, how are you not putting this guy, whose peak is the most monstrous of the modern era, in the hall?

Ben Clemens: the counting stats are there, he has about as much WAR as David Ortiz, so it’s not like we can’t put modern players in at this level

Ben Clemens: and the homers, the extreme dominance, etc.

Brian: 36 year old Mickey Mantle retired after hitting 237/385/398 which was good for a 145 wRC+

Ben Clemens: much worse than his career numbers!

IV: As someone who wishes they coded more, Nick Wan’s presentation seemed interesting. Did you happen to catch that one and what were your thoughts?

Ben Clemens: It was interesting, my thoughts were that it was kinda hard to keep up live and that I was hungry for lunch

Ben Clemens: that said, he has a YouTube channel with a coding bootcamp

Ben Clemens:

D: Okay even assuming the difference between Rafaela’s defense in CF and SS is as vast as you contend, you still have to account for the difference between having Yoshida’s bat in the lineup vs. the parade of 2B.

Ben Clemens: sure, as I’m pretty sure I mentioned at the time, I’m talking about the long-term fit

Ben Clemens: you can see why the Sox are doign it

Ben Clemens: but it’s doing him a long-term disservice

Ben Clemens: and the team is constructed suboptimally, unquestionably, in that specific place

the person who asks the lunch question: what’s for lunch?

Ben Clemens: I actually don’t know yet, I’m gonna scramble around and figure it out

73?: There was an interesting article in The Athletic where Brendan Kuty asked Yankees players if they think Judge can ever hit 73. They all said yes. What do you think?

Ben Clemens: The guy is just so good when he’s on

Ben Clemens: like even the very best hitters need to get lucky to do that

Mariners fan: What’s the easiest way to access past projections? I want to prove a point that Mariners offensive acquisitions have regularly underperformed their projections, even on a park-adjusted basis?

Ben Clemens: it’s tough. Dan’s preseason ZiPS are available for pretty much forever b/c they’re articles and you can just look them up

Ben Clemens: but systematically? gotta pay for it, I pay for Steamer database access

NL MVP: What are the chances that Lindor wins MVP?

Ben Clemens: Maybe like 10%?

Ben Clemens: that looks close enough on the various gambling lines I’m seeing, and feels close to what I’d expect in reality

Wild rule/stat change proposal: If a pitcher picks a runner off a base and he allowed that runner on, the H, BB, or HBP still counts offensively and game wise, but it shall be removed from the pitcher’s stat line.  A well deserved award for an impressive rare feat.  Too out there?

Ben Clemens: I’d just say, why?

Ben Clemens: it’s not liek the thing didn’t happen

Ben Clemens: did the runner score? nope!

Ben Clemens: but it’s not like they didn’t give up that hit

AL Central Casting: Why do some fans still have a problem understanding that platoon splits are a real thing? They get mad if a “superior” hitter is PH for in a leverage spot where they don’t have the platoon advantage – and often argue that they won’t get better against same-side pitching if they aren’t given a chance.

Ben Clemens: I think the second argument is pretty good!

Ben Clemens: they probably won’t

Ben Clemens: and there’s a platoon pinch hitting penalty

Ben Clemens: it’s pretty rare that a pinch hitting decision is significantly great

Ben Clemens: but in genral, I’d say that the amount people get worked up about pinch hitting is just too high in general

NT: Between the White Sox, A’s, and Rockies, who all seem to be committed to rebuilds, which are you most optimistic on becoming competitive again in a few years?

Ben Clemens: the A’s even though I’m not particularly confident in any of them

Ben Clemens: just b/c they’re the least of a wreck

Brian: everyone probably thought the Mick was washed because he hit .237 but he was still 45% better than average!!!

Chip: What’s your take on Jordan Montgomery trashing Boras? Seems to me the market just totally disagreed with his view of his own value. Hard to blame his agent for nobody wanting to give him $100mm, especially when he proceeds to go out and throw up a >6 ERA.

Ben Clemens: I mean, what do you want him to do, not trash Boras?

Ben Clemens: seems like he probably should have settled for a lower-dollar longer-term deal early on, but didn’t

Ben Clemens: and I dunno, I’d be grumpy about that too

Ben Clemens: I don’t think Boras has suddenly lost it or anything. But I understand why Montgomery’s annoyed

Guest: I saw your response to the Ohtani/Judge hitting question but what are your thoughts to “a guy in my section started asking people if they’d rather start a team with Ohtani or Judge.”

Ben Clemens: yeah…. I think it depends a ton on the other parts of this exercise

Ben Clemens: like are we getting a good enough setup that I’m going to be contending right away?

Ben Clemens: should I count on not getting good for three years? do I need to trade these guys for parts right away because my team is bad?

Victoria: How do you personally balance OOA and DRS when looking at defensive metrics?

Ben Clemens: I’ve been doing 2/3 OAA and 1/3 DRS but I need to look into this more systematically

Ben Clemens: and I’m planning on it in the offeseason

Talfred: Soto’s numbers would have him within striking distance for the NL Triple Crown, and he’s miles behind Judge.

Ben Clemens: It’s just nuts, right?

Ben Clemens: Soto is putting together the season I always thought his numbers suggested

Ben Clemens: Ted Williams clone kinda lines

Ben Clemens: and like, nope, not even close to the best hitter in the league

Harper: Judge has more bwar than Harper and Harper will soon deserve HOF. Harper has 5 seasons on Judge

Ben Clemens: Yup, another good way of looking at it

Chip: If you’re the Yankees, how does a Soto negotiation go? Like ‘go find the best offer, and we’ll give you that’? There can’t be a number that the Yankees balk at, having Judge and Soto anchoring a lineup for years to come is just too valuable.

Ben Clemens: yeah or like ‘here’s our big offer, you can go out and find another if you’d like but we’re giving you this big one to show we’re serious and would love a last look’

Liam: I had no idea you were there this weekend Ben! Do you have any notes on my presentation? (pitch arsenal variance across organizations)

Ben Clemens: Yeah, hi! We talked about it some and thought the ambiguous findings at the AAA/ML levels were kinda unsurprising, that it’d be more interesting if you could get the data for low-level pitching to see what happens when teams mold guys when they’re more in their formative years

Ben Clemens: separately I thought the case studies of the specific org pitch changes were cool

Clayton: Kershaw has beaten his FIP almost every year of his career, and has maintained a 0.3 ERA-FIP difference across his 2700 career innings. Is he just better than his FIP indicates? Or is this mostly just good defense + favorable park factors?

Ben Clemens: clearly talent, right?

Ben Clemens: 2700 innings

Ben Clemens: he’s allowing fewer runs than a very crude formula indicates

Ben Clemens: at some point you just have to say okay, the formula with only three inputs probably doesn’t exactly predict and match reality

traced: Do cutters depress BABIP or was that only a Rivera thing? I was watching Clase and figured there’s no way anyone’s hitting that cutter hard consistently.

Ben Clemens: This year, cutters have allowed a .290 babip and the overall league babip is .290, so in the aggregate, no

Ben Clemens: but I think that plenty of specific cutters do

Sodo Mojo: Should the Mariners trade from their pitching depth this winter for bats.  Are Emerson Hancock and Logan Evans enough to hold down the 5th starter spot?

Ben Clemens: it feels like they always should

Ben Clemens: they’re not going to

Ben Clemens: I feel like I answer some version of this question a lot with some version of this answer: I think that we’ve seen that the Mariners value all of their pitchers extremely highly. There’s a revealed preference here: they don’t want to trade these guys

Ben Clemens: they would have by now otherwise

Brian: Speaking of the triple crown, Ozuna leads the NL in average, RBIs and is 4 back in homers

mpv: In years past I’ve read a lot of discussion about productive teammates weakening each others’ MVP positions. No one’s talking that way about Judge and Soto this season – is that because Judge’s performance is a freakish extreme? Or because the argument itself is poor?

Ben Clemens: I think it’s b/c the performance is so outrageous

Ben Clemens: like… c’mon

Ben Clemens: this guy’s the MVP

Ben Clemens: you cannot be serious in thinking otherwise

Ben Clemens: so the teammate vote splitting plays no role

GA Blood: Did you watch any of the Greg Maddux special on MLB Network last night? It was such great content, I wish they’d gone a full 2 hours with it. The segment where they had him and Bonds break down a few PAs was some of the greatest insight I’ve ever seen on what players are actually doing when they’re at the top of their game.

Ben Clemens: I linked to some of those Bonds/Maddux clips a few weeks ago in 5 things b/c I liked them so much

Ben Clemens: they were doing the rounds on the internet as a preview

Ben Clemens: very very cool

bobby witt: I’m on pace for a 10 fWAR season and no one’s even pretending I’ll so much as sniff the AL MVP – has anyone with more fWAR ever been so overshadowed in this race?

Ben Clemens: I don’t know the answer to this historically

Ben Clemens: Just putting it up here in case someone does, you readers are great

Liam: appreciate that feedback, thanks a bunch – talked to Brian Bannister a bit after, and he had some similar input. Said they typically start pitchers in the lower levels with more FB heavy arsenals, then will boost secondary usage as they mature, but  when and by how much to increase secondary usage is pretty up in the air. Thought that was interesting and something I’d like to look into more. (feel free to post this or not just wanted to share)

Ben Clemens: for sure! and yep, that makes sense and is quite interesting

Dodger Homer: Is this the end of the line for Heyward? Very grateful for the last bit of production he produced for the Dodgers … very sorry to see him leave the team so unceremoniously (even if it made sense on paper)

Ben Clemens: Yup, agreed on both, always been a big Heyward fan aside from when he callously betrayed the Cardinals and called them old

Ben Clemens: (j/k about everything except the old part, think he’s a great player and that players should go where they want)

Mariners fan: What’s this conference that happened last weekend, and is there anywhere I can watch/read up on these presentations?

Ben Clemens: Saberseminar is this awesome baseball research conference that happens every August. It was at Illinois Tech this year, I think it’s likely to continue being there, and while it was my first time going it won’t be my last

Ben Clemens: as to where you can watch or read up on them, I don’t know actually

J: 2012 Mike Trout is the obvious answer. Topped 10 WAR but lost to Miggy because of the triple crown.

person: Trout got pretty screwed by Cabrera’s triple crown year

JK: Mediocrity again for the Giants. Where do they go from here?

Ben Clemens: I think they’re gonna extend Chapman, lose Snell, and kinda keep doing a similar thing next year with some of the veterans cut out and hopefully a youth movement

Ben Clemens: it feels really hard to get off the path they’re on

Victoria: The NL rookie class is pretty insane this year. Michael Busch is going to have a 3 WAR season and not appear on a ballot

Ben Clemens: Yeah absolutely nuts

Ben Clemens: what’s the top 5? Merrill/Skenes/Chourio/Fitzgerald/Winn in some order?

Ben Clemens: but like, the only questions on the order are 1/2 and 3/4/5

Ben Clemens: I mean…. maybe!

Ben Clemens: who are you bumping from that list for him? he’s got longer betting odds than the guys I listed

Ben Clemens: just a truly outrageous class

lucas: is there a way to quantify an org’s effect on development? without anything to back it up i suspect the dodgers get better than average results from their (healthy) draft picks while the white sox are the worst in terms of helping their blue chips develop

Ben Clemens: I believe Driveline did a version of this that looked at how projections for prospects changed from year to year

Ben Clemens: I can’t remember the exact details of it, tbh

Mariners fan: How much does a manager actually influence success, anyways? Is this just another nickel and dime move for Jerry to distract us from his inability to put forward a major league offense?

Ben Clemens: not a ton, but sometimes the players need a wakeup call, and what else can you change?

Brian: 1 team has already clinched their preseason over under…who is it?

Ben Clemens: hmmmmm…. to our odds, probably the Nats

Ben Clemens: if we’re talking vegas lines…. I know the A’s and Brewers are really close to theirs

Dirk Funk: Tobias Myers has an identical 3.0 RA9 WAR as Imanaga (and on a first place team lol). Stacked field.

Ben Clemens: yeah but the way he’s done his is gonna keep people from voting for him, plus people aren’t gonna have two Brewers on a ballot I don’t think and he’s clearly worse than Chourio

Brian: Has anyone thrown over 3 times since the new rules were implemented?

Ben Clemens: not frequently

J: What the hell happened to McCormick? He went from career year to sub replacement level in the blink of an eye

Ben Clemens: okay hear me out: baseball performance is volatile

Ben Clemens: obviously that’s not AL of it, but I dunno, did you think he was a 35% above average hitter going forward after last year?

Ben Clemens: I definitely didn’t

Laughingstock: The DBacks feel like a much more dangerous team than they were last year. Do you think that is real, or just a perception bias caused by playing above their heads during their massive hot streak?

Ben Clemens: I mean, they got outscored last year!

Ben Clemens: They’re way clear of that this year despite a bad start from Carroll

Ben Clemens: and they project a lot better this year, b/c they have more good players

Ben Clemens: definitely a real thing

Hmmmm: League-wide SLG was .393 through the end of June.  Since July 01, league -wide SLG is .414.  Is this just a product of hitters slowly gaining an advantage as the summer kicks in, or did Rawlings possibly “undeaden” the baseball mid-season?

Ben Clemens: last year, slugging was .410 through July 1 and .422 in the next two months

Ben Clemens: so like…. we should expect a tick up

Ben Clemens: I wouldn’t read too much into it

BTinVT: Is Schwellenbach a front, middle, or back end rotation guy? Thank you

Ben Clemens: middle for me, but iwth a ton of variance

Ben Clemens: he could be a top guy and I’d be like, okay, guess I was a little low

Mike Hazen: Inspired by the piece about the Montgomery option’s effects on the Dbacks, how many of Suarez, Joc, and Walker would you guess are still on the team next year? If they do have to let like a third of the offense walk, it sure seems like those short term with options contracts might be underratedly risky for teams pushing against budgetary limits.

Ben Clemens: two of the three is my guess, Joc and Walker, but I don’t have any inside info on that at all

Ben Clemens: I mean…. yes, player options are very expensive for teams

Ben Clemens: it’s equivalent to a much larger dollar deal, in expectation

Ben Clemens: I’ve written about this a bunch before

Ben Clemens: I feel like I specifically wrote about how I’m skeptical of these contracts for guys like Montgomery and my personal example, Michael Conforto, who was I think a more clearly egregious version fo the dela

Ben Clemens: in that he had missed a whole year

Ben Clemens: when you sign these deals, you’re getting exposed to downside scenarios some of the time probabilistically

Ben Clemens: they’re much better deals if you can handle volatility

Ben Clemens: if the DBacks can’t, then yeah, they probably deluded themselves a little in signing it

person: while everyone was excited about Danny Jansen, I still had Davis Schneider in roto fantasy on June 26. he was on 1st when that game was delayed and now guess who gets a bonus steal!?

Ben Clemens:

Chip: Any time people marvel at Judge this year I feel it’s necessary to point out that Yankee fans wanted to demote him in May when he was only hitting like .230

Ben Clemens: his trajectory this year is nuts

Ben Clemens: okay, I gotta run and figure out lunch. Thanks so much for chatting with me today, everyone, and especially thanks for the saberseminar questions

Ben Clemens: have a wonderful week