The 2024 Replacement-Level Killers: Designated Hitter

At last we reach the end of my annual series spotlighting the weakest positions on contenders. While still focusing upon teams that meet that loose definition of contenders (Playoff Odds of at least 9.5%), I have also incorporated our Depth Charts’ rest-of-season WAR projections into the equation for an additional perspective. Sometimes that may suggest that the team will clear the bar by a significant margin, but even so, I’ve included them here because the team’s performance at that spot is worth a look.

At the other positions in this series, I have used about 0.6 WAR or less thus far — which prorates to 1.0 WAR over a full season — as my cutoff, but for the designated hitters, I’ve limited the list to the teams below zero, both to keep the length manageable and to account for the general spread of value. In the third full season of the universal DH, exactly half the teams in the majors have actually gotten 0.0 WAR or less from their DHs thus far, four are in the middle ground between 0.0 and 1.0, eight are between 1.0 and 2.0, and three are above 2.0. DHs as a group have hit .245/.321/.421 for a 109 wRC+; that last figure is up three points from last year, and seven points from the last time I did this list, via a slash line that’s virtually identical (the majors’ slugging percentage as a whole has dropped 17 points from last season).

This year, we’re seeing a greater number of teams invest more playing time in a single DH. Whereas each of the past two seasons saw three players reach the 500 plate appearance threshold as DHs, this year we’re on pace for five; similarly, 11 player are on pace to reach 400 PA as DHs, compared to eight last year. That said, many of the teams on this list are the ones that haven’t found that special someone to take the lion’s share of the plate appearances.

Rangers

At the outset of the season, the defending champions’ lineup featured two of the top 12 prospects from our Top 100 list, with 12th-ranked Evan Carter — who did stellar work late last year for the Rangers — in left field, and second-ranked Wyatt Langford at DH. The latter, who was chosen as the fourth pick in last year’s draft, has the speed for center field but “his feel for the position (and for playing outfield defense in general) is very poor,” wrote Eric Longenhagen in his evaluation. The apparent plan was for Langford to DH against righties and play left field (where he had 28 games of experience last year) against lefties while the lefty-swinging Carter sat, with a rotating cast of players filling the DH slot.

It hasn’t gone great, to say the least. Carter has struggled and has been on the injured list since late May due to a stress reaction in his lower back, while Langford — who himself missed three weeks in May with a hamstring strain — has played 49 games in left field (with 4 DRS!) and just 23 at DH. He’s hit just .254/.318/.384 (94 wRC+) overall, producing an 83 wRC+ in 97 plate appearances as a DH. His quality of contact is middling, and he’s struggled against sliders, though his plate discipline has been very good; his woes mainly look like the growing pains of a 22-year-old rookie. Adolis García, whose poor play overall this season landed him on the right field Killers list, has managed just a 58 wRC+ in 65 PA as a DH, with lefty Travis Jankowski (61 PA, 8 wRC+), and switch-hitter Robbie Grossman (55 PA, 80 wRC+) the other players with double-digit appearances — and little success — in the role. With the Rangers (46-50) at best on the fringes of the Wild Card race, a move here is unlikely; the hope is that Carter returns near the end of this month, which could in theory give Langford more time to settle in at DH.

Guardians

For our Positional Power Rankings, we projected Kyle Manzardo to get the plurality of the Guardians’ reps at first base, with Josh Naylor getting far more time at DH than any other Cleveland player. The 23-year-old Manzardo, who missed our Top 100 list, was sent to Triple-A Columbus despite a strong spring, so Naylor has taken just 30 plate appearances here. Instead, José Ramírez leads the team with 97 PA as a DH, though he’s produced just a 39 wRC+ in that role. Manzardo finally got a look when Steven Kwan went down with a hamstring strain in early May, but hit just .207/.241/.329 (60 wRC+) in 87 PA overall (76 as a DH) before being shuttled back to Columbus. Though he had more doubles (10) than singles (7), his overall contact was underwhelming (.316 xSLG), and he struck out 26.9% of the time.

The Guardians made the Killers lists at shortstop, center field, and right field. They can try using prospects to cover at the two up-the-middle positions, but unless they want to plant David Fry in right field or here, or give Manzardo another look, they’ll need outside help to improve. A bopper such as Brent Rooker of the A’s could contribute both in right and at DH.

Red Sox

After playing 88 games last year in left field, albeit with dreadful metrics (some of which may owe to the complexities of the Green Monster), Masataka Yoshida has been limited to a single defensive inning this year. He also missed six weeks due to a left thumb sprain, but when available, he’s hit a meager .260/.326/.370 (95 wRC+), and where he produced a 102 wRC+ in 144 plate appearances against lefties last year, he’s crashed to a 27 wRC+ in 46 PA against them this year. Though he’s trimmed his groundball rate about nine points from last year’s 54.6%, his quality of contact has taken a step back; his 87.4 mph average exit velo, 4.8% barrel rate, and 37.2% hard-hit rate are all a couple of notches below last year’s marks, and his xSLG has dropped from .425 to .358.

While it’s fair to wonder if David Ortiz could come out of retirement and hit the ball harder than Yoshida, things aren’t that simple for the Red Sox, who are paying Yoshida $18 million annually through 2027 and who aren’t exactly awash in productive hitters; as it is, they’ve got a Killer at first base in Dominic Smith while Triston Casas recovers from a fractured rib. Though it would make sense to platoon Yoshida with righty Rob Refsnyder, that leaves right fielder Wilyer Abreu similarly exposed to lefties. The White Sox’s Tommy Pham, a rental, would work as a platoon option who could spot in the outfield when the team wishes to rotate other players through the position. A reunion with Justin Turner, who fared much better in Boston than he has in Toronto, also makes some sense, particularly if the Blue Jays are willing to eat some of his remaining salary.

If the Red Sox wanted to get more aggressive, Rooker, who could fill the DH job full-time, would be a significant upgrade, but with three more seasons of club control, he won’t come cheap. Another option would be an attempt to trade Yoshida for the Giants’ Jorge Soler, who’s in the first year of a three-year, $42 million deal and who’s scuffled thus far (102 wRC+, 0.2 WAR) for a team that’s 47-50 with 24.6% Playoff Odds.

Royals

From the start of the season until late June, the Royals gave Nelson Velázquez 151 plate appearances at DH and another 79 at the outfield corners, but he hit just .200/.274/.366 (76 wRC+) with -0.3 WAR — the lowest for a DH from any of the 20 teams that made this series’ cut as contenders — before being optioned to Omaha. Since then, the Royals have gone with a mix that includes Michael Massey, Vinnie Pasquantino, and Salvador Perez, the last of whom has played first base when Pasquantino has DHed, the net effect of which has been more reps for Freddy Fermin behind the plate.

It’s worked out quite well so far. Perez (124 wRC+ overall), Fermin (109 wRC+), Massey (105 wRC+), and Pasquantino (99 wRC+) have all been much more productive hitters than Velázquez in general, and the trio has combined for a 137 wRC+ in the DH spot across 73 PA since Velázquez was sent down. It would be helpful if Pasquantino could recover the form that made him such a pleasant surprise as a rookie in 2022. He’s hitting the ball only a bit less hard than he did that year, but is popping up about twice as often; his BABIP is just .252, down from that season’s .306. Given the Royals’ need for a corner outfield bat or two, perhaps they could add some help here, but if not, they’re already in better shape than some of the other teams here just based on their adjustments so far.

Cardinals

The Matt Carpenter revival was a lot of fun when it played Broadway (or actually the Bronx) in 2022, but in his second go-round with the Cardinals, the 38-year-old lefty is hitting just .248/.319/.347 (93 wRC+) in 114 plate appearances and has made a team-high 27 starts at DH, all against righties. Only two other Cardinals have gotten more than 10 starts at the position, lefty Alec Burleson and righty Willson Contreras. Burleson has started 26 times at DH to go with his 55 in the outfield corners and eight at first base, hitting a sizzling .288/.320/.494 (128 wRC+); any time he’s DHing, the team is protected from his poor defense (-6 DRS, -5.7 UZR, -5 FRV in just 376.2 total innings in the outfield). Contreras, who returned from a seven-week absence due to a fractured left forearm on June 24, has hit .271/.403/.514 for a team-high 161 wRC+ overall.

That trio doesn’t really fit together well, though the pending return of Tommy Edman from post-surgical discomfort in his right wrist could put him into an outfield mix with Brendan Donovan, Michael Siani, and Lars Nootbaar, allowing Burleson to park at DH with minimal time afield. It does makes sense to get as much out of Contreras as the Cardinals reasonably can (his catching metrics are fine), but light-hitting backup Pedro Pagés’ 70 wRC+ doesn’t exactly make it an even tradeoff when the starter fills the DH spot. The better hitting backstop, Iván Herrera, and his 107 wRC+ (and wobbly defense) are back at Triple-A, but the Cardinals wouldn’t be the Cardinals if they made it so easy.

Rays

Harold Ramírez set career highs in home runs (12), wRC+ (128), and WAR (1.5) last year while serving as the Rays’ primary DH, with spot duty at the outfield corners, but when he hit just .268/.284/.305 (71 wRC+) in a similar capacity through the first 10 weeks of this season, the Rays designated him for assignment and ate the remainder of his $3.8 million salary. Since then, manager Kevin Cash has rotated other players through the spot; to date seven Rays have received between 20 and 54 plate appearances as a DH, including regulars Randy Arozarena, Yandy Díaz, Brandon Lowe, and Isaac Paredes. The only one to make much impact there is Lowe, whose five homers in the role are more than everybody else (Ramírez included) put together.

Barring a strong start to the second half, the Rays are more likely to be sellers than buyers, and will listen to offers on the aforementioned players with an eye toward getting younger and saving money. They may well have the solution to another team’s problem, here or at several other positions.