When Dan Szymborski published his 2024 ZiPS Projections prior to Opening Day, the Kansas City Royals were penciled in for a 73-89 record and a fourth place finish in the American League Central. Coming off of a cellar-dweller season where they lost 106 games — no previous Royals team had lost more — that would have represented a clear step in the right direction.
The predicted step has materialized into a sizable stride. With two months left in the regular season, the Matt Quatraro-managed club is not only currently projected to finish with 86 wins, their postseason odds are hovering around a promising 59%, up from 13.2% at the start of the campaign. Dan hinted at that possibility in his March 27 piece. My colleague wrote that “a Royals playoff appearance would be unlikely but not unreasonably so.”
How have the Royals managed to exceed expectations? I sat down with Quatraro on the eve of the All-Star break — his team has since won nine of 13, and added Lucas Erceg, Paul DeJong, and Michael Lorenzen prior to Tuesday’s trade deadline — to get his perspective.
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David Laurila: Your team has been better than expected. Why?
Matt Quatraro: “Pitching is the name of the game. Our starting pitching has been tremendous. [Seth] Lugo, [Cole] Ragans, [Michael] Wacha, [Brady] Singer. [Alec] Marsh, as well. They’ve taken the ball. They’ve been durable. They’ve kept us in a million games. All in all, the bullpen has been pretty solid, too. There have been some ups and downs, but they’ve weathered some storms.
“Position player-wise, the guys who were here last year are a year more experienced. They’ve figured out how to deal with failure a little bit better. We’ve done well on the bases. But really, it comes down to pitching.”
Laurila: What about the process behind the results? Is the improvement due to more than just the natural growth of young players?
Quatraro: “I don’t know just how measurable it is, but we did some things in the offseason as far as making sure that people were aware of goals and values. I don’t think we avoided those things the year before, but we might have been more intentional about it this offseason and into the spring. And everybody we added through free agency or trade was someone who had postseason experience and knows what it takes to get there. This was intentional on [general manager J.J. Picollo’s] part.”
Laurila: Did the two of you discuss the need for more of a veteran presence last season?
Quatraro: “We did. One of the benefits of being in a tough spot last year was that we didn’t have to wait until the season was over to plan for this year. We wanted to at least get some ideas out there.”
Laurila: What about the work players were doing in the offseason? Was anything different there?
Quatraro: “You know how it is in the offseason. The hitters generally go somewhere to hit — they all have guys they hit with in the winter — but the communication with our guys and their guys was really good. Pitching guys, same thing. Some of them go to Tread. Some of them go to Driveline. Some of them have their own guys. But if you look at it, the turnover on the pitching staff was enormous. The communication between our pitching coaches and those guys, what was expected, was outstanding.”
Laurila: There was no secret sauce, but rather just trying to build a smarter and better pitching staff?
Quatraro: “I don’t think there is a secret sauce for anybody. Right? I mean, these guys have to put the work in. Like I said, we were more intentional. We put some guys in the room, like Will Smith, who know how to help team-build. We were also a little more intentional with some of that stuff internally. But we didn’t go over the top. It’s not like we had retreats or parties or anything like that. It was more of getting the right people together.”
Laurila: Did last year’s team underachieve, or was it simply not ready to achieve?
Quatraro: “That’s a good question. If I had to say over or under, I think we underachieved. I don’t think we were a 106-loss team talent-wise. But that’s what we were. We have to own up to that. It’s what we played as.”
Laurila: What about performance relative the talent level this season?
Quatraro: “I really haven’t given that any thought. I think when you’re in the middle of it and are just going day to day… and that’s what the main focus is: What can we do today? Right? How do we compete with these guys today. We don’t worry about August or September. You can only stay in the moment, so the next step is just putting as many consistent games together as you can. We’ve been pretty good about that. Whether we had a good day or a rough day, we’ve turned yesterday’s page to today.”
Laurila: You were on the coaching staffs of some pretty good Tampa Bay teams before coming to Kansas City. Are this year’s Royals similar to any of those Rays teams?
Quatraro: “I’d say yes. One thing that has struck me quite a bit is that we’ve been in tons of games. Whether we’ve won or lost them, you look up in the sixth inning and we’re either up or down one, or we’re tied. Those were the kind of games that I learned a lot about when I was with Tampa. We’d be playing teams like the Red Sox or Yankees, with their star-studded lineups, and it would be 2-2 or 3-2 going into the later innings and we had a chance to win. This team has been in a lot of games like that. We’re also doing a lot of similar things. You’ve seen Tampa play; it’s a lot of matchups, a lot of using guys in multiple roles out of the bullpen. With the veteran starters we have, we’ve probably taken them further; they’ve logged a lot of innings. But yeah, there are definitely similarities.”
