2:31	Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks!

2:32	Jay Jaffe: Welcome to the first leg of our staff Wild Card chat. I just updated my Padres-Braves preview to reflect Chris Sale being left off the roster, and both Bryce Elder and A.J. Smith-Shawver being included as possible Game 1 options for later tonight.

2:32	Jay Jaffe: I believe Ben Clemens and Matt Martell will be joining us here shortly, with Dan Szymborski and Davy Andrews coming along later

2:33	Jay Jaffe: Our first game today pits the upstart Tigers against the deathless Astros, with likely AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal starting against the battle-tested Framber Valdez

2:33	Ben Clemens: Hey Jay, hey everyone

2:33	Jay Jaffe: Hello, Ben!

2:34	Ben Clemens: Looking forward to a great game today

2:34	SD Sports Fan: Thank you to the one fangraphs writer who picked the Braves. ESPN/Athletic was a clean sweep which makes me extremely nervous with the SD sports history.

2:34	Ben Clemens: You’re welcome!

2:34	Ben Clemens: I too felt weird about a clean sweep

2:36	Ben Clemens: It’s very weird for Justin Verlander to not be on the Astros roster – but I understand why it’s the case

2:36	Bob: If the underdog teams wins the first game in a three game series, how much does that move the needle for those teams to pull off an upset?

2:36	Ben Clemens: Let’s say you’re a huge underdog, 33% in every game

2:37	Ben Clemens: Before the series, you’d be like 25%** to pull it off, just assuming i.i.d

2:37	Ben Clemens: Win the first game, and you’re 55%

2:37

Jay Jaffe: Here’s my preview of Padres-Braves. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/nl-wild-card-series-preview-san-diego-padr… I never considered picking Atlanta to win given the state of their pitching staff, but if they can steal Game 1, the Padres could be in real trouble. They don’t hit lefties, and Max Fried is the obvious choice to start Game 2 on four days of rest.

2:38	Justin: How does it make you guys feel to hear your playoff odds cited constantly on national tv?

2:38	Jay Jaffe: It’s always cool to hear our/see work cited

2:39	Ben Clemens: Completely agree

2:39	Archer: Who had “Andy Ibanez batting cleanup in a postseason game” on their preseason bingo card?

2:39	Jay Jaffe: pretty sure the Easter Bunny had it.

2:39	Ben Clemens: The Detroit and Kansas City lineups are really something else

2:39	Ben Clemens: I did the O’s/Royals preview and I just couldn’t imagine all the players I had to write about

2:40	Ben Clemens: Yuli Gurriel?!? In this economy?!

2:41

Jay Jaffe: The funniest part of my SD-ATL preview was in cycling through the Braves’ three reported options for Game 1. I forgot Ian Anderson even existed. Poor guy faded and was optioned in late 2022, then underwent TJ surgery last April. Was digging into minor league statcast data on him and, boy, he is not ready to return to prime time.

2:42	Justin: About the braves, I feel like they’ve had a lack of depth for years without addressing it. Remember them starting a rookie with a few career innings in the world series? This keeps happening

2:43

Ben Clemens: When we wrote about depth before the year, we highlighted the Braves for this exact reason. They’re extremely shallow, in terms of the delta between their best players and the way the lineup looks if those players need to be replaced. But on the other hand, they’re resilient, in that a Braves team missing damn near everybody still made the playoffs

2:43	Ben Clemens: I’m not really sure which of those two is a better way of describing them

2:43	Jay Jaffe: The Rasputin of playoff teams

2:44	NG: Seems like a perfect day for Atlanta Jesse Chavez (the definitive best Jesse Chavez) to throw 5 scoreless

2:44	Ben Clemens: I was shocked not to see him in either game yesterday

2:44	Jay Jaffe: i fully expect to see a lot of him in this series

2:45	Jay Jaffe: that guy is never going to say no to taking the ball

2:45	Doug: Are the Padres holding back Cease for a winner-take-all/NLDS Game 1 or just trust King/Musgrove more at this point?

2:45	Jay Jaffe: I think they’d like the option of opening the DS with Cease and they trust the other two. Both have thrown VERY well in the 2nd half

2:46	Jeremy: Is “situational hitting” a repeatable skill that the Guardians have in spades? Or are they really a .500 team that just so happened to cluster their hits to an extraordinary extent?

2:46	Ben Clemens: I’d say that this is a million dollar question, but it’s more dollars than that. Trust me, lots of people have tried to find mathematical evidence of this as a repeatable skill, and haven’t been able to find it

2:47	Ben Clemens: That doesn’t mean that it does not exist. It does mean that the effect size is likely small

2:47	Ben Clemens: I’m fairly sure it exists to a non-zero extent…. it’s just, not to an extent where you can look at a team and go ‘oh, yep, add five wins to their projection b/c they know how to hit behind the runner’

2:47	Jay Jaffe: Yeah. I think that there are players better equipped for the situation wrt focus and mental state, but the variance on batted ball results still makes it very hard to find a consistent effect

2:48	Ben Clemens: I don’t know what Strauss is, but I’m fairly sure I’ll be really tired of it within a day

2:49	Bunk: Which team that didn’t make the playoffs do you think would have been the toughest out had they made it in?

2:49	Jay Jaffe: That Mariners rotation would have given them a real shot, i think.

2:49	Ben Clemens: Agreed, Jay. Nightmare rotation to face.

2:49	Ben Clemens: ’30 home runs will come real easy’ has been declared for Spencer Torkelson, btw. I’d want to learn more about the fences in Toledo before I made that prediction so confidently

2:50	Guest: If your team had to win one playoff game, who would you want starting? I think I’d go Paul Skenes, myself.

2:50	Ben Clemens: Yeah, Skenes for me. I’ve been completely Skenes-pilled at this point.

2:51	Jay Jaffe: Well it ain’t Chris Sale…

2:51	Ben Clemens: It could be! Your wants would just be ignored

2:52	Jeremy: Feels like a pretty top-heavy playoffs? FG combined WS odds for Phils/Yanks/Dodgers/Astros/Padres is 70% or so, but feels like it should be even higher? Every other team outside those five just feels pretty short on talent and/or has some giant hole.

2:53	Ben Clemens: It feels that way. My counterpoint would be: baseball playoffs are extremely small sample. Weirdo teams win all the time. The Rangers last year were long shots. The Braves in ’21, Nats in ’19, etc.

2:54	Jay Jaffe: Every one of those teams except the Dodgers has impressive rotation depth, and their lineup has been so good lately.

2:52	Guest: Which team’s post-season appearance is most surprising to you? Lots of potential options in KC, DET, NYM, etc

2:53	Jay Jaffe: By our preseason odds, the Royals at 13.2% were the biggest longshot, with the Tigers and Mets both more than double those odds. I’m still pretty shocked by all three, frankly.

2:53	Ben Clemens: The Tigers have succeeded in a way we didn’t expect, but I feel like they were buzzy coming into the year

2:54	Ben Clemens: The Royals? I did NOT see this one coming

2:54

Jeremy: Counterpoint to “the Mariners would’ve been a nightmare to face if they’d made the playoffs”: if the Mariners were really such a nightmare to face, they’d have come a lot closer to making the playoffs. I highly doubt that teams with great starting pitching tend to outperform their projections in the playoffs.

2:55	Jay Jaffe: The Mariners missed by one win and some tiebreaker stuff.

2:55	Ben Clemens: Eh…. they did come pretty close. They won one less game than the Royals and Tigers, and they didn’t get to dunk on the White Sox all year. Their offense has been a lot better after the acquisitions they made, too: if the current squad played a full season, they’d be in

2:56	Guest: Judge is going to win MVP, but was Witt more impactful for his team? He accounted for more than half of KC’s entire position-player fWAR!

2:57

Jay Jaffe: The Royals have so many holes. Their outfield is one disaster after another and they don’t get much offense from their infield either. The Yankees might have contended with somebody else playing center field (might not have won the division though) but the Royals with anything less than what Witt gave them would have missed the playoffs.

2:56	Ben Clemens: Not exactly sure what “impactful for his team” means so I tend to stay away from the question. The Royals would be a lot worse without Bobby Witt, if that’s what you’re going for

2:57	Jeremy: Is Bobby Witt Jr. the Steve-Carlton-in-1972 of position players?

2:58	Ben Clemens: Allow me to introduce you to Mike Trout

2:58	J: Valdez throwing a lot of meatballs. How long do you stick with him?

2:59	Ben Clemens: I’m looking at the Astros bullpen and not feeling GREAT about it, you know? I’m not excited about trying to get a ton of innings out of this bullpen

2:58	Jay Jaffe: the Royals do have a legitimate rotation, and that could keep them around.

2:59	Guest: Dodgers starters had a 5.80 ERA in the last month of the season, worst in the majors. Will they overcome the pitching woes to reach the WS?

3:00	Jay Jaffe: I sure as hell can’t see it unless Walker Buehler turns back the clock to 2021 and Landon Knack turns into Gerrit Cole

3:01	Ben Clemens: “the bottom of the lineup is huge for every team right now” is honestly a pretty reasonable playoff announcer take

3:01	Ben Clemens: I feel like it dodges the trope of “this team is SPECIAL b/c of their #7 hitter”

3:01	Ben Clemens: and leans into the fact that if your lower-tier guys hit well, you’ll tend to do well

3:01	Ben Clemens: respect for that one

3:02	Skooby: Please no Skubal injury

3:03	Ben Clemens: Hope he’s okay – also think he’s okay.

3:03	Ben Clemens: If you have to get hit by a line drive, that’s probably where you’d want it

3:03	Jessica: Javy Baez and his sub-replacement production got sent home and then the Tigers go on a massive run. It begs the question for whether he cuts get with over 70 mil remaining on his contract if he shows up in Spring and is still cratering in the Grapefruit league

3:04

Jay Jaffe: cutting bait on a replacement-levle Gio Urshela didn’t hurt either, though Urshela has done a better job in ATL filling in for Austin Riley.

I don’t know what’s gone on behind the scenes but Baez has turned into a terrible ballplayer. I hope surgery helps him rediscover his productive self. Hip surgery takes awhile to recover from so I can’t imagine spring is soon enough to know if he’ll be better.

3:05	Ben Clemens: doing a better job in Atlanta almost doesn’t count. EVERYONE does a better job in Atlanta

3:05	Jay Jaffe: Not 2024 Eddie Rosario

3:05	Ben Clemens: The exception that proves the rule

3:06	Jeremy: Skubal’s adrenaline is flowing. 94 mph slider to K Pena.

3:06	Ben Clemens: Those words hardly make sense together

3:07

McGraw45: I’m having nightmares about the Padres losing game 1 and facing Fried in game 2. I feel like that potential Padres disaster scenario isn’t being brought up enough (also because us Padres fans are very uncomfortable being the favorite in a playoff series – since when are we the favorite in anything??)

3:08	Ben Clemens: This seems like the most obvious way for things to go wrong for the Padres. Short series vs. a team with a G2 starter who could go 8 shutout

3:09	Ben Clemens: I think the Padres are likely to win. But I think the 20:1 split in our predictions isn’t representative of the right odds. The Braves are underrated at the moment b/c people compare them to the full-strength Braves

3:10	Jeremy: Are the Astros already at the point where they just decide to let Valdez go and hope for the best, because it’s not worth burning the bullpen to try to chase this game?

3:11	Ben Clemens: So, no, but I’m not sure their relievers are more likely to put up zeroes than he is. I’ve been pretty out on Framber this year, but I think that his recent change in arm angle and pitch usage is for real, I believe that he’s at least an above average starter again

3:12	Tigers Lineup: It seems like this Tigers team has that just-good-enough feel up and down the lineup – no real ceiling (aside from Riley) but decent floor throughout

3:12	Ben Clemens: As a long-time Cardinals fan and current resident of San Francisco…. I can relate to this feeling. These teams are fun to watch, imo.

3:14	Guest: Skubal K slider was at 9″ iVB so more cutter-y

3:15	Ben Clemens: That’s a classic overcooked slider shape. Skubal doesn’t really throw a cutter, but given that his slider is very gyro-y anyway, I think this is what happens when you throw it THAT hard.

3:14	Guest: Is Buster Posey qualified to be a GM? We know he helped negotiate the Matt Chapman extension, but that seems like a pretty small sample size on which to base the decision to turn over control of your team.

3:14

Jay Jaffe: Posey won’t be the GM, he’s the president of baseball operations. While there’s a lot of title inflation and functional overlap, the role is supposed to be bigger-picture. It’s still rather uncommon to see such a franchise favorite in that capacity; more often you get the kind of advisor role that Jeff Bagwell has in Houston.

My expectation is that the Giants will hire a GM under Posey, one with plenty of front office experience doing the nuts and bolts of the job.

3:15	Ben Clemens: If any Giants personnel are reading and think it should be a stats-y guy, I’d do it and I bet Jay would too

3:16	Jay Jaffe: LOL

3:16	Ben Clemens: If you’re looking for someone to alienate players while Buster relates to them, I’d definitely be good at that

3:16	Jay Jaffe: you’re better set up for that one both demographically and geographically. I’m too old for this ****

3:16	Close your eyes and listen: They listened to Framber’s curveball? I want a whale-sounds white noise equivalent CD of just curveballs!

3:17	Ben Clemens: The next hot spotify trend

3:17

Jay Jaffe: I love that. One of my favorite quotes that I came across while researching for The Cooperstown Casebook was Ty Cobb describing Walter Johnson’s fastball.

“The first time I faced him, I watched him take that easy windup. And then something went past me that made me flinch. The thing just hissed with danger.”

3:18	Ben Clemens: What sound do you think that crazy foul-fair ball Tyrone Taylor hit yday made?

3:18	Jay Jaffe: like a massé pool shot

3:18	Ben Clemens: It both had a TON of rpm and was misshapen, which I imagine would make for more noise

3:20

Bob: If it’s not Lindor against the Guardians in the WS, I’d like to see Flaherty against the Tigers. It’s wild the Tigers traded Flaherty and they might meet up in the WS. Has that happened before where one team traded a player at the deadline only to end up playing against them in the World Series?

3:21	Ben Clemens: This is probably a very tough question to research unless there’s a super easy answer that comes to mind easily. We could also get it with O’s Phillies for the record

3:21	Guest: Bengie Molina 2010

3:21	Jay Jaffe: ha, perfect. i knew there had been a recent one.

3:22	Jay Jaffe: “recent”

3:22	Guest: Ben ! Did you go to the last Coliseum game ?

3:22	Ben Clemens: I did not, life’s been busy the past few weeks. I watched it, though.

3:23

Jake: What do you make of the Padres going with both Wandy Peralta and Yuki Matsui while leaving Sean Reynolds off the roster? The Braves have crushed LHP and Reynolds has looked electric in his limited run. Is it just a case of wanting 4 LHP out of the pen and not trusting Reynolds over any of the RHP due to the walks?

3:25

Jay Jaffe: I didn’t have the space or time to get into the minutiae at the other end of the bullpen in my preview. Reynolds was fantastic but 1) we don’t always know everything about player health, which may have factored into the decision and 2) both Peralta and Matsui fared better against righties than lefties, with the latter showing almost no platoon split. they’re not afraid to put those guys out there.

3:26	Andrew Vargha: Josh Fields in 2017 too (the Yordan Alvarez trade)

3:26	Ben Clemens: I’m so tired of the ‘everything changes in October’ narrative

3:26	Ben Clemens: Like…. some things do

3:26	Ben Clemens: Most things do not

3:26	Jay Jaffe: the laws of thermodynamics are still applicable, guys

3:26	Ben Clemens: YOU DON’T KNOW ANYTHING ABOUT A GUY UNTIL YOU SEE IF HE CAN PERFORM UNDER THE BRIGHT LIGHTS

3:27	Ben Clemens: in fact, it’s possible to know quite a lot

3:27	Jay Jaffe: “you don’t know anything until you can make up stories about character and fortitude based on random variance across a small sample of opportunities.”

3:27	Ben Clemens: haha right Jay. When someone hits a grounder that takes one hop and pops out of the stadium, then we’re onto something

3:28	Jay Jaffe: exactly!

3:28	Ben Clemens: wait, 10th steal with only 1 CS. That doesn’t sound bad?

3:28	Ben Clemens: Like, he only allowed 11 stolen base attempts

3:29	Ben Clemens: Also, as I’m looking at the stats, those were last year’s numbers. This year, 6 steals and 1 CS

3:29	Ben Clemens: Statcast says he’s about average controlling the running game, feels right to me

3:30	McGraw45: How come the Guardians have lower World Series odds than the Padres? With the bye, the Guardians avoid a series where the odds of winning are at best 60-40, which seems like it should outweigh roster advantages

3:31	Ben Clemens: Basically b/c we think the Guardians played like a .500 team in BaseRuns (expected RS and RA based on the in-game results they accrued, but made context-neutral)

3:32	Ben Clemens: Or rather, not BECAUSE of that, but those underlying numbers feed projection models. We project the Guardians to not be as good of a team as the Padres. I’m not really sure how provable this is in one direction or the other, but if you’re wondering why, that’s why

3:31	Guest: Did we see that none of the Athletic writers predicted the Yankees or the Dodgers to win the WS lol

3:31	Jay Jaffe: Those number-crunching eggheads and their groupthink… wait a second!

3:32	Ben Clemens:

3:33	Lily: Do you send Valdez back out with his pitch count this high already?

3:34	Jay Jaffe: Yeah, only 70 and while he’s in the 3rd time through the order, the part he’s about to face isn’t exactly Manny-Ortiz-Nomar

3:35	Justin: How much of that second inning do you attribute to batted ball luck

3:35	Ben Clemens: Some… but the Tigers have squared him up well

3:35	Ben Clemens: That’s not fake

3:35	Ben Clemens: I’m not sure it’s very stable, but they’ve hit a lot of balls really hard today. Sure, maybe more of those should’ve turned into outs, but it’s not like every single one is a swinging bunt

3:35	Ben Clemens: The way Framber is pitching today, he surely deserves to have allowed some runs

3:36	Jeremy: Tigers radio color guy just now: “Those two guys have been such rocks in the outfield…” He meant it as praise, but…

3:36	Ben Clemens: MJ Melendez discussion on the Tigers broadcast, huh

3:37	5 Run Homer: A Rock in the Outfield: The Nick Castellanos Story

3:37	Jeremy: It may actually have been Nick Castellanos discussion.

3:38	Jay Jaffe: Rock in the Outfield: the post-Montreal phase of Tim Raines’ career

3:38	Jay Jaffe: (i rarely recall him being referred to as Rock when he was an Expo, though there exist Topps cards that counter that notion)

3:39	Matt: I don’t know how to resolve this situation, but MLB really needs to work on these game times. 2pm and 4pm start times on a Tuesday is just inexcusable.

3:39	Ben Clemens: I think they moved around the VP debate

3:39	Ben Clemens: or rather, they moved the games to avoid it

3:39	Jay Jaffe: on four-game days, you’re either going to get early starts or overlaps.

3:39	Davy Andrews: Hi everyone!

3:40	Jay Jaffe: there’s no pleasing everybody, and the voraciousness of the four-game consumers is not at the top of the “everybody” list

3:40	Jay Jaffe: hey Davy!

3:40	Bosoxforlife: How long does Skubal go assuming he continues to get the job done?

3:40	Ben Clemens: A relevant question right now

3:40	Ben Clemens: As an aside, I love when stadiums play the Kill Bill prompt when opposing pitchers are in trouble

3:41	Jay Jaffe: thanks for that reminder, Jeremy

3:41	Ben Clemens: I think that the Tigers are going to ride Skubal a long way, partially because he’s great and partially because their rest-of-series plan is going to be very bullpen-heavy

3:42	Guest: What’s up with Skubal?

3:42	Davy Andrews: He’s good? I think that’s the answer to your question. he’s quite good.

3:42	Ben Clemens: swinging strike rate

3:42	Ben Clemens: Davy, he threw a 94 mph slider/cutter thing earlier

3:43	Ben Clemens: the guy is JUICED up

3:44	Justin: Surprisingly low number of strikeouts if hes getting a lot of swinging strikes

3:44	Ben Clemens: 8 in 58 it looks like, before that last swing. The Astros have been REALLY aggressive and haven’t gotten in many deep counts

3:44	Davy Andrews: I’m not surprised. Dude is intense. I loved watching his last start. The F-Yeah that he released when he came off the mound was a thing of beauty.

3:45	Ben Clemens: “Petriello did it” is a lot like “Simpsons did it” but for baseball tweets

3:45	Ben Clemens: also he won an award for writing about the Simpsons. Everything is connected

3:46	Davy Andrews: That would make him so happy.

3:47	Jeremy: Re: the Astros being really aggressive, yes. But it’s not like there are any great alternatives, right? Choosing approaches against someone like Skubal is choosing among bad options.

3:47	Ben Clemens: Completely agree. It’s limiting their strikeouts but it’s not like it’s turning into great results

3:47	Davy Andrews: Also, all things considered, you’d rather make him throw more pitches. I’d rather face chaos than Skubal any day.

3:48	Ben Clemens: It’s a really interesting question

3:48	Ben Clemens: You get to swing at more in-zone fastballs that way

3:48	Ben Clemens: but yeah, in exchange, you get more PA’s of Skubal, that’s no good

3:48	Guest: Any thoughts on Chaim Bloom, Ben ?

3:49	Ben Clemens: I’m curious to see how things turn out. Generally liked his tactics on the Red Sox, and mainly disagreed with the team’s strategy, which can always be influenced by ownership. That said, that’s kind of a worry with the Cards as well, so….

3:49	Davy Andrews: I’m so curious what’s on his business card. It must look like a handyman’s. “Is your team busted? We can fix it!”

3:50	Tuesdays: How many baserunners do you think Valdez has left before he gets yanked?

3:50	Davy Andrews: Well, that answers that.

3:51	Jay Jaffe: the Bloom hiring and 2026 takeover plan is so weird. Not that a housecleaning and reckoning in STL isn’t overdue but you’d think they’d want to get a jump on it

3:51	Guest: Who is the most underrated player on one of the postseason teams? (And no, you can’t use the usual answer of JRam or Lindor.)

3:51	Jay Jaffe: Aaron Judge? (ducks)

3:51	Ben Clemens: Eugenio Suarez

3:51	Ben Clemens: oh, playoff teams

3:52	Ben Clemens: sorry DBacks fans

3:52	Ben Clemens: I still had ‘playoff contenders’ in my head

3:52	Ben Clemens: I think Kyle Tucker actually

3:52	Davy Andrews: I almost said Ketel Marte!

3:52	Ben Clemens: that dude is great

3:52	Guest: Astros don’t know they’re about to get Keith’d

3:52	Davy Andrews: How about William Contreras?

3:52	Jay Jaffe: I was just gonna say him, Davy

3:53	Jay Jaffe: Great two-way catchers are in very short supply these days and Contereras is among the best on both sides of the ball

3:53	NG: underrated: Willy Adames? or has he reached the “identified as underrated enough that he’s properly rated”

3:53	Ben Clemens: Yeah Adames is now properly rated imo

3:53	Tuesdays: Matt Vierling -Biased Tigers Fan

3:53	Tuesdays: Haha. Now Hinch can start his pinch-hitting shenanigans

3:53	5 Run Homer: Remember back in May when Kyle Tucker was gonna win the AL MVP

3:53	Davy Andrews: It’s really unfortunate. Guy has been great and was absolutely putting it all together. What a bummer.

3:53	Ben Schneider: O’s fans will say Jordan Westburg deserves more national attention

3:54	Jay Jaffe: one look at his defensive numbers might cool that discussion

3:54	Ben Clemens: I might be blinded by my own Westburg opinion, but I think he’s amazing. I had him absolutely boosted on the trade value list

3:55	Davy Andrews: I love him too. I remember that that was one of my comments to Ben when I saw how high he was on the trade value list.

3:54	Norm: Kerry Carpenter is underrated. He is a freaking beast

3:54	Guest: Jay, do you have any plans to go to a NY game ? In my experience, no environment quite like playoff games in the Bronx or Queens

3:55	Jay Jaffe: I am credentialed for both ballparks as is Matt Martell, so we’ll both get at least a taste, and possibly quite more if the Mets advance.

3:55	Guest: Who do you think gets AL ROY ?

3:56	Ben Clemens: I’d pick Gil, I suppose. He’s the betting favorite by a decent amount. But I feel like it’s a two-man race between him and Cowser, not the lopsided affair that markets are showing.

3:56	Jeremy: Re: the playoff environment in NYC, Philadelphia will see your decibel level and raise it.

3:58	Jay Jaffe: I think the noise level in the Bronx is much overrated — the reputation was earned at the old ballpark but the new one is so spacious and the early rounds it’s just not as full of fans. Still very fun to attend, whether as a fan or as media

3:57	Fan: So much of a short playoff series is based off of babip luck to the point that I wonder why we even bother to predict them

3:57	Davy Andrews: You’re not wrong, but I am a strong advocate of doing dumb, fun things. And it can also make you think about how one team matches up with another.

3:58	Guest: I must be one of the most casual/inattentive dues-paying fg members and this year I have paid very little attention. With that background I just checked the season pitching leaderboard (Skubal 2nd in WAR) and my god what is this mess/do I have an inadvertent filter applied?

3:58	Ben Clemens: It’s been a strange one.

3:59	Davy Andrews: If you can find the filter that goes back and fixes everybody’s UCL, please press the button.

3:59	NG: Is it possible to overrate how silly it is that Jackson Merrill switched to CF and has been a stud all around (particularly given how most young prospects need quite a bit of adjustment period lately)

3:59	Ben Clemens: Completely agree

3:59	Jay Jaffe: Such a great season, and really smooth transition both to a new position and to hitting major league pitching.

4:00	Guest: Without looking, who led SPs in fWAR in the last month of the season?

4:01	Jay Jaffe: Landon Knack

4:02	Davy Andrews: I know this is designed to trip us up, but I’m going chalk: Skenes?

4:02	Jay Jaffe: (mine was not a serious guess)

4:02	Ben Clemens: Haha this is gret

4:02	Ben Clemens: It’s Nick Martinez…. Gerrit Cole second

4:02	Ben Clemens: Remember 14 days ago when Yankees fans thought Gerrit Cole was league average forever?

4:02	Davy Andrews: Hey! I was pretty close!

4:03	South Detroit: On Gil, can he win ROY AND Comeback Player OF The Year since he missed nearly two seasons?

4:04	Davy Andrews: I don’t know the rules offhand, but I would assume so.

4:03	Jay Jaffe: Good question

4:03	Norm: Torkelson has got to be in the running for most overrated player in the postseason. He is seen as one of the faces of the Tigers while being one of their worst players.

4:05	Jay Jaffe: I get that he’s been largely disappointing but his return from the minors basically coincided with the Tigers’ run and he did put up a 125 wRC+ after coming back from his demotion, though more with great August production than September production

4:05	Brian: Tigers leaving too many guys on base and not cashing them in. Letting the Astros hang around.

4:05	Davy Andrews: I agree that scoring runs would be preferable.

4:06	5 Run Homer: Feel like nobody talked at all about how Anthony Santander (!) hit 44 home runs (!!) this season

4:06	Ben Clemens: Seriously. Very quiet 44, and also a very low-offense 44 somehow

4:06	Ben Clemens: “Empty homers”?

4:07	Jay Jaffe: I think one issue is that his game isn’t as multidimensional as the other big sluggers. 44 homers and not even 3.5 WAR, wow

4:06	Dan: 5-pitch inning for Skubal… I know the Astros are ultra aggressive, but that doesn’t seem ideal!

4:07	5 Run Homer: Turns out a .235 batting average still isn’t very good

4:07

Bob: Not really a playoff question, but as an NL fan, I liked seeing pitchers try to hit. How about a rule change where you pull a pitcher, you lose the DH for that game? No more opener shenanigans. And you make teams leave the starter in longer than 4 or 5 innings like this with Valdez out after 4.1 innings.

4:08	Davy Andrews: I’m not saying I don’t like it, but I think part of the argument for the universal DH was that it would keep pitchers from getting hurt, so it’d be really hard to say, “On second thought, we want to put you back in harm’s way.”

4:08	Jay Jaffe: That potential rule has been under discussion as a way of encouraging longer starting pitcher outings, but as Davy said there’s a bit of a disconnect in terms of the potential to cause more harm

4:08	NG: The nice thing about having some playoff races wrap up sooner, you get teams setting their rotations and end up with ace vs. ace (ragans-burnes, yes please)

4:08	MattStats5: No question, just LET’S….GO…..BIRDS! #Orioles2024

4:08	Mike: This Twins fan is rooting for the Tigers! I’ll not mention my team again for a few weeks….

4:09	Ben Clemens: Ragans Burnes is so exciting

4:10	5 Run Homer: I’m curious who fans of non-playoff teams are cheering for this year. Since the Jays fell apart I’ve kind of accidentally become a Mets fan, which isn’t any better for my health

4:10	Guest: This staff management is wild for Houston in this game

4:11	Reds Enjoyer: Reds fan here: rooting for the Guardians (in spite of their weird social media barbs at us!)

4:11	Jay Jaffe: wow, so the Braves are starting A.J. Smith-Shawver in Game 1

4:11	Dan: As a Mets fan who lives in Virginia and is blacked out from Orioles games on MLB TV, I’m really looking forward to watching them (even for potentially as few as 2 games)

4:11	Bosoxforlife: This Red Sox fan has an attachment to Francisco Lindor and will be rooting for the Mets.

4:11	Jacob: I’ve been a mets fan 35 years. It never gets better for health

4:11	Guest: Where would you rank PCA in CF’s for future? Is he for sure behind Jackson Merrill, Jackson Chourio and Julio Rodriguez?

4:12	Ben Clemens: I’m not sure what ‘for sure’ means but if I’m predicting their futures, I’d obviously have PCA fourth out of the group right now. By a lot. But is he 100% to have the worst career of the 4? No way

4:12	South Detroit: Ronel Blanco regression starts now?

4:12	Ben Clemens: I’m just hoping that something gets the booth to stop talking about batting average allowed

4:13	Davy Andrews: I learned why that stat gets used nonstop! Elias tracks it and makes it really easy to find, especially in splits.

4:14	Ben Clemens: Stupid Elias. At least gimme OBP and SLG against if you’re gonna give me one

4:13	Ben Clemens: Okay, two games are now going, sweet

4:13	Ben Clemens: Man, YouTube TV should really have a multi-view for these games

4:14	Bunk: I’m probably rooting for whoever wins the Royals/Orioles series.

4:15	Davy Andrews: Yeah, those two are very easy to root for.

4:14	Burnesed: How much does Burnes’s inability to hold runners affect his numbers?

4:15	Ben Clemens: According to Statcast (and I dunno, take this with a grain of salt b/c of the magnitude?) he’s cost himself 21 runs this year

4:15	Justin: Which ABC show are you most likely to start watching watch based on the commercials.

4:16	Davy Andrews: This is a fantastic question, and I can’t even begin to say that I have an answer. I have no answer at all. I couldn’t name one of them right now, but give me an hour or two.

4:17	Ben Clemens: High Potential for me. Sweet Dee plus a plot that’s going to give a ton of chances for the whole “smart person gets into hijinks” trope? I’m in

4:16	Ben Clemens: I say take with a grain of salt b/c in his career before now, he’d allowed 6 runs relative to average?

4:17	Ben Schneider: As someone who watches nearly every Orioles game, 21 runs sounds too high. The high leg kick definitely hurts him, but I doubt it’s that bad

4:17	Archer: 2024 has the highest % of relievers with the mullet/mustache combo since which year?

4:17	Jay Jaffe: 2004, Rod Beck’s final season.

4:18	Davy Andrews: Oh wow. I would’ve put it much earlier, but you’re probably right.

4:17	Ben Clemens: It’s truly wild that he allowed 33 steals this year

4:18	Guest: Will the Braves treat Lopez’s appearance yesterday as a normal between-start bullpen and keep him on schedule?

4:18	Jay Jaffe: I think so. I pencilled him in for Game 3

4:19	Guest: Switching to Royals/Orioles for Michael Kay reasons.

4:19	Davy Andrews: I love that Ben McDonald is on the call.

4:19	Ben Clemens: Important Mike Petriello correction coming in. 21 BASES, not 21 runs

4:19	Ben Clemens: which is…. 3 runs

4:20	Davy Andrews: Wow. I have never before felt bad for Yordan Alvarez, who is basically a perfect hitter, but after that last pitch? Poor guy.

4:20

Bosoxforlife: I am hoping Skubal keeps it together and goes all the way. Watching the past greats, Gibson, Seaver, Lolich and others carry their teams to championships was so much of what made the playoffs great. Gibson, for example, made 9 World Series starts and threw 8 CG’s. I would be happy to see one.

4:21	Guest: Is the TV zone just horrible or is this Royals/O’s ump not doing great?

4:22	Davy Andrews: It’s the TV zone. Maybe one missed call.

4:21	Cole Ragans: Is he possibly a robot? He looks like he was built in a lab devoted to designing pitchers. How did the Rangers let this guy go?

4:21	Guest: Ragans sitting 97…

4:22	Jay Jaffe: hey wow, i got the Royals-Orioles on ESPN loaded on my desktop computer without needing to re-log in or anything. The ZiPS odds on that were lower than for the Marlins making the playoffs.

4:22	Princess Leia: I think it’s worse hearing a radio call of Skubal callign the trainer out to the mound, than it would be to watch…

4:22	Burnesed: I figured Ragans would get an adrenaline boost for the playoffs, even if his velo had been trending down

4:22	South Detroit: Skubal…some gamesmanship to get a breather?

4:23	Davy Andrews: Nah. No way a guy throws a bunch of warmup pitches as part of his breather.

4:23	Bosoxforlife: The cynic in me smirked yesterday when Schwellenbach was yanked and the bullpen imploded. I hope Hinch has the courage to let Skubal go until he is knocked out, not because of some predetermined plan.

4:23	Ben Clemens: It’s amazing to me that Ragans was just very obviously a top 15 or so starter right away when he went to KC

4:23	Ben Clemens: and then this year….. he was just a top 15 starter?

4:23	Ben Clemens: like, exactly as you’d expect

4:23	Jay Jaffe: Can’t believe what a steal that was, Ben

4:24	Jay Jaffe: Tarik F. Skubal

4:24	Ben Clemens: I wrote about him this spring and it was like…. uh, yep, there’s nothing weird here, he has a bunch of good pitches

4:24	Guest: Gotta give Skubal at least one more right

4:26

Davy Andrews: Always a weird situation when somebody’s so clearly the ace a team depends on. I remember reading that Torre would always tell the Yankee hitters to take against Mike Mussina early on, because he knew the Orioles would leave him in too long, and they’d be able to score a bunch of runs when he ran out of gas.

4:24	Ben Clemens: Yeah I would

4:25	Ben Clemens: Yuli Gurriel, 5 hitter!!

4:25	Jay Jaffe: man, i thought we were done with Yuli Gurriel

4:26	Tuesdays: Skubal. What a beast. That’s probably it for him. Nails.

4:26	Yuri Gurriel: Yuri Gurriel is not done with you!

4:26	Ben Schneider: This guy was a stalwart with the Gwinnett Stripers

4:26	NG: Braves gave Yuli some run in AAA, but even they released him despite their injury carnage

4:26	Ben Clemens: broadcast tells me he brings them veteran experience

4:26	Ben Clemens: couldn’t they just record what Salvy says, and then play it to the half of the team that’s out of Salvy’s earshot?

4:27	Guest: This Royals lineup is brutal lol

4:28	Ben Clemens: I kept giggling when I was writing up the preview for this one. Like wow HE is still in baseball? over and over

4:27	Ben Clemens: Or just tell him to talk loud

4:28	Guest: How early is too early to make your platoon-based pinch-hitting moves? Tigers bringing in Keith in the 5th feels too soon if you don’t want him facing a lefty.

4:29	Ben Clemens: There’s no obvious rule of thumb. The better the guy you’re replacing is, the later you want to wait. The better the guy coming in is overall, the earlier you want him in. I think Keith is good enough that it’s reasonable to bring him in early

4:28	Jeremy: Tigers radio guys think Skubal’s done.

4:29	South Detroit: Sounds like Skubal done…down in clubhouse and Brieske warming up. Maybe Hinch would have went longer if Slubal didn’t tweak something last inning?

4:29	NG: Not a playoff team, but with respect to bad lineups: Did anyone happen to pull up the box score of white sox games near the end the season and just marvel at the OPS’s

4:29	Jay Jaffe: I couldn’t find my protective eyewear

4:29	Ben Clemens: We recorded an Effectively Wild yday where a bunch of us gave White Sox fun facts, and then James Fegan scored them using White Sox OPS’s

4:30	Davy Andrews: I’m psyched to listen to that. What a fun idea.

4:30	Ben Clemens: I did pretty well and all of my scores were between .640 and .660

4:30	NG: I am now greatly looking forward to reaching that EW episode

4:30	Dan: I want to do a study on the everyone in a given postseason who was said to give a team “veteran experience” and see how bad they were. Since I generally feel this is quipped mostly when someone is older and past their athletic prime

4:31	Davy Andrews: I feel confident that they say it about players who are still good too. It’s just an easy thing to say.

4:31	Davy Andrews: And right on cue, Tommy Pham makes a sliding catch in right field.

4:31	Dan Szymborski: Arrived has I.

4:32	Ben Clemens: Tommy Pham is just a delight

4:32	Davy Andrews: Please explain to me the belt thing.

4:32	Jay Jaffe: Hey Dan!

4:32	Ben Clemens: Every single play

4:32	Jay Jaffe: I see you’re covered with dust from the stats mine

4:32	Dan Szymborski: Jay. Ben. Davy.

4:32	Dan Szymborski: And a blueberry muffin

4:32	Guest: There’s definitely comedy in the White Sox going 5/6 with 120 losses

4:33	Davy Andrews: This is an excellent point. I would love to see a feature article about it.

4:33	Jay Jaffe: well, the universe placing the goddamn Angels in their path was quite the setup.

4:33	Dan Szymborski: A cat’s eating blueberry muffin crumbs off of me. Classy.

4:33	Ben Schneider: Hi Dan, are you confident or nervous right now?

4:33	Dan Szymborski: Me or above Dan?

4:34	Dan Szymborski: I’m too jaded at this point to have genuine emotions.

4:34	Guest: Blanco is getting 21 IVB on the fastball seems good

4:34	South Detroit: Whitesox starting nine in game 162…combined -2.5 fWAR on the season

4:34	Ben Clemens: So you’re saying they sent the A squad out there

4:35	Jay Jaffe: That tracks. Based on the definition of replacement level (.294 win%), you’d expect the team to win 48 games so you’d estimate they were about 7 below that overall.

4:34	Ben Schneider: You Dan, the Orioles fan

4:34	Dan: If I’m above Dan, I’m just happy to be here

4:34	Dan Szymborski: I don’t know if other Dan is an Orioles fan

4:34	Dan Szymborski: While I’m not nervous, I would be more pleased if there were to be a run differential favoring Baltimore

4:35	Slapshot: I wonder how serious those Skubal trade discussions ever got, and how happy the Tigers are they didn’t move him in July….

4:35	Dan Szymborski: I got the impression that nobody made an offer that remotely tempted the Tigers

4:36	Ben Clemens: It’s like the guy in a keeper league who puts, say, Aaron Judge on the block every summer

4:36	Jay Jaffe: I doubt they got serious. you rebuild to hope you come up with a Skubal to anchor your rise to respectability, you don’t cash him in once you approach the apron of that.

4:36	Ben Clemens: Like sure, there’s a return where he’d get moved

4:36	Ben Clemens: No one is offering that return

4:36	Dan Szymborski: I’m quite bummed; voice AI just doesn’t understand how to do a Bane voice.

4:37	Dan: Other Dan is a Mets fan, but is pulling for the Orioles (just to close the loop on this one)

4:37	Guest: (Possibly) hot take: Teams shouldn’t be able to watch replay before challenging. I don’t like these challenges looking at whether a hand came of the base for a millisecond

4:37	Davy Andrews: I actually think that reducing the decision time has worked really well.

4:37	Dan Szymborski: So am I me or him?

4:37	Princess Leia: I absoluely loved that Detroit broke the emergency glass with Jobe when they realized how close the postseason was.

4:37	Burnesed: I know he got some hits recently, but is there a scenario where Adley sits in favor of O’Hearn or other at DH?

4:38	Davy Andrews: I’d be surprised at this point.

4:39	Davy Andrews: It’s not like this just started happening.

4:38	Ben Clemens: Yeah, no way man

4:38	Ben Clemens: For better or worse, your stars play

4:38	Jay Jaffe: agree

4:39	Davy Andrews:

4:39	MattStats5: Ragans and Burnes are both dealing!

4:39	Ben Clemens: He’s gassed, pretty clearly, I think

4:39	Jay Jaffe: i wonder if he’s playing through something

4:39	Ben Clemens: his power numbers are just GONE

4:40	Ben Clemens: but like… I’m giving him the chance to play back into it

4:40	Ben Clemens: if I’m them

4:40	Ben Clemens: he’s capable of great heights

4:41	Guest: Adley’s wrist got hit by a foul ball in June and he hasn’t been the same since

4:41	Jay Jaffe: I had forgotten about that. explains a lot

4:41	Burnesed: But more importantly, why does “gassed” mean “tired” when gas is fuel?

4:41	Ben Clemens: now THAT is a great observation

4:42	Dan Szymborski: Maybe it refers to WWI soldiers being mustard gassed?

4:42	Ben Clemens: ring around the rosy level grim

4:42	Jay Jaffe: it’s a lazy shorthand for out of gas, and more appropriately also used to indicate full of gas.

4:42	Jay Jaffe: flammable vs. inflammable

4:42	Dan Szymborski: lots of our phrases a grim

4:42	Ben Clemens: seeeeeeee willlllllll vessssssst

4:42	Ben Clemens: is stuck in my head every time he pitches

4:42	Dan Szymborski: how often do people describe something as “it was like world war III”

4:43	Don E. Bassbahl: Let’s eliminate the checked-swing rule. Make it so that only clear, full swings (like that bat head passes the base on the same side as the active batter’s box) are strikes. WHO’S WITH ME?

4:43	Orbit: Baseball is full of these things. “Ball” originated from “no ball”, which is terminology still used in cricket.

4:44	Mike: gassed was originally used in Britain to mean drunk…..maybe from that somehow?

4:44	Guest: Ragans velo dropping

4:44	Jay Jaffe: velo drop, velo drop, oh velo gonna drop on you-oo-oo

4:45	Davy Andrews:

4:45	Jay Jaffe: Noted baseball scout Toots Hibbert is concerned about that graph

4:45	Ben Clemens: I really don’t understand the obsession with ‘you never know how to match up with the bullpen because Hinch does whatever he wants’

4:45	MattStats5: Dan…my fellow Birds fan! Watching from my VA home, but I have Pickles on my mind.

4:45	Ben Clemens: like…. mostly he’s going to use lefties against your lefties and righties against your righties, and your dudes need to hit well anyway

4:46	Dan Szymborski: I don’t really do Pickles. I’m past the age where I enjoy bars packed ass to ass

4:46	Guest: My friends and I use most any noun+ed to mean drunk. Pitted, dickered, starred, busted, etc.

4:46	Davy Andrews: Oh man, Walltimore strikes again.

4:47	Davy Andrews: Westburg hammered that one.

4:48	Davy Andrews: 100.2 mph, homer in 28 ballparks.

4:47	MattStats5: Me too, but my visits to Camden requires a Natty Boh pounder from there. I only drink about half of it cause its God-awful, but still….

4:47	Mateo: Do you think Will Vest dreams of adding a vesting option to a future FA contract so that we can use the phrase “Will Vest’s vesting option will vest”?

4:48	Davy Andrews: I think people generally don’t love name wordplay when it’s about their own name.

4:48	Dan Szymborski: What doesn’t help is I have never liked really packed crowds. I have a real inability to filter out unnecessary sounds; I hear everyone’s conversation at the same time

4:48	Ben Schneider: I thought that ball would drop when Melendez got turned around

4:48	Dan Szymborski: So the busier a group is, the quieter I am, because I just have trouble being in the right conversation

4:49	Guest: What are your thoughts on Keith Law’s take that Abreu & Wells are overrated by WAR because they serve as platoon bats and so should be farther behind Westburg in ROY voting than WAR indicates ?

4:49	Ben Clemens: Generally concur, but also, I don’t think it’s a huge deal

4:49	Ben Clemens: I think it’s more the case for Abreu than for Wells, b/c catchers need that much time off anyway

4:49	Jay Jaffe: i think ROY is an award where you can let go of WAR a bit more because the volume of opportunity may be very different (see Skenes)

4:50	Ben Clemens: strong side catcher platoon is pretty much just a catcher workload

4:50	Dan Szymborski: I don’t think it’s a big deal honestly. He’s already getting 0 WAR for the PA he’s sitting for

4:52	Princess Leia: The Tigersradio broadcast is delightful today. They were giggling like kids about Skubal’s pitching.

4:53	Davy Andrews: I think the broadcasters clearly enjoying the game is such an underrated part of what make a broadcast fun.

4:52	Ben Clemens: Just to set expectations, I’m heading out after the Tigers/Astros game ends. Haven’t had lunch yet and I’m starving

4:53	Davy Andrews: What’s for lunch?

4:53	Ben Clemens: I meant to cook last night to make leftovers but I ran out of time. So I’m gonna get a Greek wrap from an awesome nearby restaurant (Souvla, for anyone from the Bay)

4:53	MattStats5: The new left field wall, ladies and gentlemen.

4:53	Jay Jaffe: i’m out at the top of the hour here

4:53	5 Run Homer: We’re really doing mid-game interviews with the manager in the postseason, hey?

4:53	Davy Andrews: I live here.

4:54

A Name: 28/30 parks for that Westburg ball (and 19/30 for Salvy). I continue to find that change to the stadium baffling. I do wonder if fans/teams see something almost shameful about having hitters’ parks. As someone who follows the Yankees, seeing the constant “it’s a little league park!” thing is really annoying. But both teams get to play there! And I’d be annoyed if the Yankees pushed RF way back.

4:54	Jay Jaffe: too many homers

4:54	Guest: Souvla so greasy though

4:54	Davy Andrews: Wow. Shots fired.

4:54	Dan Szymborski: Man Sam Elliott’s gotten old

4:54	Ben Clemens: I mean, they’re not wrong

4:54	Princess Leia: Oops! I forgot! Help us Obi-won Clemonobi! You’re Chris Sale’s only hope!

4:54	Burnesed: Second that Souvla-motion

4:55	Ben Clemens: I actually prefer the veggie sandwich to the chicken wrap most days. The chicken is a grease bomb. A delicious one, but still greasy

4:55	MattStats5: Agree, Jay. Before the move back, that left field wall was Little League.

4:55	Dan Szymborski: I definitely hate the wall sometimes in moments in MLB the Show when you have to hit a homer with a righty

4:55	Dan: are the white sox better than the astros?

4:56	Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure the white Sox are better than the Biggio-Bagwell Astros…NOW

4:56	Sam Elliott: I challenge this Szymborski character to a 40-yard dash. Name the time and place.

4:56	bringbackpologrounds: Will Lindor catch Ripken for most career HR hit while playing SS?

4:57	Davy Andrews: This is very much a Dan/Jay question, but when I wrote about him a couple months ago, I called his chance “small but legitimate.”

4:58	Jay Jaffe: he’s at 241, needs 345 to tie, i’d say yeah it’s very doable.

4:57	Dan Szymborski: I think Quatraro’s manager of the year award got eaten by the Tigers

4:57	Burnesed: Sweet potato salad

4:57	Ben Clemens: Don’t forget olives

4:58	Dan Szymborski: I can open it quick, though the data is from 9/16

4:59	Guest: I’d rather get RT, personally

4:59	Ben Clemens: Okay last SF sandwich post. RT is good. I like a rotation of the two when I want a lunch sandwich. RT is greasy too, but delicious.

4:59	Ben Schneider: I still play MLB the Show 20, so I have to remind myself sometimes which dimensions Camden actually uses

4:59	Jay Jaffe: Kind of sad that Lindor missed 30-30 but hitting a game-winning HR >>>>>>>>>>>>>> getting on base and having a SB opp

5:00	Dan Szymborski: LIndor’s only 104 HR behind Ripken as a SS

5:00	Jay Jaffe: yeah that’s what i meant

5:00	Jay Jaffe: seems v doable

5:00	Dan Szymborski: 241 vs. 345

5:00	Ben Clemens: feels like he’s gonna get there way more than 50% of the time, then

5:01	Dan Szymborski: ZiPS thinks he has 131 left, on average

5:01	Dan Szymborski: though that doesn’t explicitly project as a SS, he’s certainly in no imminent danger of shifting off

5:03	Dan: hader pitching in this game feels like a bit of a mistake?

5:07	Ben Clemens: Yeah I don’t get it

5:07	Davy Andrews: Oh wow, it’s really happening.

5:03	Nick: Does Adley’s fade down the stretch portend a move to 1B or DH sooner rather than later in his career?

5:04	Jay Jaffe: Doubt it

5:04	Jay Jaffe: esp if this is just a hand injury

5:05	Burnesed: I really think the Adley problem is the wrist injury lingering. But also he has a very long swing, which may age poorly if uncorrected.

5:06	Davy Andrews: Statcast’s bat tracking leaderboard begs to differ.

5:08	Burnesed: 14th percentile bat speed?

5:10	Davy Andrews: Let’s not forget the hand injury. It’s dropped quite a bit. 69.4 mph before 6/27, 68.6 after.

5:09	Dan Szymborski: Cal Ripken is slowly morphing into Tom Colicchio

5:09	Guest: I was doing some back of envelope math and if Soto averages 35 HR for 15 years (until he’s 40), he still won’t pass Bonds…

5:10	Dan Szymborski: It’s a LOT of homers!

5:10	bringbackpologrounds: Can Jose Ramirez usurp Barry Bonds as the best player in the 400-400 club?

5:10	Jay Jaffe: pretty sure that Barry Bonds is going to be the best player in just about any club he’s in

5:10	Dan Szymborski: I like J-Ram, but let’s not go nuts

5:10	MOOOOOKIE: ….is Ripken losing like a foot of height in that Colicchio transformation?

5:10	Dan Szymborski: He’s in his mid-60s, as shocking as that is!

5:11	Davy Andrews: Oh no Melendez.

5:11	Dan Szymborski: Though probably not a foot

5:11	Jay Jaffe: Ripken isn’t going to be impressed with my ability to debone a chicken, that’s for sure.

5:11	bringbackpologrounds: But is 400-400 on the table?

5:11	Dan Szymborski: Despite recent spike, he’s still at an age where SBs really start collapsing

5:12	Guest: what’s the OAA on that melendez play ?

5:12	Davy Andrews: I mean, if it were possible to lose more than one out on a play, I’d say -35.

5:12	Burnesed: When they talk about the new LF in Baltimore being hard to play, they don’t mean that ball

5:13	MOOOOOKIE: that melendez play gets made like 80+ percent of the time I bet?

5:13	NG: Colicchio is the best chef-judge of cooking shows.

5:13	MattStats5: Way higher than 80…he misread the spin off the bat. Huge misplay.

5:13	MOOOOOKIE: melendez’ default seems to be “turned around” …. yikes

5:14	vivalajeter: Lindor seems to be underappreciated by a big chunk of Mets fans, who (until this year) thought Alonso was the better player. Do you think yesterday’s HR immediately gives him the props he deserves?

5:15	Davy Andrews: At this point, I think this is an extremely small minority. Narratives are hard to kill.

5:19	Jay Jaffe: That’s one of the biggest homers in franchise history. Not sure how that — and really, his whole stretch run with all of those clutch HRs — can’t help but level his standing.

5:14	Ben Clemens: My ‘potential difference maker’ for the Royals was keeping the ball away from Melendez

5:14	Ben Clemens: feeling good about that one

5:15	Burnesed: Ragans says Forget you, MJ. I’ll do it myself.

5:18	Guest: Are you looking forward to the “rest is bad” takes if the yankees/dodgers/phillies lose ?

5:19	Davy Andrews: I find it pretty easy to avoid the nonsense.

5:18	Ben Clemens: Like, extremely not

5:19	Davy Andrews: You just can’t hold Yordan down.

5:19	Ben Clemens: Last year, in one of the Rangers games against the Astros, I remember all these features about how the Rangers had cracked the code

5:20	Ben Clemens: you just throw him (I can’t remember what the pitch was) and hten he’s easy

5:20	Ben Clemens: and then he batted like .600 the rest of the series

5:20	MOOOOOKIE: Yordan just fought that one off…..to the wall

5:20	NG: Yordan with the most casual double ever

5:20	Ben Clemens: Yeah he’s hurt

5:20	Guest: Why did they pinch-run?

5:21	Jay Jaffe: yeah he missed time last week with a knee sprain

5:20	Ben Schneider: I think about Ben’s Kaboyashi Maru article every time I watch Yordan

5:20	Ben Clemens: Only one of two articles I’ve written about him being impossible

5:20	Ben Clemens: There’s also ‘Yordan Alvarez, Un-Game-Plan-Able”

5:21	Ben Clemens: it’s such a trope at this point

5:22	Bob: Good postseason pitching…or bad hitting. But good first round games so far.

5:22	IBS: Montgomery K’d Yordan like 3 times on the curveball but as reported Yordan had an upset tummy

5:22	Ben Clemens: Ah right, that one. Also like…. he’s struck out three times in a game before

5:22	Davy Andrews: Well, that’s the secret then.

5:22	Ben Clemens: that has happened. baseball contains multitudes

5:24	Grandal Richuk: food poisoning is a great post-season performer across all leagues and sports

5:24	Ben Clemens: only Michael Jordan has beaten it

5:24	Grandal Richuk: How did the Royals make the playoffs with a left fielder literally worse than the White Sox’ counterpart?

5:24	Ben Clemens: b/c of the White Sox’s Bobby Witt Jr. counterpart

5:24	Ben Clemens: or rather, b/c of the Royals’ Paul DeJong counterpart. Plus they got DeJong too!

5:27	Jay Jaffe: I just checked. DeJong got off to a hot start post-trade, and hit for a 148 wRC+ in August… and a -29 wRC+ in September (.135/.154/.135 in 60 PA!)

5:25	Ben Clemens: bad bunt spot, please stop

5:25	Davy Andrews: Wow. That’s nuts.

5:25	South Detroit: Thank you Pena

5:26	Guest: Royals scored but no one watching haha

5:26	Ben Clemens: too much drama in Houston!

5:26	CirqueDuSoulay: three straight hits against a flailing closer and you give up an out (gotta say, almost a perfect bunt though)

5:26	Ben Clemens: When you execute a tough thing as well as possible and make an out, that’s peak baseball

5:26	Shirtless George Brett: Bobby By God Philadelphia WOO! Witt Jr.

5:27	MOOOOOKIE: at least it was sorta close to a hit….? how often does that throw go awry? still terrible tactics

5:27	Ben Schneider: I watch a fair amount of NPB for work and I can’t stand how often teams bunt

5:27	Brown and Gold Star: Wow don’t love that bunt. Tragic really.

5:27	bringbackpologrounds: What is Espada doing?

5:27	Guest: Would anybody mind if Vinny P became a postseason darling ?

5:27	Davy Andrews: I mean, is there anybody who doesn’t love him?

5:27	Ben Clemens: Big shout out to the broadcast for sticking around for the pitching chnage

5:28	Brown and Gold Star: Houston Win% went down by 2.8% according to statcast… if that’s the best case scenario outside of an error I just don’t get it

5:28	5 Run Homer: Jake Rogers has such insane 70s face

5:28	Ben Clemens: First and second no outs is one of the best spots to bunt, I think that’s why old heads like it

5:28	Ben Clemens: it’s just….. being down 2 makes it a lot worse

5:28	Jay Jaffe: i put Houston’s win chance at 999% here. this feels so inevitable.

5:28	Ben Clemens: gotta play to win, playing for a tie is for suckers

5:29	Shirtless George Brett: For a guy who is really really fast Witt sure gets thrown out too much stealing.

5:29	MattStats5: Man, close CS at second. Whew.

5:29	Ben Clemens: I wanted to write about his elite base stealing instincts in my series preview

5:30	Ben Clemens: and uh…. the stats did not agree with my narrative

5:32	Shirtless George Brett: Witt has the top speed but seems to take too long to get there. On his 90′ splits he is actually is slower than Ohtani (not that he is slow, slow) over the first 55ish feet.

5:32	Davy Andrews: Doesn’t handedness affect this? Ohtani’s momentum is taking him toward first.

5:32	Ben Clemens: People really misunderstand speed. This is the case across sports. Acceleration is a massive component of what makes people “fast”

5:33	Ben Clemens: Boy, too bad the Astros have two outs instead of one here, huh?

5:33	Davy Andrews: Hard to read your tone here, Ben.

5:33	Jay Jaffe: lowers their odds of winning to 457%

5:35	bringbackpologrounds: Postseason experience will save the day

5:35	bringbackpologrounds: Time for a veteran AB from Heyward

5:35	Colton: Not sure if this has been said already, but burning Blanco and Hader in a game they didn’t have the lead seems like an odd choice for Espada

5:35	Davy Andrews: It has been said, but if they win here, then it will have been an act of prognosticatory genius.

5:35	Jay Jaffe: holy smokes

5:36	South Detroit: Sadly for Tigers fans, post season experience may be a thing afterall…

5:37	CirqueDuSoulay: approx 3,000mph exit velo

5:37	Burnesed: Good positioning on that one

5:37	Jay Jaffe: only 88.9 EV on that Heyward ball but it looked like it was 110

5:37	Dan Szymborski: Modeling the postseason, I get a very slight advantage for less playoff experience (probably the age variable)

5:37	Ben Clemens: “AJ Hinch was playing chess while everyone else is playing checkers”

5:37	Ben Clemens: please, explain where

5:38	Davy Andrews: Having the best pitcher in the league is pretty clever.

5:37	Bosoxforlife: That gentlemen is why playoff baseball has a very large portion of luck involved.

5:37	Ben Clemens: also, you wouldn’t do well. You’d move your pieces around and they’d just hop over and take them!

5:37	MOOOOOKIE: I’ve always theorized that shorter legged folks get more steps in per unit distance traveled and this must be an advantage for accelerating / getting up to top speed quickly

5:37	Dan Szymborski: Never worked for me!

5:37	Jay Jaffe: OK folks, hell of a start to the 2024 postseason! I’m going to move along here

5:38	Dan Szymborski: I’ve got a torso the length of my 6’4 dad and the leg length of my 5’2 mom

5:38	Dan Szymborski: 5’11 with a 29 inch inseam

5:38	Ben Clemens: me too. Time for a greasy sandwich, but hopefully the good kind of grease. Have a wonderful rest of the day, everyone. I’m recapping the Brewers/Mets game later if you’re dying to see more Ben Clemens content

5:38	Davy Andrews: Bye, Ben! Of course we are.

5:39	MOOOOOKIE: AJ hinch played chess by resisting the urge to bunt

5:39	Dan Szymborski: I’m not leaving! If Davy heads out too, it will be a bleak, Szymborski-filled chat

5:39	Shirtless George Brett: Long legged people dont look like they are running very fast but they cover so much ground with their strides.

5:39	Colton: I don’t know how anyone ever squared up Foley, he throws bowling balls

5:39	Lily: Cardiac cats pull it out again

5:39	Dan Szymborski: dangit, I got old bay in my eye

5:41	Dan Szymborski: whew dat dp

5:41	bringbackpologrounds: Salvy SB incoming

5:42	MattStats5: Orioles-Royals game has me in knots.

5:43	Davy Andrews: Better get a theragun.

5:43	Dakota: I wish there was a stat for pitches per plate appearance for pitchers because Freddy Peralta would definitely be up there.

5:43	Davy Andrews: Somebody must have it in a place that’s easy to access.

5:43	Guest: Ragans out for Sam Long? Only 80 pitches

5:43	Shirtless George Brett: The Royals BP is going to blow this.

5:44	Colton: That is insane to pull him

5:44	MattStats5: LET’S HOPE! Pulling Ragans? Good lord, Orioles bats….lets go!!!!

5:44	Dan Szymborski: among pitchers with 40 IP

5:44	Dan Szymborski: Peralta’s 14th of 402 in pitchers per TBF

5:45	Jeremy: OMG they’re pulling Ragans

5:45	Ben Schneider: Ragans is out! Who saw that coming?

5:45	MattStats5: Your ace at 80 pitches up 1-0 on the road….I mean, I’m thrilled.

5:45	Dan Szymborski: Among relievers, he’s only behind Snell

5:45

Dan Szymborski: Name f Erik Miller 4.475352 Hayden Birdsong 4.406349 Taylor Rogers 4.345382 Kirby Yates 4.337553 Andrew Nardi 4.314286 Joe Boyle 4.274336 Tayler Scott 4.269504 Trevor Richards 4.267148 Aroldis Chapman 4.264151 Scott Barlow 4.244813 Jacob Latz 4.244792 Blake Snell 4.244019 Edwin Uceta 4.238994 Freddy Peralta 4.234483 Edwin Díaz 4.231481 Orion Kerkering 4.229572 Alex Vesia 4.228137 Carlos Rodón 4.214674 Austin Adams 4.21466 Calvin Faucher 4.208511 Josh Hader 4.201439 Hunter Greene 4.194763 Victor Vodnik 4.19375 Tommy Kahnle 4.189944 Anthony Bender 4.188596 Ryan Fernandez 4.185965 Luis Gil 4.185243 Dylan Cease 4.183727 José Leclerc 4.180556

5:45

Dan Szymborski: Name f Jack Kochanowicz 3.229323 Tim Hill 3.38488 Jhony Brito 3.405405 Ty Blach 3.433333 Tyler Rogers 3.455172 John King 3.459677 Ryan Helsley 3.515038 Luis García 3.535433 Zach Pop 3.559809 T.J. McFarland 3.561702 Ross Stripling 3.566929 Joe Mantiply 3.576132 Zach Eflin 3.577485 Raisel Iglesias 3.583012 Declan Cronin 3.584967 Sean Hjelle 3.587537 Andrew Kittredge 3.58885 Cole Irvin 3.593496 Dylan Lee 3.595833 Kyle Muller 3.59901 Ryan Thompson 3.602941 Kyle Freeland 3.610204 Brendon Little 3.611399 Will Smith 3.61828 Roansy Contreras 3.620805 Jason Foley 3.624 Justin Slaten 3.625 Daniel Lynch IV 3.626437 Grant Holmes 3.631206 Bailey Falter 3.633277

5:46	Davy Andrews: I think it’s worth mentioning at this moment that the Brewers have one of the highest BABIPs in baseball.

5:46	Davy Andrews: Ah, here comes the answer.

5:46	MOOOOOKIE: ragans left calf cramps……ok

5:46	Jeremy: Ragans pulled with a calf cramp.

5:46	Cole Ragans: whyd they pull me

5:46	Burnesed: Sounds like Ragans needs that theragun more!

5:46	Burnesed: Left Calf Cramps

5:47	Dan Szymborski: You KNOW sam long’s middle name doesn’t start with H because there’s no way his nickname wouldn’t be shlong

5:47	Colton: It’d be one thing is they were bringing in 2015 Wade Davis, but SAM LONG?! (Although Long has been solid for them) but SAM LONG?!

5:47	Davy Andrews: ESPN bringing back the helmet cam is hilarious. You know what people want in the middle of the most important game of the year? To get seasick.

5:47	Dan Szymborski: broadcasters love new camera views that make watching the game worse

5:48	Davy Andrews: When I interviewed John DeMarsico, he had an interesting take on this. He’s especially fond of the view from behind home plate, so that you can get a sense of how the pitch moves from the batter’s perspective, but they only go to it so often.

5:47	Davy Andrews: And just like that, Long does the job.

5:48	Dan Szymborski: “And here we go to Bobby Witt’s elbow cam. You can see the way you’re looking at the people in teh scout seats behind the plate that he got a full followthrough on that double.”]

5:49	Colton: Unreal that that worked out, maybe they’re a team of destiny lol

5:49	Burnesed: Matt Quatraro playing scattegories while everyone else is playing monopoly

5:49	Shirtless George Brett: Please score more runs, Royals. I cant take watching this bullpen try to hold a 1 run lead.

5:50	Davy Andrews: Cannot express how huge it would be for the Brewers to put up a crooked number here, rather than being held to one.

5:50	Dan Szymborski: I see things are going wrong for Severino

5:50	Dan: The pants are still very see through!

5:50	MattStats5: You’ve seen our bullpen? Hoping Burnes can go 9.

5:51	Dakota: Not surprised Severino walked Adames. There’s not many things scarier to a pitcher than Adames at bat with two guys on base.

5:51	Dan Szymborski: Luckily Burnes has gotten a ton of quick outs so the O’s haven’t had to turn to pen

5:52	Davy Andrews: Wow wow wow.

5:52	Dan Szymborski: I wonder what the record for shutout losses under 100 pitches

5:53	Dan Szymborski: The Dark Maddux

5:53	Dan Szymborski: err

5:53	Dan Szymborski: complete game losses

5:53	Dan Szymborski: yeah

5:54	Dan Szymborski: that’s what I meant

5:54	Dan Szymborski: I realize you can’t lose a shutout

5:54	bringbackpologrounds: When is the last time a pitcher has pitched a CG loss in the postseason?

5:56	MOOOOOKIE: the royals may be enabling the O’s to use Burnes for all outs the way they’re not making him work too hard

5:56	MattStats5: Quick 5 pitch inning….he’s gotta come back for the 9th (although Akin has been decent, not great, lately).

5:56	Dan: Severino only giving up 2 feels like a best case scenario, even with the Mets offense being shaky lately

5:57	Talfred: Bob Gibson played in 3 WS and had 81 IP. Pretty maximal.

5:58	Dan Szymborski: Dammit, Maddux had five complete game losses under 100 pitches, so I guess it IS just the Dark Madux

5:58	Refugee: Didn’t have Baltimore with 20,000 .040 xBA flyouts, but here we are

5:58	Dan Szymborski: oh wait, newcombe has 7, radke 8

5:59	Dan Szymborski: I like Dark Maddux better

5:59	Colton: Since when did Kris Bubic become this good out of the ‘pen, my goodness his numbers are fantastic

5:59	MOOOOOKIE: is rivera rocking the world’s first mustache fade?

6:00	Dan Szymborski: Mets lucky it was only two runs

6:00	Shirtless George Brett: Bubic added a slider and was looking really good until he blew his elbow out. I suspect he will be in the rotation again next year

6:01	Davy Andrews: I don’t understand. Shirtless Bo Jackson was right there.

6:01	Davy Andrews: The name rhymes with Joe Jackson!

6:01	Dan Szymborski: goddamit, teams don’t play worse after sitting around

6:02	Shirtless George Brett: Its a inside joke between me and my brother. On off days George Brett floats around in the fountains eating ribs.

6:02	MattStats5: Westburg gonna own this AB!

6:03	Dan Szymborski:

6:03	Davy Andrews: Playoff hero Jesse Winker, just as we all drew it up.

6:03	Dakota: Jesse Winker revenge game.

6:04	That Guy: It’s welcoming how less stressful things are when you’re a fan of a bye team

6:05	5 Run Homer: Gunnar also has severe 70s face

6:05	Jeremy: Here comes Erceg to face Santanter with two runners on and one out.

6:05	Grandal Richuk: I like how the Royals use all of the traditional offense over defense positions (except DH) for their bad hitters. It is extremely Bobby Witt Jr and whoever else shows up.

6:05	MattStats5: Time for some TONY TATER!

6:08	Davy Andrews: I don’t know how many pitches the Brewers were expecting Peralta to throw in the first inning, but they definitely weren’t hoping for more than 30.

6:08	Colton: Erceg’s story should be talked about more than it is, to go from a power hitting 3b prospect to a reliever that’s as good as he is, is pretty impressive in such a short time

6:10	MattStats5: Why are Hosmer, Cain and Moustakas in my man cave right now? Go haunt Salvy.

6:10	MOOOOOKIE: maikel garcia probably wears a 27″ waist: what a skinny dude

6:11	Davy Andrews: He is indeed quite trim.

6:10	bringbackpologrounds: RIP Burnes CG

6:10	MattStats5: Burnes did his job, for sure. Dammit…we want the Yankees! LET’S GO BATS, ffs.

6:11	Davy Andrews: Will be a real bummer for whichever one of these starters has an incredible outing wasted.

6:12	Winker: I don’t know how much revenge I need to get taking $10M as a sub-replacement-level player

6:12	MOOOOOKIE: Massey has real “back of the infield dirt” power

6:12	CirqueDuSoulay: i’m guessing freddie freeman and miguel rojas are quite happy to be resting and not playing until saturday

6:12	Burnesed: No Black Radke for Burnes

6:13	MattStats5: Agree…what a pitching gem by both.

6:13	MattStats5: Tony Tarasco demands we face the Yankees in the ALDS!

6:13	Dakota: I wonder who the Brewers are going to use as long relief if Peralta’s pitch count keeps inflating. Because they have options

6:13	Burnesed: I would sign up for cologuard if it meant a tony tater. Alas.

6:14	Dan Szymborski: The cologuard was directed to me, i feel

6:14	Davy Andrews: I was not going to be the one who hit the publish button.

6:15	MOOOOOKIE: as a former band geek I read “cologuard” as “colorguard” and the joke still worked

6:16	Burnesed: My Way was written by a beloved French singer known as Cloclo. They made a biopic about him, during which he hears Frank Sinatra cover his song and runs around screaming with delight. I wonder what he’d make of it showing up with different lyrics in ads for colon cancer screenings…

6:16	Davy Andrews: Wow, Adley really threw a slider down to second base there. Lots of glove-side run.

6:16	Dan Szymborski: He’d probably think “royalties, ca-ching!”

6:16	Dan Szymborski: or whatever that is in french

6:16	MOOOOOKIE: creative spin move on the attempted tag!

6:16	Davy Andrews: Yeah, best he could do in that situation.

6:16	MattStats5: Bad challenge

6:17	Davy Andrews: I’m sure they were thinking that there was no reason not to at that point.

6:17	bringbackpologrounds: Adley washed at 26 🙁

6:17	Davy Andrews: Extremely harsh. Dude just showed you a 60-grade sweeper.

6:17	Dan Szymborski: chatgpt claims the french equivalent of ka-ching is cling-cling

6:18	MattStats5: Save that challenge for bottom 9. He was obviously safe.

6:19	Dakota: Hear me out: Chad GPT but it just gives you information on Chad Curtis.

6:20	Burnesed: How do the O’s still have a 23% win probability?

6:20	Burnesed: (or now 21% after the walk)

6:20	Davy Andrews: That does seem high. We’ve got 16.6%

6:20	Dan Szymborski: Oh, I see Chad Curtis got out of prison a few years ago

6:22	Davy Andrews: Oh Jesus, I didn’t know about any of this.

6:23	Dakota: I should’ve went with Chad Guadin. I did not know about Curtis’ post-playing life.

6:23	Dan Szymborski: He had one of the longest serving jail terms for players

6:24	5 Run Homer: I know there are bigger dudes in the big leagues but every time I see Salvy he looks like the biggest guy I’ve ever seen

6:24	Dan Szymborski: Curtis served 7

6:24	Dan Szymborski: Mondesi’s term was reduced to 6 years, 9 months

6:24	Guest: I just got here. Did I miss anything?

6:24	Dan Szymborski: If you remember Cubs/Marlins pitcher Sergio Mitre, he’s serving a 50-year sentence

6:25	Davy Andrews: Hello, Matt!

6:25	Dan Szymborski: forgot Willie Aikens 14 years

6:25	MOOOOOKIE: did Ugueth Urbina get put away for life?

6:25	Dan Szymborski: 14 years, out in 5.5

6:25	Matt Martell: Howdy Davy and everyone else!

6:26	Davy Andrews: You have arrived at a strange time.

6:26	Matt Martell: Just in time to watch this game go another nine innings

6:26	Dan Szymborski: It’s the Merovingian Matt Martell!

6:26	Dan Szymborski: (trying out some nicknames)

6:26	Matt Martell: Also, why are we talking about Ugueth Urbina?

6:27	Davy Andrews: Dan’s fault.

6:26	Dan Szymborski: The Maestro Matt Martell?

6:26	Matt Martell: Keep trying, Dan!

6:27	Dan Szymborski: Mayhem Matt Martell?

6:27	TKDC: Dan, does Zips playoff odds account for Jimenez and Iglesias limited availability and Lopez likely a little limited after pitching yesterday?

6:27	Dan Szymborski: The Magnanimous Matt Martell?

6:27	Dan Szymborski: TKDC, I did

6:28	Davy Andrews: Matt, has your baseball season ended?

6:29	Matt Martell: Yes, it has, but we had a pitchers and catchers workout Saturday night to try out some new pitchers. It was at a nice facility in Queens, but hilariously, we were throwing bullpens next to a dance party for an elementary schoolers birthday. We were very confused when we showed up

6:30	Davy Andrews: What’s the nice facility? I used to go hit at the Astoria Sports Complex (which was not nice, but had the best cages in the city), but it closed down.

6:32	Matt Martell: Artistic Stitch Sports Complex (no free ads!)

6:28	bringbackpologrounds: Rutsch redemption time

6:28	MattStats5: Adley, in all things Chuck Thompson…come on, man.

6:28	Dan Szymborski: Matt, we were checking something on ChatGPT and someone mentioned ChadGPT just gives you facts about Chad Curtis and then I looked up if he was still in jail for sex crimes and one thing led to another

6:28	Mike: I don’t know if I should be sad or not that Dan knows all these prison terms….

6:29	Dan Szymborski: I knew they were arrested, I didn’t remember off-hand what their terms were though!

6:29	Davy Andrews: Wow, that is a rough call.

6:29	Dan Szymborski: He only served three

6:29	Dan Szymborski: oof that strike three

6:30	Mike: automated strike zones please.

6:30	Matt Martell: Salvy is a strike-stealing legend!

6:30	Matt Martell: That’s his reputation, I am sure

6:30	MattStats5: That was low….but OHearn is on first for no reason.

6:31	Chris Baber: Challenge system

6:31	bringbackpologrounds: SALVY THE FRAMER

6:31	Talfred: Sam Crane of the infamous 1916 A’s did 15 years in the big house for a double murder.

6:31	Dan Szymborski: He never provided more details, but my grandfather said back in Russia, his uncle killed someone and “had to leave town for a while”

6:32	MattStats5: Who has Kjerstad with a walk off on their bingo card?

6:32	Dan Szymborski: Father Time, hopefully!

6:33	RTJ: Haven’t had a bingo card since 2020

6:33	Dan Szymborski: 2020 destroyed my concept of time

6:33	Matt Martell: I’m hoping for a game-tying knock and 9 extra innings!

6:34	Davy Andrews: Maybe in the next game.

6:34	Matt Martell: Is Dan’s disclosure about his uncle going to go unremarked upon?

6:35	Davy Andrews: That was definitely my plan.

6:35	Matt Martell: Sorry his grandfather’s uncle

6:35	MattStats5: So, Eflin vs Lugo and no sacrifice bunts. I’m taking up quilting.

6:35	MOOOOOKIE: Erceg is filthy

6:35	Guest: Erceg threw 48% changeups to close that one out

6:38	Matt Martell: I just checked to see if Erceg’s middle name began with a V, because that would’ve been amazing, and it’s even better than that: Stijepan

6:37	Burnesed: There’s no zealot like the convert

6:37	Burnesed: -ed position player-to-pitcher

6:37	Grandal Richuk: Dan’s “uncle” back in “”Russia””

6:37	Davy Andrews: Dan just let us know that his internet was knocked out. Presumably someone trying to silence him before he says too much.

6:37	That Guy: The last Baltimore playoff win is still in the 2014 ALDS clincher

6:38	Davy Andrews: I have to say, pretty good baseball so far tonight.

6:39	Davy Andrews: Just curious…

6:41	Davy Andrews: Hmm, so far a lot of people on this baseball website voting for No, just baseball. Probably just a coincidence.

6:40	Davy Andrews: Will you watch the VP debate tonight? Yes, just the VP debate. (12.2% \| 6 votes) No, just baseball. (63.2% \| 31 votes) I’ll flip back and forth. (10.2% \| 5 votes) I’ll watch them simultaneously. (14.2% \| 7 votes) Total Votes: 49

6:40	Grandal Richuk: 2024 is the year of the AL Central.

6:41	Matt Martell: I would love to watch J.D. Vance watch a baseball game

6:41	Davy Andrews: I…cannot say the same.

6:41	Ben MacDonald: Is really pretty good at this, now?

6:42	Davy Andrews: Right? He’s been great all year, in my opinion.

6:42	Davy Andrews: Frelick is really running out there.

6:43	Dan: Sevy really can’t get miss bats at all

6:44	Davy Andrews: Wow, yeah. Two whiffs on 30 swings.

6:44	Matt Martell: It’s such a bummer, considering how electric he once was. Glad he’s reinvented himself, but I loved watching 2017-18 Sevy

6:44	RTJ: do these win percentage graphics really add any value?

6:45	Davy Andrews: I don’t love them, but I also think they’re not too distracting, and when it comes to graphics, I’d say harm reduction is the first priority.

6:45	Kwah: 4 hours from now — “I haven’t seen Vance embarrass himself so bad running into Walz since that one time the Philadelphia relief pitcher showed up to a pre-game flyball shag session hungover.”

6:46	Davy Andrews: I do not remember the story you’re referring to, Kwah, but I trust you.

6:46	Kwah: I guess Vance Worley was primarily a starter in 2011-12, so the joke is faulty. Apologies.

6:46	Gosh: Why mention politics? Here for the baseball…

6:48	Davy Andrews: Two reasons. 1) I was genuinely curious about how many chatters would watch. 2) I wanted to remind anybody who was planning on watching the debate, before the joy of playoff baseball distracted them. It’s important.

6:49	Davy Andrews: Tie ballgame!

6:50	RTJ: someone needs to do a study on why the tv delays are different across region or network

6:50	Davy Andrews: Sorry if I spoiled anything. I’m in a weird situation where I think I’m ahead on one screen and way behind on another.

6:50	bringbackpologrounds: Chourio!

6:50	Matt Martell: Man, this is where yesterday’s doubleheader is going come into play. Severino probably would be out of the game right now if their bullpen wasn’t taxed.

6:54	Kwah: If more people juxtaposed their live news/politics tv viewing with some live baseball on tv, the world would be a better place. That’s the whole point of owning multiple tv-devices.

6:55	HappyFunBall: I will vote for whichever VP candidate can get a hit off of Edwin Diaz

6:55	Ben Schneider: I won’t complain about starters pitching deeper in the playoffs

6:55	Dakota: Garrett Mitchell being a type 1 diabetic made me look up other MLB players from past or present that were type 1 diabetic. The list includes the likes of Catfish Hunter, Ron Santo, Adam Duvall, Dave Hollins, Sam Fuld, and Brandon Morrow.

6:56	Davy Andrews: Don’t forget Mason Miller! I have a few loved ones with T1D, so I am always rooting for those players.

6:56	MOOOOOKIE: jim eisenreich was a diabetic too iirc

6:56	RTJ: the worst part of 2024 MLB playoffs are the non-stop political commercials

6:57	Kwah: As a Yankees fan who remembers 2017, I am in awe of and enraged at the sight of Luis Severino pitching multiple postseason innings, even multiple fractions of an inning.

7:00	Matt Martell: I interned on the 2017 Yankees beat. Was my first time in a major league clubhouse. I will always remember that team, and man, Sevy was incredible

6:58	Davy Andrews: Wow, the duality of Jackson Chourio.

6:58	Burnesed: The worst part of the 2024 MLB playoffs is my team losing

6:58	MOOOOOKIE: when do the mets pull sevy?

6:59	Dan: Have to think they only pull Sevy now if they think Butto can give them 2-3 innings with the way their bullpen is right now

7:01	Davy Andrews: You may be right, but Butto hasn’t gone more than 1 1/3 in a month and a half.

7:01	That Guy: Not often you see the same guy have a web gem and a misplayed ball in back to back plays.

7:02	Matt Martell: That was such a fun play. Hoskins snag, Payamps’ foot misses the base, run scores. Fun baseball!

7:02	Davy Andrews: Yet another crazy play back to back.

7:02	Davy Andrews: Looks like Payamps got his cleat caught when he tried to drag it.

7:02	Dan: Jose Iglesias is living a charmed life

7:02	Davy Andrews: Even the dirt is on his side.

7:03	Guest: The team that scored the most runs in the majors and the team with the lowest starting staff ERA both missed the playoffs. Baseball!

7:04	Talfred: Park effects matter

7:05	Davy Andrews: The baseball gods, they are angry.

7:05	Davy Andrews: Or hungry. It’s sometimes hard to tell.

7:06	RTJ: what are some good chicken taco spices that would mix it up on Taco Tuesday?

7:08	Davy Andrews: Are you able to get tajin seasoning? It’s just chili and lime, but it adds something a little different to the normal garlic, cumin, chili combo. Also, nutritional yeast can bring some cheesiness.

7:08	Smiling Politely: try a sweet flavor instead of savory (chinese five spice is a fun base)

7:09	Dakota: I’m not having a good time here in Wisconsin

7:10	Matt Martell: It’s still early and the Mets’ bullpen is gassed. Hang in there, Dakota!

7:09	MOOOOOKIE: alonso’s grimace purple cleats and belt are pure class

7:09	Davy Andrews: All the way. They are killer.

7:09	That Guy: Does this inning fall under poor batted ball luck or bad defense?

7:10	Davy Andrews: Gotta say both, right? A couple plays that could have been made. A few balls that were helped by a fortunate spray angle.

7:10	A Jolly Good Oberkfellow: Can Martinez be more than veteran presence?

7:12	Matt Martell: He sure can be! Also, I’m a big fan of the name A Jolly Good Oberkfellow

7:10	Matt Martell: Why does J.D. Martinez have his full name on his jersey?

7:11	Andrew: These Mets are relentless

7:11	Guest: Ashby not getting results but those breaking balls are ridiculous

7:11	Ben Schneider: Does spray angle really equate to “luck”? That sounds more like skill to me, especially when the ball is hit hard

7:12	Davy Andrews: I’m not saying there’s no skill involved.

7:12	Smiling Politely: There are many Martinezes

7:12	Guest: Does spray angle really equate to “luck”? — the greatest thread in the history of forums, locked by a moderator after 12,239 pages of heated debate,

7:12	Kwah: Mets about to outscore the Jets from 2 days ago.

7:12	Dan: Mark Vientos making the adjustment and catching up to fastballs this year has been super impressive

7:13	Davy Andrews: Yeah, his transformation has been absolutely huge.

7:14	Thornton: Brewers’ fans being forced to listen to an all-Cubs broadcast crew two years in a row is just cruel

7:14	Dakota: If you were just watching this game, you wouldn’t believe that the Brewers had a really good bullpen and defense this year.

7:14	Matt Martell: Unrelated, but how much did USAA have to pay Sam Elliott to say the phrase “Gronkier” in that commercial?

7:14	Davy Andrews: I would pay good money to see him practicing that with an enunciation coach.

7:16	Davy Andrews: To be clear, I would pay good money to hear Sam Ellliott say a lot of things.

7:17	Davy Andrews: Maybe the next time we update the FanGraphs glossary, we could get him to say all of the baseball terms so that people know how to pronounce them. Can you not hear him saying xwOBACon? This is a great idea and we should do it.

7:20	Matt Martell: I hope Meg is reading this so we can make it happen

7:15	Davy Andrews: So…the Brewers have some work to do.

7:17	HappyFunBall: I feel like there are awful lot of innings left for a gassed Mets bullpen to cause problems…

7:17	Dan: I wonder if the Mets try their luck and roll Sevy out for another inning

7:18	Davy Andrews: And he’s still out there. Lot of baseball left to play, but four runs is a lot to overcome.

7:19	Matt Martell: They might be better off running Sevy out for as long as he can than using the bullpen with a 4-run lead

7:20	Davy Andrews: Someone somewhere must be doing some runs-to-innings actuarial calculations right now.

7:20	Dakota: I’m a Brewers fan and its the playoffs. The only thing that is to be expected is misery.

7:21	Davy Andrews: Two broken-bat popups in one inning. He may well keep rolling.

7:21	MOOOOOKIE: friends don’t let friends start Jake Bauers in the playoffs

7:22	Ben Schneider: When the Brewers traded for Bauers I didn’t think he’d last the first half, let alone make a postseason roster

7:23	Guest: Oh man, I missed this. Is there a schedule of chats or something?

7:23	Davy Andrews: I missed it too. That seems like a Matt question…

7:27	Matt Martell: Ummm, like most things: Let me ask Meg

7:34	Matt Martell: Update: We are still sorting out when we’re chatting during the playoffs, but we’ll be sure to announce them sooner

7:23	Carlos Mendoza: Am I a genius?

7:23	Davy Andrews: Having your starter pitch well makes you look awfully smart.

7:23	Davy Andrews: Oh hey, they’re talking about our website.

7:24	Matt Martell: Rick Dalton pointing meme!

7:24	Ben Schneider: Always here for a Sarah Langs shoutout

7:25	Frank: Do you think Sterling knows who FanGraph is yet?

7:25	Davy Andrews: Honestly, I’ve been working here for two years, and they still haven’t told me who it is.

7:27	Matt Martell: Last season, Sterling said he would get me a list of his film noir recommendations. Haven’t seen him since, unfortunately. But if I get the list, I’ll ask him

7:28	Davy Andrews: What are your film noir recommendations?

7:33	Matt Martell: Off the top of my head, in no particular order: In a Lonely Place Out of the Past The Third Man They Live by Night Gun Crazy

7:25	Dakota: A half hour ago, I had a Brewers lead and a muffin. Now I no longer have a Brewers lead or muffin.

7:25	Dan: Every time I hear FanGraphs on a broadcast, it’s like I see the bat signal and I have to look up

7:25	MOOOOOKIE: I’m not sure that John Sterling actually knowing who “Fangraph” is would be to anyone’s benefit

7:28	Davy Andrews: It’s sausage race time, in case anyone was wondering.

7:29	Phil: I am listening to Brewers radio and they all really not stopping talking about Payamps. It feels like a bad emotional cycle to me.

7:29	Kwah: If ESPN is shouting out Fangraphs on the mothership in primetime, then Fangraphs should be getting a slice of that Mickey Mouse Marvel moolah.

7:29	Davy Andrews: I mean, we don’t pay them every time we mention a Jeff Passan scoop.

7:30	MOOOOOKIE: is the sausage race sponsored? if so how much would they have had to pay the broadcast to stick with it between innings?

7:31	Sonny: Sterling knows what Fangraphs is and he’s a huge fan of Banknotes Harper

7:32	Davy Andrews: Wow. What an incredible reference.

7:34	MOOOOOKIE: here’s severino in the 6th and I wrote him off after the 4th….why has he lost his electricity? The velo is still there at 97 no?

7:34	Davy Andrews: He’s still got it.

7:34	Davy Andrews:

7:34	Davy Andrews: Man, talk about putting a team on your back.

7:34	Sonny: Try not to hear “Arbitrage!” in John Sterling’s voice. I dare you

7:34	MOOOOOKIE: #bringbacknotgraphs

7:35	John: baller performance from sevy, though looks a lot different if it is 4-0 brewers

7:35	Davy Andrews: Absolutely.

7:35	Grandal Richuk: Fangraphs writers should have bio pages. Past and Present. I need a page for August Fagerstrom and Dayn Perry with their stats

7:35	Dakota: I’d like to think that John Sterling imagines that “FanGraph” is like Batman but rather sitting in a cave monitoring every citizen in Gotham, this mysterious figure spends his days looking at a big wall of spreadsheets

7:36	Wireless Joe Jackson: Dan – I’m disconsolate regarding my Twins’ September “performance”. I would appreciate a really savage Twins eulogy to bring me a measure of comfort, and I think you’re the Dan to write it.

7:36	Davy Andrews: Dan’s internet has died, sorry. Maybe you could try Dan Hayes?

7:37	Wireless Joe Jackson: Any Dan, really? As long as its savage.

7:37	MOOOOOKIE: Fagerstrom’s peak WAR/article was off the charts

7:38	Davy Andrews: One of the many writers who made me fall in love with this site. August was incredible.

7:38	McGraw45: Padres fans watching all of the underdogs winning today…

7:38	MOOOOOKIE: They just called Civale “burly”….. giggles

7:38	Phil: I just googled Fagerstrom.l, since he was mentioned. What is “player information”? Because it’s August, I assume that’s an analytics position, but it sure sounds like PR.

7:42	Davy Andrews: I feel confident that he’s doing cool stuff. Also, when we announced the paywall, August bought a bunch of memberships and gave them out to readers for free.

7:42	Grandal Richuk: Who do you think currently holds the Mariners in higher regard: Dave Cameron, current Mariners employee, or Jeff Sullivan, current Rays employee?

7:44	Davy Andrews: That is an excellent question. Having never interacted with either of them, I suspect it’s Jeff, just because wherever you work, even if it’s somewhere great, you’re all too aware of the ways that it could be better.

7:44	Grandal Richuk: Also, Cistulli has the best wikipedia page, just for the intro paragraph.

7:44	Grandal Richuk: Somehow during the playoff games, I’ve gone into “remember some guys” mode about former FanGraphs employees

7:45	Davy Andrews: It’s a special place. My life would look very different without it.

7:45	Phil: Dave is also grumpier. I say that with admiration, but it’s just a fact.

7:46	Davy Andrews: Yeah, Jeff was enthusiastic. I remember the first article I wrote here, I put a sentence in there that was just like, “And that’s great!” just because it felt like something he would do.

7:45	MOOOOOKIE: Ben Clemens is suspiciously good: I have a conspiracy theory that he’s just a pseudonym for Jeff and Dave and countless other former luminaries….but I also thought the same thing about August

7:48	Matt Martell: Don’t say anything else about this unless you want your internet to abruptly crash like Dan’s did after mentioning his grandpa’s uncle in Russia!

7:46	MOOOOOKIE: while we’re remembering some FG guys: Tony Blengino

7:47	Grandal Richuk: If I didn’t start reading Ben from Viva El Birdos, I might also be suspicious

7:47	Davy Andrews: What an amazing I preferred their earlier stuff.

7:50	Matt Martell: Viva El Birdos is Ben’s Uncle Tupelo

7:47	Sonny: Remember when Cistulli took Mike Trout like 3rd overall in a 10 year draft article back in 2011 or so when Trout was a 20y with an underwhelming first 100 abs and someone in the comments wrote ‘that’s why you don’t hire poets to write about baseball?’

7:49	Klubot3000: God I love Cistulli. I still go back and listen to old FG audio with Cistulli and Dayne. Hysterical stuff

7:49	A Jolly Good Oberkfellow: Buttó no doubt in for the three inning save.

7:49	Davy Andrews: Oh right, there’s baseball game!

7:49	WHAT TIME IS IT: TIME FOR THE BUTT(Ó)

7:52	RTJ: will the chat be going through the night game?

7:52	Davy Andrews: No, we’re just here through the Mets-Brewers. You’re on your own out in San Deigo, sorry.

7:52	Sonny: is there a way to make your Apple Watch play Narco whenever Diaz comes into a ballgame? I’d buy an Apple Watch

7:52	Davy Andrews: If somebody figures this out please tell me how to do it.

7:52	Guest: Any longtime Mets fan is seeing the 94% win probability as a taunt…

7:52	Dakota: I spent a good amount of years writing about basketball and now work in basketball scouting but I’ve always been jealous by the big brains that all of you Fangraphs people have. Y’all are second to none

7:53	Davy Andrews: I feel that jealousy every day.

7:53	Guest: Butto can look effortlessly in control of an inning at times.

7:53	Davy Andrews: The energy of this game has really, really shifted.

7:54	RTJ: what time does the fangraphs VP Debate chat launch?

7:58	Davy Andrews: One of my fondest memories from college was that we had two TVs in our dorm junior year, so all our friends came over to watch the Cardinals in the NLDS and the presidential debate at the same time.

8:03	Matt Martell: One of my fondest memories in college was drinking a beer per inning with my roommate at Champs Downtown in State College (if any other Penn Staters are in this chat) during Game 7 of the 2017 World Series. I did not make it to class the next day

7:58	A Jolly Good Oberkfellow: As a Mets fan, here’s hoping Pat Murphy channels Espada and pitches Devin Williams just for kicks.

7:58	Kwah: Brewers versus Metropolitans sounds like a case brought before a federal District Court in the middle of Prohibition Era.

8:01	Matt Martell: This is good ^

8:04	Phil: Is this first playoff pitch timer violation this year? I didn’t watch the earlier games.

8:04	Davy Andrews: Definitely the first one I saw.

8:04	Guest: Butto got that funky cut/ride low slot four seam

8:04	Ben Schneider: Isn’t “federal district court” an oxymoron?

8:05	Dakota: What do you folks do when a baseball game sucks every happy thought out of your mind like a vacuum cleaner?

8:06	Matt Martell: I watch After Hours to remind myself just how much worse things could get. Really put things in perspective and also makes me laugh

8:07	Davy Andrews: I think I mostly just feel sad. I really feel it.

8:08	Davy Andrews: I. Rest. My. Case.

8:08	Dan: Have to roll with Butto, right?

8:08	Davy Andrews: I think I would.

8:08	Wireless Joe Jackson: Dakota has just described the last two months of Twins baseball! Short answer, turn it off and go fishing.

8:08	Davy Andrews: After my weird odyssey with the Twins this year, I was really, really rooting for them, and I was gutted when they got eliminated.

8:14	Davy Andrews: And I felt such a profound sadness after watching the last game at the Coliseum. I didn’t expect it at all. I’ve only been there once, and I barely remember it. But there it was.

8:08	Phil: As a Red Sox fan who has had that feeling for two months, Dakota. . . I don’t know. Eventually it ends?

8:13	Dakota: Baseball is crushing because you can experience six months of a really good season where your team wins 90+ games only for that all to go away in 48 hours.

8:15	Davy Andrews: I feel like we’ve really covered a lot of ground over the past six hours: baseball stuff, taco recipes, Dan’s criminal ancestry, FanGraphs writers, crushing misery.

8:16	Davy Andrews: Really good work, everyone.

8:17	Ben Schneider: That pop fly is why communication is key on the field

8:17	Davy Andrews: It’s also really hard to pull off in a packed stadium, especially on the road.

8:17	MOOOOOKIE: I’ve been hanging out in this chat all day: thanks for a fun time all!

8:18	Davy Andrews: And that’s the ballgame! Thank you all for being here. I look forward to this chat all year.

8:18	Matt Martell: This was my first playoffs chat here. Thanks for the fun, and see you all next time!

8:19	Davy Andrews: Ugh, hate that they called him Frankie in the interview. That’s not how he prefers to be addressed. It’s really simple.

8:19	Davy Andrews: Sorry, pet peeve of mine!

8:20	Davy Andrews: Have a great night, everybody! Enjoy the playoffs!

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