The Shohei Ohtani Nobody-On-Base Blues

Shohei Ohtani doesn’t have a hit with the bases empty. I kept hearing that throughout FS1’s broadcast of Game 3 of the NLCS. My first thought was, “Wow, I’m old enough to remember when they dogged star players for not hitting well enough with runners on base! I guess some people will find any reason to complain!”

My second thought was, “Huh, I thought Ohtani was having a decent postseason.” It could be better, of course. Ohtani is hitting .226/.351/.419, which I suppose is disappointing from a player with a legitimate case for being the greatest of all time. But if you told most managers that their leadoff hitter would post a .351 OBP through the first eight games of the playoffs, most of them would take it. Out of 58 players with 20 or more plate appearances this postseason, Ohtani is 18th in wRC+ and 11th in WPA. By any objective standard, Ohtani’s been perfectly adequate at the plate overall.

In fact, later in that very game, he launched a three-run home run that left the bat at 115.9 mph, the kind of Mercury-Redstone-trajectory dinger that makes even the most jaded, cynical baseball writer lean over and go, “OK, that was pretty sick.” And to be fair, the tone of the broadcasters’ “criticism,” if you want to call it that, was never biting or judgmental, the way it would be if Ohtani kept striking out looking with the bases loaded. It was more in the vein of noticing a bit of trivia. More, “Hey, isn’t that weird,” than “This guy’s a bum.”

And to be fair, it is indeed weird. There are 42 position players this postseason who have 10 plate appearances each with the bases empty and with runners on; there are actually three without a hit with nobody on base. (Ohtani’s getting singled out because the percentage of fans who know Ohtani’s dog’s name is greater than the percentage of fans who know Trey Sweeney exists.)

In the past 10 postseasons, eight players have gone 0-for-10 or worse with the bases empty in a single playoff campaign. Ohtani’s case is special, though, and not just because he’s about to win his third MVP award in four years. Ohtani is currently 0-for-22 with the bases empty in 25 plate appearances; nobody else has gotten past 0-for-15.

That’s irritating at the very least because Ohtani is a leadoff hitter. He hits with the bases empty at least once a game, usually more, since the last few guys in any lineup don’t get on base much. Ohtani has had nothing but ghost runners to drive in for 25 of his 37 postseason plate appearances so far; I didn’t know it was possible for a resident of Los Angeles to encounter so little traffic.

And it’d be one thing if Ohtani were just stinking up the place all the time. Over eight games, any great hitter can go in the toilet for a number of reasons. But with men on base, he’s been — literally — the best hitter this postseason. With runners on base, he’s hitting .778/.833/1.444. Out of that 42-player sample I mentioned earlier, Ohtani is first in batting average, first in OBP, second in slugging to Fernando Tatis Jr., first in wOBA, and first in xwOBA.

Armchair sports psychology says the opposite should be true. That when runners are on base, hitters should get nervous, grip the bat a little tighter, try to do too much. Instead, Ohtani is literally the best hitter this postseason when there are runners to drive in and literally the worst with the bases empty. (With nobody on, he’s dead last in wOBA at .083).

Given the samples involved (12 plate appearances with runners on, 25 without), random chance makes for a powerful null hypothesis here. But even if it is a coincidence, what an extraordinary coincidence it is!

Let’s take a quick look to see if Ohtani’s getting pitched differently depending on whether Tommy Edman’s standing on first or mowing down sunflower seeds in the dugout:

Aha! Ohtani is seeing more fastballs with runners on base, and he kills fastballs! In the regular season, Ohtani had a .412 wOBA against fastballs… which was actually lower than his wOBA against either breaking balls or offspeed pitches.

Or is he changing his approach based on who’s on base? I’ll preface this conclusion, if you want to call it that, with two notes. First, it bears repeating that we’re dealing with extremely small samples here. I’m about to drop a flag on a noticeable change in swing rate that amounts to a little less than four pitches over eight games. The margins are necessarily small.

Second, Ohtani is always coming out of his shoes swinging. This much is obvious if you’ve watched him even once. The man has an abnormally long and fast swing because he is, himself, abnormally long and fast.

But let’s consider the following: When Ohtani comes up with nobody in front of him, the best way for him to impact the game is to try to hit a home run. I know the traditional job of the leadoff hitter is to set the table, but this postseason has shaken out in such a way that the Dodgers are either winning, or they’re losing by a huge margin.

Of Ohtani’s 25 bases-empty plate appearances, eight have been to lead off the first inning. Those eight plate appearances include seven of the 12 times Ohtani has come to the plate with the bases empty in a one-run game. The Dodgers have not played a lot of close games this postseason, so when Ohtani comes to the plate, it’s usually to lead off — in which case, what better way to lead off than with a home run — or with the Dodgers so far ahead or behind that a walk or an opposite-field single doesn’t change much.

Only six of Ohtani’s 37 plate appearances this postseason (including his past 22) have come with a leverage index of 1.00 or greater. That dates all the way back to the second inning of Game 4 of the Padres series.

So what if Ohtani, with the bases empty and relatively little at stake, were coming up to the plate with FDR’s voice in his ears, saying, “Ohtani has no one to drive in, but Ohtani himself?” And in higher leverage, especially with runners on, perhaps he’s moderating his approach, keeping the inning rolling, staying within himself instead of coming out of his shoes.

I’m not saying we have enough data to prove that hypothesis, but it sure does look like that’s what’s happening.

“Now hang on a minute,” I can hear poor Tylor Megill thinking. “He just hit the crap out of one of my pitches with two guys on base. You mean to say that was a moderated approach?”

It’s tough to say for sure, but that’s definitely what it looks like.

Again, this is mostly a bit of trivia, and in the interest of full transparency, I am rushing to get this blog out before Ohtani leads off Game 4 with a bases-empty bomb to right center. But there is at least circumstantial evidence that Ohtani is performing that mythical task of not trying to do too much with runners on. And he’s still hitting rockets, because Ohtani holding something back is still one of the most dangerous hitters of all time.