My process for examining a slate always starts with a look into the K/BB numbers for pitchers and their opponents as well as a look at which teams perform well vs. the type of pitcher (LH/RH) they will be facing. I am able to pinpoint the teams I want to target for offensive production and the pitchers I want to roster. Tonight, I only want to roster 3 pitchers, which makes the offensive possibilities quite difficult to choose from. On nights like these and with 11 games, stacking becomes such an important part of playing for first. I would encourage you to approach today’s slate with that in mind.
So who should we be stacking? It really is up to you, but consider some of these ideas. NYY has to face Gausman, but the Yankees are a HR hitting team facing the team who has given up the most HRs. If they get to Gausman, they could easily win the slate. The SF Giants get a huge park upgrade and despite losing Jorge Soler, they still crush LHPs. I don’t think Abbott will be able to keep the ball in the park. On the other side of that game, CIN is really tough vs. LHPs and Kyle Harrison will be happy he doesn’t have to pitch outside of SF very often after this game.
Don’t sleep on OAK just because they have the Dodgers coming to town. OAK still has the best wRC+ in the last 30 days. Finally, there are a lot of good teams facing bad pitching. SD, BAL, MIN and ATL are all great options to stack tonight. Take this knowledge and spend some time building lineups. If you find affordability to be an issue, don’t be afraid to roster some 7-9 hitters or take a pitcher from a team you are heavily stacking. There is some positive correlation between good offense and the SP.
Enjoy another Friday night of MLB DFS before the NFL really picks up. Check out My Twitter later today for a full table of SPs and relevant stats. The picks section below is really meant to help identify one off plays, but stacks can be built around any of these plays as well.
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Joe Ryan, SP: $9,700 – This will be the chalkiest play on the slate, but don’t let ownership sway you. Ryan will have the best K potential on the slate and faces a team with few opportunities/talent to hit the ball hard. You may just need to hop on board here.
Spencer Schwellenbach, SP: $8,800 – The rookie hurler is going to be facing a depleted Marlins club and is coming off a huge 11k performance. This is a good matchup should he have his usual control, but if you think his ownership is too high, play Kikuchi instead.
Sean Murphy, C: $3,200 – I am inclined to roster a C as part of my stack tonight, but if not I’ll be looking to Murphy whose max EV and barrel rate suggest HRs are coming. As it is, he can still hit for average and draw a walk and his opposing pitcher has a .500 babip so far in the majors.
Matt Olson, 1B: $4,800 – High K rates seem to go with the position, so I’m taking the K rate out of consideration at 1B. Olson is driving the ball again and has 3 HRs in his last 2 games. He should be a part of any ATL stack tonight.
Jonathan India, 2B: $4,500 – This is another position I would encourage rostering a player from your stack tonight. There is not much power at the position, but India should lead off and has good control of the strike zone and decent power in a good park.
Matt Chapman, 3B: $4,800 – There is a lot of power at this position tonight so you are going to need a solid performance here to contend. Chapman is right up there with the best, he hits lots of fly balls and is better vs. LHPs. Lots of points in his favor tonight.
Marco Luciano, SS: $2,800 – You know the best, let’s look at the rest. Luciano has not proven anything yet and may just be a hopeful play, but the price is right for someone with power, playing in a hitter park and facing an attackable lefty who should force a lot of fly balls.
Matt Wallner, OF: $3,500 – His 99 EV and 36% barrel rate over his first 15 games lead all OFers and he is still this cheap!! He has strikeout risk but makes a great one off play.
Lawrence Butler, OF: $4,100 – How is he so cheap? Anything can happen in a baseball game including an 0-5 performance, but Butler has the best numbers in the OF and he is cheap. I would encourage you to roster a couple OFers from your stack and don’t be afraid to include some 7-9 hitters.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
There is nothing too concerning weather wise, but you should probably be paying attention to the following spots which more likely feature delays rather than PPD; NYY, CIN, ATL. The game at Yankee Stadium has the greatest chance for delay/PPD according to Kevin Roth.
Doing Lines In Vegas
There is a lot of interesting information to glean from Vegas today. Most notably, the Atlanta Braves have the highest implied team total today, which I can get behind because players like Matt Olson and Sean Murphy are starting to get better. The
Miami bullpen had mostly kept me off of teams facing them, but they traded a lot of that away. This makes me like ATL in DFS even more.
Most of the other teams we will be targeting have high team totals except OAK. They are still a very underappreciated offense in Vegas and they boast an explosive offense. I would definitely stack OAK in larger tournaments when playing multiple lineups. I usually don’t play those.
