On Monday, Citi reiterated a Neutral rating on Constellation Energy (NASDAQ:CEG) with a steady price target of $284. The commentary from the firm pointed to recent developments indicating challenges for the company’s nuclear fleet in executing future co-located deals with datacenters.
This observation comes in the wake of a workshop by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and the rejection of the Talen deal, which the analyst believes complicates Constellation’s strategy.
The stock experienced a selloff that the analyst suggests reflects a market adjustment in expectations, from approximately 7.7 gigawatts (GW) to about 4.7 GW in co-location deals with datacenters. The decrease in expected co-location deals follows the FERC’s actions, which seem to prioritize the development of datacenters while also ensuring public reliability.
Despite the challenges, there is an anticipation that FERC, Independent System Operators (ISOs), and Constellation Energy will collaborate to find solutions that balance the rapid development of datacenters with the public’s need for reliable energy. This collaboration aims to address the issues raised during the FERC workshop and improve the prospects for datacenter projects associated with Constellation’s nuclear fleet.
In the interim, the decrease in Constellation Energy’s stock price may heighten the appeal of potential share buybacks, which could exceed $1.8 billion. Additionally, Constellation has demonstrated robust operating performance, which has led to an upward revision of the midpoint of its 2024 guidance. This suggests that despite the setbacks in co-location deals, the company’s core business performance remains strong.
In other recent news, Constellation Energy, a leading producer of clean energy in the United States, has announced a quarterly dividend of $0.3525 per share, demonstrating a stable financial position and confidence in its business model. The company also reported strong second-quarter results, including GAAP earnings of $2.58 per share and adjusted operating earnings of $1.68 per share. Constellation Energy has raised its full-year adjusted operating earnings guidance to a range of $7.60 to $8.40 per share.
The company has also been the recipient of several analyst upgrades and downgrades. JPMorgan initiated coverage with an Overweight rating, citing strong growth prospects supported by nuclear production tax credits. However, Citi placed Constellation Energy on their 90-Day Downside Catalyst Watch list, expressing concerns over potential negative impacts from upcoming events and company updates.
In addition, Constellation Energy has secured a power purchase agreement with Microsoft (NASDAQ:) and restarted the Three Mile Island nuclear facility. These developments are expected to contribute significantly to the company’s earnings per share in its first full year of operation and boost the company’s base earnings growth from the previously expected 10% to 13% over the period from 2024 to 2030.
InvestingPro Insights
Recent InvestingPro data provides additional context to Constellation Energy’s (NASDAQ:CEG) current position. Despite the challenges highlighted in the article, CEG’s financial metrics reveal some positive aspects. The company’s market capitalization stands at $80.71 billion, reflecting its significant presence in the energy sector.
CEG has demonstrated strong revenue performance, with $23.54 billion in the last twelve months as of Q2 2024. While the company experienced a 10.8% revenue decline over this period, it’s worth noting that quarterly revenue growth in Q2 2024 was positive at 0.53%, indicating a potential turnaround.
An InvestingPro Tip suggests that CEG’s earnings per share are forecast to grow significantly this year, which aligns with the article’s mention of robust operating performance and upward revision of 2024 guidance. Another InvestingPro Tip highlights that CEG has raised its dividend for 2 consecutive years, with a current dividend yield of 0.55% and impressive dividend growth of 25% in the last twelve months.
These insights complement the article’s discussion on potential share buybacks and the company’s strong core business performance. For investors interested in a deeper analysis, InvestingPro offers 15 additional tips for Constellation Energy, providing a more comprehensive view of the company’s prospects.
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