Today marks MLB’s trading deadline where a player could be dealt anytime up until 6pm ET. Late news is always the most difficult to react to, so if you can pay attention up until that time, you may get some deals on guys who move up in the order or pitchers who face an easier lineup. We have already seen some deals that will shift the way I have been playing DFS most of the year. Let’s take a look.
The Mariners have consistently been a team you start pitchers against, especially in their home ballpark. SEA recently acquired Justin Turner and Randy Arozarena, and the days of 28-30% K rates as a lineup are a thing of the past. SEA has always been a team that hits the ball hard and I am much more likely to stack them than stack against. CHC were able to replace a high K bat with Isaac Paredes who has great control of the zone and still gives them power. He should make that lineup more potent by increasing the balls in play with men on base. I like that heart of the order for CHC now. STL has been a fringy team to stack vs. RHPs, but adding Tommy Pham to their order is enough of a boost. Trust your reactions to trades and what they will do to the DFS slate tonight.
Tonight’s slate is very top heavy at SP. I usually like to look for bargains, but I will not be dipping much below 8k tonight. This does naturally lead to an offensive heavy slate. I can already pinpoint 9 teams that I will be deciding between for stacks. I will even consider my main stack being only a 4 man stack in order to fit in as many ceiling plays as I can. Most slates only have a handful of 30 point scores and they often occur on the same team. Stacking is a great way to get the 2-3 highest scoring players on a slate, even if the others in that stack do a minimal amount of damage. On tonight’s slate, there may still be a handful of 30 point scores, but there will also be several 20-30 point scores which I think are a bit easier to project (at least the teams they will come from) tonight. This is why I think 2 4-man stacks or a 4,3,1 combo could be a good way to fit in some of those high upside players while still fitting in some high priced pitchers. Let’s dive into some offenses that I like.
SEA used to strike out a ton vs. LHPs, but their new acquisitions make the lineups much more potent. Add in the fact that they are facing James Paxton who has really struggled all season and the hot, humid weather in Boston and you have a potential slate changer. BOS on the other side of that game has been surging offensively. They face Luis Castillo who has the lowest swK rate of his career and is certainly capable of a blow up in this environment. ARI and HOU are both great lineups against lefties and can be depended on as a stack considering the SPs they are facing. KC doesn’t hit for much power outside of Witt, but they get Jon Cannon and the dwindling CWS bullpen. I could see them putting up a bunch of runs here that might continue into the late innings. Finally, NYM has a powerful lineup and David Festa has not adjusted to the major league level yet. We could see another outburst from this Mets lineup with HRs aplenty.
Check out the picks section below for some one-off plays or people to consider building a stack around.
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Robbie Ray, SP: $8,200 – If Ray hadn’t faced the Dodgers in his impressive first start I would be questioning it more, but 8 Ks and 2 BBs with only 1 run is not something I want to fade going forward. Ray will pitch in a park forgiving to FBs, which should quell the A’s big strength and lead to a nice DK score.
Michael Wacha, SP: $8,700 – It’s important to view this as a pick from amongst only a handful of viable SPs. Wacha scored 30 points the last time they faced off, and the CWS lineup is only getting worse with the trade deadline.
Gabriel Moreno, C: $3,400 – His barrels have not yet turned into HRs as he has only 1 over the last 30 days. This keeps his cost down while he continues to put up usable DFS scores. I’m awaiting the 2 HR game and rostering a player that doesn’t often cost me a tourney win. Also, don’t sleep on Sean Murphy at a low price. He has started to put it together recently.
Michael Busch, 1B: $3,800 – The price point is what sticks out here because I like Pete Alonso as well. I just don’t think Busch is as far off and the stats over the last 30 days are pretty comparable. I’m really hoping for some fireworks from this CHC lineup in Cincy this week.
Ketel Marte, 2B: $5,500 – Marte really only justifies this price if he leads the position in scoring tonight. He leads the position by a long shot in terms of his underlying stats (EV, barrels, maxEV, k/BB) and he is significantly better vs. LHPs. All in for Marte unless you need to fill out a stack with a 2B position.
Eugenio Suarez, 3B: $3,700 – It has taken Suarez a while to get his swing back together, but the last 30 days have included hard hit data and HRs on par with any other 3B. His K rate is always a bit high, but his price is not.
Dylan Moore, SS: $3,700 – You all know the best, and then there’s the rest. The best of the rest is Moore. He hits lefties well and because of the Crawford injury,m he should play the whole game. That SEA lineup is one I will be targeting tonight.
Victor Robles, OF: $3,300 – Speaking of turnarounds, Robles has finally found a home atop the Mariners batting order. He’s a selection for me because of his speed and his ability to score via the SB. It should all add up tonight and he can push 20 DK points despite his lack of power.
MJ Melendez, OF: $3,000 – Melendez has re-established his power and avg K rate at this point in the season. He is going to threaten to hit a HR in good matchups so he’s a nice one off play if you need some salary saving and he also fits in a KC stack.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
There may be some rain to worry about in STL, but you should be able to roster players without too much worry tonight. There is some nice hot/humid weather across the US, most notably in Boston.
Doing Lines In Vegas
N/A today
