Nothing like a good Memorial Day week check in. Thanks to all who served, and let’s just get to the content.
MVP: Alec Bohm. Based on where he was drafted and his top 5 player status, this guy has been a fantasy owner’s dream. I’m sure you all who have drafted him have regaled your league mates with stories about your fantasy bravado. He’s the kind of breakout that you play the game to try to find and rarely do. Wait, you guys do? Well, I rarely do anyway. Congrats and as you’ll see below I’ve bought in.
Most Fun: Elly De La Cruz. The speed. The arm. The power. The dreads. It’s all here. Not much more fun in this silly game than getting an MLB notification and watching him do something crazy. He’s quite loveable.
Most Boring: Sorry, Pete Alonso, I’m over it. I’ve never enjoyed watching him hit. Going to probably never own him again to avoid that pesky decline phase. He’s not currently on pace for 100 R or RBI, the batting average is below league average (but not crippling to be fair), and the team is bad. He may get traded, but that’s a crapshoot. It’s just time for me to start ignoring Pete.
Look Out, a Cliff: Paul Goldschmidt. It comes for everyone, that old age thing. It’s here for Goldie and I’m okay if you cut him. There’s no underlying stat, or even regular stat, that suggests he’s going to break out of this at age 36. Don’t be sad it’s over, be happy it happened like Dr. Suess suggested.
StatCast All Star: Christopher Morel. The guy is a huge discrepancy between Avg and xAvg, SLG and xSlg, and literally every metric says he should be doing better than he is. However, we don’t get expected stats. He’s such a hard player to get a handle on. If you look at Statcast, he looks like an elite player, but I don’t think all this is predictive It’s not meant to be predictive though, and possibly Morel has wasted his hot streak on some bad luck. Or maybe these stats don’t paint a full picture
Mirage: Josh Naylor is not going to be a top 20 player this season. He had a hot start and is now in a cold snap. Solid player, I know I talked him up, but he’s been ice cold the past month even with 6 HR. Um, Josh, how about a single here and there? Like, get excited, but I’m still in wait and see mode here.
Flop: Yandy Diaz. Remember that one month where he showed power last year? Yes? Well, even when that dried up at least he was hitting for average. Now that that’s declined, Yandy is borderline waiver fodder. An average average makes Yandy below average.
And now for some updated ranks for you guys to nitpick! Seriously, do it, it helps me as a writer. I don’t always fully think anything through, let alone fantasy articles.
Notes on the process: I looked at the Razzball player rater here and also here. If you click on them, they should take you to the player rater for each position at the current time. I then looked at the rest of season rankings in this wonderful little link. Now note, this is only the first base projections; I want you to learn how to do the 3b on your own. These are all free tools also, the advanced tools are even better and worth the investment.
Of course, I had to put my own few two cents in these or else there would be no reason to read it! I’ll explain them below each little tier.
Top Guys: I Love Owning You In a Fantasy Way. I Look at Your Player Card with Adoration.
1. Bryce Harper: Already ranked 1 at first base and still hasn’t hit his hot streak yet. Guy gets scorching hot every season and it’s going to be as glorious as his hair flip or prom proposals
2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: What happens when you are in an early season slump and then bust out? What happens if your underlying metrics are all Statcast red? You put up this last 30 days of a .327 AVG. Now wait until the power clicks in, which of course it will. I’m still all aboard the Vlad hype wagon.
3. Freddie Freeman: No, he’s not been elite. But a .284 in this season’s context is fine, I think the power will possibly not be there though. It might be a 20 HR season for Frederick. But with the 100 R and RBI just by breathing in the middle of this lineup, don’t worry and just be happy to have him.
4. Jose Ramirez: I’m reluctant to put him here but can’t ignore how valuable his steals and RBI are. OBP leagues he’s moved down to much lower, but I can’t ignore this superstar.
5. Gunnar Henderson: What a great breakout for Gunnar. He’s a future first round pick possibly as soon as next year. I probably will fade him due to something dumb like “downside risk” or something but someone will take him there. Honestly could make a case to put him 2.
6. Alec Bohm: Hey, a 1b/3B combo! Give me all the batting average and R and RBI here. Power, schmower, he’s this year’s big breakout.
7. Matt Olson: He’s already showing a few signs and Atlanta will get going at some point. Don’t forget he had 50 HR with a .283 average. Keep the faith, I think, at least for the power. I’m not sure the final numbers get him over .250 but the rest of the stats will be there.
8. Rafael Devers: I value long term performance highly, obviously.
9. Elly De La Cruz: Obviously huge for the steals, but my general philosophy is to rank them lower than elite rates in other stats. You do you. I”m guessing the end line is something like .245 with 30 HR and 80 steals unless he hurts anything in his leg, then that slows down
Tier 2:
10. Austin Riley: Tier 1 if he comes back healthy. No worries about a slow start, he did that last year too. And just came back yesterday after that weird 14 day non IL absence.
11. Jordan Westburg: Huge climber. Had him in the “to watch” category and already great.
12. Christian Walker: Time to give him credit for the consistent contributor he’s been for years. Christian Walker is a darn good fantasy asset.
13. Pete Alonso: above
14. Cody Bellinger: He’s actually not hitting terribly, his lineup is bottom five in the league since he got back from injury and there are no R and RBI chances. See, sometimes the context thing really does matter. I eagerly await his hot streak. Showing signs already going 5 for his last 13. Keep the faith here.
15. Josh Naylor: above
16. Vinnie Pasquantino: Just like I thought, slow start but will continue to heat up after the shoulder costing him a season.
17. Anthony Rizzo: Better than you think and will have RBI chances all season
18. Luis Arraez: Not 1B everywhere. Kid is tearing up SD though for batting average and nothing else. I’m gonna call him Junk Food because he’s empty calories except one thing.
Tier 3: Now the Questions Start
19. Manny Machado: Should heat up with the elbow health improving. Elbows help your arm bend and extend!
20. Maikel Garcia: Can the bat sustain?
21. Isaac Paredes: Where did that batting average come from? If he keeps it up he’s moving up, thank you, thank you, here all week with that crack analysis. I’m like Walter White up in here, that pure.
22. Max Muncy
23. Ryan Mountcastle
24. Jake Cronenworth
25. Christopher Morel: see above
26. Spencer Steer: He’s my test case for value and if I haven’t adjusted enough for the current environment. He’s a negative in batting average according to the player rater, but positive everywhere else. Maybe I’m underrating him. I could have much egg on my face here.
Tier 4: I’ll Do it but I Don’t Have to Like it
27. Michael Busch: Or, he could end up in the AAA setting if he doesn’t cut that 40% K rate down like pronto.
28. Luis Rengifo
29. Alex Bregman: Worst contract year drive in a while?
30. Yandy Diaz: above
31. Nolan Arenado: Slow bat speed plus long swing=cooked ballplayer.
32. Matt Chapman: you just missed his hot streak.
33. Rhys Hoskins
34. Ryan McMahahon: For some reason, I doubt this is the breakout we’ve been waiting for six years for
Tier 5: I Guess?
35. Paul Goldschmidt: above
36. Nate Lowe
37. Jeimer Candelario
Injured: I like all of these guys, they’re a hold if you have the room, and if you don’t you’re probably keeping the wrong people. Last I heard, Casas is about to swing a bat again and plans to return June 21. Josh Jung is doing baseball activities, hopefully ones on the field not eating sunflower seeds. My Rangers guy says he’s playing catch and fielding grounders. Hopefully, the swinging comes since it’s a risk with the wrist.
38. Triston Casas
39. Josh Jung
40. Christian Encarnancion-Strand
Royce Lewis should be back but a guy with leg injuries tried to steal a base in his rehab assignment which just seems to lack common sense, so he’s punished by missing the ranks.
Actions have consequences Royce.
I also didn’t rank Salvador Perez because if you aren’t starting him at C you are in a no C league.
