I think that recognizing our biases is the most important thing we can to be successful DFS players. If you play a lot you can develop biases without even recognizing them. One simple trick I employ is to look at each game in the DK app planning out which plays I would roster along the way. This is a “fast thinking” method. Later I will engage in my process which includes looking at the relevant stats for every starting pitcher and the team they are facing. I always post this on My Twitter later in the day. I can then determine my biases and try to work through those.
For today’s slate I have been able to identify 5 offenses whose matchups are attractive in terms of the positive run scoring environments. MIL, LAD, HOU, LAA, and KC all face pitchers who are likely to allow hits and runs. These teams do not need to rely on HRs to score DFS points since hits and runs can be expected. These are great teams to stack. I prefer a 3 man stack for the Angels, KC, and Astros because I don’t like their players as much (more data driven than bias) but MIL and LAD can be 4 or 5 man stacks.
If the HR environment is heating up, I want to be ahead of it by looking to roster specifically those players. The environment in the SF game is pretty clearly conducive to HRs as is the park in the BAL-NYY game. I like attacking the pitchers facing MIN and NYM as well. There should be lots of players on those teams that will be good HR targets today. Read below for some of my highlighted picks.
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Pablo Lopez, SP: $9,000 – No discount on a 5.33 ERA pitcher?! Oh well. Lopez is going to have the top K projection on the slate and he gets the lowest (8.3%) HR/FB team on the slate. Lopez has allowed most of his runs on HRs and relievers allowing his runners to score. I think this is the highest upside play on the day.
Spencer Schwellenbach SP: $7.000 – Spending up twice at SP is going to put a strain on your offensive expenditures, so Schwelly is my pay down option today. I like that he has faced two really strong offenses (BOS, BAL) and managed to go 6 IP on 89 pitches his last time out. DET gives Schwelly a chance to accumulate some Ks along the way.
Logan O’Hoppe, C: $4,300 – There are 3 players on LA that are stroking the ball and O’Hoppe is one of them. It’s just enough firepower to provide the RBI opportunities he needs to come through at this mid-level price.
Wilmer Flores, 1B: $3,400 – Flores will probably start today’s game in Wrigley with the wind blowing out to left field. He has been pull happy (51%) recently and should provide enough power to get one out.
Willi Castro, 2B: $4,400 – As long as he qualifies at the position, Castro will be a favorite target. Looking at his game logs he often puts up double digit points and he has another good matchup tonight at home against Civale (15% HR/FB).
Kike Hernandez, 3B: $3,300 – No one needs to tell you to play cheap Dodgers in Coors, but Hernandez is not only cheap, he’s swinging the bat really well. He will likely hit high in the order and is just too good to pass on.
Francisco Lindor, SS: $4,700 – Keep hammering the Mets while they are hot. The opposing pitcher tonight, Mike Lorenzan, has a sparkling 2.86 ERA that is the result of a .232 babip and 85% LOB. It all came crashing down for the Rangers last night, and it very well could again.
SF Giants OFs, OF: $3,000 – 4,400 – From Slater, to Ramos, to Soler, they are all very capable of pulling the ball and getting it out of the ball park on a Windy day in Wrigley. I would bet on one of them having a sweet DFS score today.
JD Martinez, OF: $4,200 – Did we expect anything less from JD. He just hits and his game logs show you what can happen when he is hot and driving the whole Mets offense. The matchup is not tough.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
The main concern is in Minnesota tonight which is disappointing since I see a lot of potential for that offense tonight. Let’s hope they play.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Nothing to note except that O/Us are rising considerably with the weather. This means we should expect more HRs and higher DFS scores. You must be targeting HR environments or hitters tonight.
