If you consider yourself a knowledgeable dynasty league player, then you should not be asking yourself “Who is this Nolan Gorman dude of the St. Louis Cardinals?”
But if you are a newer dynasty baseball player, then you may be wondering about Gorman as he has slugged his way into the consciousness of many baseball fans.
A left-handed hitter, Gorman entered the Top 100 prospects lists of Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, and Baseball Prospectus in 2019. By the start of the 2022 season, he was ranked 34th by BA, 33rd by MLB, and 28th by BP
Gorman broke in with Cardinals in 2022, appearing in 89 games for the Redbirds, and was a regular in the team’s lineup last season as he played in 119 games. The second baseman is now in his third season with the Cardinals, so why do I consider him an up-and-coming dynasty player?
Let’s find out.
| YEAR | G | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 89 | 44 | 14 | 35 | 1 | .226 | .300 | .420 |
| 2023 | 119 | 59 | 27 | 76 | 7 | .236 | .328 | .478 |
| 2024 | 55 | 29 | 14 | 31 | 2 | .230 | .316 | .492 |
| Last 7 Days | 7 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 0 | .296 | .367 | .741 |
| Last 14 Days | 12 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 1 | .304 | .360 | .717 |
| Last 28 Days | 21 | 21 | 10 | 19 | 2 | .320 | .407 | .760 |
If you look at the stats above, you will likely see where Gorman’s strength as a baseball player is – and that is his power. Entering the 2018 draft, Gorman was known for his power and the Cardinals selected him with the 21st overall pick.
Nolan Gorman quickly signed with the Cardinals and wasted little time showcasing that power. In 63 games at Rookie and Class A, Gorman smashed 17 homers and he has been sending baseballs over the fence ever since.
The Tools
Nolan Gorman is not going to chase a Triple Crown title anytime soon. He hit .226 during his rookie season, increased that to .236 last season, and entered Friday hitting .230. And the advanced metrics won’t leave you thinking he is hitting into bad luck. His xBA ranks in the 38th percentile this season and was in the 25th percentile last year.
Gorman will struggle to become a consistent .250 hitter or better if he doesn’t curtail his propensity to strike out. Over the last three seasons, his K% has been 32.9, 31.9, and 34.4%. Overall, his career strikeout rate is 32.8% compared to the MLB average of 22.5%. And his Whiff% has not been any better, coming in at 34.5, 35.5 and 38.4%. The mark this season ranks in the 2nd percentile.
Interestingly, Gorman actually has a good understanding of the strike zone. His career walk rate of 10.6% is 2.2% higher than the MLB average. This season his walk rate stands at 11.2% after coming in at 11.4% last year. If Gorman can just learn to make some more contact, his batting average and OBP will rise to a respectable level. Over the last 28 days, he has done more than just be respectable at the plate, hitting .320 with a .407 OBP. But his strikeout rate has still been north of 30% during this hot streak.
Past history says he will cool off. But it shows he has the ability to hit for average.
As I mentioned above, Nolan Gorman’s best tool is his power – just ask Justin Verlander after this pitch or Kyle Nelson after this blast. This is why you want him on your team, especially if you can live with a low batting average.
The MLB average home run rate is 3%. Through Friday, Gorman has a 5.5% home rate, and it has increased each season he has been in the majors. As a rookie it was a nice 4.5%. That increased to 5.8% last year and it currently sits at 6.5%.
Obviously, thanks to the home runs, Gorman produces an outstanding slugging percentage. He slugged .420 his rookie year then increased it to .478 last year and now it is at .492. While Gorman has seen a dip in his Average EV and Hard Hit% compared to last year, we just entered June, leaving Gorman with plenty of time to increase those percentages.
There really isn’t much to talk about when it comes to Gorman and speed. He basically doesn’t have any. His sprint speed percentile is at 23% this year and was 29% last year. He did steal seven bases last year and already has two this season, but that means he is on pace for six steals!
If you are in need of speed and only speed, Gorman is not your man.
The Verdict
Over the last week, Nolan Gorman has seen his rostered percentage increase by 15% in both Yahoo and ESPN leagues. That is not surprising considering the tear he has been on.
But what is surprising is the fact that one week ago he was rostered in only 13 percent of ESPN leagues. That is simply ridiculous. Everyone wants to have as many three-tool (average, power, steals) players on their roster as possible. I get that.
But that is not possible and overlooking Gorman is just wrong. He reached 27 home runs last year in only 119 games. If he can stay on the field for 150 games, Gorman can easily reach 35 homers. Who doesn’t want a player with that kind of power potential on their team?
And that power comes from the second base position.
The average second baseman in the majors has hit 3 homers and driven in 12 runs with a slash line of .245/.309/.366. Gorman is sitting at 14 homers and 31 RBI with a .230/.316/.492 slash line. Among second basemen, he leads the majors in homers, is second in SLG and OPS, and ranks sixth in RBI. There is no reason to think those power numbers are going to suddenly disappear this year or in the future.
