Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 9/26/24

Dan Szymborski: It’s a chat!

No longer a Ms fan: Does ZIPs think the Seattle Mariners should disband as a baseball team? What a disappointment they are.

Dan Szymborski: If the White Sox get to stay together, the M’s certainly do

Dan Szymborski: Maybe they should bring back the trident logo as primary

Chooch: Do you have an opinion on home/away splits for starters? I’m not trying to say he hasn’t pitched well this year, but the Phillies seem to be entertaining the idea of throwing Sanchez game 2 to get him a home start.

Does that enter your calculus going into a series; how would you go about planning your starters in the playoffs?

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t found that much value on it

Dan Szymborski: There’s *some* on player type, but it’s small, and the home/away splits for individuals don’t really mean much

Ben Lovelien: Who’s your “unlikely hero” this postseason? Someone who will just go on a tear out of nowhere.

Dan Szymborski: Probably a Royal because fate conspires to get their fans mad at me

Jackson Holliday: Are the O’s getting healthy and peaking at the right time? Will I be platooned only in the playoffs? Is Dean Kremer a good enough playoffs #3 starter?

Dan Szymborski: I woudln’t say they’re healthy now that Gryason Rodriguez is confirmed out!

tree: which projection system has been more accurate in the past, steamer or zips?

Dan Szymborski: Roughly similar. Depends on what you look at.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think there are many more gains to eke out in median proejctions, so most of the work has been focused on other things

Thank you for the chat!: If Trout wanted to move teams (and positions), where does he fit?

Dan Szymborski: DH! Most places

Hofheinz: Have you ever looked into different profiles of players decline differently as they age? I feel like I’ve heard players whose skill set is based on speed and athleticism decline more quickly than someone whose game is more focused on plate discipline or eye. But is that actually borne out?

Dan Szymborski: The “old player skills” vs. “young player skills” difference has some merit, but people take it as TOO determinative

Thank you for the chat!: How bad will the White Sox be next year? They’re likely to trade away performer and not make major splashes. Is it possible we see a repeat of historical failure or more likely simple randomness of baseball increases their win total?

Dan Szymborski: They’ll probably be better. They needed a have a lot go poorly EVEN for such a lousy roster, to be this lousy

Dave: In the playoff equipped teams article you mentioned Skubal being top of the 2025 WAR leaderboard. Are updated ZiPS leaderboards for future seasons publicly available anywhere? (As an aside, quite the jump for Skubal who started the year with the 42nd highest 2025 projected WAR)

Dan Szymborski: Some of that is IP – ZiPS only had him at 103 2/3 innings

Dan Szymborski: While it’s projecting 169 2/3 now

Dan Szymborski: I dont’ make those available. You’ll have to wait for the 2025 rundowns!

Idiotic Failson: Assuming the Yankees sign Soto, what do you think they do with 3B next year? They can’t keep trying to just hope the Platonic idea of DJ LeMahieu can give them any real number of games next year, and there’s nothing really in the farm. Any chance they sign Bregman?

Dan Szymborski: I actually mentally have them down as a likely Bregman home

Thank you for the chat!: Who are the top trade targets in the offseason for 1B/2B/3B?

Dan Szymborski: I could see the O’s trading Mountcastle

Dan Szymborski: and I think Hoerner could be avialable given the config of the Cubs roster

Dan Szymborski: SOMEONE would be interested in India I think

Jeremy: Do you still enjoy using and refining ZiPs? Or has it become less fun over the years, as the low-hanging fruit of forecasting has all been picked, making it much harder to improve ZiPs?

Dan Szymborski: I do still enjoy it

Dan Szymborski: There’s always tinkering with the things it can do and model

Dan Szymborski: Like adding JAWS to the model last year

Dan Szymborski: and I’m still working on neural network approaches to saves

A’s Daze: On my way to the last Coliseum game. Anything you want me to tell Mr. F?

Dan Szymborski: Nothing printable

11 fWAR: So. You’ve never had to project a guy with more than one 11 fWAR season aside from Bonds. What is the most unlikely thing: that Judge did it once, that he did it AGAIN once he did it once, or that he not continue being very very good?

Dan Szymborski: It’s extremely unlikely he’ll stop being very very good in the near future

Dan Szymborski: The risk profile is one-sided though for any ultra-elite star

Dan Szymborski: so don’t count on a 10 war projection!

O’s Woes: Who pitches game 3 now that Grayson ain’t coming back?

Dan Szymborski: Kremer. I have a soft spot for Kremer, but I like him as a mid-rotation inning guy, not as someone you match up with in the playoffs

Worried Yanks Fan: How big a deal is if for them to lose Nestor Cortes? He seemed way more likely to be an effective bulk bullpen guy than Stroman

Dan Szymborski: I dont’ think it’ smassive

willy adames: Where do you think Willy Adames signs this winter? and what’s the contract looking like?

Dan Szymborski: Don’t know where, but he’ll do well!

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS thinks 7/185

#1MetsFan: Pretty annoyed about the scheduling for the Mets. But what a season. Thanks for all the chats Dan

Dan Szymborski: My worrisome thing about the Mets is they haven’t had their moment of hilarious tragedy

Dan Szymborski: hilaredy?

Dan Szymborski: traglarious?

Dan Szymborski: They needed to get it out of the way earlier in the season

Dan Szymborski: Like if it turned out that Jeff McNeil was secretly running a prostitution ring that consisted entirely of middled-aged mimes, that would have been a Mets Story, and they’d win the World Series.

Smitty*: Who was your favorite troll from baseballprimer and why is it me?

Dan Szymborski: Bearded Wizard

Smitty*: Do you know how ZIPS will handle park factors for A’s players next season?

Dan Szymborski: Poorly, I imagine?

Champdo: Chances Jobe starts next season in the Tigers rotation?

Dan Szymborski: Pretty good I think

Guest: I have watched lots of promising prospects struggle but Jackson Holliday’s struggles strike me as extreme for such a highly touted player. Do you see a light at the end of this tunnel?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

#1MetsFan: And whats for lunch?

Dan Szymborski: Today’s not a food day

mmddyyyy: Will expansion come as 2 teams at once?

Dan Szymborski: If it does, I can’t imagine they’ll expand to 31 teams

Hofheinz: If you could only sign one long term, would it be Framber Valdez or Alex Bregman?

Dan Szymborski: Valdez

Dan Szymborski: Did anyone have trouble getting in here? Readership is about 1/4 of the usual. I can’t imagine I did anything THIS week to alienate 3/4 of my readership

O’s Woes: Please tell me the announcement about Grayson Rodriguez is a bait and switch so the guardians aren’t ready to face him in the playoffs

Joe: How are the World Series odds calculated? The Orioles, for example, have a 6% chance after having made the playoffs, but the Dbacks are at 5% but only at 60% chance of making the playoffs.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t actually run that part!

Josh: What do you (and ZiPS) think of Landon Knack? Both for the playoffs and for the next couple of years. Is he a mid-rotation guy?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS sees him as 3/4 startery, and I can’t really quibble with it

Idiotic Failson: If there was a WAR equivalent for owners, what would it be and where would Fisher and Reinsdorf rate?

Dan Szymborski: a replacement level owner is REALLY bad though

>this guy<: Dan, does ZiPS like any of the baby Cubs in the top 100 as far as project to contribute in ’25 if they get ABs?

Dan Szymborski: Shaw

Dan Szymborski: Worse projection of course, but ZiPS is kinda fascinated with Ben Cowles

Steven: Do you think Judge will end up as a top 50 player all time?

Dan Szymborski: Peak? He’s arguably already there

Dan Szymborski: He only needs 20 something WAR to crack top 50 for hitters iN WAR though, which is certainly possible

Dan Szymborski: top 50 for everyone is like 80 war? ZiPS thinks he has like 30 left, which woudl get him right about there

mmddyyyy: If they wanted to add another level to the minors, what level would be most useful?

Dan Szymborski: Probalby a lower level

statsNOOB: In your last chat someone asked what zIPS is exactly and I think you called it a bunch of non-parametric models stitched together. Have you ever written anything more technical/academic about your models? Are there any resources you’d suggest to someone interested in learning more about that kind of modeling?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t really do technical writing because, to be perfectly honest, I find it kind of boring. You’ll probably never see a formal research paper from me

Dan Szymborski: there’s a max kuhn book I’d recommend but I don’t remember hte name at the moment, just search modeling and kuhn

Dan Szymborski: Start with a better programming base than I did

Dan Szymborski: I’m not a coder, so while the model is *good* and *detailed* it’s nowhere near as *efficient* as it could be

mmddyyyy: Do players drive to the ballpark?

Dan Szymborski: Quite frequently yes

Altuve: What is Altuve’s 50th percentile rest of career hit total?

Dan Szymborski: as of last week, 651

TKDC: Should the Braves save Sale/Fried for a potential game 162 against the Mets that could convert to game 1 of WC if they don’t need the win?

Dan Szymborski: I would

Smiling Politely: Aside from CHW’s loss total, what season result(s) has/have surprised you the most or was most unlikely?

Dan Szymborski: The Blue Jays beign THIS bad

Dan Szymborski: roster-wise, they seemed to be one of the less volatile teams

mmddyyyy: Do pitchers still have personal catchers?

Dan Szymborski: Some do

Sirras: How can I blame Manfred for the weather down south? Because I’d really like to!

Dan Szymborski: Manfred would never want a round of golf to be imperiled

Guest: not your fault dan, just a bunch of fantasy seasons over and the playoff races not as dramatic as they could be

Food comparison: who is the “chicken nugget” of MLB? Consistent, relatively high floor but not much upside. Additionally, who is the smoked brisket? Unlimited upside but super low floor.

Dan Szymborski: I’d have actually said the Jays, but the floor was lower than I thought

Dan Szymborski: I still think Jordan Walker has a real upside

Dan Szymborski: but the floor is non-existent. He’s basically collapsed to the molten core

Silly head: I’ve noticed recently that most of the best defensive catcher seasons (in terms of defensive runs) took place from about 2008-2013, which is when framing data became available IIRC. Were McCann, Lucroy, and others really THAT good at framing or did they simply focus on that aspect of catching when maybe not every team had quite caught on yet?

Dan Szymborski: I think there’s evidence that umpires being more aware of framing has tightened up their calling a bit

Sirras: Thank you, tip your server well and try the eggplant!

Dan Szymborski: I don’t really care for eggplant. It feels smushier than it should

Dan Szymborski: Except for broccoli/cauliflower which have a smell that physically sickens me, most of my food dislikes are texture/mouthfeel

Dan Szymborski: Like I don’t like eating straight avocado because if feels meatier in my mouth than it should

Yainer Diaz: How might my offensive projections change if I moved more regularlh to 1B or DH? Am I a special bat held back by the rigors of catching or a special bat for a catcher?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure SPECIAL, but there is something there about moving guys off catcher

Sirras: Re: Chicken nuggets – for a few years, Khris Davis was that guy

Smiling Politely: Austin Barnes has probably caught 80%+ of Kershaw’s starts

Dan Szymborski: What’s the Grimace referencing?

Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: If the White Sox win out I will blend up a can of skyline chili and chug it

Sirras: Re: eggplant – you skipped the awful joke before the “tip your waiter” bit! Ah well, I’ll have to be funnier next time

Trout: I know it seems absolutely absurd but is it possible Judge catches Trout in WAR by the end? I just don’t see Trout staying on the field at all.

Dan Szymborski: It’s certainly *possible* if Trout’s physical breakdown isn’t ameliorated by a lesser defensive schedule

Dan Szymborski: He’s like 30-something behind in WAR

Dan Szymborski: and ZiPS has him at 30ish, so MORE than 30 is a distinct possibility

Justin: Hi Dan. I’m a Mets fan so I’m more invested, but I feel like this is such a monumental screw-up by mlb to not move the mets/braves games. Am I overreacting? It just seems like this was so avoidable.

Dan Szymborski: No, this isn’t like a surprise hurricane

mmddyyyy: Do umpires punish blatant framing efforts?

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t go that far

Dan Szymborski: But if you’re called out as shitty at something, it’s natural to want to improve

War2d2: Miguel Amaya had been the #1 prospect in the Cubs (admittedly weak) system for years, but was bit by the weird-injury bug. This year he was terrible for months, then on fire for most of July/August, and is currently back to being terrible. Does Zips think he’s pretty much a bust, or will he have some value going forward?

Dan Szymborski: SOME value, but ZiPS doesn’t see him as anything mroe than stopgap starter at this point

Smiling Politely: Am I donning blue-tinged glasses in thinking that the Dodgers might perform *better* in a short series (at least compared to last year’s miserable rotation) because, despite the lack of healthy starters, they have a bunch of deployable, 1-3 inning arms, Shohei Ohtani, and a likely bye?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think so. I mean, ZiPS agrees with you

Greg: So we’ll get a breath team and a candy team?

War2d2: The Cubs are both very young (starting 9 avg age is like 27) and very mid. They have some bats coming, but they all have big holes in their game–no “Kris Bryant 2014” in sight. That leaves FA to patch holes. Obviously a Juan Soto signing would fix everything, but they’re unlikely to pay that. What would make a bigger dent in getting them out of the .500 range, Snell/Burnes or Santander?

Dan Szymborski: A pitcher

Bosoxforlife: One of the more astounding trivia answers is that until 2024 only one HR had ever been hit by a player with the first name of Jackson. An obscure catcher named Jackson Williams who hit one for the Rockies in 2014.

Dan Szymborski: It’s kinda weird; haven’t like all the MLB Jackson first namers debuted in the last decade?

Dan Szymborski: I wonder why it became such a popular first name. I can’t imagine it was because of Michael Jackson

Dan Szymborski: Because by the late 90s/early 00s, jackson’s star was pretty dim

Sirras: If the Mets fail to get into the postseason, will their fans

Dan Szymborski: I think you’re allowed to go to postseason games even if your favorite team is eliminated

Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: What are the odds the Pirates actually build a contender around Skenes, Jones, Cruz, etc before they fail to extend them?  10%?  20%?

Dan Szymborski: I’ll say 20%

Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: If the Rockies dug a 5,000 foot pit and moved Coors to the bottom, would that eliminate the Coors Hangover effect?  Or does the travel schedule for such a remote team impact them as much/more?

Dan Szymborski: Maybe? There are probalby some problems with playing baseball in an underground pit

Dan Szymborski: and they’d do far better chasing good players than chasing an effect that *maybe* costs two points of OPS+ overall

Dan Szymborski: Now, if you put the Monforts in that pit and they don’t have phone access, that would be helpful to the Rockies

mmddyyyy: Does ZiPS handle a year missed due to injury or surgery recovery differently than a year off due to non-physical suspension or retirement?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

WAR confusion: What is the cause for the rather large WAR difference for Matt Chapman between Fangraphs and baseball reference?

Dan Szymborski: DRS vs. OAA is part of it

Dan Szymborski: I can’t really dig into the rest of the diff mid-chat though

Trtaylor6886: I hope the Mets Tragic/Hilarity Moment was having a relief pitcher throw his glove in the stands.

Dan Szymborski: But Lopez didn’t kill or maim anyone

Dan Szymborski: More hilarity than tragedy

Dan Szymborski: It’s like power-speed score: a Mets Moment has to rated by the harmonic mean of the tragedy and hilarity

Dan Szymborski: Players crushes his hand in an accident? Not a Mets Moment

Dan Szymborski: Player crushes his hand trying to do an impression of Michael Scott in the Office episode where he was talking about using the baler? Mets Moment

Guest: Has MLB ever moved a game to another stadium to avoid weather?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Dan Szymborski: The Marlins played two home games in Chicago like 20 years ago because of Hurricane Ivan

Dan Szymborski: And there was an Astros-Rangers series at Tropicana several yeras ago

Guest: Would MLB even have considered moving Mets @ Braves to a neutral site?

Dan Szymborski: They shoudl have!

Guest: who from the current rookie class will have the best career?

Dan Szymborski: Is it cheating to use ZiPS? ZiPS says Merrill

Dan Szymborski: Note that the future has no effect on my ROY ballot, so I am not spoiling who I am voting for in any way whatsoever

Dbacks fan: our CEO got ripped for asking for $100’s of millions at a hard time for so many. Doesn’t the FO have someone who works there that knew this would look bad? Talk about being unaware

Dan Szymborski: MLB teams seem to be devoid of shame and since politicians of both parties love just handing massive amounts of cash to very wealthy sports franchise owners, MLB teams rarely get punished for their shamelessness

Dan Szymborski: The A’s aren’t leaving because Oakland took some grand moral stand about giving them free money. It’s just that Fisher wanted even MORE free money than that

David: It seems  pretty likely Cole Young debuts next year as the Mariners Starting 2B and potentially opening day, I can’t imagine there’s a great projection on him from ZIPs?

Dan Szymborski: Not great, but it’s not a BAD projection

AL Central Casting: Do you ever look at team-wide changes in ZiPS from preseason? As a Twins fan who assumes many of their young players (Lewis in particular, but also Julien) will have worse forecasts after this season, I’m wondering what effect that will have on the team as a whole.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t really, simply because the construction of a team changes so much

marc: If I’m reading it correctly, Zips projections for Chourio overr the next 3 years are middling at best.  I watch him almost every game and to me he looks like a superstar in the making.  Any explanation?

Dan Szymborski: Thos were preseason

Sam: If we put the Monforts, Jerry Reinsdorf, and John Fisher in the Rockies pit and told them “first one to escape doesn’t have to sell the team”, would any of them try to escape?

Dan Szymborski: They might try to escape

Dan Szymborski: But if anyone succeeds, we didn’t do our job right

Dan Szymborski: You can throw Castellini and Nutting down there too

Guest: Are you forgetting Bobby Ojeda cutting off the tip of his finger with a hedge trimmer and missing the 1988 playoffs?

Dan Szymborski: But they just won the World Series in 1986, so the Mets needed a really big Hilargedy number

War2d2: PS: sorry for spamming you with questions, I saw you said you had less of an audience than usual and was trying to help with content 😂

War2d2: Re: MLB moving a game bc of weather: Carlos Zambrano’s no-no was a “road game” in Milwaukee against the Astros because of a hurricane.

>this guy<: Carlos Zambrano pitxhed a no-no against the Brewers at minute maid

>this guy<: wait no Big Z no-hit the Astros at Miller Park in MIL

Bosoxforlife: The Red Sox have 4 exciting prospects. Anthony, Mayer, Teel and Campbell. Is ZIPS actually excited about any or all of them

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS is excited about any or all of them 😀

Tyler: How do you explain so many Braves vastly underperforming their projections?

Dan Szymborski: Injuries are a pretty big deal

Dan Szymborski: I mean, they lost nearly *15* WAR from last year in Acuna and Strider alone

Dan Szymborski: (now, they didn’t lose 15 additional games of course, since that’s not how that works)

Aaron Judge hall of fame chances: What are my chances of making the Hall?

Dan Szymborski: Excellent

Dan Szymborski: I’m already a Yes on Judge based on peak

Guest: Is Bowden Francis an actual starting pitcher now instead of a #6/swingman?

Dan Szymborski: I tihnk he’s making a case, but I don’t think he has huge upside or anything

#1MetsFan: Last question of the year: Who is the most annoying fanbase?

Dan Szymborski: Are you TRYING to get me in trouble?

Dan Szymborski: I get it in enough trouble on my own

Justin: How do you rate Dave Dombrowski as a GM? He always has good teams but at the same time seems to have a hard time with player evaluation. I think the Nick Castellanos and Taijuan Walker FA signings where bad when they signed and he seems to overpay in trades for relievers (soto for vierling, estevez trade). It’s almost like hes stuck in 2010 but the Phillies are really good so I’m not sure what to make of it.

Dan Szymborski: I think he’s still quite solid. I think he may be overrated these days on pure talent acquisition, but he’s always underrated as a general administrator/leader

Dan Szymborski: He’s always run a very professional, competent front office

Dan Szymborski: And as far as I can tell, whenever there are ex-player hangers-on in a Dombrowski FO, they’re there for a reason, as in specific insight, not nostalgia

Dan Szymborski: Though exact interactions between front office people is the product of educated guesses

Dan Szymborski: I’m friendly with front offices and sell data to anybody, but both sides are very careful about how much information they share

Dan Szymborski: me for ethical reasons, them for practical ones. I’m not a beat guy, but I *am* a journalist still

War2d2: My brothers and I were talking about what we’d do if we suddenly became A) billionaires and B) owners of the White Sox (I’m a Cubs fan but from the South Side, so my family was all Sox fans). I don’t actually know what I’d do–if I came in as someone familiar with sabermetrics but not knowing anyone in the game, would I hire a consultant to help with hiring a “good” front office? Would the league help with finding that guy? Or would it be best to find Theo Epstein’s cell number and beg him to take the reins?

Dan Szymborski: Hiring an old-school new-school guy to help you assemble a front office isn’t a bad notion

Dan Szymborski: If I suddenly became a billionaire, I’m not buying a sports team

Dan Szymborski: I’d just take a lighter workload and spend the rest of the time goofing off

#1MetsFan: Hasn’t the last 6 years been enough of a Trag/arity for Mets fans to get some good ju ju? Unforunately I am seriously asking

Dan Szymborski: YOu’d need to chart the data

Syndergaardengnomes: Mets and Phillies both played London “home” games three months ago.  No reason the Braves couldn’t have played a neutral site home game.  It’s a lot more equitable solution than the Mets flying from Milwaukee to Atlante for a doubleheader on Monday.

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure I’d categorize those games as the same genre, so those were planned “events”

Tyler: So you think many of the players are playing injured? As a whole the team is underperforming based on injuries, yes. But  Murphy, Olson, Albies, Riley, Harris, Acuna all with very disappointing seasons

Dan Szymborski: No, some have just sucked

Dan Szymborski: but Acuna/Strider loss is MASSIVE

Appa Yip Yip: Is a perfect game worth 1 full WAR? Why or why not?

Dan Szymborski: Well, WAR isn’t really designed on this kind of micro level

Dan Szymborski: Philosophically, it shouldn’t be

Dan Szymborski: Unless the perfect game was 27 strikeouts, the defensive players earned some WAR and someone had to score the run or the game never ends

Dan Szymborski: Worded that badly

Giancarlo Hall of Fame?: What are voters going to do with Stanton’s career if he reaches say 500-550 home runs

Dan Szymborski: Depends how much he limps to it

Dan Szymborski: at his current trajectory, I’m a no

Dan Szymborski: but I’m also not the median Hall voter

Appa Yip Yip: Do you remember Base Wars? The fighting robot baseball game? They should remake that.

Dan Szymborski: I do

War2d2: The most annoying part of the Braves/Mets thing is that the Texas Super Walmart Dome was empty. They could have taken the 90min flight to Arlington and gotten all the games in.

Dan Szymborski: On that note, it’s time for me to head out ofr another week

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everyone!