The 2024 Futures Game rosters were made public on Tuesday, so I’d like to highlight some key takeaways that might be relevant to people with mid-week transaction set-ups.
For dynasty purposes, the Futures Game has always been an escalator for prospect fantasy values. Most people don’t watch minor league baseball on the regular, so their first time seeing some of these prospects with their own eyes happens during this seven-inning exhibition game.
My takeaway today is that values are going to change more than ever this season due to the new Futures Skills Showcase that will follow the game itself.
Here’s a link to Jonathan Mayo breaking down the showcase in depth, but the Too Long Didn’t Read version of it goes something like this: it’s a video game mode for seven hitters who will accrue points by hitting targets, calling their shots, and blasting home runs.
During the final event, opposite-field home runs and consecutive home runs are heavily incentivized, which is an easy quirk to love. I’m even harboring small hopes of watching the target-practice part with my daughter, who will turn six tomorrow. I’m hoping the field is lit up with multiple colors and numbers to show many points each spot is worth. I’m pretty sure that’s the plan, as that’s what happens in the various video games this event is mimicking.
Most importantly for our purposes, this after-the-game action will provide a newly bright spotlight for the players involved. With three different rounds, we’ll have three different winners and an overall champion. If the glory gets spread around, each player will get a little boost in perceived value. If someone goes nuts and wins all three events, he’ll be all over dynasty trade blocks in the coming weeks and months.
Cubs C Moises Ballesteros (20, AAA) is probably the overall favorite for me. He won’t be playing in the game itself, which I think is kind of an advantage, and he’s got incredible bat control and contact skills. I think he’ll be able to hit the ball where he wants during both the Hit It Here event and the Call Your Shot event. The home run derby feels like more of a crapshoot, but I’ve got a favorite in mind for that event, too.
I’d love to see Rangers SS Sebastian Walcott (18, A+) pop off during the derby. He’s probably more a favorite in preference than in probability, if I’m correctly assessing my biases, but he’s as twitchilly gifted as anyone in the contest and could enhance his profile more than anyone, partly because fewer people will have seen him than some of the older players. His season-long line isn’t great, but he’s gotten better throughout the year and is slashing .303/.361/.514 with a 26.2 percent strikeout rate and 138 wRC+ over his last 28 games. Pretty absurd outcomes for kid with hit tool questions coming into the season and an early season slump that would’ve sent a lot of prospects packing.
I’m always a little more interested in switch-hitters during events like these. Given his experience, level and statistics, Twins 2B Brooks Lee (23, AAA) will probably be the consensus favorite, assuming people will be betting on this thing because of course people will be betting on this thing. He’s certainly got the talent to win all three events. But I dunno. Something about switch-hitters . . . have we ever seen one win a major league home run derby? My Google search said No. How does that correlate to a Call Your Shot event? Let’s find out.
If I’m just letting my brain dispassionately whirr, Red Sox OF Roman Anthony (20, AA) is a clear frontrunner for the home run contest. I think targeting the opposite field bonus points is a trap, but if someone does get hot in that direction, they’ll be tough to catch. I’d love to see someone spend the whole day and night trying to get into an opposite field rhythm. I think Anthony could do it, and so could Termarr.
Pirates 2B Termarr Johnson (20, A+) has had a difficult season. He’s slashing .230/.383/.363 with seven home runs and 13 steals in 73 games. On the one hand, that’s a 119 wRC+, which is pretty good for a guy at his age and level. On the other hand, it’s tough to become a big leaguer by hitting .230 in High-A. The solution is probably more confidence and aggression. Ideally, he finds new locations to attack, rather than just expanding all the edges of his focus. Perhaps an exhibition like this could help him. I mean, there’s no points for taking pitches.
Rays 1B Tre’ Morgan (21, A+) is living his best life this year. A defense-first third-round pick in 2023 out of LSU, Morgan has made some tweaks and is smashing through the system with a .365/.452/.563 slash line through 25 games in High-A. I think the SEC can get pretty close to Double-A on a given night and wouldn’t be surprised if Tampa sends him there after the break.
Nationals 3B Brady House (21, AA) started the season hot but has faded and is slashing .232/.312/.426 through 72 games. He does have 13 home runs, and if he plays well on the big stage, I might suggest seeing what the trade block could return, especially if you’re a contender.
Reds 3B Cam Collier (19, A+) had a hot start too and has faded like House in the hotter weather. He’s at .232/.310/..419 with 13 home runs in 71 games. Also a pretty clear trade chip if he drums up some attention that night. Not because I don’t like the player but because you never know what the shiny prospect can get at a given moment.
You can catch the Futures Game along with the Hit It Here, Call Your Shot, and Home Run Derby on July 13.
Thanks for reading!
