Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat –10/22/24

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to the pre-World Series edition of my chat. And wow, what a matchup we have ahead of us. For once the two number one seeds (just the third time in this millennium after 2013 and 2020)…

Jay Jaffe: and the two likely MVPs, Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani (the subjects of an article that should go live as we chat. UPDATE: it’s here)…

Jay Jaffe: the most historically common matchup in World Series history (the Yankees have won eight out of 11 meetings), and one with great personal resonance, as I was an 11-year-old Dodgers fan the last time these two teams met in 1981.

Jay Jaffe: Plus, i get to cover the New York end of the series. So yeah, pretty excited here.

Jay Jaffe: (and apologies, my lunch just arrived so the beginning of this chat may be a bit slowed)

Ed: Is the Yankees SP Depth the biggest advantage in this series?

Jay Jaffe: I think so; we saw how hard it can be to string together a good bullpen game. At the same time, we also saw how comparatively little starting pitching mattered for the Dodgers, who have gotten a 6.08 ERA from their starters, who have averaged only about 3 2/3 innings per turn in the postseason.

I did my annual check-in on postseason starting pitching trends yesterday, btw. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/winning-ugly-a-look-at-this-years-postseas…

Fred: Rizzo hit much better than I expected in the ALCS, but also fielded much worse.  What do you see him being able to do in the WS?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t expect him to hit .429, as he did in the ALCS, and I don’t expect him to be as bad defensively as he looked there. But I wouldn’t be surprised if we see plenty of Oswaldo Cabrera, Defensive Replacement

Guest: Can’t the world series just start already? No, Meg Rowley, noted baseball witch asked that one of the LCS go six games to keep to the original schedule. Also, good Lord man, let Freddie Freeman rest and recover a bit.

Jay Jaffe: I’m sure Freddie isn’t the only one using this time to heal (Rizzo is another) but four days in the doldrums feels like a lot.

Pitching Chaos: Is it wrong to say the WS will be decided by whether the Yankees “good enough” starters can be better than the Dodgers middle relief options?

Jay Jaffe: I think it’s a good place to look for cues as to what’s going to happen but it’s worth noting that while Treinen has notched three saves, things are more fluid, as Roberts has used Phillips and Kopech to close in the not-too-distant past.

JK: Feels to me the Mets missed a golden opportunity; got hot and opponents weren’t full strength.  I’ve had “future is bright” feelings before.  Convince me that’s true?

Jay Jaffe: To my eyes, the case for that has as much to do with the David Stearns front office and Carlos Mendoza dugout as it does the roster. They’re a very skilled pair; Stearns will have money to play with this winter with the likes of Alonso, Severino, Quintana, Bader and Martinez coming off the books (though I suspect some of them could be back), and I suspect Mendoza’s in-game management will improve with experience. This could be a very different looking team but I think it’s one in good hands.

wheelhouse: book it: nestor cortes the damaso marte to ohtani’s ryan howard

Jay Jaffe: it does sound like Cortes will be on the roster and could be a factor; the question is whether there are enough key situations for him to have such an impact. Color me skeptical given Cortes’ relative unfamiliarity with high-leverage relief but your pick is noted here for posterity.

Billy eppler: How many years will Juan Soto get

Jay Jaffe: probably something like a 13- or 14- year deal to jack up the sticker price but lower the AAV, and i suspect there will be opt-outs in there as well.

Not Not Jesse Winker: Do you think David Stearns will be disciplined to the point where he doesn’t blow away the market in a deal for Soto?  Or doesn’t take the opportunity to pull a Soto, Burnes, Alonso trifecta? They offered the most for Yamamoto but a small part of me is still worried Stearns isn’t the big game hunter as much as an org builder and value seeker.

Jay Jaffe: The question doesn’t come down to what Stearns wants, it’s what Steve Cohen wants. If the owner says go get Soto, damn the cost, the Mets could land him.

I have a hard time seeing them keeping Alonso while also landing Burnes and Soto, especially when they have a ready-made option for first on a post-Alonso roster in Vientos (opening third for either Mauricio or Baty)

Ribald Acuna: Atlanta made a lot of moves to acquire Kelenic last offseason. Do you think he’s relegated to the bench going forward or is there still hope for him?

Jay Jaffe: I’m just about ready to give up on Kelenic as a full-time player, as the change of scenery wasn’t enough to unlock his potential. He looks like a platoon guy to me.

Dan: Are the Yankees more or less likely to re-sign Juan Soto if they finish the job? Or are the events independent you think?

Jay Jaffe: Independent — he’ll tell you otherwise but I think getting here was a bigger deal than winning it. He’s seen that the Soto Yankees are good enough to play for a championship. Money, and the chance to get back here via whatever team he chooses, will be what matters.

Mike Trout: What does Alonso’s next contract look like and what would you offer? Seems like it’ll be a landmine for whoever signs him but I wonder if Steve Cohen cares.

Jay Jaffe: I don’t see enough secondary skills in Alonso to go very high on him, maybe maxing out around 4/$100M. I don’t think that will get it done, but a righty first baseman with no speed and defensive limitations isn’t worth going 5+ years I don’t think. Cohen may feel differently but I’d guess a lot hinges on how the other free agent pursuits play out.

WinTwins0410: Jay, do you expect a Hall of Fame Classic Baseball Committee ballot (with eight names) to be unveiled this week?  Last year, it dropped on a Thursday.  It dropped last year on Oct. 19 for a Dec. 3 meeting at the winter meetings.  This year, the winter meetings are 5 to 8 days later.  So in theory, the ballot would drop anytime from Oct. 24 to Oct. 27 — is that what you’re thinking?  Also, who’s likeliest to appear on the eight-person ballot?  I’m predicting some combination of Dick Allen, Steve Garvey, Dave Parker, Maury Wills, Doc Adams, John Donaldson, Tommy John, Luis Tiant, Billy Martin, George Scales, Ken Boyer, Vic Harris and Doc Adams, with Bobby Grich as a surprise.  That’s 14 for an eight-man ballot.  Your thoughts?

Jay Jaffe: Ugh. Your math strongly suggests an announcement on Thursday and I absolutely hate that this gets dropped so close to the World Series. The time to do this would have been today — no games yesterday, none for a few more days.

Jay Jaffe: I haven’t given the makeup of the ballot a ton of thought beyond the fact that I don’t like pitting the Negro Leagues figures against ones whom we’ve seen on so many ballots in the past, but I do expect Allen, Donaldson, Harris, and Adams to be four of the eight. I don’t expect Grich.

Guest: Thoughts on Stanton’s HOF chances?

Jay Jaffe: Improving with his postseason success, that’s for sure. I like his odds if he gets to a scandal-free 500 homers, but he’s got 71 to go and probably needs three seasons to do that (hasn’t had more than 35 in a season since 2018). He’ll be short on JAWS but with the postseason stuff, the MVP, and as a Statcast marvel, he’ll probably have enough to draw significant support

Nate: How many future HOFs are we watching in this Series?

Jay Jaffe: Most likely six: Judge, Soto, Cole, Betts, Ohtani, and Freeman (plus the injured Kershaw). Stanton i have at least one step down from those guys but still possible. Anybody else would have to be somebody whose major MLB accomplishments are mostly ahead of them, like Yamamoto

John B: T Tango says that a war metric for post season could easily be developed so that we could start assessing post-season WAR in HOF cases.  Is that something you could lobby for ?

Jay Jaffe: I’d be interested to see it but I don’t think it solves everything  — having the opportunity to play in a World Series is largely out of a single player’s control, and there’s a danger in overreacting to small samples. I would be interested to see what an Ortiz or a Brock or Bumgarner has added but we already know from WPA that it’s only a few wins at most.

Max: As a Dodger fan I’m wondering how you would you compare the Yankees pitching staff to the Padres.

Jay Jaffe: I feel like the Padres had a stronger staff than the Yankees,  at least until Musgrove went down. Stronger 4-man rotation, at least with Cole not at full strength, and a more fearsome late-game trio that mixed lefty and righty

Jay Jaffe: Tim Hill has had some big moments but I’d take Tanner Scott in terms of late-game lefty options.

Oddball Herrera: Trent Grisham is making the world series roster and providing a ray of hope for players everywhere with fraught relationships w/ the Mendoza line

Jay Jaffe: Chris Taylor wipes his brow, secure in the knowledge that his .202 left him on the right side of the line.

Guest: Thoughts on roster changes going into the series? Do the Yankees activate Cortes and drop Stroman? Any other moves?

Jay Jaffe: I would; I don’t see what Stroman was doing there if fresh-onto-the-roster Mark Leiter Jr. was the choice in those big spots once Hamilton got injured.

Guest: Jay, I feel like this World Series has a lot of future hall of famers. Betts, Freeman, Ohtani, Soto, Judge, and perhaps Stanton and Dave Roberts. Is this the most we’ve seen in a series in decades?

Jay Jaffe: I should have counted Roberts above, which would bring us to 8 if I also include Stanton. I think the last one of similar size was the 1996 World Series, with 10 11: Cox, Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz, Chipper, McGriff (added post-publication) Torre, Boggs, Raines, Rivera, Jeter. Andruw would make it 11 12.

JK: Schwarber deal a good comp for Alonso?

Jay Jaffe: Schwarber was less valuable in his years leading up to free agency (10.2 WAR through age 28) but that’s a sensible comp and contract (4/$79M). Alonso has produced 17.3 WAR through age 28 and I wouldn’t be surprised if Boras is telling him he can get double that amount (though I don’t think he will)

Mo Vaughn: Vientos looked good at third to my eyes, but the prevalent opinion is that he can’t hack it. How much are my eyes failing me here?

Jay Jaffe: Vientos has made himself playable there, though had -4 FRV and -5 DRS this year. It’s not that he couldn’t continue there, it’s that they have other young players who are more skilled defensively and a configuration with, say Baty/Mauricio at third and Mauricio/Acuña at second would seem to bump Vientos to first.

Benjamin: Are there really any non-NY teams that might pay for soto? Can’t see philly w them already rocking such a high payroll, dodgers have to be close to maxed out…toronto?

Jay Jaffe: Toronto is said to be a threat, yes. If the Giants were ever going to take the $300M+ they planned to spend on Judge and then Correa, that would be another potential suitor though i think it would be a tougher sell for Soto. Cold the new Orioles owner go big? I guess we’ll see.

Henry: Are GB pitchers truly more volatile than big K guys, even with same underlying metrics? (say FIP, xERA, xwOBA, Stuff+, Location+)

Jay Jaffe: yes because BABIP is subject to more season-to-season variance than K/BB/HR rates

Benjamin: Any insight on why there seems to be such a strong preference for Verdugo > Grisham? Virtually identical xwOBA with Verdugo being a negative defender & Grisham being positive?

Jay Jaffe: The Yankees absolutely do not view Verdugo as a negative defender. Boone won’t shut up about his defense. They also do like his more contact-oriented approach within the mix of their lineup, and I know Grisham has sometimes been accused of being too passive at the plate. (36.5% swing rate!)

Jake: With the collapse of RSNs, it seems like there are four rich teams (NYY, NYM, PHI and LAD) and everyone else. Is there any way for MLB to mitigate this problem or is it just tough luck until whenever these cable deals end?

Phil: I know the Dodgers keep saying it’s not happening, but imagine it’s game 7, they’re out of pitchers… what are the chances we see Ohtani throw an inning? Is it truly 0%?

Jay Jaffe: You can imagine it all you want, but I don’t see it happening. More likely it’s Ben Casparius giving up the winning run in the 12th inning of Game 7 or something like that.

Mike Trout: Didn’t there used to be a rule about a team not being able to re-sign their free agents for a certain period of time in the offseason after their window closes? What am I thinking of?

Jay Jaffe: Yes, it was awful and probably illegal.

Jay Jaffe: Can’t recall exactly when it ended but there was the famous Tim Raines game from 1987, where he went bananas against the Mets in an NBC Game of the Week in his May 2 debut.

Guest: Is there a rule that would prevent a player from doing dizzy bat prior to taking a home run trot?  And if not, why has this not happened?  That would be way more entertaining than merely tossing your bat as a celebration

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think there’s a written rule to that effect but nobody with a goddamn lick of common sense is gonna do that because they’d be wearing the next pitch they face to the emergency room.

Sodo Mojo: Do you think the Mariner’s should stand pat with the current Jrod, Raley, Arozarena, and Robles outfield or should they be shopping for upgrades at one of the corners?

Jay Jaffe: That should be a pretty decent group from which to make an outfield. Their bigger problem is the infield, where they don’t have a single above-average performer.

Doc: More Mets!  Does Severino get a QO?  And, let’s say they sign Soto, and let’s say Winker remains unsigned that long:  do they bring him back to be a reasonably-priced DH or do they stick the displaced Marte there?

Jay Jaffe: Sevy should get a QO; going year-to-year on a pitcher with his history would be ideal. A Marte/Winker DH platoon could work, but I don’t see either of them being able to handle the full-time job well enough.

Phil: Are you taking the over or the under on Teoscar Hernandez getting a 3 year $72m deal this offseason? And does your answer depend on whether he has a big world series or not?

Jay Jaffe: Over. 4/$100Mish. A good World Series would help his cause but it’s not essential.

Mike Trout: Dark horse for Soto: The Nationals?

Jay Jaffe: It’s been mentioned enough that yeah, sure, ok. But I don’t see him going back.

Jay Jaffe: OK folks, that’s enough outta me for now. Thanks so much for stopping by! And while i know the wait might be interminable, hold tight because I think this should be a memorable World Series.