Hey everybody, welcome back to another edition of Up-and-Coming Dynasty Players.
The player I want to focus on this week is not the prototypical player that I highlight. That is because Michael Toglia of the Colorado Rockies is basically a one-tool player.
But that tool – his power – is pretty solid. And when you are looking to add players with upside to your team at this point of the season, you are not going to find too many multi-tool players sitting on the free agent wire or even the trade block unless a team is trading a star for a big haul of prospects/young players.
That is not the case with Toglia. Right now he is owned in only 27% of Yahoo leagues and 9% of ESPN leagues. I think the time is right to jump on Toglia and enjoy the power he is going to add to your team.
Let’s look into Toglia a bit more to see why I consider him an Up-and-Coming Dynasty Player.
The Statistics
| MONTH | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar./April | 7 | 4 | 8 | 0 | .106 | .143 | .362 |
| June | 12 | 5 | 16 | 3 | .238 | .292 | .488 |
| July | 11 | 7 | 13 | 1 | .246 | .329 | .594 |
| SEASON | 30 | 16 | 37 | 4 | .209 | .272 | .495 |
Adding Michael Toglia is not the obvious move right now, unlike adding the red-hot Lawrence Butler of Oakland. Speaking of Butler, you may be wondering why I am talking more about him.
Time to take a quick detour here and explain why I’m not fully onboard with Butler. He made his debut last August with the A’s and slashed .2374/.262/.373 that month. In the four subsequent months before July, his best batting average, OBP, and SLG in any of those months came in April of this season when he slashed .195/.303/.325 with two homers, five RBI, and two steals.
But this month he has suddenly turned into a Hall of Famer, slugging .412/.467/.956 with nine homers, 26 RBI, and three steals. Those are phenomenal numbers, to be sure. But they have also come out of nowhere.
After four straight months of dreadful results, I am not going to fully be on board with a player with three good weeks of baseball under his belt. Butler has talent, I’m not going to deny that. But I’m not ready to buy into what he is selling.
Back to Michael Toglia now.
A Little History Lesson
The Rockies have liked Toglia since he was in high school at Gig Harbor in Washington. The team selected Toglia in the 35th round of the 2016 draft. However, Toglia decided to head to UCLA to improve his draft stock.
Smart move on his part.
In three seasons with the Bruins, Michael Toglia slashed .308/.410/.573 with 36 home runs and 156 RBI in 178 games. In his final season at UCLA he slashed .314/.392/.624 with 17 home runs and 65 RBI in 63 games. Given a chance to draft Toglia again, the Rockies did by selecting him with the 23rd overall pick in 2019.
After not playing in 2020 due to Covid shutting the minor leagues down, Toglia reached Double-A in 2021 and hit a home run in the 2021 Futures Game.
The Tools
If you expect Michael Toglia to hit for average, you are going to be disappointed. Toglia entered Friday hitting .209 and for his career he is a .196 hitter. Toglia actually has a good understanding of the strike zone, however. In college, he had a 14.3% walk rate and in the minors, that number was 13.2%. In his career with the Rockies, however, the walks have not come as easily as his rate is at 7.4%
And if you are concerned about strikeouts, then Toglia is probably not very high on your list. During his time in Colorado, his strikeout rate is 33.1%, way above the MLB average of 22.5%. His strikeout rate at UCLA was 22.5% and in the minors, it was 27.1%. So strikeouts have always been a part of his game.
But Toglia is not going to be a .209 hitter for his career. Since June 1, Toglia is slashing .242/.310/.537 with 23 runs scored, 12 home runs, and 29 RBI in 42 games. His strikeout percentage is still high at 28.6%, but that is lower than his overall season and career numbers. Meanwhile, his walk percentage is 9.5% during this stretch.
Michael Toglia is in the majors because he can hit the ball hard and far. So far this season his home run percentage is 7.4%, while the MLB average is 3.0%. For his career, it is 4.5%. Look at the graphic above and you see a lot of red where the power numbers are.
His xSLG, AEV, Barrel%, and Hard-Hit% are way above average.
And his past numbers show that he hasn’t just tapped into an unknown power source. His AEV was 90.2 mph last season, above the MLB average of 88.3 mph. And his career Hard-Hit% is 47.4% (MLB average is 39%).
As Toglia has seen more and more MLB pitching, his power numbers (as well as his slash line) have improved. In 31 games in 2022, his HR% was 1.7%. In 45 games last year, it jumped to 2.6% and now it sits at 7.4%. Will he continue to hit home runs at a 7.4% clip? No. But there is no doubting his power.
Speed? Not much to see here. It’s not as if Toglia is a lumbering player. He is athletic enough to play right field for the Rockies in addition to playing at first base. But stealing bases is not something you should count on from the switch-hitter.
The Future
Obviously I like Michael Toglia’s future. And if you are resigned with the fact that he is not going to help your team batting average or even its OBP, then you should like his future as well. Toglia has the ability to be a consistent 30-homer player, no matter what part he plays in.
Playing in Coors Field has not been a huge advantage for Toglia. In 67 career games at home, he is slashing .221/.290/.401 with eight homers and 28 RBI. Away from Coors Field, he is slashing .173/.225/.398 with 14 homers and 30 RBI.
This season the splits are about the same. In 29 home games, Toglia has six home runs and 17 RBI while slashing .228/.295/.465. In 28 road games his production is a .190/.248/.526 slash line with 10 homers and 20 RBI. So Coors Field certainly helps with is average and OBP, but his SLG is basically the same at home or on the road during his career and is much better on the road this season.
If you need power or just want to add more to your team, then Toglia is a player you should try to have on your team.
