It would be unfair to the New York Mets to reduce their regular season to its triumphant climax, an epic, whiplash-inducing, decisive two-run homer by a hobbled Francisco Lindor during a de-facto postseason game necessitated by a hurricane. The Mets clinched a postseason berth and a trip back to Milwaukee for a Wild Card date with the NL Central champion Brewers.
These organizations share some history and DNA that makes for heightened intrigue, and in one case quite literally. Recall that these teams played each other a couple of days ago as the Mets fought for their playoff lives. They also squared off on Opening Day and nearly came to blows as (currently injured) Mets second baseman Jeff McNeil took exception to a Rhys Hoskins slide. Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns was once a young upstart Brewers GM and (later) POBO who was hired away in a very telegraphed, long-rumored move at the end of last season. Each team has a Megill brother (Tylor or Trevor) on its pitching staff.
Aside from these features, the teams are quite different. Monday was not the first time the Mets had stared down the potential death of their season. They were comfortably under .500 for most of the first half of the year and hit their nadir in early-June when they were 11 games under and sporting playoff odds below 10%. From the start of the season through the end of August, New York’s playoff odds were above 50% for only six days in total. A September surge coupled with the Diamondbacks’ collapse allowed the Mets to eek into the tournament, and now a team that began the 2023 season with the biggest payroll in baseball by a sizeable margin enters the 2024 playoffs as a plucky underdog that has developed a battle-tested edge during the last two months of play.
The Brewers, on the other hand, have been coasting since June. They were the first team in the league to clinch a playoff spot, and they tout the third-best run differential (+136) in all of baseball, behind only the Dodgers and Yankees. Almost exactly a year ago, it was announced that front-end starter Brandon Woodruff would require shoulder surgery. His loss and the pre-season trade of Corbin Burnes made the NL Central feel like it was up for grabs. Instead, Milwaukee’s young core of hitters carried it to a cozy division title despite a season-ending injury to All-Star outfielder Christian Yelich.
At an average age of 26.4 years old, the Brewers position player group was the second youngest in the National League, behind only the rebuilding Washington Nationals. The Brewers ranked fourth in the league in position player WAR this year despite comfortably having the lowest slugging percentage among the other clubs in the top 10. While Milwaukee has a few dangerous power hitters (most notably catcher William Contreras, shortstop Willy Adames, and tooled-up prodigy Jackson Chourio), the group has largely succeeded via secondary skills like speed, defense, and plate discipline. The Brewers were second in baseball in team walk rate, second in team stolen bases (second baseman Brice Turang led Milwaukee with 50 bags), first in Base Runs (by a lot), and third in defensive Outs Above Average. The Brewers have three shortstop-quality defenders manning their non-first base infield positions and arguably boast the best all-around defense of any playoff team.
The Mets, on the other hand, succeed with power. Though not exceptional or dominant (they did barely sneak into the playoffs, after all) they ranked in the league-wide top 10 of most measures of power talent and production (SLG, ISO, HardHit%, and Barrel%). Lindor had an MVP-caliber season, young corner infielder Mark Vientos hit 27 home runs in just 110 games, Pete Alonso notched yet another 30-homer season, Brandon Nimmo smacked 22 dingers, and despite middling homer totals on the season, both Francisco Alvarez and J.D. Martinez are powerful, dangerous hitters.
And then there’s 34-year-old second baseman (and pop star) Jose Iglesias, who is entering the postseason on an epic heater. He had a hit in each of Monday’s games against Atlanta and is riding a 22-game hitting streak. He slashed .341/.387/.456 this season, having played pretty regularly since June. McNeil’s broken wrist put more pressure on Iglesias to perform down the stretch, and he has delivered well above what anyone could’ve expected.
Game 1’s pitching matchup features Brewers “ace” Freddy Peralta against Mets righty Luis Severino, who was a shrewd and effective reclamation pickup by the Mets during the offseason after their high-profile Scherzer/Verlander staff flopped the year before. The 2024 season was Severino’s first fully healthy one since 2018. Peralta just completed his second straight 30-plus start campaign, and he set a career-high for innings pitched (173 2/3). All four of Peralta’s pitches garnered above-average whiff rates.
Neither team has a particularly strong rotation, and both will likely rely heavily upon their respective bullpen if they’re going to make a deep run into October. The Mets begin the Wild Card round on their back foot in this regard, having just taxed their bullpen across 18 innings in Monday’s doubleheader. Huascar Brazobán and Adam Ottavino pitched in both of Monday’s games. Mets closer Edwin Díaz threw 40 pitches Monday and 26 pitches the day before. All three of them may be unavailable — or at least fatigued — in the first two games of this series.
Contrast that with the Brewers bullpen. Only DL Hall and Hoby Milner pitched on Sunday, giving the rest of Milwaukee’s bullpen at least two days to rest. That includes closer Devin Williams, who has been utterly dominant since his return from multiple stress fractures in his back. Since he was activated just before the trade deadline, Williams has the second-highest K/9 rate (15.78) among relievers, behind only Edwin Díaz, and has posted a 1.25 ERA. He has not allowed a run since August 21. The Mets may be able to counter some of the funky-looking deliveries that the Brewers run out of their bullpen with Jesse Winker, Harrison Bader, or Tyrone Taylor coming off the bench, depending on who starts. But, if only due to the circumstances caused by Hurricane Helene that forced the Mets to cover two games the day before the start of this series, Milwaukee’s bullpen would seem to have a big advantage.
In this series, we have a narrative reversal of the two franchises and markets involved. The Mets — a financial juggernaut that snuck into the playoffs in a year that was supposed to be a “step back” — now feel like they’re playing with house money, while the Brewers, who performed during the regular season like one of the sport’s best teams, check many of the boxes of a typical postseason contender, especially the defense and bullpen ones. The winner will earn the right to tango with the Phillies.
