The Twins still have a hold on the third AL Wild Card spot — for the moment. After blowing a 3-0 lead against the Guardians in Monday’s series opener in Cleveland, they’ve lost 18 of their past 27 games. They haven’t won a series against a team with a winning percentage of .500 or better in over a month, and now lead the surging Tigers by just a game and a half in the Wild Card standings. This past weekend, Minnesota activated both Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa from the injured list following lengthy absences, but the two stars by all accounts are playing at less than 100 percent, and sadly for manager Rocco Baldelli, they aren’t likely to provide innings out of the bullpen when they’re not in the lineup.
As of August 17, the Twins were 70-53, a season-high 17 games above .500. At the time, they were running second in the AL Central, two games behind the Guardians, and second in the Wild Card race, a game and a half behind the Orioles but two games ahead of the Royals, from whom they’d just taken two out of three (that aforementioned last series victory against a winning team). Since then, the Twins have gone just 9-18 (.333), outdoing only the White Sox (5-21, .192) and Angels (7-19, .269) among all major league teams; even the worst NL team in that span, the Marlins, has gone 10-17 (.370). The slump has pretty much closed the door on Minnesota’s chances of claiming the AL Central, and meanwhile, the Tigers have gone 17-9, tied for the majors’ best record in that span, to poke their noses into the Wild Card picture.
Twins Change in Playoff Odds
| Date | W | L | W% | Div GB | WC GB | Div | Bye | WC | Playoffs | Win WS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 17 | 70 | 53 | .569 | 2 | +5* | 36.8% | 33.9% | 55.6% | 92.4% | 6.4% |
| September 17 | 79 | 71 | .527 | 7.5 | +1.5* | 0.2% | 0.1% | 76.6% | 76.7% | 3.2% |
* = lead over top non-Wild Card team.
During this slide, the Twins have lost series to the Padres, Cardinals, Braves, Royals, and Reds, splitting one with the Rays, and beating only the Blue Jays and Angels — not exactly a performance befitting a playoff-bound team. In that span, the offense has scored just 3.81 runs per game while the pitching staff has allowed 5.22 per game. It’s not what you want.
The returns of Buxton and Correa would appear to be just what the doctor ordered… except that neither is at full strength. The team’s struggles created some urgency, and both players were healthy enough to come back, though not to play every single day. “I can’t tell you we really were super deliberate here and were able to take our time in every way,” Baldelli said on Friday.
“We might have an idea, but we want to check on them and see what they’re doing,” the manager said before Sunday’s game, which both players sat out while the team won 9-2 to prevent a sweep by the Reds. “Believe me, this isn’t like a 100 percent-type conversation. If they were 100 percent, they’d play.”
The 30-year-old Buxton missed a month due to inflammation in his right hip, while the 29-year-old Correa missed two months because of plantar fasciitis in his right heel. It was the second IL stint of the season for both, as Correa missed 16 days in April due to an intercostal strain, and Buxton 16 days in May with right knee inflammation. Despite their absences, they’re the team’s two most valuable players by WAR, with Correa (3.8 in 77 games) playing at a blistering 8-WAR pace and Buxton (3.3 in 93 games) playing at nearly a 6-WAR pace.
Buxton began a rehab assignment on September 2 with the Triple-A St. Paul Saints, but played just two games before renewed soreness forced the Twins to pull him back. Prior to rejoining Minnesota’s lineup on Friday, he hadn’t played in a game since September 4; he spent his time rehabbing at Target Field, going through agility drills and live batting practice against minor league pitchers. Back in the lineup, he quickly made his presence felt, hitting a game-tying solo home run off the Reds’ Julian Aguiar in the sixth inning, but Cincinnati answered with a six-run seventh, and won 8-4.
Buxton has gone 3-for-10 with two strikeouts and four RBI since returning. Against the Reds he drove in the first run in Saturday’s game on an infield single off Nick Martinez, but Cincinnati scored nine runs in the fourth, prompting the exits of both Buxton and Correa in what ended up an 11-1 route and included a mop-up pitching appearance by infielder Kyle Farmer. The pair returned on Monday against the Guardians, with Buxton driving in two runs with a single that deflected off the glove of pitcher Matthew Boyd.
“I know it’s not 100 percent, but it’s good enough for me to go out there and compete and battle,” Buxton said on Saturday. “I know I can go out there and help the team and contribute in any possible way. It’s just one of those things where you look at where you’re at and you push through things sometimes.”
The Twins will take what they can get from Buxton, because when he’s been available, he’s been outstanding. In 93 games — his highest total since 2017, believe it or not — he’s hit .276/.333/.530 with 17 homers and a 141 wRC+; those last two figures both rank third on the team. Coming off his worst season at the plate since 2017, he’s taken a particularly aggressive approach this year, swinging at 54.3% of pitches, his highest full-season rate, and chasing 33.9% out of the zone, his highest full-season mark since ’18. (He did have higher rates in 2020, albeit in just 39 games.) Buxton’s 5.2% walk rate is just over half of what it was last year, but at the same time, he’s trimmed his strikeout rate from 31.4% to 26.4% while mashing the ball when he does make contact. On the defensive side, after taking a season off from playing center field in an attempt to keep him healthy, he’s played pretty well according to the metrics, with 4 FRV, 2 DRS, and -1.3 UZR.
Correa spent 13 days on the injured list last September due to plantar fasciitis in his left heel, though the problem first surfaced in May. He was able to play through it, but had by far his worst full season at the plate (.230/.312/.399, 96 wRC+) and a subpar one in the field, totaling just 1.8 WAR. This season, he played well enough in the first half to be named to the AL All-Star team for the first time since 2021, his last year as an Astro, but after collecting hits in 13 of 14 games from June 26 to July 12, he was again diagnosed with plantar fasciitis, this time in his right heel. Despite initial optimism that he wouldn’t miss much time, he dealt with setbacks as he rehabbed, and it was only after starting some unspecified new treatment in early September that his foot felt good enough for him to play.
Correa did not have the benefit of a rehab assignment before returning, instead testing his foot by running in front of the team’s training staff and taking live batting practice against minor league pitchers.
“We ran out of days. We just didn’t have enough days,” said Baldelli on Saturday. “We’re running out of days for the regular season, and he didn’t want to waste any more days. He just wanted to come back.”
Since returning, Correa has gone 2-for-7, doubling in both of his games and taking two walks on Monday night. He also struck out twice on Monday, including once with two on and one out in the sixth, losing an eight-pitch encounter with Erik Sabrowski, a rookie lefty making just his fifth major league appearance.
Stars like Buxton and Correa aren’t easy to replace, and the struggles of the players tasked with doing so have contributed to the team’s offensive woes. During Buxton’s absence, Twins center fielders hit a combined .229/.283/.314 (71 wRC+), with 25-year-old rookie utilityman Austin Martin doing a reasonable job offensively in about half of the playing time but showing that he has no business in the outfield (he has -13 DRS and -8 FRV in just 487 innings split between center and left), and Willi Castro, Manuel Margot, DaShawn Keirsey Jr., and Michael Helman failing to distinguish themselves. While Correa was out, Twins shortstops hit just .218/.284/.340 (77 wRC+), with switch-hitters Castro and Brooks Lee manning the post. The versatile 27-year-old Castro, who’s hit for a 108 wRC+ overall, held his own offensively but scuffled defensively at the position, while it was the other way around for Lee, a 23-year-old 50-FV prospect who’s hit for just a 68 wRC+ in 155 plate appearances this year. Lee did have a huge five-RBI game on Sunday as Correa sat, but has hit just .178/.178/.333 in 45 PA since being recalled in September.
The Twins have had plenty of other problems lately as well. Royce Lewis has spent 90 days on the IL this season due to quad and adductor strains; when Correa was activated, it marked just the 18th time this season that he, Buxton, and Lewis were all in the same lineup. Lewis has nonetheless hit just .226/.287/.403 (91 wRC+) in 178 PA since returning from the adductor strain in late July and has produced just a 45 wRC+ in 95 PA during the team’s month-long skid. Jose Miranda has a 57 wRC+ in 82 PA within the same span. Max Kepler has been out since September 2 due to patellar tendinitis, though he’s said to be nearing a return.
On the pitching side, the loss of Joe Ryan, who’s been out since August 7 due to a Grade 2 teres major strain, looms large, particularly because he’s on the 60-day IL and won’t be eligible to return until October 9; realistically, the Twins would have to reach the ALCS in order to roster him. Aside from Pablo López, whose 6 1/2-inning, two-run performance on Monday night was squandered by the bullpen, the other four members of the current rotation — David Festa, Zebby Matthews, Bailey Ober, and Simeon Woods Richardson — have each been lit for ERAs of 5.24 or higher over their last five turns dating back to August 18. On Monday, the team claimed Cole Irvin off waivers from the Orioles, but he hit the wire for a reason, having put up a 6.67 ERA and 5.69 FIP in 56 2/3 innings since the start of June. He’ll fit right in.
The bullpen hasn’t provided much relief, particularly given its major league-high 43% rate of allowing inherited runners to score. Over the past month, it’s been torched for a 5.47 ERA (4.09 FIP), some of which is distorted by a couple of bad Louie Varland outings (including one on Saturday), but setup man Jorge Alcala and closer Jhoan Duran have both been hammered as well. Duran has an odd 7.88 ERA/1.05 FIP pairing in eight innings during the aforementioned slide thanks to a .538 BABIP, and he’s been charged with four losses in that span.
With Buxton and Correa back in the lineup, our Playoff Odds still give the Twins better than a 75% chance of holding onto a Wild Card spot, but the Tigers (78-73) aren’t their only problem; the Mariners (77-73) are just two games back. If neither of Minnesota’s returning stars is able to play often enough or well enough, the Twins could make this race a bit too interesting for their tastes.
