There are so many options to consider when playing a 12 game slate and especially on a slate like today where no plays in particular stand out. While it can be overwhelming, I think it can also be much simpler. The same tenets of DFS still apply; Play for first place and build your lineups with a fearless mentality. I repeat these tenets to myself all the time and in fact they are not bad as mantras for life. What do I mean?
As I have said before, the only reason I am a good DFS player is because I have taken first in a number of tournaments with large prize pools. When I look at my overall winnings, it is basically equal to the amount I have won in 10 tournaments. Otherwise, I am breaking even and my bankroll goes up and down. Sometimes I ride cold streaks and have to endure that punishing feeling as I just can’t catch a break. Sometimes I’m hot, but the tournaments are so top heavy that in the end only first place really matters. So, let’s build with that mentality.
On tonight’s slate, you could stack the Mets who lead MLB in HRs over the past 30 days and face a pitcher with a high HR rate. You might miss the fact that Tanner Gordon doesn’t give up free passes and that the Mets can hit a bunch of solo homers and do you no good in tournaments. I imagine NYM will be highly owned at the SS, 3B, OF spots tonight. You could stack CIN vs. Yonny Chirinos and feel pretty good (I might recommend a few Reds myself) but be aware of the solid bullpen that MIA sports. Chirinos won’t be giving away too many free passes and he will only be expected to make it through 5 IP before giving way to the 5th ranked bullpen by SIERA over the past 30 days. Tonight is a good chance to do something different and to realize that with 12 games going, ANYTHING can happen.
I know Tyler Anderson has a 2.81 ERA, but it’s largely due to a .229 babip, not his 16% K rate and 10% BB rate. SEA has the best barrel rate in the last 30 games and we saw their explosiveness last night. Maybe it’s time for Anderson to experience some regression to the mean. MIL has the best babip vs RHPs in MLB by far. They also have the most SBs vs RHPs. Jackson Rutledge is maybe going to make it as a MLB reliever long term and this seems like a promotion that is gonna help a team that will not make the playoffs limp into the all star break. MIL is a fun stack tonight. ATL has been a disappointment all year, but that high priced lineup will go largely unowned tonight vs. Randy Vasquez even though they lead the league in EV and are 3rd in barrels over the last 30 days. An ATL stack can also fill out your entire infield and leave you to pick and choose from the plethora of OF plays. You would have to find a cheap pitcher to do this, but who knows what highly owned high priced pitcher has their mind on the break coming up and not the game.
Think differently tonight and build fearlessly. You have no idea what can win a tournament until you do it and sit there looking back at the team you assembled with shock and awe and confidence! Check out My Twitter for a complete chart of today’s SPs and relevant stats.
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Cole Ragans, SP: $8,500 – Boston is never a comfortable place to pitch, but the K numbers are very enticing in this spot. Ragans has a 29% K rate and the BOS lineup shares that rate on their own. Simple math calculations bring that to an expected K rate of 35%, which is 8 Ks if Ragans faces his avg. number of batters. He has upside from there.
Freddy Peralta, SP: $9,700 – Peralta is a tournament winning type of play because he has a ton of upside, which is usually why I like him. Today there is another reason. WAS has been rostering a lineup with 5 lefties leading off followed by 4 RHBs. Peralta doesn’t really have splits to RH/LH batters that are concerning outside of walks, but I believe this style of lineup will allow him to get into a groove, especially when pitching at home where his BB rate drops to 5%.
Gabriel Moreno, C: $3,500 – Drafters expected a lot from Moreno right off the bat this year, but it has taken him a while to find the power to go with his elite bat skills. He is in fine form right now and hitting at the top of a lineup that Vegas seems to like a lot today.
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B: $4,300 – Goldschmidt vs. Hendricks was probably a matchup from when I started playing DFS ten years ago and here we are again. Hendricks is considerably worse and Goldy is still hitting the ball as squarely as the other top 1b options. His price is right for this favorable matchup.
Jonathan India, 2B: $4,500 – India is another batter who has started to put it together as the weather has warmed up. He is leading off for a decent offense in a great hitters park and he should get at least 3 chances to face Chirinos. If his price is too high, I like finding a 2b from the team I am stacking.
Mark Vientos, 3B: $4,600 – He will likely be a popular player today who I will be trying to roster as a one off play. His K rate is not too high, but he strikes the ball with a lot of authority and is probably in the best position to hit a HR today considering the lineup of pitchers he will face.
Bobby Witt Jr., SS: $6,300 – I think Witt will go under owned tonight, but there isn’t much difference between him and the other top SS that will be higher owned. Witt gets to play in a hitters park and we know the absurd scores that he can put up, especially against the likes of Cooper Crisswell.
Jesus Sanchez & Bryan De La Cruz, OF: $3,300 – I really don’t need two write ups here. Sanchez and de la Cruz are facing a beatable CIN SP and they get a huge park upgrade going to CIN. They are both near the top of the leaderboards for EV and barrel rate and the K rates are manageable. I think we get a nice game from MIA and these two will definitely be involved.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
The games in BAL and New York may be affected by some rain before the game or in the beginning, but hitters should be just fine. There is some hot and humid weather in BOS with wind blowing out. That’s not a problem for strikeout pitchers, but those that cannot will be punished.
Doing Lines In Vegas
The Vegas totals make me like this slate even more tonight. I agree that NYM should be highly projected, but I don’t trust CINs offense even against the likes of Yonny Chirinos. Vegas likes the game in ARI, but those offenses are not standing out to me on a slate this big. Everywhere else sports very average O/Us that reflect a lack of confidence in any one spot. It makes it a nice slate to try stacking something you are seeing for yourself.
