The struggling Atlanta Braves made a deadline move on Monday, acquiring DH/OF Jorge Soler and right-handed reliever Luke Jackson from the San Francisco Giants in exchange for left-handed reliever Tyler Matzek and minor league infielder Sabin Ceballos.
Theodor Reik, an Austrian psychoanalyst, is believed to be the original source of what (with slight modification) has become the saying “history doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme.” That’s the case here, as both Soler and Jackson were key contributors on the Braves team that won the World Series in 2021. If we were to set our time machine to travel back a rather unambitious three years in the past, we would see a similar deadline tale. When Soler was acquired by Atlanta back then (from the Royals for minor league reliever Kasey Kalich), the Braves were a struggling team (51-54) that was grappling with the season-ending loss of Ronald Acuña Jr. to a torn ACL. Today, the Braves are a struggling team (56-49, but 37-40 since the end of April) that is grappling with the season-ending loss of Ronald Acuña Jr. to a torn ACL. It would be wrong to say that Soler was the reason the Braves turned their season around in 2021, but his efforts (a .269/.358/.524 line and 14 homers in two months) proved to be a crucial part of that team push. Jackson has had an up-and-down career, but 2021 was his apogee, with a 1.98 ERA and 3.66 FIP for those Braves.
Naturally, Atlanta’s hoping to have a bit of rhyming history here, but it would be a mistake to call this trade ill-conceived nostalgia. Soler’s seasonal line (.240/.330/.419 with 12 home runs, good for 0.8 WAR) doesn’t exactly pop off the page, but you have to remember that the major league offensive environment is very pitcher-friendly these days and Oracle Park isn’t exactly a great place for a slugger to hit unless you’re Barry Bonds. Soler’s 115 wRC+ is actually right in line with both his career numbers and the projections entering the season. And even more importantly, with Isaac Paredes already off the market, he has a case for being the best bat realistically available without trading half the farm system.
That bat is just what Atlanta needs given the team’s offensive woes, even if it won’t fix the lineup by itself. Despite their pitching injuries, the Braves have been able to cobble together a pretty passable staff, with a 3.48 ERA since April, though that’s gotten a bit more difficult since Max Fried went down. They haven’t had the same luck offensively, as they rank 27th in runs scored over that timeframe, while their 89 team wRC+ ranks 26th. Atlanta’s outfielders have combined to hit an abysmal .225/.281/.362 this season. Soler will take playing time away from some combination of Eddie Rosario (.548 OPS in Atlanta since being signed earlier this month) and Adam Duvall (.587 OPS). Even taking Soler’s weak defense into account — Marcell Ozuna has an iron grip on the DH spot — he represents a significant improvement over what the Braves have gotten from the corners this year. He’s also signed for another two seasons, having inked a three-year, $42 million deal this past winter.
After posting a 5.40 ERA and 4.50 FIP in 36 relief appearances for San Francisco, Jackson is clearly the lesser acquisition here, likely intended to be depth at the back of the bullpen. Unless Atlanta likes him a lot more than the projections (which see him as basically the last arm out of the ‘pen), he’s likely to be used in lower-leverage situations, similar to how the Giants deployed him in 2023 and 2024. Still, he’s probably more dependable than Matzek in the short-term, and it’s at least worth noting that Jackson is still better than average at missing bats and still fares well in the various public pitch models. If he pitches well, he may find himself in higher-leverage innings, though he’d probably have to pitch quite well for Atlanta to pick up his $7 million 2025 option ($2 million buyout).
Matzek, who has struggled to come back from Tommy John surgery, is unlikely to play a key role for the Giants — or maybe any role at all for that matter. His inclusion is almost certainly for tax purposes, as Atlanta has been hovering just under the second luxury tax threshold. Even if Matzek does get into games before the end of the season, it won’t really alter San Francisco’s fate, and he probably won’t throw enough innings, even in the best-case scenario, for the Giants to pick up his $5.5 million option.
It’s Ceballos who makes the trade interesting for the Giants; he slots in at no. 17 in their system as a 40 FV prospect. The Giants’ best prospects right now mostly consist of pitchers and outfielders, and they’re short of infielders. Ceballos doesn’t hit for the power one might expect given his solid build and he’s had mixed results at High-A Rome this year, but he’s a good contact hitter who gets on base, and ZiPS is optimistic about his defense. Eric Longenhagen agrees, saying in Atlanta’s prospect rundown in June, “Ceballos’ skill set is headlined by his plus defensive actions and his huge arm. A balanced, low-to-the-ground athlete with great footwork, he has a strong, accurate arm from all kinds of odd platforms. His athletic style is more about body control than explosion, and this also applies to Ceballos’ offense, which is driven by plate discipline and a compact swing.”
In his writeup, Eric compared Ceballos to former Giant Matt Duffy. Unbeknownst to Eric, Duffy is actually in the top 20 in Ceballos’ ZiPS comps, with other notable recent players being Cory Spangenberg, Nick Sogard, and Anderson Feliz (Ceballos’ top comp is Kevin Seitzer). He’s hardly a lock to play in the majors beyond a cup of coffee, but the Giants were never going to get a Coby Mayo or Matt Shaw for the privilege of having Soler on a market-value contract.
Soler and Jackson aren’t enough to proclaim the end of Atlanta’s slow slide down the standings, but they do help the team. Hopefully for Braves fans, there’s more help coming before the trade window closes this evening.
