DFS: Diamondbacks Are A Tuesdays Best Friend

Tuesdays slate on DraftKings is something of an underwhelming mess.  It’s underwhelming because the pitching choices are few and far between and highlight some guys whose recent performance has generated some pretty loud vitriol on Twitter amongst fans.  The slate is a bit of a mess because stacks are so obvious yet so plentiful that it seems like you  are bound to choose the wrong one through no fault of your own. I’m unsure as of yet whether I think this is an advantage or not.

One strategy I do like to employ in such events is to marry my SP choice to my stack. For example, SD is a good team to stack as they face Luis Ortiz. Ortiz is going  to have a hard time getting Ks. He has escaped his last two outings with good babip luck even though he has given up a lot of barreled contact and hard hits. You can roster Michael King and hope SD gets some early runs to make King’s job a bit easier on the mound. Nestor Cortes and the Yankees have a similar setup. You’ll have to eschew the recency bias of the suddenly hot hitting White Sox. In reality Andrew Benintendi and Andrew Vaughn have gotten hot together and are powering a little resurgence, but a good pitcher can still have a ceiling game in this spot. 

Another nice combo is the Boston Red Sox and Kutter Crawford. Crawford has been terrible lately and there are lots of ideas as to why, but his underlying stats still look good and point to a decent rest of season ERA with solid Ks and few BBs. I think that his HR/FB rate is simply regressing to the mean. He had a great start to the season that was a little lucky, but his actual ERA is now in line with his Siera. Every new start is really a blank slate and we should treat it as such here. BOS’s offense will face Jose Urena, enough said. 

When no pitchers really stand out, any and all seem viable. This is more true than we think, so find an angle today that you can find some unbiased data to support. If your SP pick matches up with the following offenses, I say go ahead and play both: KC, TOR, LAD, or ARI.

Let’s quickly talk about ownership. It can congregate in places on a slate like this and because there are so many options it’s better to simply avoid high ownership. Players like Judge and Soto will be popular as well as the other high priced studs like Ohtani and Witt. Leadoff hitters and cheap 2B are often easy to click into a lineup and get more ownership than they deserve. Continue to find stacks that you like. NYM may win people a tourney tonight and Lindor will probably be low owned. MIL could be the offense you have to have, but they will be scarcely stacked even though they boast one of the top catching options. These are examples of fearless play. MIN is another. It doesn’t look great facing Seth Lugo, but MIN can produce big fantasy scores if the opposing pitcher is a little off. There is not a lot that analysis and stats can do today to create separators. Avoid high ownership and continue to roster the good players and you have a chance tonight.

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Michael King, SP: $9,500 – He is the best of the bunch tonight pitching in a matchup that should net him some Ks. I don’t think he’s a must play, but he’s quite obviously the best play.

Nestor Cortes, SP: $8,400 – This one is going to feel very gross to tap on until the game is underway. His recent performances have been bad, but he’s still a FB pitcher against a weak hitting lineup. Cortes could get a lot of easy outs tonight and keep him pitching deeper in the game thereby racking up Ks. You don’t need a big SP score tonight for a separator and I want to attack bad offenses.

Shea Langeliers, C: $4,400 – When a former C/SP combo faces off there can often be an advantage for the C. They have seen so many pitches. Langeliers is not just any C though. He is a C with a great ability to hit the ball hard and he is getting better at limiting the Ks. He’s a great option tonight that should go unowned.

Josh Bell, 1B: $3,700 – High priced 1B have a lot of warts including high K rates so I like to dig around a bit lower in the pricing tiers. Bell has been giving you power and a good hit tool over the last 30 days (18/11 K/BB) and he’s got one of the best matchups today. I could also mention the lineup he is in has been crushing.

Kevin Newman, 2B: $2,200 – What a price?! Newman likely won’t get over owned (should Katel Marte miss of course) due to his spot in the lineup, but he can definitely produce here.

Oswaldo Cabrera, 3B: $2,600 – Should Jazz Chisholm be forced to miss a game, the likely replacement will be Cabrera who is good when he plays and the Yankees have a really positive matchup tonight. It’s a nice way to save some more salary.

Corey Seager, SS: $5,400 – His pure hitting ways are continuing when healthy and Seager is one of the few top tier at the SS position tonight. What does that get you? While other SS options have better matchups, they aren’t displaying the skills of a Seager. Still other SS options tonight are displaying skills, but are younger, untested players in difficult matchups. Trust Seager or play one of those guys as part of a stack.

Mickey Moniak/Jo Adell, OF: $2,900/$3,200 – These two Angels in the outfield are both holding 10% barrel rates in the last 30 days and 91 EV. Both are getting better at reducing their K rates and Jo Adell is actually walking 10% of the time. I would roster them as one offs on two different rosters hoping they hit a HR again tonight. 

Randall Grichuk, OF: $3,600 – He mostly faces LHP only, but when he does the 20/10 K/BB rate and 92 EV is a nice addition to a stack. If Gurriel/Marte are still hurt I would trust Grichuk a bit more to play through any possible pinch hitters.

I’m Only Happy When It Rains

No weather issues today except that there is no hot weather. This makes for milder offensive environments where we are counting on a bad game from a pitcher or bullpen to find a high scoring game. These are not as easy to predict as weather.

Doing Lines In Vegas

Vegas O/Us and team totals tell the same story I was latching onto above. There is a lot of attractive hitting options on today’s slate, almost too many. Vegas points to NYY and BOS leading the pack followed closely by ARI. It’s better to find other options to stack than the chalky ones on slates like this.