One year after they missed the playoffs in maddening fashion, the Padres are advancing to the National League Division Series after holding on to beat the Braves, 5-4, in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series on Wednesday night at Petco Park.
If Game 1 of this series was a beautiful ballet choreographed by San Diego starter Michael King, with a result that was never in doubt, then Game 2 was a far more uncertain thriller.
Atlanta struck first, when leadoff batter Michael Harris II smoked a first-pitch double down the right field line, advanced to third on a groundout, and scored on a sacrifice fly. Then the Padres came to bat against Braves lefty Max Fried, and things looked like they were about to get out of hand.
San Diego loaded the bases on back-to-back singles by Luis Arraez and Fernando Tatis Jr. and a Jurickson Profar chopper in front of the mound — Fried fielded it but his throw to second was late and everyone was safe — before Fried buckled down. He struck out Manny Machado, got Jackson Merrill to ground into a 3-2 fielder’s choice, and induced a grounder to short by Xander Bogaerts to get out of the inning without allowing a run.
This was when I thought Fried was going to have one of those postseason starts. Escaping a bases-loaded, no-out jam unscathed is one of the most difficult things to do as a pitcher, and dang it, Fried did it in the very first inning against San Diego’s 4-5-6 hitters. The adage is that you’ve got to get to great pitchers before they can settle in, and the Padres almost did that in the first. Additionally, Fried actually looked sharp despite those three baserunners; none of the balls in play left the infield. A great early narrative was brewing in San Diego, with momentum temporarily favoring the Braves.
There was one problem, though. Fried avoided trouble, but he couldn’t avoid the 99.8-mph liner that Tatis ripped off the pitcher’s hip/butt area.
Braves manager Brian Snitker told ESPN’s Buster Olney during the game that the area in which Fried got hit was bothering him, perhaps contributing to the pitcher’s unraveling. The Padres took a different tack in the second inning, when they lulled Fried into a false sense of security by making the first two outs in quick succession before laying the hammer down. Kyle Higashioka homered to tie it, and then all hell broke loose. Fried allowed three straight singles to load the bases before Machado lined a two-run double into the left field corner. Next up was Merrill, who tripled over Harris’ head in straightaway center to plate two more runs. In a 15-pitch span, the Padres went from trailing by one to leading by four.
MERRILL MADNESS!
The rookie comes through with a 2-run triple ? pic.twitter.com/GTdlyCLMbz
— MLB (@MLB) October 3, 2024
This game was far from over, though, especially because Padres starter Joe Musgrove left the game with two outs in the fourth with an injury of his own. Two slower-than-usual curveballs prompted an eagle-eyed Higashioka to visit his pitcher on the mound, followed by the pitching coach, manager, and trainer. Musgrove shook his arm out in obvious discomfort, and the injury update was indeed among the most ominous possible: right elbow tightness.
Turning to any bullpen for 16 outs is far from ideal, but it should be an easier pill to swallow for the Padres, who bolstered their relief corps in late July; just before the trade deadline, they acquired Tanner Scott and Bryan Hoeing from the Marlins and Jason Adam from the Rays. And following King’s seven-inning gem on Tuesday, everyone in San Diego’s bullpen was rested and ready to go. This game wasn’t exactly over, but the Padres certainly had the advantage, especially because Atlanta’s bullpen was running on fumes.
And yet, the Braves relievers were the ones who silenced the Padres, not the other way around. Dylan Lee, Daysbel Hernández, Pierce Johnson, and Joe Jiménez kept Atlanta in the game and set up an exciting finish as San Diego’s bullpen stumbled.
Hoeing replaced the injured Musgrove, got four key outs, and then gave up a 600-foot home run to Jorge Soler. (Please note that my distance estimate is indisputable, as Statcast didn’t register a distance or exit velocity for the ball.)
Jorge Soler hit this baseball to a different universe ? #Postseason pic.twitter.com/Ww7RB3r3bw
— MLB (@MLB) October 3, 2024
After the home run, Hoeing retired the next three Braves batters in the fifth before manager Mike Shildt called on Jeremiah Estrada to start the sixth. Estrada had a 28.2% strikeout rate this season, but he clearly didn’t have his best stuff on Wednesday. He allowed two singles, recorded two hard-hit outs, and got just three whiffs on 16 swings. Shildt replaced Estrada with the left-handed Scott to face lefty slugger Matt Olson with runners on the corners and two outs in a three-run game. The Atlanta cleanup hitter lined out to left field to end the inning. Scott pitched a scoreless seventh inning, but he was a bit shaky; only eight of his 24 pitches were in the strike zone.
Facing Adam after Braves shortstop Orlando Arcia singled to lead off the eighth, Harris jumped on the first pitch again, this time launching it over the center field wall for a two-run homer.
MONEY MIKE BRINGS THE @BRAVES WITHIN A RUN! pic.twitter.com/bQ7ACpECRJ
— MLB (@MLB) October 3, 2024
That blast energized the Braves dugout to a level unseen over the first 16 innings of the series; if you’re a believer in momentum, it certainly lay squarely in the visitor’s dugout at this point.
But if momentum exists at all, it sometimes exists to only be wiped away, to give a false sense of hope, to create wishes for a longer fall before the harshness of winter and the offseason sets in. Adam and closer Robert Suarez hunkered down to retire the next six Braves. After beating the Mets to clinch a playoff berth in the final regular-season game on Monday, Atlanta’s season ended on Wednesday.
Maybe swift disappointment was the only way it could end, emblematic of a trying season for Snitker’s ballclub. The Braves hoped that Spencer Strider’s elbow injury wouldn’t be too serious, only to learn that he’d need season-ending internal brace surgery. They hoped that Ronald Acuña Jr. would miss about a month or so, only to hear that he’d suffered the second torn ACL of his career and would be out for the season. They hoped Austin Riley would be back for the playoffs after breaking his hand in August, only to find out that he’d require more recovery time. And, most recently, they hoped Cy Young frontrunner Chris Sale would be on the mound for them this October, only to discover his back had flared up and he wouldn’t be able to pitch in the Wild Card Series.
All that hope will now turn to 2025, when the injured players are expected to return and bring the rejuvenated nucleus together once again. Hopefully, anyway.
As for the Padres, they’ll ride this series sweep to Los Angeles, where they’ll face off against their rival Dodgers in the best-of-five NLDS. San Diego outperformed the Dodgers in the season series, and even if Musgrove’s injury keeps him off the mound, the Padres’ pitchers are significantly healthier than the Dodgers’ staff. And because the Wild Card Series ended in just two games, San Diego can start ace Dylan Cease in Saturday’s Game 1. Then, the Padres would have Yu Darvish or King on short rest for Game 2, with the other one getting the nod in Tuesday’s Game 3.
