In our up and down world of fantasy baseball, identifying when to sell high on players benefiting from a streak of good fortune can be the difference between winning and losing your league. Every season brings its share of breakout stars but also features players whose performance outpaces their underlying metrics. Recognizing these lucky streaks and capitalizing on them by moving players at their peak value can help you build a championship roster. In this week’s rendition of Hitter Profiles, we dive into the art of selling high on overperforming players, ensuring you stay ahead of your league and maximize your team’s potential.
Heliot Ramos
Heliot Ramos has started this season on fire, hitting .307 with 10 homers and 35 RBIs in just 39 games. With top 10% exit velocity, barrel rates, and hard-hit rates, the well-regarded prospect appears to have finally aligned the stars since joining the Giants’ lineup. However, there are reasons to believe this level of production won’t continue. Over the last month, Ramos has found himself in the top 10 qualified players for ground ball rate, with 57% of his contact resulting in grounders. When combined with an Aaron Judge-like 45% home run per fly ball rate, regression is inevitable, as his career average sits closer to 20%. Additionally, his elevated BABIP of .391 and a 29% strikeout rate suggest that luck has played a contributing role in his 2024 success. There is no question that Ramos hits the ball incredibly hard, and fantasy managers have benefited from his recent success. However, he is performing above his ultimate potential. Selling high on Ramos now could provide a sizable return, allowing you to bolster your team with more reliable, long-term contributors.
Ceddanne Rafaela
Ceddanne Rafaela has been on a tear lately, ranking as the 32nd player on the Player Rater over the last month. During this hot streak, he’s hitting .341 with three homers and four steals. His counting stats have been impressive as well, with 28 combined runs and RBIs, contributing to a strong 137 wRC+. Many fantasy managers, aware of Rafaela’s prospect pedigree, might see this as his long-awaited breakout. However, caution is warranted. Rafaela’s .475 BABIP and 30% strikeout rate are major red flags, suggesting that his current performance is unsustainable. Additionally, his 22% infield fly rate and 21% hard-hit rate indicate that continued success is not likely. While his value may not be sky-high, it is unlikely to continue climbing as his Savant page is ice cold (below). Now is the perfect time to sell high on Rafaela before the inevitable regression sets in.
Mark Vientos
As is often the case with young players in New York, fans seem divided on the potential of Mark Vientos. Through 31 games this season, he has been hitting .305 with six homers, 18 runs, and 17 RBIs. While the opportunity for playing time is there, Vientos has shown signs of regression compared to last season. Firstly, his hard-hit rate has decreased by nearly 10 percentage points, and his fly ball rate has dipped below the league average. Vientos’ calling card is his power, but he isn’t giving himself enough chances to showcase it. Moreover, he is more realistically a .260 hitter with no speed, a common profile in today’s fantasy baseball landscape. Adding to his challenges, Brett Baty is performing well in the minors, increasing competition for the third base position. Despite Vientos’ perfect 1.000 fielding percentage, his defense at third has raised some concerns.
Manny Machado jogs out a ground ball and completely bails out an error by Mark Vientos pic.twitter.com/XF9tepgUDw
— jack (@Jolly_Olive) June 15, 2024
With these underlying concerns, Vientos should be more worried about maintaining his job than leading fantasy teams to victory. Selling high on him now could be a shrewd move to maximize value before his performance or playing time decline.
