Potential October Difference Makers: National League

With the playoff fields in both leagues nearly set, we here at FanGraphs are turning our focus to how teams set up for October. Jay Jaffe has been covering the best players at each position among the contenders, as well as the worst. Dan Szymborski looked into the particulars of playoff lineup construction. Inspired by Meg Rowley, I’m taking a different tack: I’m looking for the players, strategies, and matchups that could be the difference between success and failure for each team.

We already know who the best players in baseball are, and they will of course be hugely important in the postseason. But less heralded players frequently have a lot to say about who takes home the World Series trophy. Think Steve Pearce and David Freese lengthening their respective lineups to turn those offenses from good to great, or the Braves bullpen mowing down the opposition in 2021. (On the flip side, you don’t hear a lot about teams let down by their supporting casts, because they mostly lose early on.) The best players aren’t always the most pivotal. In that spirit, I went through each team and focused on one potential pivot point. I looked at the American League yesterday; today, the National League gets its turn.

Los Angeles Dodgers: Righty Bats vs. Righty Relievers

The Dodgers have been such a playoff fixture for the last decade that it’s easy for their teams to blend together. A Chris Taylor here, a Max Muncy there, sprinkle in a heaping helping of Clayton Kershaw’s concerned face, and pretty soon you’ve got a Dodgers stew going. As such, it’s easy to think of all of these teams as roughly the same. They’re the Dodgers! They have some star hitters and a perpetually stressed pitching staff. They mix and match the bottom half of the order with platoon bats and finish the game with six lineup spots having turned over.

This year, that stereotype doesn’t hold. The Dodgers have gotten away from their all-platooning ways, particularly as the year wears on. Eight spots in their starting lineup are consistent regardless of opponent handedness. I don’t think it’s a philosophical change or anything; things just lined up this way. Muncy and Tommy Edman are good enough that the team doesn’t see much benefit in swapping them out against their respective weak points (lefties for Muncy, righties for Edman). Miguel Rojas looks like an obvious platoon candidate, only there’s no lefty bat on the bench that makes for an easy swap.

Gavin Lux and Kevin Kiermaier are the only lefty rotational players on the team (Muncy, Freddie Freeman and Shohei Ohtani are everyday starters, obviously, assuming everything is ok with Freeman’s ankle). Lux will start against righties, which means that Kiermaier (and Hunter Feduccia, in case of emergency) will be the only lefty bat available to play matchups. He’s just not an impact hitter anymore, though, which means that Dodgers’ righties will be taking big at-bats for themselves, even if it feels like a spot where the team would normally bring in a pinch-hitter.

Edman might be a switch-hitter, but he consistently fares far better when batting right-handed. Opponents will turn him around in big spots and force him to succeed from his worse side. Teoscar Hernández and Will Smith are frequently going to see the opposition’s best right-handed reliever, because the top of the lineup will be reserved for lefty arms with acceptable matchups against Ohtani and Freeman. Even Rojas is probably going to get plenty of platoon-negative at-bats, because the alternative is going to a much weaker defensive setup.

In prior years, the Dodgers built their team around avoiding these matchups. This year, they’re just accepting the small disadvantage and playing their guys against the opponent’s guys straight up. It’s a meaningful change in offensive tactics relative to past years, one made as much out of necessity as preference. How these at-bats go will have a lot to say about how the team does as a whole – unless Ohtani continues to hit like a house on fire and win games on his own.

Philadelphia Phillies: Nick Castellanos

I struggled a bit in picking the most likely Philadelphia difference maker, but only because we’ve seen enough of this team in the last two postseasons to know exactly what they’re about. They have a high-powered offense and a bevy of excellent starters. Their bullpen is full of high-leverage options. Their defense? Underrated only because everything else they’re doing is properly heralded. The Phillies have the best record in baseball, the third-best Pythagorean record, and the second-best BaseRuns record. They’re an excellent team with few obvious flaws.

That said, they could use a postseason breakout from Nick Castellanos, who has been borderline unplayable at points in the past three years, and is also capable of winning a series singlehandedly. His style – free-swinging with big cuts – leads to plenty of strikeouts that feel absolutely uncompetitive. Slider off the plate, fastball at the letters, slider in the dirt, thanks for playing. But because he’s taking more home run swings per at-bat than almost anyone else, sometimes he goes on a home run tear. In the past month alone, he has a 10-game stretch with a 221 wRC+ and one with a 50 wRC+.

The Phillies are frequently good enough to win even when Castellanos isn’t clicking. In the past three years, he has an aggregate 103 wRC+, and yet they’ve been one of the best teams in baseball. But their truly white-hot stretches often coincide with Castellanos’, because he’s just that beneficial to the offense when he’s on a tear. His ability to turn any pitch – whether it’s right down the middle or three inches off the plate – into runs is rare outside of the very best in the game. A good week might turn a single series around. A good month might determine the World Series.

Milwaukee Brewers: Outfield Defense

I’m not sure you understand how good Milwaukee’s outfield has been this year. They’re second in the majors in a number of advanced estimates of defensive value, but that understates things. Christian Yelich played the first chunk of the year in left field, and while he’s clearly a net boost to the team, that boost is on offense; he’s a below-average defender at this point in his career. After his injury, the team has been running out a squad of three center fielders: Jackson Chourio in left, a platoon of Blake Perkins and Garrett Mitchell in center, and Sal Frelick in right.

Each of those four is an elite defender. Thanks to the center field platoon, they can run out the best outfield defense in the playoffs even if one of the non-Chourio options gets pinch-hit for. Line drives in the gap are just worth less against Milwaukee, and that changes the calculus for its pitchers significantly.

This season’s low offensive environment suits the Brewers quite well. When the ball stays in the yard, they’re the team that benefits most. Their top pitchers all have fly ball tendencies, and why not? You’d be more willing to surrender some aerial contact if it means giving this outfield a chance to make some plays.

It’s not so much that Milwaukee’s infield defense is bad. It’s quite solid, in fact: Joey Ortiz and Brice Turang are both excellent. But with the way strikeouts dominate the game these days, extra-base hits are the easiest way to score. And extra-base hits are in the air, which means outfield range is one of the most valuable commodities in the run prevention arms race. If the Brewers can coax a ton of balls in the air out of their opponents without falling victim to a home run parade, they’ll go far.

San Diego Padres: Tanner Scott and Adrian Morejon

The Padres have assembled a tremendous squad despite huge turnover last winter. Trading Juan Soto to pare down on salary obviously hurt, and nearly the entire starting rotation departed. But by turning Soto into Michael King and Dylan Cease (indirectly), and thanks to Jackson Merrill’s emergence, the Padres look as good as they have in years. They even have a deep and versatile bullpen thanks to A.J. Preller’s aggressive moves at the trade deadline.

One key to that bullpen? Its two high-leverage lefty arms. When the Padres and Dodgers faced off this week in a playoff preview, Mike Shildt had a clear plan: tilt his matchups to make sure his team put its best foot forward against Ohtani and Freeman. Tanner Scott is the backup closer, but he’s also a fearsome lefty specialist, and Shildt likes to use him against the opponent’s best lefty. Adrian Morejon is the next guy in the hierarchy, and gives Shildt flexibility to match up against his opponents’ best lefties twice in the same game if necessary. There’s also value to swapping them around to prevent opposing hitters from getting too many looks at them in the same series.

The decision point for the Padres is going to come at the top of the order. The Dodgers and Phillies, the two best teams in the NL, stack two great lefty hitters in their top three batters. The Padres will likely use four righty starters, so Shildt will have to weigh the benefits of getting to use his starter for a full workload against having his best matchups against the other side’s best batters. It’s going to come down to context; if the third time through for Ohtani or Kyle Schwarber comes with the bases juiced and the score close, I think it’ll be reliever time. If it’s lower leverage, the starter will probably stay in.

Either way, these decisions are going to be major inflection points if the Padres make a deep playoff run. Their team setup – all righty starters, great lefty relievers, and a deep bullpen overall – means that the particular question of how to balance starter length, reliever familiarity, and high-leverage platoon matchups will come up in almost every game against the NL’s best.

New York Mets: The First Big Pinch-Hitting Spot Each Game

The Mets have an enviable problem: too many DHs. Even with Mark Vientos playing third base instead of a bat-only position, there’s not enough room for Jesse Winker and J.D. Martinez to hit in the lineup at the same time. Winker can fake right field in a pinch, but the Mets seem happy with Starling Marte and Brandon Nimmo in the outfield corners, which means the only real option is to platoon Winker and Martinez.

That’s annoying, because it means that the team almost never gets to play its nine best position players at the same time. But it comes with a silver lining: They’ll have a starter-level bat to bring in as a pinch-hitter in every game. That could be Martinez blowing up an opposing manager’s lefty specialist in Winker’s spot, or Winker replacing any number of sketchy righties against a platoon-deficient reliever.

The Mets don’t have a particularly flexible lineup overall. Yes, Luisangel Acuña looked great as a short-term Francisco Lindor replacement (assuming no re-aggravation of his injury), but he’s not a scary bat. Harrison Bader, Tyrone Taylor, Eddy Alvarez, Luis Torrens — there isn’t a lot of offensive thump to be had off the bench. For the most part, the team is going to line up its best players and let them win or lose on their own merits.

That could put them at a disadvantage against teams that are able to transform their own teams a bit more, giving players with edges in their specific matchup more playing time. But for one at-bat a game, at whatever time seems most advantageous, New York will get to flip that advantage on its head. Their ability to make the most out of the pinch-hitting ace up their sleeve is going to swing games, and potentially series.

Arizona Diamondbacks: Winning From Behind

No team in baseball has performed better while behind in the count than the Arizona Diamondbacks. That’s partially because they’re a great offense overall – they’ve been the best group in the game since the All-Star break – but it’s also because of their particular skill. They don’t strike out. They put a ton of balls in play – they have the second-lowest whiff rate in baseball – and chase less than almost anyone else.

The playoffs are a high-strikeout affair these days. With the compression of starting pitcher innings and the expansion of power-heavy bullpens, the average pitch in the playoffs is far better than the average pitch in the regular season. But if anyone’s equipped to stay alive despite those tough pitches, it’s this year’s Arizona squad.

If the Snakes are good while behind in the count – relatively good, of course, no one is awesome when playing at a disadvantage – they’ll also be able to tap into the other thing their offense does best: obliterate fastballs in fastball counts. They’re not the most aggressive swingers when they get ahead, but they hunt fastballs and do damage. Only the Mariners have performed better against fastballs when ahead in the count. It’s a combination of selective aggression and power that helps explain why Arizona’s offense has been so good. They’re hard to put away, and they try to do damage when they get ahead.

If the Diamondbacks can keep doing those two things, their lineup is going to be a nightmare. There’s power all over the place. The eight and nine hitters each have strikeout rates below 15%. If the team can turn a bunch of tough counts into seeing-eye singles, they’re going to score runs in bunches. If they can’t, their pitching staff probably won’t be enough to sustain them.

Atlanta Braves: The New Night Shift

The Braves make the Mets look like a paragon of roster depth. They’ve built their team around a stars-and-scrubs approach, and that got pushed even further with season-ending injuries to Ronald Acuña Jr., Spencer Strider, and Austin Riley. Their offseason bet on a Jarred Kelenic breakout didn’t pan out. Their lineup is an odd mix of castoffs and stars, with Gio Urshela and Ramón Laureano playing every day alongside the old standbys of Ozzie Albies, Matt Olson, and Marcell Ozuna. To their credit, the fill-ins have performed well so far, but realistically, this team isn’t an offensive juggernaut.

Atlanta’s strength lies at the top of its rotation. Chris Sale is the obvious NL Cy Young winner. Max Fried isn’t at the peak of his powers, but he’s a great number two option. Reynaldo López has been amazing all year. The more of the Braves’ playoff games that involve one of those three guys starting, the better their odds will be. That’s no knock on Charlie Morton and Spencer Schwellenbach, but with a makeshift offense, every little bit of pitching improvement helps, and getting to cover more innings with Sale is as good as it gets on that front.

To make the equation work, the Braves need to emulate themselves from 2021 and empty the bullpen of its best arms every time they have a lead. En route to their 2021 championship, the Braves used Luke Jackson, Will Smith, Tyler Matzek, and A.J. Minter in nearly every victory. This year’s version would be Raisel Iglesias, Joe Jiménez, Pierce Johnson, and a lefty (either Aaron Bummer or Dylan Lee).

All of these guys have been excellent this year. The whole bullpen has been excellent, in fact, to the tune of an aggregate 3.30 ERA. They’ll have to continue that form. Anything can happen in a month’s worth of baseball games, but Atlanta’s offense simply doesn’t look as good as most of their NL competition. But if Brian Snitker can coax three-ish scoreless innings out of his top relievers in every close game, the equation looks a lot better. Do it right (and make it into the playoffs to begin with, of course), and there might be another World Series ring in his future. Fail, and there might be a lot of shootouts in the team’s future. They don’t look well equipped to win those, to say the least.