Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 9/23/24

Ben Clemens: Hey everybody, welcome to the chat

Ben Clemens: This is the last one of the regular season, somehow

Ben Clemens: We haven’t quite nailed down our chat schedule for the playoffs yet but I assume it’ll be roughly similar to previous years – a few multi-writer mega-chats to kick off the Wild Card rounds and maybe a few concentrated days later on when both leagues have games. I’ll keep my regular chats going when I’m not competing on the schedule with others

Ben Clemens: Anyway, let’s get started right away

Sirras: I recall you mentioning that there was an article early this year on depth that showed CWS as shallow. Even knowing that, how surprised are you that they managed to hit the 120 loss threshold (and still have games to go where they might surpass it!)?

Ben Clemens: Oh, I’m pretty surprised

Ben Clemens: Like, even with all those players slashed off of the team, our base case was something like 105 losses

Ben Clemens: I really liked this Twitter thread (by a great writer, you should follow him if you’re a twitter person) about the sheer improbability

Jesse: Ben, What are the chances Vlad actually becomes a full time 3B next year? Horwitz looks deserving of a full time role next year and if the Jays want to add thump to the lineup it looks easier to do at the 1B/DH spot than it does at 3B.

Ben Clemens: I wanted to tell you ‘yeah zero chance stop dreaming’ but then I went and looked at the game logs

Ben Clemens: I don’t think it’s likely, even still

Ben Clemens: He has 100 innings this year, and they are definitely giving him chances, but he just doesn’t look good there to me

Ben Clemens: But clearly they are going to give it a shot, and I understand why

Ben Clemens: If he’s about a 40 third baseman, think Rafael Devers, it’s probably better than their alternatives

Ben Clemens: Again, I still don’t think that will work

Ben Clemens: but I am a lot less certain than I was before this year

Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: Gun to your head: who wins the last wild card spot in each league and why?

Ben Clemens: I’m gonna say Mets and Tigers. I’m giving in to the narrative, slash just picking the teams in good spots right now

Dk: Who wins the Mets/Braves series in your opinion? How concerned are you about Lindor’s back injury?

Ben Clemens: I guess I have to say the Mets to stay consistent

Ben Clemens: I’m definitely concerned as a fan of baseball b/c Lindor is great

Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: What does Pete Alonso’s upcoming contract look like?  Does someone give him 6/$180 for about 13 total WAR?  Or does Uncle Steve overpay at something like 7/$220 for 14-15 WAR?

Ben Clemens: I’m looking into free agent projections for our normal top 50 free agents piece

Ben Clemens: and Alonso has been giving me a lot of trouble

Ben Clemens: I model payouts based on WAR plus some adjustments based on the way they accumulate those stats

Ben Clemens: defense less valuable, that kinda thing

Ben Clemens: and I feel like Alonso is going to strain the ‘some adjustments’ part quite a lot

Ben Clemens: like, 6/180 would be a big overpay in my model but I kinda understand why

Cromulent: Lindor for MVP! Wait, did something happen last week?

Ben Clemens: just, truly amazing week by Ohtani

randplaty: Does ERA matter for ROY?

Ben Clemens: it does for me

Ben Clemens: I have to assume it does for everyone

Ben Clemens: I mean, FIP matters too

Ben Clemens: but why wouldn’t we use both to try to get a better idea

Greg: Are Adolis Garcia and Luis Roberts done?  Is there any explanation for their poor season performance?  Would you keep either over Anthony Santander or JJ Bleday?

Ben Clemens: I’m a lot more interested in Robert than in Garcia, because I always kind of mistrusted Garcia’s breakout

Ben Clemens: And age matters a lot here too

Ben Clemens: I think I’d keep Robert, I’m willing to look at this season as a lost year where he got hurt and then the team stunk and he kind of coasted. That’s not GREAT, obviously, but that’s a story I’m willing to live with for his fantasy production

Ben Clemens: I’m definitely willing to be convinced that Santander is a better bet though

Ben Clemens: he’d be my second choice

Pinstripe Cushion: Since 2016 is Taylor Walls closer to his +35 DRS or -11 FRV?

Pinstripe Cushion: How about Altuve, -46 DRS or +2 FRV? That’s a pretty wild swing.

Ben Clemens: I’m in the middle of trying to figure out a reasonable way to blend defensive statistics

Ben Clemens: I’ll be writing about it in the coming weeks when there’s a gap in playoff coverage

Ben Clemens: So, I guess I’d say that the answer is surely in between, and I’ll be able to tell you HOW in between I think it should be in about 10 days

Farhan: Do you see the trend of Wall Street nerds over ex players as GM’s continuing?

Ben Clemens: As a former Wall Street nerd, yes, and it should be me

Ben Clemens: but realistically, uh, I think baseball generally works in trends and then bounce-backs. The trend has been so strongly towards the Ivy League banker consultant type that I think a little retracement is inevitable

Sonny: Is Detroit putting the pieces together and opening the window for a run at the AL Central for the next few years or are their a lot of playoff teams and the 2 teams ahead of them collapsed?

Ben Clemens: Can it be both?

Ben Clemens: I think it’s a little bit of both. I think it’s good for them that they’re in the ALC, though. It’s not like there’s no competition at the top – obviously, the Guardians are consistently pretty good

Ben Clemens: But it’s just a softer division overall, which means that being pretty good makes you stand out more easily. It’s not like the Royals are gonna be awful next year, but I think it’s reasonable to bet on some regression from Witt and that they probably won’t hit gold with every free agent signing again

Ben Clemens: so yeah, I’d say that they’re opening a window for ALC contention

Sonny: What’s your preferred (not predicted) World Series matchup?

Ben Clemens: Brewers/O’s

Ben Clemens: I have personal ties to both teams (my wife’s family are huge Brewers fans, my mom grew up an O’s fan) and I find both teams very fun to watch

curveball? slider?: How has your view of Wyatt Langford changed from the start of the year to now? Bat hasn’t been as good as some hoped so far, but he’s also quietly been a solid defender in the outfield which is a lot better than he was projected to be!

Ben Clemens: My view has gone down slightly, but I think I was a bit higher than the pack to start out

Ben Clemens: I really didn’t buy that he was helpless defensively because he’s such a good athlete, so I’m not particularly surprised that he’s starting to figure that out

Ben Clemens: I’m expecting him to pull out of it

Ben Clemens: I just spent a bit looking over his peripheral numbers, like, I can’t quite see what’s going wrong here

Ben Clemens: I feel like he should be hitting better, basically

Ben Clemens: Can’t figure out the exact reason why he’s not

Ben Clemens: I think I’d say I’m cautiously optimistic but next year needs to be a step forward

Sonny: Has your long term view of the Breslow Red Sox changed much based on ‘24 results?

Ben Clemens: Not a huge amount, tbh. The whole “oh they’re way ahead of the game, all you have to do is not throw fastballs and you’re all geniuses” thing was predictably overblown, and the counter to that was as well

Ben Clemens: There are some predictable roster problems, I’d say, but I think they’re addressable. Willy Adames would look AWESOME here

Ben Clemens: but I guess that’s probably harsh on Story

Ben Clemens: There’s gotta be some way to work the outfield picture, I think they’ll land on something, but it does feel like this team should be able to go toe to toe with the top of the ALE with some offseason additions

fanoftheman: Ben, do you have a favorite baseball feat you’re irrationally attached to? Something like most games played without hitting into a double play, or most consecutive games with a double, something silly like that?

Ben Clemens: I do: most career plate appearances without reaching base

Ben Clemens: John Gant made a run at the record early in his brief career

Ben Clemens: it’s currently held by Von McDaniel, an old Cards pitcher

Ben Clemens: 28 PA, 0 H, 0 BB

Hambone Central: Will either of the Reds or Pirates sign someone (or maybe even someones, plural) from say the Adames, Santander, Alonso, Teoscar, Christian Walker tier of hitters to at least give the illusion of trying to add to their young superstars in EDLC and Skenes?

Ben Clemens: I’m very skeptical that the Pirates will. It just doesn’t feel like the way they spend money even when they have it

Ben Clemens: I think that the Reds make some sense as a team that would go for it a little. I think of that group, Santander probably makes the most sense for them

Pat: AL Manager of the Year- I think it’s been assumed it’s Vogt with Quataro 2nd..If Detroit makes it in, does Hinch snag it away from Vogt..or at least finished 2nd? Doing what they’re doing with 2 starters, I.E., 60% bullpen games, is amazing.

Ben Clemens: I think Vogt is going to win the award regardless, and deservedly so

Ben Clemens: hell of a season

Talfred: Regarding Pete Alonso’s impending free agency, wouldn’t Bryan Reynolds be a good comp? Similar age, playing time,fWAR, etc.?

Ben Clemens: First, Reynolds signed his deal as an extension, so it’s not quite equivalent, though he was approaching free agency when he signed it

Ben Clemens: second, this is my point?

Ben Clemens: Alonso is getting more money than Reynolds, and for fewer years, in all likelihood

Ben Clemens: even though a WAR model would not agree with that

NL WEST: Do the Dodgers hold on?

Ben Clemens: I feel like I’m missing something here

Ben Clemens: I feel quite solid about their lead

Ben Clemens: if they win one out of three from the Padres, it’s pretty much a lock

Talfred: As great as Ohtani is, isn’t the 50-50 hooplah due in part to the overrating of the value of stolen bases in a player’s profile?

Ben Clemens: it’s because value and awesomeness don’t have to be 1:1 correlated

Ben Clemens: 50/50 is just undeniably cool

Ben Clemens: I think that a lot of Ohtani’s dominance fits that mold. It’s just COOL

Bernie Sanders: Do you but into the idea that WAR doesn’t fully capture the value of Ohtani? I agree he has the most pure talent of any player ever, but it seems a lot of other people extend that to also being the most valuable player ever.

Ben Clemens: I mean…. I think that WAR comes pretty close to capturing the full value. The whole ‘oh the last roster spot is great’ argument feels fairly weak to me unless you’re saying that it’s worth 0.5 WAR or something

Ben Clemens: but you don’t have to be the most valuable player by the calculations of WAR to be the most impressive player, imo

Ben Clemens: and Ohtani’s raw talent is just a pleasure to behold

Ben Clemens: Also him learning to steal bases on the fly and becoming the best base stealing threat in baseball is amazing

Bosoxforlife: Do you see the ABS challenge system as being a certainty in 2025?

Ben Clemens: I don’t, but I do think it’s likely

Ben Clemens: I think delaying it until 2026 is definitely still an option though

AL Central Casting: I read yesterday that Willi Castro became the first player in MLB history to play at least 25 games at 5 different positions in the same season. Is this a remarkable achievement, or a bit of trivia that says more about the situation he’s in than him as a player?

Ben Clemens: I think it’s both. Very few players have the defensive versatility that would allow them to do this if given the chance

Ben Clemens: but that’s mostly moot, because almost no one gets the chance

Ken: Something I’ve been noticing lately is that there’s so much more injury insight for football than baseball (to be clear, for fantasy purposes). In football, I’ve basically got minute-by-minute updates on everyone’s status for the week. Meanwhile I’m trying to figure out if I can start Brenton Doyle this week in a weekly roto league and am totally floundering for insight. It’s not just a Rockies mismanagement thing, either, since I’m doing the same with Tyler O’Neill.

Is it just that reporters aren’t really incentivized to be digging that deep on injuries in baseball or something else? Also, am I starting Doyle this week?

Ben Clemens: I’ve been thinking about this question a lot as I get push notifications of Kenneth Walker’s status this year

Ben Clemens: I think that a lot of it has to do with path dependency

Ben Clemens: the NFL has always been so linked with gambling, and to a lesser extent the widespread adoption of fantasy sports, and so the whole questionable/doubtful/out (probable, back in the day) system with its required daily updates makes sense

Ben Clemens: I think the reason baseball never went the same way is that the incentives just weren’t there

Ben Clemens: I’m actually really surprised that injury updates aren’t standardized more now that the league has official sportsbooks and whatnot

Ben Clemens: I think that’s likely to change, though never to the extent of football — the once a week games make their system much easier to update the way they do

Tacoby Bellsbury: LouBob’s got more tools than a Dave Matthews show, there’s still time for him

Ben Clemens: I’m posting this one because I laughed about it

Jordan: Who do you feel will give you the best ROI on a $100-200M deal this offseason between the top free agent SP: Cole, Snell, Burnes, Fried?

Ben Clemens: I really don’t think Cole is hitting the market

Ben Clemens: the way his deal is structured, there’s just a very narrow window where he opts out and the Yankees don’t void it with their option

Ben Clemens: I think that there’s some chance of Burnes getting frozen out a little a la Snell, so he’d be my best guess

Ben Clemens: but not b/c of anything more than a hunch

Bosoxforlife: I can’t help but look in disbelief at the White Sox season. If I am not mistaken a team of replacement level players are projected to play at a .294 pace. Which leads me to question the WAR of Chris Flexen. How can a 2-15 record with a 5.15 ERA, a lot more hits than innings pitched  and not many K’s not be a negative WAR and a large one at that?

Ben Clemens: The White Sox season is going to result in some amazing things we remember for decades

Ben Clemens: As for Flexen in particular, I’m not arguing that our calculation is perfect here but he has 0 WAR on an RA9 basis

Ben Clemens: which sounds about right to me, 5.15 ERA seems replacement level ish

Ben Clemens: neutral-ish stadium, leaguewide ERA is 4.16 for starters

Ben Clemens: I’m gonna give you a quick mathematical proof of this, one sec

Ben Clemens: a team that allows one more run per nine than it scores would go around .400 according to Pythag…. a -162 run differential for the year

Ben Clemens: That’s like Marlins and Rockies territory

Ben Clemens: so that’s actually a smidge BETTER than replacement level by our conception of it, but pitcher WAR is a little more complicated than that, and I’m fine saying a run above average is kinda close to replacement level overall

Ben Clemens: why do we rate him much better than that? His FIP’s a little better than his ERA, so that’s a tiny bit of it

Ben Clemens: but more importantly, we do a hidden calculation in our fWAR, where we convert infield fly balls into strikeouts

Ben Clemens: because they have the same EV as a strikeout – they always produce outs and never advance baserunners

Ben Clemens: and Flexen gets a TON

Ben Clemens: it’s pretty hard to allow a .315 BABIP when you’re also getting a ton of fly balls that don’t leave the infield

Ben Clemens: but uh, have you seen the White Sox defense?

Ben Clemens: in fact, BBRef actually has him with more WAR than we do

Ben Clemens: b/c they look at that White Sox defense and shudder

Hambone Central: Brewers have gotten 18.4 WAR from their position players age 27 and younger, Orioles are at 18.3 WAR. Do the Milwaukee youngsters fly under the radar comparably because they aren’t all homegrown and get more value from defense/base running?

Ben Clemens: The defense thing is a big one

Ben Clemens: Like, I’m sorry, but Brice Turang doesn’t feel like a young stud even though he’s gonna end up with 2.5-3 WAR, because he’s hitting .254/.316/.351

Ben Clemens: and the defense feels a little more prone to regression, than, say, a similar line with more hitting

Ben Clemens: I think also that the O’s guys doing it last year makes the narrative stronger – when we all reset our brains in the offseason, Jackson Chourio will suddenly seem better to everyone

Ben Clemens: even though our estimations were all just too low b/c of his slow start

Ben Clemens: I think there are plenty of people who would still take Jackson Holliday over Chourio just b/c of priors, and I mean, no, disagree, that’s bad

Ben Clemens: I could not agree any more

Ben Clemens: Luke Weaver for Yankees closer

Ben Clemens: that’s the real cinderella story of the year

Bosoxforlife: Can there be a better example of baseball being unable to predict than the Mets SS situation. Lindor goes down and it looks like the end of their luck and up comes Luisangel Acuna who hits .379 with 3 HR’s, looks like Ozzie Smith on defense puts up 0.8 WAR in 9 games and carries the team.

Ben Clemens: I have gone from getting daily “Lindor!” texts from my Mets fan friend to daily “Acuna!” texts

Grandal Richuk: I don’t have a question right now. But I am in a (public, free) roto fantasy league, super tight race at the top with 1-5 separated by a few points. Anyway, the funniest part is the last place guy, managed to draft Ohtani, plug him in as a pitcher and never touch his lineup again. Excellent work for him.

Ben Clemens:

Ben Clemens: that is absolutely delightful

Say Hey: If there was just one MVP for all of MLB this year, who would you pick?

Ben Clemens: I’d pick Judge

Seeking Solutions: So, if you’re the Pirates, do you move on from Ke’Bryan Hayes? If you’re YOU, do you move on from Ke’Bryan Hayes?

Ben Clemens: I think it depends on what “move on” means

Ben Clemens: I have absolutely moved on from thinking of him as an impact player

Ben Clemens: But I think from the Pirates’ standpoint, it’s a matter of traige

Ben Clemens: this lineup has some real stinkers

Ben Clemens: like, it has three good hitters if I’m being charitable

Ben Clemens: and one of them is 38 year old Andrew McCutchen

Ben Clemens: There are a ton of question marks, and third base is one of them. But Hayes adds a ton of value defensively, he’s cheap and also on guaranteed money, and he definitely has at least the ABILITY to hit for power

Ben Clemens: I’d focus on solving other problems first

wheelhouse: luke weaver has a better stuff+ on his fastball than mason miller

Ben Clemens: this is the kind of content I’m here for

Delbert: Is fWAR based more on result stats or expected stats?

Ben Clemens: an excellent and confusing question

Ben Clemens: Given that the key inputs to fWAR are strikeouts, walks, and home runs, obviously result stats matter a TON

Ben Clemens: I’d say that what fWAR does, philosophically, is focus less on the results that are less controlled by a pitcher

Ben Clemens: like, grounders are a great example of this

Ben Clemens: you can do some fancy estimation of how much control a pitcher exerts over their ability to convert groundballs into outs

Ben Clemens: but realistically, it’s a very low amount

Ben Clemens: fWAR ignores those kind of as a feature, and really focuses on the results that a pitcher had a strong hand in

Ben Clemens: I wrote about this a few years ago actually:

Sonny: judges relative power outage didn’t sway you towards Witt?

Ben Clemens: he’s hitting .323/.458/.695

Ben Clemens: with 55 homers

Ben Clemens: and a 216 wRC+

wheelhouse: on the fWAR topic: does it frustrate you that pitching fWAR often comes down to the “who had an outlier low HR/FB rate year” leaderboard?

Ben Clemens: a little bit, for sure. to be fair, that matters a lot for ERA too

Joe: Have your overall expectations for Jackson Holliday changed at all given his struggles this year?

Ben Clemens: They are much lower now

Ben Clemens: Or well, they’re lower

Ben Clemens: How could this not change my opinion?

Ben Clemens: obviously, there’s a decent chance that he is exactly the player he thought and that this is just an adjustment period

Ben Clemens: but surely you have to recalculate the odds that that’s the case with the knowledge that he’d be unplayably bad for a few weeks, go back to the minors, and then come back up with less fanfare and be… replacement level

Guest: Who should replace David Bell as Reds manager?  And do you think David Bell was at all actually to blame for the Reds’ struggles this year?

Ben Clemens: I think that Dan Szymborski has a great opinion about this

Ben Clemens: unless you have a truly sensational manager, use a short leash

Ben Clemens: players seem to benefit from a change in managerial styles, and honestly, while managing is a hard job, there are probably lots of people who can do it passably well

Ben Clemens: keep cycling through

Guest: In the Fangraphs Preseason Staff picks, 1 writer picked the Royals to make the playoffs; 2 writers picked the Guardians; and 2 writers picked the Mets.  Do these writers get, like a fruit basket?  Or just bragging rights?  Or do we just shake our head and say “baseball!”?

Ben Clemens: sadly, I can tell you that it’s the latter

Ben Clemens: I picked the Orioles to win the ALE last year

Ben Clemens: and I got, as a prize, a bunch of O’s fans who said I hate their team b/c our models thougth they should be underdogs against the Rangers

Andre: The NYM are 65-36 since May 30. Are they a plucky bunch of lovable overachievers we’ve been told they are, or are they just one of the more talented teams in the league?

Ben Clemens: more the second, I think

Ben Clemens: the reason the plucky overachiever narrative is sticking is b/c the Mets had some holes get filled by guys like Jose Iglesias

Ben Clemens: who is unquestionably a plucky overachiever

Ben Clemens: and b/c Lindor is somehow underrated as a star

Bosoxforlife: I think Nick Yorke has a good chance of adding a solid bat to the Pirates lineup. They stole him from the Red Sox for Priester who doesn’t ignite any excitement in Red Sox Nation.

Ben Clemens: Love me some Nick Yorke

Ben Clemens: now admittedly, some of this is b/c he had an awesome card in OOTP perfect team last year

Ben Clemens: and I used it a lot

Ben Clemens: but all he does is hit, so yeah, I’m into that kind of profile

Jeff Cirillo: Very few people picked the Brewers to win the NL Central this season, and they’re kind of chronically underrated in preseason projections. Is that a tendency to focus on stars and underrate depth?

Ben Clemens: I feel like this year was something different than normal, to be honest

Ben Clemens: the Brewers had shockingly low over/under season win total lines in the gambling markets, which is not normal

Ben Clemens: they tend to be grouped in with the Cubs and Cards but this year they were at o/u 75.5, which is wild

Ben Clemens: I think that their ability to consistently turn out good defenders and position them well has led to us underrating them a bit in projections

Ben Clemens: they are fip-beaters as a team, and while we get some of that by projecting defense, we regress defensive projections pretty heavily

Ben Clemens: b/c that’s the observed behavior. and Milwaukee’s seems to regress less

Ben Clemens: but I think this year, they also had a ton of question marks and unproven rookies stepping in, so there was a reason that expectations dipped

Mike Trout: Any thoughts on why Luisangel was so bad after the Mets acquired him? I’m surprised by the hard contact he has made in his first week.

Ben Clemens: I don’t have a strong view other than that I like to let prospects give me a few years of stats

Ben Clemens: that said, his power production is obviously silly at the moment and I do think he’s gonna struggle pretty hard to keep that part up

Ben Clemens: there’s minor league statcast now, and the guy had 15 barrels out of 457 balls in play

Ben Clemens: 3 in 25 as a big leaguer is just a smaller sample, you know?

Mama Cass: What’s happening with Oakland obviously sucks but how favorable is it for the Giants situation in SF since they’re going to be the only game in town now?

Ben Clemens: It’s definitely favorable for them, I actually have some anecdotal evidence of A’s fans I know preparing to make the switch

birds birds birds: What are some real phenomena in baseball that we can’t statistically distinguish from random variance because baseball is so random?

Ben Clemens: There are so many of these

Ben Clemens: I feel like teams can maybe do a better job with better data and also better statisticians, but: effect of foul balls on subsequent production

Ben Clemens: how batters do when the reliever has a different arsenal than the starter he replaced

Ben Clemens: nonsense like that

Peaks and Valleys: How do you characterize a career like Tyler O’Neill’s? I get that there’s an injury element to it, but also his two “good” years have starkly different ISO and wrc+ numbers. Is he reliable for future years or just a crapshoot?

Ben Clemens: I characterize it as “fun”

Ben Clemens: O’Neill was one of my favorite Cardinals and I’m still a big fan

Ben Clemens: that said I think the big thing about a game like his is that it’s going to be streaky

Ben Clemens: and that a few little things being off tend to affect him more than the average player b/c his gameplan is based so heavily on maxing out in one way or another

Ben Clemens: on that note, I’m going to go grab some lunch

Ben Clemens: Enjoy this last week of regular season baseball, and then it’s time for playoff mode

Ben Clemens: have a wonderful day