Welcome to another edition of Five Things I Liked (Or Didn’t Like) This Week. September is a magical time for baseball. Half of the games are mostly for fun, with teams playing out the string and competing for bragging rights. Those games produce some delightful nonsense, because teams are often more willing to engage in tomfoolery when the stakes are low. The other half of the games (using half very broadly here, of course) are far more important than any games from earlier in the season; they determine playoff berths, home field advantage, and statistical milestones. Those games have all the intensity missing from the other half, right down to electric crowds and locked-in benches. That duality is a ton of fun. This year, we’ve even got a truly historic statistical chase going on to add to the excitement. Zach Lowe’s NBA column, which inspired this series, always hits its stride when teams are building up for the playoffs. I think that baseball trends in the same direction. Let’s get right to it.
1. When the Ball Doesn’t Lie
This is just outrageous:
The umpire is part of the field of play. That’s just how the rule works. Umpires do their best to get out of the way of batted balls, both for self-preservation and for the integrity of the game. John Bacon wasn’t trying to insert himself into the play; he was in foul territory and focused on getting the fair/foul call right, and there was simply no way to avoid this rip. Bryson Stott couldn’t believe it:
What a terrible time for that stroke of bad luck. The Phillies are playing for the top seed in the NL, and the game was tied in the bottom of the eighth. The difference between a double and an out there is huge; it’s a swing of roughly 20% win probability. Nothing that either team did accounted for that swing; it literally came down to random chance, a baseball happening to bounce off of a man trying desperately to get out of its way.
You could imagine that kind of bad beat turning the game around. A few Phillies hang their heads here, a few Rays get inspired there, and the postgame quotes all revolve around how that fluke play swung the momentum. I’ve certainly seen similar games, and similar stories, before. And it’s the Phillies! They have a history of stuff like this. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to predict one way the pendulum could have swung.
Instead, this happened:
And then this:
And this:
The Phillies won comfortably after that. Crazy bounces swing games, except when they don’t. It’s a good reminder that sometimes an event that feels unfair and insurmountable ends up not mattering at all.
2. Incredible Catches
The Tigers are hot right now, owners of the best record in baseball over the last month. They’re still on the outside of the playoff race, but they can at least dream about scenarios where they sneak in, something that would have sounded far-fetched at the trade deadline. Even their cameramen are making plays:
That’s an incredible snag. As Jason Benetti pointed out, he didn’t even stop filming while he did it. Watch his left hand remain on the camera even as he makes the catch. That’s concentration right there:
Hey, when you’re hot you’re hot. I find myself tuning into at least part of the Tigers broadcast nearly every day now, and goofy little gems like this are turning up everywhere. It’s partially because the team is having a lot of fun right now and partially because the broadcast just tends toward the delightful in general.
Want evidence that the team is feeling the magic? Their best player looked as amazed by the cameraman’s catch as I did:
It helps that the Tigers were already beating the pants off of the Rockies, but when you’re on a 19-9 run, it sure is easier to have fun at work.
This probably wouldn’t have made my weekly list if I weren’t just itching for a chance to use another clip from later this inning, though. Kirk Gibson, a player I’ve been linked to since before I have memories, is Detroit’s color commentator. He was telling Benetti a story about a time he was heckled, and I was really hoping it would be the time my dad heckled him. It was, instead, just a story about the fans in the bleachers riding him and getting under his skin. But it led to Benetti asking if he got annoyed when people poked him, and then doing this:
Yeah, it’s a good time to be a Tigers fan. You’ve got one of the best play-by-play announcers in the game calling a team on the rise. What more could you ask for?
3. Ohtani Odds
Let’s be honest here: I’m watching the Dodgers every day right now, and Shohei Ohtani’s chase for 50/50 is the most compelling story in the sport. I’m trying to catch every at-bat because I think I’ll remember this chase for years to come in the same way that Aaron Judge’s 62-homer season sticks in my memory.
With his recent burst of power, Ohtani is knocking on history’s door, with 47 homers and 48 steals. He still has 16 games to play – my simulation model thinks he’s 80% likely to hit the milestone by season’s end. It also thinks that the six-game homestand that stretches from September 20-26 is the best chance to see it:
Shohei Ohtani, 50/50 Odds by Game
| Day | Opponent | Home/Away | Odds of 50/50 | Cumulative Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/13 | Braves | Away | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 9/14 | Braves | Away | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 9/15 | Braves | Away | 0.4% | 0.5% |
| 9/16 | Braves | Away | 1.2% | 1.7% |
| 9/17 | Marlins | Away | 2.7% | 4.3% |
| 9/18 | Marlins | Away | 4.2% | 8.5% |
| 9/19 | Marlins | Away | 5.7% | 14.1% |
| 9/20 | Rockies | Home | 7.6% | 21.7% |
| 9/21 | Rockies | Home | 8.4% | 30.1% |
| 9/22 | Rockies | Home | 8.9% | 39.0% |
| 9/24 | Padres | Home | 8.3% | 47.2% |
| 9/25 | Padres | Home | 7.8% | 55.0% |
| 9/26 | Padres | Home | 7.1% | 62.1% |
| 9/27 | Rockies | Away | 6.7% | 68.8% |
| 9/28 | Rockies | Away | 5.7% | 74.5% |
| 9/29 | Rockies | Away | 4.9% | 79.4% |
In 48% of my simulations, Ohtani’s record-breaking game is one of those six. The preceding seven games have only a 14.1% combined chance. That largely comes down to the fact that Atlanta’s pitching staff is good and its stadium is much less friendly than Dodger Stadium for lefty power.
That’s probably the ideal outcome for Dodgers fans, which is cool. Records are best set at home. Those games are going to have electric atmospheres – a huge stadium full of people hoping to see the most talented player of our generation put his name in the record books forever. I’m extremely excited to watch them, and honestly, I’ll take any excuse to talk about Ohtani these days. Watching him has always been a treat, but never more so than right now.
4. Mega Walk-Off
Tyler O’Neill is on a ridiculous tear right now. Over the past two weeks, he’s been Boston’s best hitter by a mile – six home runs will do that. He has two separate multi-homer games in that stretch, and the Red Sox have needed every last bit of that juice to stay on the periphery of the playoff hunt. Wednesday night, though, O’Neill kicked his act into overdrive.
The visiting Orioles scratched a run together in the top of the 10th inning. The Red Sox were in decent position to tie the game after Jackson Holliday booted a one-out grounder. But then O’Neill called game:
Tyler O’Neill sends a #walkoff HR way over the Monster! pic.twitter.com/nRtMZdBOo1
— MLB (@MLB) September 12, 2024
Not all game-ending homers are created equal. That one was majestic, and the Green Monster provided a backdrop that underscored just how high and deep it went. That’s obviously a home run in every stadium, but something about Fenway makes it look grander. Disappearing into the night like that is just more impressive when there’s a huge wall beneath it.
That’s not O’Neill’s longest homer of the season. It isn’t even his longest of the past few weeks; that honor goes to another Monster ball from earlier in the series:
But when you combine the angle, the atmosphere, and the place in the game, the walk-off blast is one of my favorite home runs of the season. The Red Sox dugout felt similarly; they mobbed O’Neill when he reached home:
The Red Sox probably aren’t making the playoffs this year, but they’re playing in meaningful and exciting series down the stretch. They took two of three from Baltimore, and now they’re in the Bronx trying to spoil the Yankees’ September. They have another home series against the Twins left, and given Minnesota’s recent swoon, that one could have playoff implications for both sides. The Red Sox aren’t a powerhouse, but their games are incredibly fun to watch right now.
5. Tight Races
That Red Sox-Orioles game was only half of the AL East’s extra-inning extravaganza on Wednesday night. The Yankees and Royals faced off with high stakes on both sides; the Yankees are trying to hold off Baltimore for a first-round bye and Kansas City has an outside shot at catching the Guardians in the AL Central. The two teams exchanged scoring chances for the first nine innings and ended up in a 2-2 stalemate. They each cashed in their automatic runner in the 10th, but the Royals couldn’t score in the top of the 11th, which led to a game-ending play at the plate:
That game had huge playoff implications. It pushed the Yankees 1 1/2 games ahead of Baltimore, which gives them some breathing room in the divisional race. That breathing room will be important, because if the O’s don’t get swept in their September 24-26 series against the Yankees, they’ll clinch the head-to-head tiebreaker. The Yankees probably need to win the division outright rather than ending with the same record – if they sweep the O’s, a tie isn’t particularly likely anyway. If either of these two extra-inning games had gone the other way, things would look very different today.
That’s not the only race going on, though. The Mets and Braves are trading wins and losses as they hunt down the last spot (or two spots if the Diamondbacks fall completely apart) in the National League field. The sawtooth pattern of their Wild Card odds in recent weeks tells the tale:
The Mets got started early on Wednesday with a remarkable turnaround. Blue Jays starter Bowden Francis took a no-hit bid into the ninth inning with a 1-0 lead. But Francisco Lindor continued his months-long hot streak and tied the game up with a single swing. Gary Cohen’s “Lind-sanity” call was absolutely perfect:
Lind-sanity!
Francisco Lindor ties it with the first @Mets hit of the game! pic.twitter.com/9nc1kmcTuz
— MLB (@MLB) September 11, 2024
The Mets poured on five more runs against the Blue Jays bullpen and finished with a 6-2 win. Atlanta’s game didn’t start until after the Mets had locked this one up, and the Braves offense looked flat in a 5-1 loss to the Nationals. Combine the one-game lead and the fact that the season is getting shorter and shorter, and it’s the first time our odds have favored the Mets over the Braves all year.
Of course, things looked different a day earlier, when the Braves clobbered Washington 12-0 and the Mets got worked over by the Blue Jays. This one is going to come right down to the wire, and every game is likely to matter. There might not be a ton of playoff races going on at the moment, but that just means there’s more time to spend marveling at the ones that are still being contested. September baseball is at its best when there are meaningful games and chases. Between Ohtani’s pursuit of history and these two close races between divisional rivals, this year is delivering in spades so far.
