Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 11/14/24

Billy Butler Did It: What is a realistic move the Royals could make to upgrade the offense?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t see a reason the Royals COULDNT go after Santander. Or at least Joc Pederson

Dan Szymborski: and welcome to SzymChat! With me finally done the ZiPS prep and it rolling out, chats are back

Brad M: Are we staring down a lockout in 2027? Missed games?

Dan Szymborski: Sadly, I do not expect a clean CBA agreement and I think it’s more likely than not that we miss games

Billy Butler Did It: What 1980s player would you be most interested in seeing how he would do playing today?

Dan Szymborski: I kinda want to see what young Rickey would do with EASIER stolen base rules

Kyle: just take a gander…which team does The Generational Juan Soto sign with?

Dan Szymborski: I’m gonna say Blue Jays. They’re probably a bit sore after losing the LAST big fish at the last moment and where the team is, they either need to PUSH their chips or start over.

Bruno: Probably random but…the premier12 baseball tournament has been good!

Billy Butler Did It: Dave Szymborski update?

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t had much Dave Szymborski stuff lately. There was some Donald Szymborski spam about three months ago but haven’t seen much since (or Gmail is filtering it better)

Dan Szymborski: I *do* seem to have gotten onto the VMI Alumni email list and I’m pretty sure a D___ Szymborski has to be responsible. After all, I think I’d remember relocating to Virginia and Jesuits and military guys dress very differently

Dan Szymborski: And I was *never* in shape enough or neat enough or disciplined enough or many other things to have been in a military academy!

Taryn: Let’s assume the Yanks sign Soto…what other players do they go after? Trade for Josh Naylor?

Dan Szymborski: I could see them go after Alex Bregman

Roki: Why haven’t I already signed with the Dodgers? Let’s not waste everyone’s time

Dan Szymborski: I th ink there’s a whole process!

Billy Butler Did It: Thinking of making a BLT for lunch. Do you do anything special aside from the three eponymous ingredients? (Avocado is a no go due to ripeness).

Dan Szymborski: I don’t care for even nice lettuce with bacon for some reason

Dan Szymborski: I’m having a reuben variant right now. Gruyere and since the grocery store only sold Russian dressing in boxes of like 10, I had to dump the bottle of Thousand Island in the blender and doctor it up (horseradish, smoked paprika, pickled garlic)

Williams: Are we looking at expansion once the new CBA is signed in 2 years?

Dan Szymborski: I think no

Dan Szymborski: There are still a couple of blackmail stadiums to get out of venal, cowardly politicians

Norm: Tigers desperately need a RH bat with power. Who would you be targeting if you were Scott Harris?

Dan Szymborski: switch-hitting Santander probably. There aren’t a whole ton of OFs to choose from

Nervous Flyball Pitcher: Do FIP and xFIP “hold up” in the minors? My understanding is that DIPS depends on pitchers living in a narrow band of contact suppression. Hard to imagine that being the case in the minors, especially below AA.

Dan Szymborski: As you go down, it holds up less and less. It still MOSTLY holds up in the high minors, as you imagine

Dan Szymborski: When we talk about things like FIP, we’re talking at the very elite level of play. In the elite group of everything, there aer going to be characteristics present that aren’t in a non-elite group

Dan Szymborski: If you’re using FIP for your little league team, you’re probably a dumbass and doing more harm to the kids than good

Billy Butler Did It: Are projection systems more accurate now than they were 15 years ago? If so, how much has statcast and similar data played a role in the improvement?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS is, though you’re not going to get groundbreaking changes

Dan Szymborski: Especially when you talk just that bottom line middle number

Scotty: Danny Zips! What does ZIPs think is a fair deal for Soto? Does it eclipse the $600 million mark?

Dan Szymborski: Last I checked, ZiPS thought 13/620

Billy Butler Did It: The worst current GM in baseball gets transported back to the 1977 to run the expansion Seattle Mariners. How quickly could he turn that terrible team into a winner?

Dan Szymborski: There still are a couple pretty lousy GMs

Dan Szymborski: And even ones that aren’t lousy by saddled by lousy ownership, I don’t think the Mariners ownership in 1977 gets better too

Chase: Need some hope as an Angels fan. Feels like the offseason from a few years ago (depth moves like Drury, Urshela, etc.), nothing we can do makes us a playoff team but I’d even take some more moves to get to .500

Dan Szymborski: Honestly, I don’t have a lot of hope to offer

Dan Szymborski: No doubt it’s in a large part the sub-mediocre ownership, but the Angels just tend do a whole bunch of Whatever

Marcel S: If the Marlins were to make a “big” move this offseason, what do you think that would look like?

Dan Szymborski: If they’re feeling really aggressive financially, they might let the front office get pizza oN Fridays

Devil Ray Jay Johnson: The Rays just announced they will play in Tampa at the Yankees spring training park in 2025. Was this the best of not many great options?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure what other choices they really had. I think even politicians would balk if teams started demanding two stadiums: one to play in and one backup stadium

SPArn: There’s smoke on the Nationals being in on anyone from Bregman, to Flaherty, to Walker, to Santander. Do you see them making their “Werth splash” this offseason? And if so, what avenue do you think they pursue?

Dan Szymborski: I honestly don’t think they do anything truly interesting

Lalalalasagna: How does ZIPS see Gerrit Cole’s performance maintaining as he ages given this last season worth of data?

Dan Szymborski: Decently well

mmddyyyy: Do you think any pitchers are getting away with foreign substances?

Dan Szymborski: pitchers ALWAYS are

mmddyyyy: Would an expansion city prefer their team in the NL or AL?

Dan Szymborski: It depends on the city

Dan Szymborski: Like I think Portland might prefer to be in the AL West but some NC team probably would prefer the NL East

Lalalalasagna: Any weird park effects for the A’s in the new stadium?

Dan Szymborski: I’m GUESSING its around neutral. Sutter Health is basically one of the few non-crazy PCL fields

Dan Szymborski: at least among the old school PCL teams

mmddyyyy: Which pitch was invented most recently?

Dan Szymborski: Depends what you deem to be INVENTED? Sweeper is invented as a discrete term, but the pitch already existed

Dan Szymborski: maybe the circle change? I think Roger Craig invented the pitch

Okra: Any chance the depth charts playing time allocations can be updated to be more realistic?  They are currently very optimistic on player health.  I think a 50/50 over/under style assumption would be more helpful.

Dan Szymborski: That’s nto really my call!

Devil Ray Jay Johnson: re CBA. I am not sure either side has the stomach to make any fundamental changes after the last go round. It seems like much of the players’ agenda could be met by another healthy increase in the minimum salary and bonus pools, while the owners do not have to give anything up except essentially a cost of living plus adjustment.

Billy Butler Did It: Thanks for the great tip on homemade Russian dressing. It has become as rare as French dressing at the grocery store.

BC26: Would you be willing to give Burnes a seven-year contract?

Dan Szymborski: Sure

Phil Risotto: Would you take the Dodgers over the field to sign Sasaki?

Dan Szymborski: Truth is, I don’t have any particular insight into Sasaki’s desires

Guest: How much do you think this past post season will affect Judge’s legacy?

Dan Szymborski: Not much.

Dan Szymborski: Long-term, “bad in postseason” is only brought up in career discussions when writers hate a guy

Dan Szymborski: Barry Bonds WORST POSTSEASON CHOKER EVER was the storyline until 2002/2003 and everyone forgot about it

Billy Butler Did It: In the 1980s military academy movie, the Dan Szymborski character gets out of physical training and other perks as the Commandant’s right-hand guy for AV and technology, but also runs the black market for contraband and wires a homemade radio that gets all the ballgames.

Billy Butler Did It: But wouldn’t just understanding OBP while your league rivals bat a fast .285 OBP guy leadoff get you at least into the playoffs?

Dan Szymborski: It would certainly HELP

Dan Szymborski: but it’s hard building talent with a new team!

mcgraw45: Shower thoughts this morning: How about a contract full of player options to lower AAV? I’m thinking 5 years for Yates, player option after each year, $8M first year, $2M every year after = $3.2M AAV, player basically gets optional contract deferrals and team gets an artificially low AAV.

Dan Szymborski: Under determination of salary in the CBA, there’s a lot of language to avoid shenanigans like this

Dan Szymborski: there are ways to massage it, but there are limits

Dan Szymborski: and if someone finds too blatant a loophole, the commissioner has the authority to refuse to allow the contract

ppenayr: Alonso to the Pirates? Whats a reasonable player they could look at with word from ownership “theyre willing to spend”

Dan Szymborski: Lord, I’d hope note for the Pirates sake

Dan Szymborski: not

Dan Szymborski: The Mets at least have the excuse that he’s been their guy to overpay him. If a small market owner allows their GM to give $200 million to Alonso, that may be the last big contract that owner ever OKs

Guest: Odds Vientos just had his career season?  Also, does ZiPS think he’s a viable defensive 3B for much longer (or even now)?

Dan Szymborski: Pretty decent, at least on a rate standpoint. People VASTLY underrate the probability that a player simply peaks in their early to mid 20s

Lalalalasagna: Does Tampa have similar dimensions to YS3 (spacious center, short right, etc)? If so, ZIPS projections for Rays will essentially account for them playing half their games in Yankee Stadium?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t actually know the Steinbrenner Field dimensions off-hand

Dan Szymborski: I just realized like 10 minutes before this chat that I would have to do that

Talfred: Was Bill North the worst postseason player?

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t checked lately if anyone passed them, but as of a couple years ago, Reggie Sanders had the worst career WPA among hitters and Ed Summers among pitchers

Dan Szymborski: One of my favorite factoids is that Babe Ruth has more career postseason WPA as a pitcher than a hitter

BeefLoaf108: Dan, what will stop you from making fun of my White Sox so damn much?

Dan Szymborski: Competence?

Dan Szymborski: If the White Sox are good, they get these AIs:

Dan Szymborski: But if they’re not, they get these:

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: I’ll throw this in just because

Dan Szymborski:

Marcus Lepidus: Would the Yankees look at Arenado as a trade target? I don’t think he fits in St. Louis anymore.

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure they’d be interested

Syndergaardengnomes: Re: Transporting a current GM back to 1977 Seattle, biggest problem you’re going to have (outside of physics), is the lack of free agents to chose from those first few years.  You didn’t have 200 guys going FA every year, and the best ones (Gossage, Rose), you didn’t need to be a time traveler to know they were good…

Billy Butler Did It: Sadly, the Dan Szymborski character is also the first one killed when the terrorists take over the school and he tries to radio for help.

12 to 6: that the dodgers landing both sasaki and (less likely, but still entirely plausible) soto is realistic is wild.  

making the assumption such occurs, permitting flaherty and hernandez and (possibly, though i think he resigns on a pillow contract)  buehler to leave would result in an approximate 40mm delta on salary, so adding soto at ~47.5mm and sasaki on the posting process would result in somewhere around a 10mm increase in salary, a lot of which could conceptually be obviated if the dodgers could float the 17mm remaining on chris taylor’s contract somewhere by attaching a couple of middle prospects to it.

Brad M: You think MLB would miss regular season games or just spring training games due to a work stoppage?

Dan Szymborski: It’s hard to say. I’m not optimistic

Dan Szymborski: Though one can say that to an extent, the last lockout showed the players lacked a real stomach for an impactful work stoppage

Dan Szymborski: Because fundamentally, for players to make gains, you’re going to have some guys willing to make big sacrifices. Time always favors the owners, not the players.

mmddyyyy: Does the union have any input on players doing the less traditional media stuff like on field/in game interviews?

Dan Szymborski: A lot of this stuff is in the CBA including BBWAA rules

Jackson: Do you see the Angels signing a legit pitcher to a multi-year deal this offseason? If so, who?

Dan Szymborski: Legit as in excellent? No

Todd Bonzalez: What tasks will Burnes be assigned for the seven years he’s in contract with Dan Szymborski?

Dan Szymborski: He’s going to have to brainstorm wher eI’m going to come up with $220 million

mmddyyyy: Are the owners friends?

Dan Szymborski: It depends

Talfred: Red Sox fans lament that Yoshida isn’t a good fit for their roster and should be traded. Isn’t he a poor fit for anyone’s roster as a slap-hitting DH at $18MM per? Seems like he’s a hard player to find room for.

Dan Szymborski: Honestly, his line-drivey skillset makes Fenway likely one of his best places

Lalalalasagna: How would you handle the Orioles offseason?

Dan Szymborski: Depends on what my constraints are from ownership salary wise

Dan Szymborski: investing in a free agent is a lot bigger a deal than buying rounds for excited fans at Pickles

Dan Szymborski: I do think that the O’s don’t get a top grade this offseason if they don’t end up with an ace-type pitcher at the top who isn’t currently under contract

Colton: Without getting into the details, could you give us the most surprising projection ZiPS gave you?

Dan Szymborski: A little too soon as I haven’t personally reviewed all 4000!

Matt VW: I know that in general it ‘s smarter to evaluate a player with ballpark context stripped out. But if you were running a team, would you ever be tempted by a player whose particular pluses and minuses would play up in your stadium?

Dan Szymborski: I would, but it would have to be an edge case

Dan Szymborski: Like a BIG L/R park factor thing

Phil Risotto: AL West and East teams will play about 12% of their games in minor league stadiums because of the Rays and Athletics. UGH

James: Odds that the Rays play in Tropicana again?

Dan Szymborski: Oh, I think they do, though there’s going to be a lot of fighting between the team, government, feds, and insurance

Reece G: Another lockout? Missed games?! Baseball would destroy itself….its barely hanging on in the national mind as is with only like 6 relevant teams. MLB is already behind the NFL & NBA…missing regular season games would be disastrous.

Dan Szymborski: A late start is probalby a lot less damaging than a midseason loss

Dan Szymborski: I doubt most wavering fans who aren’t hardcore will care THAT much if they lose an April one year

Bubba: What’s the point of doing team by team ZIPS projection artcles before any major signings/trades happened?

Dan Szymborski: They’re not explicitly 2025 previews

Dan Szymborski: And talking about WHERE a team currently is always have value

Dan Szymborski: has

mmddyyyy: Does an MLB org have more player or non-player employees?

Dan Szymborski: non-player

Cat Latos: What do my cat friends do?

Dan Szymborski: Some leaves blew buy, so Justinian is pondering on my office windowsill

Dan Szymborski: I heard Constantine on the stairs playing with this stupid toy that looks like a drinking straw that came in their meowbox (I know it’s him because Cassie doesn’t like that toy and Mercutio won’t wear a collar so has no jingle)

Dan Szymborski: Last I saw Cassie she was asleep in the top shelf of the cat tree in the back room upstairs and Mercutio sleeping on top of a pillow on the living room couch

Bill Lumbergh: What was your biggest change to the ZiPs formula this year?

Dan Szymborski: Nothing massive, I talk abuot ZiPS in the intro!

Dan Szymborski: On that note, I have another ZiPS team to finish for tomorrow, so it’s time for me to head out for another week!

Dan Szymborski: thanks for coming everyone