MLB Fantasy Points Leagues – Targeting Teams And Deep Streams

Good morning all! Hope you had some fun over the weekend watching a bunch of football and of course baseball. Not to mention winning your semi-final matchup (I hope)! For this week’s edition of the fantasy points article, I’ll be looking at which teams you should and shouldn’t be targeting for starting pitcher streams as we head into the championship stretch. Additionally, I’ll quickly pinpoint a few hitters and pitchers that are likely on your waivers to keep an eye on for this coming week.

If we take a look at the last 15 days of team batting stats there are some usual suspects but also a couple teams that are a bit of a surprise and you might not expect to be in the top 10. Below I’ve put together a table with teams that make the top 10 in both 15-day AVG and OPS:

Something I don’t need to say but I will: Do NOT play your pitchers vs the D-Backs this week. I don’t really care who it is, it’s not worth the risk of them getting shelled by an almost .300 avg and .865 OPS. I put my money where my mouth is this past Friday and sat Freddy Peralta on my bench vs. them rather than getting the start. He actually ended up reasonably unscathed at 5 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 4 BB, 5 Ks but it wasn’t worth the risk in the final few days of a tough semi-final matchup. They’re just hot right now, period. Avoid at all costs.

Most of the rest of the above list speaks for itself. You’re not surprised to see the Astros, Dodgers, Padres, Phillies, etc up there. A couple teams I think are a bit of a surprise though are Seattle and the Cubs. I don’t know about you but I’ve been streaming against both with no concerns for much of this season. The Mariners were striking out at the highest clip in the league at 27.1% on the year and the Cubs’ offense simply looked anemic for much of the season with players like Dansby Swanson in prolonged slumps. Could they turn it on and get a few hits occasionally? Sure. But was I afraid of them generally? Not at all. However, as we see above both teams are heating up down the stretch. 

The Mariners over the past two weeks are suddenly only striking out at a 17.5% rate in addition to being top 10 in AVG and OPS, making for a lethal combination vs. all but the most elite SPs. Additionally, their BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) is good for second best in the league over the same span at .329. So, not only are they hitting for great AVG, reaching base at a high rate, and slugging 4th best in the majors, but they’re also getting lots of base hits—generally a recipe for disaster for streaming against when you’re getting hit not only hard but often. Now typically, a high BABIP indicates unsustainable overperformance but in this case as we’re talking about streaming for just this week do you really want to stream your pitchers into a team that is overperforming at the moment?  Even if that overperformance may (see: should) level out in the future it doesn’t help us right now. Best to avoid.

We can also say that the Cubs are either finally getting it together late here or are similarly overperforming at the moment. It’s somewhat unclear what the real truth is here but regardless, top 10 over the past weeks in AVG and OPS puts this club in clear no-stream territory for me until further notice. 

Who should you be targeting then? Let’s look at the five teams who are both bottom 10 in AVG and OPS over the past 15 days:

The Rockies and Angels aren’t much of a surprise (more of a surprise perhaps is that Miami has avoided being on this list but I digress…) and the Royals have been slumping. The bigger surprise for many I’d wager is how bad St. Louis has been and also to see the Yankees on this ignominious short-list. 

The cardiac Cards have been terrible recently. Dead last in the league in both team AVG and OPS. On the bright side for them not that it’s going to get them into the playoffs this year but they’re also owners of the league’s worst BABIP at .242. Now as far as BABIP goes the mean is generally .300ish, if you’re very far below that there’s usually high optimism that numbers will improve. Sometimes this can happen quickly in the case of a team going on a heater or sometimes it takes a bit for them to creep back up to where their numbers really should be over a time span of weeks or months. They’re also striking out at the lowest rate in the league over their past three games at a 14.2% clip. Point being: There is some risk baked into streaming against them. They could suddenly turn it on and get the offense going at any moment. That’s certainly a possibility. That being said, I think it would be foolish to ignore how bad they’ve been and it’s not like they’ve been a top offense on the season either. They’re generally middle of the pack or slightly worse in most offensive statistics through the entirety of the 2024 season. Therefore, I’ll say with confidence that you should stream vs. the Cardinals this week when any decent opportunity arises. 

The Yankees are also a good target to keep in mind. The long ball is always a potential threat with them of course, but they’re currently dead last in slugging over the past two weeks and 24th in OPS. So recently their number of hard hit balls is actually way down while their AVG and OBP are both only slightly depressed recently compared to their season averages. So maybe the long ball isn’t that much of a threat right now? I think the bottom line here is if you have a pitcher you’re confident in you should be playing them into the Yankees right now. I wouldn’t go too far out of my way and pick up a bottom of the barrel streaming pitcher just to stream against them but a start like Bryce Miller’s on Wednesday (or just any Seattle pitcher vs. them for the three game series this week) could prove to be a juicy start.

This article has gotten a bit long so just quickly I want to highlight a couple of hitters to pick up or stream this week as well as a couple of SP streaming starts to keep an eye on:

1. Tommy Edman: If he’s still on waivers in your league please do yourself a favor and pick him up if you have the room. Not as a streamer but as a coveted member of your lineup. His rostership has been skyrocketing lately so make the move now before your opponent does. He generally has some combo of SS, 2B, and OF eligibility so he has tons of utility and is currently playing daily and hitting around the middle of the Dodgers’ lineup, which is, Teoscar Hernandez, Will Smith, Edman, Max Muncy. He also has five dingers over his past five games. I mean what more do you want?
2. Jose Tena: This is a deeper dive pick. However, with Francisco Lindor tending to a back injury and remaining day to day (he’s supposedly having an MRI done today to assess the injury) I know some of you out there are desperately running to the waiver wire for SS eligible players. If Tommy Edman was either swiped up in your league already or doesn’t have SS eligibility in your format I think Tena is a great option if you’re in need and is almost certainly available unless you’re in a league with me. Through 115 ABs since being called up to the Nats he’s hitting to the tune of a .304/.339/.426 slash line. He won’t wow you with lots of homers but he does have some power, offers the added benefit of decent speed and the occasional SB, and looks to be an extremely consistent hitter in the vein of Xavier Edwards of the Marlins (216 AB – .324/.395/.398) but far less rostered than Edwards.
3. Two deep SP streams that I’m very high on this week are Bailey Falter vs. Saint Louis on Tuesday and Joey Estes vs. the Yankees on Sunday. I’m going to again put my money where my mouth is on these two picks and chase starts vs. two of the bottom five teams we discussed above. There’s definitely some risk with these starts but also tremendous upside in the form of elevated Ks and low-risk of ERs (more so for Estes vs. NYY on the strikeout front). Additionally, I have high confidence that both pitchers go fairly deep into these games so you’ll get your money’s worth in IPs as well. 

Bonus stream: This is a bonus desperation stream if you’re falling behind or just need the starts. Martin Perez (~10% rostered on ESPN) vs. the White Sox on Saturday could be a decent one. I’m not expecting super high upside with Perez as he’s not really a strikeout guy but there’s certainly a solid floor to be had with his generally minimal walks given and runs allowed.