| 12:04 |
: Good morning from Tempe, where it is somehow still 100 degrees every day. I’ve got an instructs game today at 11 so we’ll keep today’s chat pretty tight to the hour so I can prep my gear and drive there. I have a cat draped over one forearm right now, this is a very popular chat.
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| 12:04 |
: Always appreciate that chats, Eric! SD system has thinned quite a bit, who is the next potential dude behind De Vries
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| 12:05 |
: I think Humberto Cruz has a shot to be a big deal. Super smooth and projectable, could have premium command and a couple plus pitches.
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| 12:06 |
: Sounds like he’s been shut down for the year, but the HS kids from the draft class throw this weekend here in AZ so I’m hoping to see Mayfield then. He could also be an answer to your question.
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| 12:06 |
: how much does TJ knock Christian Scott down, FV-wise and future role-wise?
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| 12:06 |
: Still think he’ll start and be a mid-rotation guy (provided the rehab goes well, etc.).
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| 12:06 |
: Tough timing, though.
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| 12:07 |
: What do you think of Jaden Hamm after his first full season? Do you agree with BA that he should move into the Top 100?
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| 12:09 |
: Super interesting guy. Fifth rounder out of Middle Tennessee last year. Vert slot guy with huge fastball carry (like 21″ IVB)….
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| 12:10 |
: Part of why that number is so high is because of his release height, which is higher than average. Do I think he’s a Top 100 guy, i.e. does he have mid-rotation projection?…
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| 12:11 |
: I think fastball playability is a big deal and this guy has that for sure. He’s deceptive, he’s throwing strikes even though his arm swing is pretty long, and several of the Twins pitchers provide great examples of how fastball playability can carry your profile. Hamm’s secondary pitches don’t look as nasty as their performance stats (like miss rates and stuff) make them look on a spreadsheet….
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| 12:12 |
: i do think to some extent he’s living off deception versus low minors hitters and his secondary stuff will be stress tested as he climbs…
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| 12:12 |
: Not crazy to 100 him, but I feel comfortable taking another few weeks to commit to a grade for him.
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| 12:12 |
: Are there any players you’re particularly excited to see in the AFL, either because you think it’ll show their improvements or help you hone your opinion?
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| 12:15 |
: So many. Can Henry Bolte hit? How will Zyhir Hope deal with playing guys several years older than him? Where do Gino Groover and Jett Williams play defense? etc
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| 12:16 |
: who’s rebuild do you like more: The Nats or Pirates?
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| 12:16 |
: Washington, mostly because Pittsburgh hasn’t had a Soto to trade
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| 12:16 |
: Why do the Padres have a higher chance of winning the WS than the Dodgers on the playoff odds even with Dodgers clinching the division?
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| 12:17 |
: Good question, I guess it considers the quality of their team to be superior? I think the Dodgers are incredibly vulnerable and if I were putting my thumb on the scale I’d say they’re a better WS bet, too.
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| 12:18 |
: Can Ben Rice hit enough for 1b? At least strong side platoon?
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| 12:20 |
: Not in an everyday capacity, I don’t think he’s the long term answer to replacing an aging Rizzo or anything like that. I have a bench weapon grade on him. Guys with that much power from the left side are useful, but at his age the window for that is going to be narrow. High end outcome he ends up being a 40 (like a Luke Voit type of peak with all those K’s) for a couple years.
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| 12:21 |
: Not saying this applies to you, Rico but a lot of Yankees fans get got by the way their minor league hitters have performed at Trenton/Somerset and Scranton. Remember Diego Castillo‘s numbers? Hoy Park‘s numbers? Estevan Florial‘s numbers? Gotta make this adjustment, Yankees internet.
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| 12:22 |
: On a macro level, what are some of the main things you look for when scouting the AFL? How does it differ from scouting the minors?
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| 12:23 |
: There’s more of an opportunity to scout makeup when you see them same guys for six consecutive weeks. But there have been times I’ve been burned by that. Kyle Tucker didn’t look like he cared to be here at all, for instance. Some guys are gassed. The context of the look is definitely different than sitting on a series in May…
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| 12:25 |
: Others specifics of my AFL approach: Go see the sexy, famous pitchers asap in case something happens and they get shut down. Prioritize west valley teams coming east, SRF often loses the tiebreaker as where I go because that stadium generates data i can access even if i’m not there…
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| 12:25 |
: Hi Eric, what’s your thoughts on Luis Merejo? Good performance in ACL and Lynchburg with pretty high EVs this year.
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| 12:26 |
: Hit tool has been pretty suss in my looks. Fuky, long swing that I buy could become more traditional looking as Merejo matures and shortens up.
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| 12:26 |
: Do you think given Polanco’s performance this year that the Mariners will start with Cole Young at second?
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| 12:27 |
: I think he if rakes in he AFL he’ll be tee’d up for that, yes. Polanco looked pretty ragged on both sides of the ball for most of the year. Glad he’s gotten a few middle/middle mistakes to crush here the last couple weeks.
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| 12:27 |
: What, if anything, does a crazy MLB hot streak for a disappointing but young prospect like Luisangel Acuna mean for your evaluatioin?
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| 12:29 |
: I think in Luiangel’s case it continues his career-long trend of running hot/cold. I saw him in August and I thought he looked better than his numbers. He’s gonna be a good utility guy. I don’t think he’s a star.
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| 12:30 |
: Do you think there is a systemic overrating of Dodgers pitching prospects? They seem to all throw hard and then break. What was the last prospect that was actually developed by them into a successful big leaguer?
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| 12:32 |
: Uhhh I’m not sure they break at a rate any worse than the rest of the league, ya know? I feel confident saying their guys in the minors tend to get better, tend to throw harder and improve their changeups in a profound way. I see what you’re saying about a lack of homegrown guys but you can’ ignor them having the guys to trade for Mookie or whoever else, which they’ve done a ton of. I also think we should give he Miller/Stone/Wrobo/Knack/Edgardo, etc group longer to air out…
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| 12:33 |
: Article on the Athletic today about the Cardinals and the recent downturn in their ability to produce quality, homegrown supporting major leaguers, which is mainly attributed to an under-resourced dev department. Do you have any additional information to share there – are they doing something really wrong, or is this just a case of taking some risks on young guys with questions (Gorman, Walker) and then not having those guys work out just yet? I suppose their habit of trading away good outfielders for very little doesn’t help.
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| 12:37 |
: I haven’t yet read that just yet. Keep in mind that from living in AZ and most often visiting the Gulf Coast when I visit FL that the Cardinals day to day Dev ops are as much of a black box to me as any org’s. On paper they don’t coax high end stuff out of their pitchers. They draft a lot of generic guys like McGreevy, who’s fine but has a low ceiling. Their entire staff is comprised of guys like that. They have absolutely failed at triaging outfielders but I have also liked the guys they have (Walker, V Scott) who haven’t hit well.
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| 12:37 |
: Thoughts on the potential NCAA D1 scholarship increase / roster reduction? With that and NIL, will this lead to MLB farmining out development to the colleges?
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| 12:37 |
: Yes, I believe that’s a goal of the league.
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| 12:37 |
: thank you for chatting this morning what do you think the Mariners paln is for Harry Ford? Do they start getting him reps in the outfield next year with an eye towards being a part time catcher in 2026?
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| 12:39 |
: I think we see OF reps just in case things play out in the way you describe circa ’26, but his impact is greatest as a catcher and I think it’s more likely he gets dealt than I do him becoming like a Varsho type in SEA.
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| 12:39 |
: How did Bleday turn it around?
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| 12:40 |
: I suppose I’m hesitant to say he has done so in a permanent way. But I haven’t dug into that one. I could right now but it’d take most of the remaining 20 minutes of chat…
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| 12:40 |
: Way way way less fastball swing and miss this year
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| 12:41 |
: IDK if he made a mechanical adjustment or anything to get there but that’s a big thing at first glance
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| 12:41 |
: who else in baseball/prospect writing do you follow/read?
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| 12:42 |
: I’ve mostly stopped. I believe groupthink is a profound issue in our niche industry and social media made/makes it worse. If I get married again Kiley might be in my wedding party but I surely dgaf what he thinks about Sal Stewart.
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| 12:43 |
: Do you have any insights on the international signing prospects?
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| 12:45 |
: Right now I have a few dozen “Player X is connected to Team Y for $Z in 202Whatever” for big money dudes the next three years or so.
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| 12:45 |
: less reports on those players though
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| 12:45 |
: Alright, I’m probably not going to use Craig Yoho or Jacob Misiorowski in the postseason … but does 1, both, or neither make the Opening Day roster next year?
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| 12:46 |
: Just because the way 40 man roster dynamics tend to influence decision making: Neither
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| 12:46 |
: Don’t roster them until injuries force you to.
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| 12:46 |
: Do you think Kristian Campbell has star upside or is he more of a surefire regular type?
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| 12:47 |
: Have I gone from high guy to low guy on him in like 2 months? His swing is pretty weird. I think he requires more deep, deep analysis against upper-level stuff to say either of those.
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| 12:47 |
: What do you make of the performance by Kumar Rocker this year? What do you see going forward for him?
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| 12:48 |
: Pretty small sample of health, I’d be hesitant to alter my forecast a ton. we’ve been here before, this guy has fastball playability issues and a very long track record of injury and I’m cautious not to overreact
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| 12:49 |
: does the top prospect landscape feel short on talent to you? it reads like the writeups and profiles for most top10-25 range prospects feel like they should be placed half a grade lower (xavier isaac and marcelo mayer come to mind, both have considerable offensive warts and athletic / speed limitations).
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| 12:49 |
: Yes, I agree with this
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| 12:49 |
: What do you make of the season that Xavier Issac had at AA given his Top 100 rank at #6 and does reps at RF impact your projection at all?
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| 12:50 |
: I think he’s going to have stupid power and be a real force despite elevated strikeouts. His body looks way, way better now than at any other time as a prospect and it wouldn’t surprise me if he’s mobile enough to develop in RF.
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| 12:50 |
: hi Eric, just wanted to say thanks for holding this chat. We miss you!
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| 12:51 |
: I’m back now, Travis and I have been working on 2025 draft stuff and that should be fully baked soon. Then I’ll do International players and then start lists again. I anticipate starting with an East Valley cluster of orgs and then doing the entire Gulf Coast of Florida.
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| 12:52 |
: has Charlie Condon’s putrid pro debut confirmed any of the worries you had about him pre draft? Or is it just too early to judge
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| 12:53 |
: Too early. Bat looked slow in Spokane, though. Think I’ll see him today. The guy’s had a long year. Even though I was skeptical pre-draft I’m trying to be disciplined and not flag plant on him sucking just because he has for a couple weeks.
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| 12:53 |
: Nothing for you to answer here Eric just wanted to say how much I appreciate these and have for years no matter how seldom you have the time to do them.
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| 12:53 |
: They’re officially back on the weekly docket y’all.
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| 12:53 |
: Does Baldelli survive this collapse? Will the owners force them to deal Lopez?
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| 12:54 |
: I can’t speak to the latter but things felt bad enough here at the end that I do worry a head will need to roll.
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| 12:54 |
: Did you get any looks at Angel Cepeda for the ACL Cubs this year?
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| 12:54 |
: Yes, just okay in my looks but beloved by several of my sources.
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| 12:55 |
: If you had to guess, how much overlap is there between the people you source from and the people other sites like BA source from?
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| 12:58 |
: Moderate? I definitely know of several individual people who influence both. I would guess I’m less likely to give weight to an org’s farm director’s thoughts on his own club than Pipeline/BA, just too much bias and I’m not interested in that. Would rather put my own stamp on it.
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| 12:58 |
: thoughts on Lawrence Butler going forward as an above average player and fantasy asset?
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| 12:59 |
: He’s a good little player, gamer type with feel to hit. limited physical tools. Let’s see how strong he can get.
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| 12:59 |
: I’m reading Future Value now, it’s an excellent primer to understanding how orgs work their farms – if you could make updates in a second edition, what would you change or add?
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| 12:59 |
: More on visual machine learning and the integration of biomechanics and video analysis.
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| 1:00 |
: Plus thoughts on all the changes to college athletics
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| 1:00 |
: our world really does change a lot, very fast, all the time
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| 1:01 |
: I’m gonna try to machine gun thru a handful before I split…
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| 1:01 |
: Great questions this week, btw
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| 1:02 |
: lots of good ones I won’t be able to get to, questions about KBO players and Aiva Arquette and everything.
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| 1:02 |
: Any new thoughts on Vientos? Either at 3B or offensively?
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| 1:03 |
: Guys like him tend to be volatile year to year. I’m happy he’s doing well but if you told me he was going to have a rough ’25 I’d believe you.
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| 1:03 |
: Do all teams still use the FV scale? Or have some moved on to different evaluation methods?
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| 1:04 |
: Some teams use 20-80 scale but not quite in the same way as I use FV, often putting a more ceiling-based grade on a guy. Some teams use a scale like this:
A1, A2 B1, B2 C1, C2 D1…you get the idea. |
| 1:05 |
: Where like a C1 is my 45, a B1 is my 55, feel me?
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| 1:05 |
: What do the A’s do with their glut of mostly back of the rotation starters (Sears, Estes, Bido, Spence, Ginn, Harris, Muller, Basso, Hoglund)?
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| 1:05 |
: I think you retain as many of them as possible and make spring ’25 decisions based on maximizing retentions and option years.
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| 1:06 |
: Muller prob a ‘pen guy, Harris on the bubble, I gotta check in on Hoglund. Rest of the guys are comfortably in my mix if I’m them.
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| 1:06 |
: Will I be a legit mlb starter or bench piece at best?
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| 1:06 |
: Can you play more than just 2B?
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| 1:06 |
: Bueno
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| 1:07 |
: You mentioned zyhir hope earlier do you have any other thoughts on him cause he wasn’t even in the others of note in your dodgers list? sorry if this comes across poorly never done this before
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| 1:08 |
: No worries, I published the Dodgers list before they traded for him and then he was hurt when I saw the Rancho kids during the spring. He’s just missing, that’s a failure to update on my part.
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| 1:08 |
: Yet another big offseason for the Reds. How would you proceed given the potential logjam in the infield and the obvious need for a big bat in the OF? Would you be comfortable moving say Arroyo, Collier, and/or Stewart for the right bat?
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| 1:09 |
: I’d be comfortable moving the two corner guys you mentioned more than Arroyo. Stewart especially I feel like will be overvalued by teams who heavily weigh his data (which is very good)..
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| 1:09 |
: What do we make of Ethan Salas‘ year? Ceiling has been reduced or is making a ton of mechanical adjustments, what say you?
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| 1:09 |
: I’ll end on this one…
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| 1:10 |
: .234/.322/.306
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| 1:11 |
: That is Aldey Rutchsman’s freshman line at Oregon. He was 19. Salas, who is at High-A, turns 19 next June I think. I’m being patient.
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| 1:12 |
: ok everyone, please come back with me at Noon ET next Friday for another chat. Thank you so much for your questions today and for reading and supporting the site.
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Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and currently lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent four years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Info Solutions and two contributing to prospect coverage at ESPN.com. Previous work can also be found at Sports On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.
