Warning: If you do not take the time to review tonight’s slate, you will get burnt. DraftKings has 13 games lined up and there are not a lot of good pitching options. There are always plenty of good hitting options, but it’s much trickier than it normally is. There is no team that stands out as a great play and the winning lineup will likely have you writing it off as luck or questioning your skills as a DFS player tonight.
I have carefully reviewed all of the matchups and included a bullet point list of notes to look through when making decisions. As always, play for first, which means stacking players from the same team. Play fearless, meaning follow the data and don’t worry if your lineup looks a bit unconventional or ugly. Finally, no one can predict baseball, but there are better plays. Land on an angle that you can support with data and sound thinking and lean into it. I will post a table of the relevant stats and notes for tonight’s slate later in the day on My Twitter. Check it out for a more thorough analysis of tonight’s slate.
- Oakland (told you it’s ugly) faces Slade Cecconi who has not been good when pitching at home (6, 6, and 7 ERs) and he doesn’t pitch deep into games. ARI has had the worst bullpen over the last 30 days according to SIERA, but their best bullpen arms are rested.
- Detroit faces an extreme FB pitcher (Plesac) with no Ks and a bad bullpen.
- The park factor in Boston may help out the Red Sox tonight. The opposing SP (Vasquez) and bullpen are very average, so some hot bats could pile on the runs. BOS has the highest implied Vegas team total tonight.
- On a positive note, the Cubs hit for power and on a negative note, they K too often. They have been an average MLB offense last 30, but have been the most aggressive on the base paths (after starting very slow).
- CLE should be able to generate lots of hard contact vs Marsh (90 EV, 10% barrel, 41% HH) and the KC bullpen has been pitching to a 4.20 Siera the last 30 days.
- SD limits the Ks well and they will be facing a pitcher who allows plenty of high launch angle contact (19.8 avg) that is often hit hard (9.6% barrel, 36% HH) and is playing in a good hitters park.
- ARI hits lefties well and JP Sears has shown an inability to get outs against good hitting.
- HOU rarely piles on the hits and Jose Quintana rarely gets beat up, but with the thin options tonight, it’s at least worth mentioning that HOU has a good matchup vs. Quintana.
- Drew Thorpe pitches at home against COL tonight. He is in play due to the lack of pitching options available. I will also take a chance on Jameson Taillon, Frankie Montas, and Andre Pallante.
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Bailey Ober, SP: $8,800 – I expect Ober to be very highly owned tonight. Not only is he facing the high K SEA team in a pitcher’s park, but his K/BB stats are also solid and he is coming off a 40 point outing (89 pitch complete game) his last time out. Sometimes it makes sense to fade plays like this, but I will not be.
Ugh… Frankie Montas, SP: $6,500 – The play here is based on price and ceiling. Montas does have one 36 point fantasy score this year when he faced COL (in Coors) and his average game will also not kill you at his price. I am willing to bet that a lot of people will make the wrong selection tonight at pitcher and I want to bet on someone who I can count on for floor and ceiling scores. Montas has a decent K/BB projection as well and owns the platoon advantage vs. most of the power bats for STL. You could also go with the pitcher on the other side of this game who generates > 50% GB.
Connor Wong, C: $3,700 – Wong is back from the paternity list for Friday’s game. This means he has papa power. He’s also a really good hitting catcher, batting in the middle of what should be a productive lineup tonight. Lots to like here including the price.
Tyler Soderstrom, 1B: $2,700 – Soderstrom has similar numbers as more expensive options tonight in terms of on base ability and power. He is also in a really good matchup along with the rest of the Oakland lineup. This is one of those times where Oakland will be a bit underrated.
Nico Hoerner, 2B: $4,000 – Hoerner has been stealing a lot more bases lately as he gets back to his 2023 form. Colin Rea is not going to prevent him from getting on base and he makes a nice addition to Cubs stacks tonight.
Jose Ramirez, 3B: $6,300 – This will be a spend up position for me tonight since there are plenty of options who are capable of producing “had to have it” scores. J-Ram is one of the best and his matchup/hitting conditions are good.
David Hamilton, SS: $4,200 – Fantasy players have really globbed onto the recent rise of David Hamilton. You should take note of the power/speed combo and think of adding him to BOS stacks tonight. The price, matchup and his ability all line up here.
Ian Happ, OF: $3,900 – This guy just never gets his fair credit, but I’ll take him at this price and in a good matchup. He is a power and speed option for whom strikeouts are an issue. Colin Rea is not a strikeout pitcher and neither is most of the Brewers bullpen.
Jackson Merrill, OF: $4,500 – Merrill has similar power and speed abilities as Happ with about half the strikeouts. Merrill is one of the reasons why Pivetta owners should be worried about starting him tonight.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
The only real rain concern is in Chicago where most of us will be bypassing the Rockies and White Sox players on a 13 game slate. Make sure to check in on the weather in Kansas City before rostering Guardians players.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Most of the lines Vegas is putting out are ideas I can agree with. I do like the Cubs over the Brewers, which is opposite of what Vegas is saying. I do not like the Atlanta offense as much as Vegas does and I think Oakland and Arizona could produce more runs than that game is currently being credited with.
