Friday night gives DFS players an entertaining 10 game slate that includes some of the best offenses in MLB: BAL, LAD, CLE, MIN, NYY, SD, MIL, and HOU. We will have a lot of options to choose from. On the pitching side there are really attractive options up and down the pricing scale. All of this will serve to make ownership an important part of your process. Since there will be many good plays, we won’t want to get stuck rostering the plays that are most owned. With the inherent variance and unpredictability of MLB DFS, the highest owned plays are rarely going to live up to expectations as often as they are being rostered. Take a similarly good play at much less ownership.
With that in mind, what are some of the best plays tonight and which ones will be lower owned? I think without the glut of high total games (according to Vegas) we will see some ownership build up on the Coors Field game involving COL and WAS. WAS is a below average offense playing against a bad pitcher in a good park. Certainly this is a viable team to stack and it may work out for you. I would rather consider an LAD stack. The Dodgers are facing Patrick Sandoval who often wastes pitches and has trouble going deep in ball games. After facing the average MLB pitcher, Dodgers hitters will get to face one of the worst bullpens in MLB for the duration of the game. Sadly, LAD will likely only get 8 innings of at bats if they are playing well.
MIN has been one of the hottest teams lately and Royce Lewis hasn’t been the only one contributing. You will often find opportunities on MIN to pay down at different positions and in good matchups like this one against OAK, you can roster up and down the MIN roster without worrying about ownership.
HOU has not named a starter as I type this, and BAL is one of the best offenses in MLB. They are an easy choice to roster as their upside potential is similar to the 16 runs they scored last night. This lineup is potent up and down and they have hit the most HRs in the league over the last 30 games. Finally, CLE will give us a chance to stack and offense where we know who will generate the power. Include Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor and 3 other members of that team and hope for the best.
Check My Twitter later for a full list of the relevant starting pitcher stats that will guide my roster decisions.
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George Kirby, SP: $9,400 – Kirby is always better in SEA, but this MIA ballpark is similarly spacious and plays to the pitcher. Kirby may not walk a single MIA batter in this game and they will have a hard time generating runs against Kirby.
Kutter Crawford SP: $8,200 – Vegas projects CIN to score 4.9 runs and win this game, but Crawford actually has decent K numbers and is facing a CIN team that should still rack up the Ks. If Crawford can keep the ball in the ballpark, he should have a good game at this price.
Connor Wong, C: $3,500 – Wong will hit near the middle of the lineup against a lefty. Playing at the smaller park should give BOS bats more opportunities for HRs and Wong will either be the one hitting them or the on base presence getting driven in.
Ryan Mountcastle, 1B: $4,200 – The price is just too low on the slugger batting in the middle of this potent BAL offense. I want to roster him and a number of other bats from this team.
Willi Castro, 2B: $4,300 – As long as he qualifies at the position, Castro will be a favorite target. Looking at his game logs he often puts up double digit points and he has another good matchup tonight against Estes.
Royce Lewis, 3B: $5,800 – Lewis is on some kind of a tear and many of his owners are just hoping he doesn’t tear anything in the process. Roster him while he’s healthy.
Romy Gonzalez, SS: $2,700 – Here’s some salary savings for you tonight if you want it. Gonzalez should play against lefty starters and he has some decent skills at that price. If he is batting 6th or higher in the lineup I will surely give him some looks.
Ceddanne Rafaela, OF: $3,500 – Even batting 9th in this lineup, Rafaela has been putting up power and speed numbers. He is a must for any BOS stack in my opinion. His plate discipline is adjusting in front of our eyes and he may be a second half stud if he hasn’t been recognized as that already.
Lane Thomas, OF: $5,100 – If I roster one player in Coors it will be Thomas. I just love his combo of speed and power and no matter if his team is slumping, Thomas will surely be up to the task. He should maintain a good floor in the friendly Coors confines and the ceiling is comparable with the other top plays on the slate.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
No weather concerns for tonight’s slate outside of the ATL @ NYY game where rain could impact the starting pitchers.
Doing Lines In Vegas
The O/U in the MIN at OAK game has risen considerably. This is in line with how I am seeing this game and my interest in the MIN offense. I am not fully sold on the CIN projection according to Vegas. Kutter Crawford has been pretty good, especially at limiting HRs and CIN offense has been below average again in recent play. Vegas expects some more runs to be scored there.
