It’s the run up to the 4th of July! These summer holidays are great ways to gauge your team. Pre-Memorial Day is when your veterans play. 4th of July is when you start rostering hot players on bad teams in hopes of a trade. Do we have a holiday in August? I suppose back to school is a holiday. When the kids are back in class, that’s when the cups of coffee propel your team to playoff victory. I’m not Nostradamus — I can’t see the July trade deadline moves any better than you can. But what I can do, is give you my weekly three adds and cast some shade on a player. Let’s see if we can help your team!
That’s What I Like
Joc Pederson (ARI, OF, 72% Rostered): When’s the last time you really, actually wanted to roster Joc? Probably during that Atlanta World Series run, right? JP is the posterboy for “Quad A but for fantasy,” where he’s always your last OF or the first guy off the waivers. Foremost: when it comes to lefty pitching, managers don’t let him near that shizz. Just like I’m not allowed near the markers during Pictionary because my hideous art skills will undoubtedly tarnish people’s otherwise glowing opinion of me, Joc Pederson isn’t allowed near lefties. I mean, I too would also like to make $10 million a year and be comepletely inept against 25% of pitchers. And this year he doesn’t even have to play the field, not because he’s in a long term relationship or anything, but because the NL has the DH and Joc apparently won’t play a position for less than $15 million a year. I dunno what kind of SABRmetrics are at play in real life, but we’re here to help your fantasy team. Maybe you’re in a 12-teamer and you’re waiting on the Cedric Mullins train to get rolling, or you’re looking for an OF/UTIL that could give you some pop. Joc’s out there in 25% of leagues for free, putting up 4 dingers and 18 RBI over the past month while also notching a .286 average. This is pretty par for the course for JP — hot streaks that make news and make you think he’s in it for the long haul. Inevitably he’ll cool down and finish the year somewhere in the 50 Runs / 65ish RBI range. But who knows, maybe this is the year — he’s got the highest wRC+ in his career, and it’s not like batting around Christian Walker and Ketel Marte is a bad thing. Oh yeah, I suppose Corbin Carroll is still there. Speculative add Joc in 12-teamers as your bench filler and start if you’ve got a weak roster.
Carlos Santana (MIN, 1B, 17% Rostered): The Twins are becoming known for finding boomer hitters and then reshaping their pre-retirement years into something meaningful. Who’s old enough to remember Jim Thome? Then Nelson Cruz — he might even be on a few of your dynasty teams still. And now Carlos Santana is coming in to breathe the fresh air, scented with real Canadian wildfire smoke. Over his last 50 AB, Santana put up a .375 average with a .700 SLG, notching 3 dingers and 4 doubles and even a steal along the way. Sounds like points league magic! And the guy is free in basically every league, which is all the more magical. Unlike Joc Pederson, managers tend to trust Santana in more situations, although he’s known in recent times for destroying your team’s average. From 2020-2023, Santana put up 2000+ plate appearances and rewarded managers with a .217 average. Don’t act like the last 50 AB are the second coming of Nelson Cruz. But a hot streak is a hot steak — mmm, hot steak — and it’s not like Rhys Hoskins or Anthony Rizzo are doing much for you. Add Santana is 1B11 on the year — that’s very satisfying to write — so if you’re that 12th team that can’t find a first baseman, add Santana to your team and see if any of the magic continues into July.
Miles Mikolas (STL, SP, 51% Rostered): The trouble with being a fantasy sports writer is that, at some point, you’ll need to recommend a player that you’ve always faded. Mikolas is not a stellar fantasy pitcher — he K’s batters at a rate that was unimpressive even in the 1970s, he’s got a surprisingly low ground ball rate, and despite racking up innings for a playoff caliber team over the past years, he still has a losing record when adding up the 2019-2024 seasons (38-49). That said, fantasy pitchers two things to succeed: 1) a high K/9, 2) a ton of innings pitched. Mikloas is in that second category. He’s in the top 25 in MLB IP at the time of writing, and a single 5IP start would put him 9th overall. People are turned off by his ERA, which sits a 4.68 at the time of writing, but his advanced run stats are all sub 4.05, which means he’s getting unlucky. That “unlucky” aspect is amplified by the lack of strikeouts. Points league players have every reason in the world to add an IP maven like Mikolas, and head-to-head managers could also make a case for Mikolas’ potential for Wins over the rest of the season. That said, he comes with negative strikeout value, so you’ll need some K coverage if you decide to roll with Mikolas through July.
I’m the Problem – It’s Me
Keibert Ruiz (WSH, C, 95% Rostered): The problem with catchers for fantasy is that Grey never made an acronym for them. CAGNOF? Or how about “There are a whole bunch of catchers in the league and you can roster any of them and yes almost all of them suck but some of them suck less than others and you should roster the least suckiest catcher.” Can we make that an acronym? Ruiz had a nice 2023 — 18 dingers, .260 batting average — and even showed some speed with 6 steals in 2022. But this is 2024 and you’re trying to win a league 3 months from now, not 2 years ago. Ruiz is batting .201 on the season with a 2.4% barrel rate and a 26.5% hard hit rate. He’s been getting a bit unlucky, sure, but we’re talking the worst advanced stats of his young career on an already unimpressive stat sheet. Believe it or not, Keibert Ruiz (C35 on the year) and David Fry (C5 on the year) have the same rostership rate. Do we love losing? Maybe David Fry is finally gone in your league — what should you do? Elias Diaz (C12) is available in 15% of leagues, and Jose Trevino (C16) is available in 70% of leagues. Catcher is almost always a “least worst’ scenario. But you don’t have to stick with the worst poison just because you drafted it. If you’re holding on to Ruiz, it’s time to move on and get a replacement that isn’t destroying 5 categories of production for your team.
