FanGraphs Power Rankings: Offseason 2025

The hot stove is currently set to simmer, as teams have completed their annual roster housekeeping, but any big moves are still on the horizon. That means it’s the perfect time to see how all 30 teams stack up. The rankings below present each team as they are currently constructed, based on our playing time estimates. This should give us a pretty good idea of which teams would be ready to compete if the season started today, and which ones still have work to do to get their 2025 roster in order.

This year, we revamped our power rankings using a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports section, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant solution that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. For these offseason rankings, I’ve pulled the Depth Charts projections and calculated an implied Elo ranking for each team. Our projections are entirely powered by the 2025 Steamer projections right now; the 2025 ZiPS projections will be added later on in the offseason. The delta column in the full rankings below shows the change in ranking from the final regular season run of the power rankings.

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The Braves endured injuries to their best hitter and best pitcher early in 2024 and had all sorts of other things go wrong during the season, yet they still managed to sneak into the playoffs. They enter the offseason with the best projection in baseball thanks to a roster that’s still one of the most talented in the majors, even though neither Ronald Acuña Jr. nor Spencer Strider are expected to be ready for Opening Day. With both Max Fried and Charlie Morton departing in free agency, Atlanta needs some pitching reinforcements, but the rest of the foundation is solid.

Right behind Atlanta in the projections are the defending World Series champions. That comes as no surprise, since Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto are still around, and Shohei Ohtani should be able to take up that two-way player business once again. The Dodgers have plenty of resources to fill in whatever holes there are on their roster while staying in play for the biggest names on the market this offseason (Juan Soto? Roki Sasaki? Why not both?!). With the midseason addition of Tommy Edman and Betts’ planned move back to the infield, the team can get creative with how it fills out the rest of the team. They don’t seem content with just two championships over the last four years — they’re in dynasty building mode.

The Phillies have plenty of talent on their roster, but their veteran core is quickly aging. Of the eight players on the team to post 3 WAR or more in 2024, only three of them will be younger than 32 next year and one of those three will turn 30 in the middle of next season. The Phils’ window of contention isn’t closing yet, but they’re probably looking at a transition period in a couple of years. In the short-term, they’ll enter next year as one of the better teams in the National League. They’ve got to rebuild their bullpen and possibly figure out what to do in the outfield, but they aren’t really that far off from the Braves and Dodgers above them.

Like the Phillies, the Astros’ roster looks older than you’d like, but they’re still talented enough to project to be the best team in the American League. They’ve got their work cut out for them this offseason, however. Alex Bregman’s departure is the most notable, but they’ve also got to figure out the other corner infield spot and could probably use some help in the outfield too. Their farm system is pretty depleted and their payroll seems like it’s close to maxed out, especially if they’re serious about re-signing Bregman; the former is a problem for the Astros’ future, while the latter could present some risk to fully filling out their roster.

The last two seasons have provided a tantalizing taste of the young talent the Orioles have gathered, while the last two postseasons have been a disappointing reality check for the ballclub. There’s no question this team is among the best in the AL, but it’s clear they need at least another contributor or two to really take the next step forward. They’ll also need to navigate the departures of Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander — two big holes that need to be filled — while scouring the market for that additional difference-maker to get them over the hump.

The success of the Yankees’ offseason will likely hinge on their ability to re-sign Soto, but that’s not the only thing on their to-do list. They’ve got pretty significant holes at first base and second or third (depending on where Jazz Chisholm Jr. ends up playing), and they need to rebuild a bullpen that saw a mass exodus via free agency earlier this month. Even if they end up with Soto anchoring their lineup for the next decade, ignoring all those other holes on the roster could prove costly for the Yankees.

The Diamondbacks missed the playoffs this season (albeit just barely), but the core of the team that made a surprise run to the World Series two years ago is still intact. The Snakes surprisingly led the majors in runs scored, thanks in large part to scorching hot second halves from Corbin Carroll and Eugenio Suárez, and an MVP-caliber season from Ketel Marte. Arizona desperately needs Eduardo Rodriguez and Jordan Montgomery to justify the big free agent contracts they signed last offseason since the team needs to go shopping for a new first baseman to replace some of that offensive production (assuming Christian Walker doesn’t return).

While the Twins ended the 2024 season in heartbreaking fashion, watching three other AL Central teams thrive in the playoffs, there’s reason to be optimistic about next year. There’s plenty of talent on the roster, with nearly every key contributor from this year carrying over to 2025. The key, as always, will be the health of guys like Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, Royce Lewis, and Joe Ryan. There’s also some big picture questions looming over the franchise; the Pohlad family announced its intent to sell the team and there have been some significant departures in the front office already this offseason.

The Mariners’ annual quest to find a hitter who can conquer T-Mobile Park continues this offseason. The midseason additions of Randy Arozarena and Victor Robles give them two strong corner outfielders on either side of Julio Rodríguez in center, but the infield is their clearest area of need. Of course, the M’s still have one of the best starting rotations in baseball, giving them a solid foundation to build from. The only question is how much they’re willing to spend to bolster their offense (hint — it won’t be much) and how aggressive they’ll be to capitalize on this window of contention.

Unlike last winter, the Rangers won’t head into next season wondering when their pitching staff will be fully healthy. Jacob deGrom returned to the mound at the end of last season, and Jon Gray and Tyler Mahle should be recovered from their respective maladies in time for spring training. Instead, the team will need to completely rebuild its bullpen after the departures of Kirby Yates, David Robertson, José Leclerc and Andrew Chafin, and will probably need some more starting pitching depth to boot.

The Royals already did all the heavy lifting to solidify their rotation, re-signing Michael Wacha to a three-year deal a few weeks ago. Now they can turn their attention to figuring out how to build a lineup around Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, and Salvador Perez. None of their internal options are all that inspiring, so they’ll need to look outside the organization for upgrades. They already showed a surprising willingness to spend to improve their rotation. Now it’s time to address the other side of the roster.

The past few years, A.J. Preller has acted aggressively to raise the ceiling of an extremely top-heavy roster. There are holes in left field and in the starting rotation, but a lot of the work San Diego will need to do involves building up some organizational depth so the roster isn’t left with a black hole should any of its stars end up injured next year. That won’t be as flashy as trading for Soto or Dylan Cease, but it’s necessary work to ensure that the ups and downs of the regular season aren’t as dramatic.

When Cody Bellinger opted into his contract for 2025, the Cubs had one of their big offseason questions answered. His return means the lineup is pretty locked in for next year, even if it was fairly average in 2024 (12th by runs scored, 14th by wRC+). Instead of addressing the offense, Chicago will need to improve their bullpen and possibly find some starting pitching depth. With the NL Central wide open for the taking, a few key additions could push the Cubs’ window of contention wide open.

The Brewers ended up running away with the NL Central this year, but the projections see a wide open division in 2025. Jackson Chourio established himself as a star during the second half of 2024, and Christian Yelich and Brandon Woodruff should be healthy to start the year in 2025. Still, the loss of Willy Adames is a pretty big deal without any easy answers, and the back end of Milwaukee’s starting rotation needs a lot of help.

And then there are the Cardinals. The projections see enough talent on their roster to project them alongside the Cubs and Brewers, but the team might be embarking on a short-term reset rather than restocking for another run at the division title in 2025. While that’s probably a good long-term strategy, it means this projection might end up being their high water mark this offseason as they begin to shed the high-priced veterans on their roster.

This year was a weird bridge season for the Rays, as they moved from one core to the next after trading away Arozarena and Isaac Paredes at the trade deadline. They’re hoping that the next generation of youngsters, led by Junior Caminero, is ready to contribute at the major league level next year. They won’t have to worry about their pitching, since Shane McClanahan should return from his Tommy John surgery early next year and Jeffrey Springs and Shane Baz will be another year removed from their respective injuries. Of course, the big question is where they’re going to play in 2025 and beyond after Tropicana Field took a beating during Hurricane Milton.

The Blue Jays resisted trading away Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette at the trade deadline. Now comes the hard part, as they try to rework the rest of the roster to ensure they’re not wasting the final years of team control of those two young superstars. It’ll be a tall task, because while the team might be talented enough to play its way into contention, the starting rotation isn’t the strength it once was, there’s absolutely no one in the bullpen, and the lineup isn’t really all that settled outside Guerrero, Bichette, and a handful of others. If things go poorly early next season, Toronto could be tearing everything down a year too late.

The Tigers could be one of the most interesting teams to watch this winter. Their surprise playoff run came well ahead of schedule, but it proved there’s a legitimate core to build around in Tarik Skubal, Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, and Parker Meadows. Still, they can’t continue to rely on Skubal as their only true starting pitcher, and their offense was pretty inconsistent outside of the three guys mentioned above. They’ll need to be aggressive in finding ways to upgrade the roster if they want to continue their forward momentum. They’ve also got to figure out what to do with Javier Báez and Spencer Torkelson; the former is still owed $73 million over the next three years and the latter still hasn’t found much consistency at the major league level.

The past couple of offseasons, the Giants have been linked to some of the biggest free agents on the market without actually landing any of them. They’re rumored to be in on the Soto sweepstakes this winter, but it would be a surprise if Soto ended up in black and orange next year. Instead of one big splash, new president of baseball operations Buster Posey will have his work cut out for him, as the roster has a number of holes across the infield and in the starting rotation.

The Mets were one of the most fun teams to follow this year given their surprise run to the playoffs, but they’re stuck in the awkward position of still being in the middle of a transition, with some unexpected success fueling high expectations. They had 14 free agents depart from their roster, which is a big reason why their projection is so low even after all the success they enjoyed during the second half of 2024. The team will need to rebuild nearly its entire starting rotation while also finding a replacement for Pete Alonso.

Like so many of the other teams in this tier, there’s talent to be found on the Red Sox. Rafael Devers and Jarren Duran can carry the lineup, and the starting rotation took a big step forward this year (even if it ran out of steam by the end of the season). The big problem is that it all adds up to a merely average overall projection thanks to all the question marks elsewhere on the roster. Will Trevor Story ever be the guy Boston paid $140 million for? What can be expected from Lucas Giolito after his elbow injury? There’s a foundation here, but it’s built on pretty shaky ground and could use a lot of shoring up.

The Guardians emerged as the victors in a surprisingly competitive AL Central division race, though they have their work cut out for them if they want to defend that title. Normally an area of strength, their rotation looks like it will need a lot of help after losing Shane Bieber to an elbow injury and then free agency. And with David Fry’s elbow injury keeping him sidelined for the early part of next season, Cleveland is in even more desperate need of some help for the offense. The Guards could especially use an addition that comes in the form of a power threat.

With Paul Skenes, Jared Jones, and Mitch Keller anchoring their rotation, the Pirates already have an impressive collection of young pitchers to build around. Now they need to turn their attention to their lineup. Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz are good in their own right, but Pittsburgh’s offense desperately needs an infusion of top-end talent. Whether that comes in free agency (unlikely) or by trading for a bat or two (more likely), the quality of their starting pitching screams for big, aggressive moves to take advantage while the window is open.

There were plenty of positive signs on the field as the Athletics exited Oakland. Brent Rooker, Lawrence Butler, JJ Bleday, and Shea Langeliers form a potent middle of the order, and Mason Miller was absolutely dominant out of the bullpen. Still, their move to Sacramento overshadows all that progress on the field, and there’s still plenty of work to do to shore up the starting rotation before the A’s could be considered true contenders. And that work might just have to wait until they get their stadium situation in Las Vegas figured out.

The good news in Miami is that Sandy Alcantara, Jesús Luzardo, Eury Pérez, and Braxton Garrett should all be healthy for the majority of next season. The bad news is that the Marlins don’t really have a lineup capable of supporting all the talent in the starting rotation. Xavier Edwards’ second-half breakout and the promise shown by Connor Norby were both bright spots, but the Fish have plenty of holes up and down their lineup they’ll need to fill. Alcantara and Luzardo both have two more years of team control left, which should inspire a little urgency to figure things out before the Marlins have to reset their roster again.

The Angels have been one of the most aggressive teams early in the offseason, trading for Jorge Soler and signing Kyle Hendricks and Travis d’Arnaud. While those moves don’t move the needle all that much, they do provide this roster with some much needed depth. Those are the kinds of moves that are important for contenders to make as they solidify their rosters, but the Angels are far from truly contending. Sure, they still have Mike Trout, but he hasn’t played more than 140 games in a season since 2018. This roster will go as far as Trout can carry it and that all depends on his health.

There’s plenty of young talent in Cincinnati, but that’s been true for a few years now and the Reds still haven’t figured out a way to turn the corner; perhaps the addition of new manager Terry Francona will help this roster coalesce into a winner. Because this team is so loaded with internal options who moved through the farm system, it’ll be a hard sell to displace any of them with external additions. Any improvement in 2025 will likely need to come in the form of breakouts and bounce backs from their youngsters.

It feels like Washington is ready to turn the page on rebuilding and start looking forward to a competitive window opening up in the near future. With James Wood, Dylan Crews, CJ Abrams, and Luis García Jr. forming the next great core for the Nationals, it might be time to start thinking about adding to the roster to take a big step forward. Their starting rotation was much better than expected and there are a few more top prospects on the verge of making their debuts in the big leagues next year.

Shockingly, the White Sox aren’t projected to have the worst team in baseball. And after setting all sorts of records for futility last year, things couldn’t possibly get worse next year, right? Garrett Crochet and Luis Robert Jr. are both still on the South Side for now, but it’s more than likely they’ll be packing their bags by the next trade deadline. That means that 2025 needs to be all about beginning to identify the youngsters who might make up the next great White Sox team. The rebuilding process is just beginning in Chicago, and it’s going to take a while to turn the corner.

At least the White Sox have a direction, even if it’s to be headed into the baseball wilderness for a while. The Rockies have been stuck in that wilderness for years and have shown little sign of being able emerge from it. Sure, the breakouts of Brenton Doyle and Ezequiel Tovar are small steps forward, but that’s essentially it as far as high points are concerned. The pitching staff is a mess, and the lineup just isn’t good enough even though they enjoy the benefit of playing in Coors Field for half their games. There are a few big prospects on the horizon, but they’re too far off to have a big effect on the team’s fortunes in 2025.