Justin Verlander Doesn’t Look Like a Postseason Option for the Astros

Justin Verlander did not have a good night on Sunday against the Diamondbacks in Houston. The 41-year-old future Hall of Famer retired just nine of the 19 batters he faced, allowing eight runs in three innings in one of the worst starts of his 19-year career — and not an isolated one, either, as he’s been struggling since returning from his second stint on the injured list. For as difficult as it is to believe, even in a rotation that’s been beset by injuries this year, Verlander might not be one of the Astros’ starters when the playoffs roll around.

At Minute Maid Park on Sunday evening, Verlander worked a scoreless first inning, getting ahead of all four hitters he faced and allowing just one baserunner; he hit Joc Pederson on the left leg with a two-out, two-strike curveball. His second and third innings were another story, however, as he allowed seven runs on a pair of homers by Pavin Smith, and, well, you can do the math as to the traffic that preceded them.

Struggling to command his fastball and not fooling anyone with his secondaries, Verlander netted just four swings and misses from among his 75 pitches, all on his four-seamer, and got just six called strikes from his curve, slider, and changeup combined (18% CSW%). For just the fifth time in 523 career starts and the first time since July 2, 2017, he didn’t strike out a single hitter. The eight runs he allowed were one short of his career high, set on April 15, 2017; he hadn’t allowed exactly eight runs since June 26, 2016.

“I felt good physically, but obviously the results were atrocious,” said Verlander afterwards. “Seemed like they had a really good game plan and saw some pitches pretty well, in some surprising spots,” he added. More, via The Athletic’s Chandler Rome:

“I found myself behind a lot because I wasn’t able to land [my secondary pitches], and they did some damage on some fastballs because of that,” Verlander said. “I thought the fastball was better today overall. The offspeed was a bit inconsistent location-wise, which got me in a little bit of trouble.”

This is just the latest start in what’s been a trying season for Verlander, who was behind schedule when he reported to camp in February and started the year on the injured list due to shoulder inflammation. He didn’t make his season debut until April 19, and made just 10 starts with a 3.95 ERA and 5.00 FIP before landing on the IL due to neck discomfort. He missed over 10 weeks, and since returning has allowed three homers and 19 runs in 17.2 innings, with 13 of those runs allowed in 7.2 innings over his last two starts. He hasn’t pitched more than five innings since May 29, and his season ERA has ballooned to 5.30, his FIP to 5.10. Both of those figures are career highs, as is his 1.69 homers per nine; meanwhile, his 19.3% strikeout rate and 12.0% strikeout-to-walk differential are his lowest marks since his subpar 2014.

So, what’s gone wrong? Verlander has lost a bit of zip, but the bigger issue is that the shape of his pitches has changed. His average four-seam velocity has declined from 94.3 mph last year — a season in which he was plenty serviceable, pitching to a 3.22 ERA and 3.84 FIP for the Mets and Astros — to 93.5 overall, though it was at 94.1 mph on Sunday night. His changeup is getting less horizontal break than it did last year, his curve is getting less movement in both planes, and his slider is getting notably less spin and far less vertical movement. But what’s a bit of a head-scratcher is how differently our two pitch modeling systems view those offerings. Throwing in his Cy Young-winning 2022 and last year’s numbers for comparison:

Those are two very different readings when it comes to Verlander’s breaking balls. Stuff+ grades his slider and curve as much better than average, while PitchingBot grades them as well below average. I think the discrepancy owes to characteristics that the latter captures, such as count and location, that the former does not; those aspects are folded into Location+, though by the Stuff+ system, Verlander is still slightly above average in that area. The trend of Verlander’s Bot overall grades jibes with with what we’ve seen lately, a pitcher on the decline.

Turning to Verlander’s results broken down by pitch type:

Verlander’s wOBA against his four-seamer and curve have both risen dramatically relative to last season; batters are slugging over .500 against both. His slider has been only a bit worse in terms of results, though its whiff rate is way down, and he’s throwing it a lot less often while roughly doubling the usage of his changeup, the one pitch whose results have improved since 2023.

One strange aspect of Verlander’s season is that he pitched reasonably well in the period between his two IL stints, when the Astros were scuffling, but the day that he went back on, June 18, was the same day that the Astros lost to the lowly White Sox and fell to 33-40, a season-high 10-games behind the Mariners in the AL West race. In the span of his second absence, the Astros went 35-17. Since his return, they’re 9-9, but they now lead the Mariners by 4.5 games, and have a 96.1% chance of winning the division according to our Playoff Odds.

The Astros have done all of this despite getting little to nothing from four starters who played key roles on their 2022 World Series winning team and who they hoped would contribute this season. Both Cristian Javier and José Urquidy underwent Tommy John surgery in early June; the former made just seven starts before being sidelined, while the latter didn’t make it past a May rehab stint. Meanwhile, both Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. experienced setbacks while rehabbing from their 2023 elbow surgeries (Tommy John surgery in May for the former, flexor tendon repair and bone spur removal in June for the latter), and won’t pitch for the Astros this season.

All of that has left the team with a very different rotation from years past, with 30-year-old lefty Framber Valdez and 25-year-old righty Hunter Brown the only current starters who made at least a dozen starts for last year’s team. Valdez, who himself missed 15 days in April due to elbow inflammation but has shown no ill effects, is the staff ace. He’s pitched to a 2.97 ERA and 3.21 FIP, and one has to figure that he’ll be Houston’s Game 1 starter come the playoffs. Brown was torched for a 9.78 ERA in 23 innings in March and April; in his April 11 start against the Royals, he allowed 11 hits and nine runs in just two-thirds of an inning. He’s rebounded in fine fashion by integrating a sinker against righties, giving him a pitch that runs in on their hands while his other pitches tail away. It’s worked like a charm, as he’s posted a 2.28 ERA and 3.23 FIP in 130 innings since the start of May, lowering his full-season marks into respectable range (3.47 ERA, 3.63 FIP).

Rounding out what has lately been a six-man rotation are 33-year-old lefty Yusei Kikuchi, 30-year-old righty Ronel Blanco, and 24-year-old righty Spencer Arrighetti, a trio of pitchers who have taken drastically different routes to get here. Kikuchi is a former NPB star who’s now in his walk year; he was dealt to the Astros by the Blue Jays on July 29 in exchange for a trio of prospects. Where he was only so-so in Toronto, pitching to a 4.75 ERA and 3.67 FIP in 115.2 innings, he’s been exceptional for Houston, posting a 3.07 ERA and 3.23 FIP in 41 innings. As old friend Eno Sarris recently explained, the Astros directed him to adjust his arsenal:

The most obvious change has been throttling the use of his curveball in exchange for more sliders. No matter what metric you look at, the slider was superior to the slower breaking ball. Be it slugging allowed (.430 for the curve this year, .301 for the slider), or whiff rate (29 percent for the slider, 28 percent for the curve), or Stuff+, which looks only at physical characteristics (112 for the slider, 99 for the curve), the slider looks like the plus pitch to feature in Kikuchi’s arsenal. For good reason, as there are only four qualified starters who throw a harder one, and only one of those (Gavin Stone) gets more drop along with that plus velocity.

The pitch has given Kikuchi a new weapon against righties when thrown low and away. He’s lowered his wOBA allowed against them from .331 to .267, but he’s also cut his wOBA allowed against lefties from .298 to .207, and upped his overall strikeout rate from 26.2% to 32.1%.

Blanco was a man of mystery until he threw the season’s first no-hitter on April 1. He’s a Dominican-born late bloomer who debuted with the Astros in 2022 but until last year hadn’t made more than two starts in a season since 2017, his second in pro ball. After making seven starts and 10 relief appearances last year (he graduated from rookie status as a 35+ FV prospect), he won the fifth starter job out of spring training and has taken a big step forward on the strength of his slider and changeup. The slider has generated a 32.6% whiff rate while holding batters to a .183 average and .288 slugging percentage; its 16-run value ranks second in the majors according to Statcast. The changeup has generated a 35.2% whiff rate while holding batters to a .182 average and .370 slugging percentage, and overall he’s delivered a 2.99 ERA and 4.29 FIP in 150.1 innings. That’s already more than double last year’s 73.1 between Triple-A Sugar Land and Houston, and well beyond his previous career high of 88, set in 2017. His two innings of relief on Saturday are may signal his postseason role.

Arrighetti is a former sixth-round pick (2021) out of the University of Louisiana-Lafayette who entered the season as the Astros’ no. 7 prospect, a 40+ FV starter with a plus slider and a 91-94 mph fastball but fringy command. He joined the rotation on April 10, when he was thrashed for seven runs in three innings by the Royals, and through July 2 was still carrying a 6.13 ERA and 4.61 FIP. He’s been much better since, lowering his overall marks to 4.82 and 4.22, respectively; in August, he had games with 11, 12, and 13 strikeouts. That said, he couldn’t get out of the first inning of his September 4 start against the Reds, retiring just two of the 11 hitters he faced and getting charged with nine runs (three earned). He’s likely one of the odd men out when it comes to crafting a postseason rotation, particularly given that his 133.1 innings is already a career high, surpassing last year’s 124.2 innings at Sugar Land and Double-A Corpus Christi.

A quick comparison of the Astros’ starters’ recent performances illustrates that manager Joe Espada has much better options than Verlander at his disposal when it comes to assembling a postseason rotation. Here’s that sextet’s performance since the All-Star break:

The Astros will only need three starters for the Wild Card Series, but if they advance they’ll need a fourth, in which case the choice would appear to come down to one of the two pitchers who’s in uncharted territory for innings, or one who’s been quite ineffective lately.

With three Cy Youngs, 260 career wins, 3,405 strikeouts, and the no. 19 ranking in S-JAWS, Verlander is a first-ballot Hall of Famer in the making. But barring a dramatic turnaround over the final few weeks of the season, the case for him starting in the postseason is thin unless one considers his past glories. That’s not to say this should be the end of the line for Verlander — who will be a free agent this winter since he’ll fall short of the 140 innings needed to trigger a $35 million conditional option — but he and the Astros have work to do to figure out how he can regain effectiveness.