Howdy again folks. After a week off for Mother’s Day and to hit a little reset, I’m back again with more of that sweet, up the middle goodness.
I figure we’ve had enough time pass to do an early season retrospective on some of my rankings made back in Spring Training to take a peek at some of the surprises—both good and bad—so far this season.
Let’s take a look at where they rank at their position according to the player rater, where I put them, and try to figure out where I missed.
Undervalued – Elly De La Cruz – SS Rank #1, Preseason SS Rank #6
So far this year, the only person remotely in Elly’s neighborhood in terms of fantasy value for shortstops is Mookie Betts, who is very much in the running for NL MVP alongside Dodgers teammate Shohei Ohtani.
I had my hesitation in putting stock in a stolen base threat who had been striking out an alarming amount—but then again, I also didn’t expect him to be on base enough to be on pace for 93 steals.
There’s still a ton of swing and miss in his game, but it isn’t for a lack of discipline; he’s actually taken a nice step forward in swing decisions and chase rate.
With my biggest concerns around his profile alleviated, I have zero hesitation in saying that Elly should continue being an absolute monster.
Overvalued – Nico Hoerner – 2B Rank #19, Preseason 2B Rank #7
Boy was this one disappointing, and I am intentionally following up on Elly with Nico Hoerner because he was my “safe” stolen base alternative to Elly, with what I considered to be a high batting average floor.
While it may be true that he has a higher average than Elly, that’s pretty much all he’s had to offer fantasy managers this year, and it’s not enough to offset the fact that he’s:
- Hitting for a significantly worse average than he did last year; and
- Stealing far fewer bases.
Unfortunately, I think that second part is going to stick, as his sprint speed has significantly decreased over the past two seasons—from 29.1 feet per second in 2022 to 27.8 this year. This makes me think it’s a conscious (and well-informed) choice by either himself or the Cubs to limit his aggressiveness on the basepaths.
As it stands now, he’s simply a bench bat in standard 12-team leagues, and boy does that bum me out.
Undervalued – Bryson Stott – 2B Rank #3, Preseason 2B Rank #11
In my preseason rankings, I threw Bryson Stott in a tier with a few other names based on my vibe that all of them were going to be similar producers—guys like Ha-Seong Kim, Thairo Estrada, and the like.
While I expected there would be outliers when it came to actual results, I did not have “Bryson Stott developing some of the best plate discipline skills in the league” on my bingo card.
Comparing this year and and last, Stott’s walk rate jumped from 6.1% to 14.7% (absurd!), and his chase rate dropped from 29.5% to 24.2%, driving what would be a career high .393 OBP.
I don’t necessarily think this newly unlocked plate discipline is sustainable at it’s current rates, but even if he retains half of the gains he’s made he has a fair shot at going 20/40.
Other Interesting Names
Undervalued – Jeremy Peña – SS Rank #5, Preseason SS Rank #20
Undervalued – Brice Turang – 2B Rank #7, Preseason 2B Rank #Unranked
Overvalued – Gleyber Torres – 2B Unranked, Preseason 2B Rank #5
Overvalued – Bo Bichette – SS Unranked, Preseason SS rank #3
Anyone else I should have covered? Drop some names in the comments and lemme know how I can help you out some more!
Photo Credit: @hao$
