FanGraphs Power Rankings: June 24–30

We’ve reached the halfway point of the season and the playoff races are starting to take a more defined shape. While the group of teams vying for the NL Wild Card looks pretty big on paper, our playoff odds show that the postseason field is actually more clearly delineated than the standings might lead you to believe.

This season, we’ve revamped our power rankings. The old model wasn’t very reactive to the ups and downs of any given team’s performance throughout the season, and by September, it was giving far too much weight to a team’s full body of work without taking into account how the club had changed, improved, or declined since March. That’s why we’ve decided to build our power rankings model using a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports section, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant solution that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance.

To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coinflip playoff odds (specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%). As the best and worst teams sort themselves out throughout the season, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise will remain reactive to hot streaks or cold snaps.

First up are the full rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers with comments on a handful of clubs. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — I’ve taken some editorial liberties when grouping teams together — but generally, the ordering is consistent. One thing to note: The playoff odds listed in the tables below are our standard Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds that are used in the ranking formula.

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After getting swept by the Astros a few weekends ago and then losing a series to the Guardians, the Orioles dismantled the Rangers this past weekend and took over the top spot in the AL East. Their offense blasted 60 home runs in the month of June, powering them through one of the toughest stretches on their schedule this year. Meanwhile, up in New York, the Yankees haven’t won a series since taking three of four from the Royals three weeks ago. They were swept in two games in a wild subway series against the Mets and then split a four-game series against the Blue Jays last week.

The Phillies should be thankful they banked so many wins early this season because they’re about to face a bit of adversity over the next few weeks. Both Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber were placed on the IL last week with minor injuries that could keep them out of action until the All-Star break. Complicating matters further, both Taijuan Walker and Spencer Turnbull were also sidelined with injuries, thinning the depth in the Phillies’ rotation, which has been their greatest strength. They’re eight games up on the Braves as we enter the fourth month of the season, which gives them plenty of cushion until they can get their entire roster healthy again.

The Guardians extended their winning streak to seven games with their series win over the Orioles last week but stumbled in a big four-game set against the Royals over the weekend. That cut their lead in the AL Central to six games. They’re getting Gavin Williams back from his elbow injury this week, which should help their beleaguered starting rotation.

The Dodgers have barely missed Mookie Betts thanks to an absolutely scorching month from Shohei Ohtani. He blasted three more home runs last week to bring his June total to 12.

The Brewers had a pretty nice week, sweeping the Rangers and winning two of three against the Cubs. It’s weird to see them among the best offenses in the league, especially since scoring runs was their biggest weakness over the last few years, but they’re getting solid contributions up and down their lineup. More importantly, Jackson Chourio, the youngest player in the majors, seems to have figured things out after a slow start to his big league career; he posted a 148 wRC+ in June with a pair of home runs last week.

This tier grew a lot larger this week, as a bunch of teams have solidified their place in the playoff races. There’s now a pretty distinct gap between this tier and the melee just below.

The Braves had a weird week. A rainout on Tuesday forced them into a double-header on Wednesday in St. Louis. Then they had to travel to Chicago for a rainout makeup game against the White Sox, which they lost 1-0. They finally returned home on Friday and won a hard fought series against the Pirates. With the Phillies diminished from their injuries, Atlanta will host them this weekend looking to get back into the NL East race.

Despite finishing June with a solid 15-12 record, the vibes surrounding the Mariners are decidedly not good. They limped home after a 3-7 road trip last week and ended up losing their first home series since mid-April over the weekend. Want a rubric to determine how an M’s game will go? They’re 36-6 when scoring four or more runs this year, but they’re averaging just 3.86 runs per game overall. They desperately need to add a bat to support one of the best pitching staffs in the league.

Don’t look now, but the Astros have pushed their record over .500 for the first time this season. They beat up on the Rockies and Mets last week to secure the best record in baseball in the month of June and bring themselves within 3.5 games of the AL West lead. And they’ve done all this without Kyle Tucker in the lineup (he’s been sidelined since June 3) and while navigating plenty of injuries to their pitching staff.

The Padres are playing fantastic baseball right now, winning nine of their last 11 games. Manny Machado has broken out of his early season slump and Jackson Merrill has crested the same hurdle that was holding Chourio back; the rookie center fielder blasted nine home runs in June on his way to a 174 wRC+.

The Rays have finally crawled their way back to .500, but they’ve got a pretty tough schedule over the next few weeks, with the Royals, Rangers, Yankees, and Guardians lined up to take them into the All-Star break and then another big four-game set against New York to open up the second half of the season. Based on the rest of the AL playoff picture, this stretch will likely determine whether Tampa Bay is a true contender or if they should start thinking about next year ahead of the trade deadline.

With the Padres and Cardinals pulling away in the Wild Card race, the NL teams in this tier are in danger of being left in the dust. For the Pirates, Diamondbacks, and Reds, last week wasn’t a momentum building one — Pittsburgh and Arizona won half of their games, while Cincinnati took three of seven. On the other hand, the Giants had a great week, gaining some ground in the standings by winning three of four against the Cubs and then taking a huge series against the Dodgers over the weekend.

The Angels ripped off six straight wins last week — albeit against the A’s and the Tigers. No one is going to mistake them for a true contender, but they did post a winning record in June. What’s more, Mike Trout’s knee is reportedly pain free and he should be returning soon. They’re not going to be a Cinderella story this year, but they’re definitely going to make things tough for all of the other teams in the AL as they play spoiler this summer.

The Rangers snapped a six-game losing streak on Sunday night with an emphatic win against the Orioles. Wyatt Langford hit for the cycle in that victory, which is a great sign for the Rangers offense; their biggest success story so far has been Josh Smith’s quiet breakout — not great for a team that led the AL in runs scored last year. Even if Langford heats up as the summer gets started, it might be too little, too late for Texas. The Rangers are almost closer to the A’s in the standings than they are to the AL West division lead.

The Nationals’ surprising flirtation with a Wild Card spot has given them a reason to call up their top prospect, James Wood. If he hits the ground running, he could help make things really interesting down the stretch. If anything, he’ll give fans in Washington a glimpse of what the next great Nats squad could look like. The real driver of Washington’s success has been a surprisingly strong starting rotation, led by Jake Irvin’s unlikely breakout.

Remember when the A’s reached .500 back in early May and then wound up losing 19 of their next 25 games to finish out the month? Somehow, their June was worse; they finished last month with a 7-20 record. Amazingly enough, the Rockies matched that record exactly. Since both of these ball clubs won just once last week, they’re joining the White Sox in the basement tier.