There are only 8 games on this Friday’s slate with 6 games kicking off prior to 7 EST. It’s a rare size of slate for a Friday, with some advantages for those of us who can spot them. Logic tells us that ownership will become more concentrated on certain plays. Additionally, less opportunities for offense may mean reduced scores, but of course, this second point gives us no edge because we won’t know the reality until games are over. We should be thinking more about ownership today than on a normal Friday slate. Let’s dig into some spots that might be high owned and see if we want/need to go there ourselves.
Spencer Arrighetti has 25 Ks in his last two games and now he is facing the White Sox in his home ballpark. DFS players will be licking their chops to roster this guy. CWS has the worst offense by far over the past 30 days so in small field contests it makes a lot of sense to follow the field on Arrighetti. I will point out that he has a 10% BB rate and 10% barrel rate since 6/1, but Andrew Benintendi has been the only one contributing in that category for CWS over the past 30 days. The team as a whole has 19 in 24 total games over that span. Sean Manaea is similarly priced and gets a good K matchup against a team with slightly more power and recent success, MIA. Manaea could easily outperform Arrighetti in this spot, and I would consider capitalizing twice by rostering some of the CWS lineup if fading Arrighetti for Manaea. “Play Fearless” is one of my mantras in DFS, but I think stacking more than 3 CWS is not fearless but a waste.
Ownership will always be more concentrated on the Coors field game on a smaller slate, especially with the success SD has been having this season. The SD lineup is priced up (4 players above 5k) which should reduce stacks and make them more viable. I wouldn’t touch COL against the knuckleballer, Matt Waldron. Last time at Coors his knuckleball was pretty effective. NYM players will attract ownership as they face one of the worst SPs pitching today. Roddery Munoz has allowed 21 HRs in 14 games, often allowing multiple HRs in one game. We all know the HR generates the most points, so it’s a tough spot to fade tonight especially with prices like 3.9k on Mark Vientos.
I just used AI to assess how good the Braves have been this year vs. sinker ball pitchers like Jose Soriano! Nice tool. The Braves have a good FB rate as a team and are about 10-15% above average against the ground ball pitching types. I could see the Braves continuing their offensive uptick tonight and projection sites probably aren’t highlighting them given their Vegas total.
MIN always submits a good lineup vs. a lefty pitcher, Andrew Heaney. Heaney hasn’t had too many blow ups and has significantly reduced his HRs allowed in 2024, but he has experienced a recent dip in his K rate which could lead MIN to a nice DFS score. Finally, MIL has been on sort of a power surge lately with 20 HRs over their last 13 games. Gavin Williams has great K stuff, but has also been giving up hard contact. This leads me to believe that he’s leaving some hangers in the zone frequently. If so, MIL would be patient enough to take advantage. They are one of the league leaders in babip.
Overall I see a slate devoid of many great stacks and teams like SD, ATL, and NYM are pretty expensive to roster full stacks. 5 man stacks are very helpful to taking down 1st in a tourney because it allows you the best chance to grab all the high scores on a team that performs well. In order to fit in the best teams today it might require limiting stacks to 4 and 3 players, still recognizing the importance of the cheaper players lower in the lineups. It’s not going to be an easy night to build a comfy roster which ultimately is an edge I think.
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Spencer Arrighetti, SP: $8,500 – Everything about this matchup is favorable. Arrighetti excels with Ks and should have the chance for many against the CWS lineup. He struggles with barrels and walks, two things CWS is not good at. The price is right and I’m likely riding the ownership on this one.
Gavin Williams, SP: $6,500 – Williams has had great K stuff so far on the year even though he has been getting hit hard and giving up a high babip. At some point he will marry the two skills, Ks and a low babip. This is the type of slate where a big score from Gavin Williams (25 DK points) can top the slate and leave you with enough salary to roster the better hitters you need.
Korey Lee, C: $2,200 – Striking out 33% of the time is not a quality hitting trait, but the options are few today and Lee does barrel the ball up when he makes contact. If going with a CWS strategy, Lee is someone I want to pair with Benintendi in hopes I get a couple cheap HRs.
Pete Alonso, 1B: $4,600 – Alonso consistently gets his power production over the MLB season. He is in a spot tonight where every at bat could be the HR you need to make this play a success. Munoz gives up tons of HRs. Alonso is a bit cheaper than normal and he should have people on base to drive in as well. The Mets are in one of the best spots tonight.
Jackson Holliday, 2B: $3,400 – I have been touting Holiday since early in the season and it’s nice to see his production coming around. We don’t often see his kind of power at the 2B position which makes me more likely to pull the trigger on him here. His downside in this matchup is the elevated GB rate, but I am playing him for the hope of a HR.
Austin Riley, 3B: $5,300 – Riley is leading his position again in hard hit rates and power production. He excels when facing sinker pitchers and he gets that facing Jose Soriano. There’s also Vientos to consider, but I like Riley as a pay up option to be different.
Corey Seager, SS: $5,500 – This is a one off play for people who have the money. I won’t be forcing him in, but there also are not a lot of appealing SS options today outside of Seager. His contact is elite and Woods-Richardson is not gonna silence him.
Jackson Chourio, OF: $4,200 – Recently Gavin Williams has been allowing some pretty hard contact to batters who he has not been striking out. In 5 of his 8 games pitched this season, Williams has allowed an average EV of 93+. Chourio rarely Ks and his power has produced HRs in bunches lately. In addition, he gets SBs.
Jackson Merrill, OF: $5,100 – A player who sprays the ball to all fields with power is a player who can excel at Coors field. Merrill can post a good score all on his own since he so consistently barrels the ball and hits hard in the air. I’m not sure that I can effectively create a Padres stack, but Merrill looks like a nice high priced addition to a cheaper stack.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
No concerns for rain in the late games on the main slate. The warm weather should contribute to some good scoring, but no environments are off the charts today.
Doing Lines In Vegas
There are some juicy Vegas totals in Coors field and amongst some of the teams named above. That should help you figure out where ownership will be going tonight, namely San Diego and the Mets. If you do feel like betting a single team, I like the odds for the Brewers tonight. I think they should be slightly more favored than the Guardians.
