If you’re still engaged as a fantasy manager it likely means you’re deep in your league’s playoffs and fighting for your fantasy life right now. Every game, every at bat, every pitch is nerve-racking. You’re refreshing your league page no less than 30 times a night, hoping to find HRs, SBs, and dominant pitching performances up and down your team’s stat page.
But we all know life during the fantasy playoffs isn’t so kind. Everything suddenly seems totally out of your control. Your league mates only chime in to let you know when something bad happens. Your sleep quality is in the tank as you stay up late tracking stats, following every pitch and every at bat with an anticipation known only by true gambling addicts. Your spouse is even beginning to question your sanity, along with their own life decisions.
Life is chaos during this time of year and the only thing that will snap you back to any sense of happiness is winning your league. Or at least feeling confident you can.
Fear not my fantasy friends, for I am here to help you through these very challenging times.
Here are 6 small but meaningful things you can do for your team right now that will satisfy your need for control, help you sleep better, perhaps save your marriage, and maybe, just maybe, help you win your league:
1. Reduce your liabilities. Any pitcher that could tank your season with one bad start needs to go. Yes, any pitcher, even the great ones, can tank your season, so don’t overthink this. I’m talking about the guys you’ve been riding who have been successful despite awful indicators like poor k/bb ratios, high walk totals in general, high HR rates, and insanely low BABIP. Those guys are ticking time bombs. Drop them now before it’s too late.
Drop your crappy closer(s) too. They aren’t worth it. You’re probably clinging to the saves category to begin with, scrapping by week by week. Meanwhile, unbeknownst to you, your erratic “closer” with a 4.75 ERA and 1.45 WHIP is elevating your ERA and WHIP on a weekly basis. This kind of ratio leakage isn’t worth 1 additional save. Trust me here. Drop those guys faster than they gave up their team’s lead last night.
2. Max out your RP and P slots with dominant middle relievers. Add relievers with low ERA, low WHIP, and high k/bb ratios. Those guys are the true secret to pitching success in the fantasy playoffs because they will lower your ratios and add to your strikeout total. No Rockies or White Sox starter is going to save you if you’re short on innings or k’s or anything meaningful. If you haven’t maxed out your RP with quality relievers, do it.
Some underrated relievers who are probably available in your league right now are: Cole Sands, Joe Jimenez, Kevin Ginkel, Jeremiah Estrada, Dylan Lee, Sean Hjelle, Adrian Morejon, Kevin Kelly, Blake Treinen, Robert Garcia.
3. Add at least one SP/MR eligible pitcher to play in a SP slot. I like to have at least one Luke Weaver or Matt Strahm type in my SP slot who will give me additional strikeouts and help lower my ratios. If possible, I’ll have two. Awesome relievers who don’t get saves are at times the secret sauce to a strong or dominant pitching staff. They can easily lower your team ERA by half a run and smooth out a poor start or two by your aces.
A few options who might be available are: Luke Weaver, Matt Strahm, Michael Kopech, Hunter Gaddis. Admittedly, there aren’t a lot of options here, so take advantage if you can.
4. Find the hot hands. Queue up the waiver wire and see who has been awesome over the past 14 or 30 days. Riding the hot hand has won many a fantasy league. Just be careful on the pitching side because you don’t want to add a liability based on 1-2 lucky starts. Look for strong peripherals and indicators (k/bb rate in particular) and don’t fall for the guy with a 2.90 ERA who has 7 k’s and 8 bb’s over his past 15 innings. That guy is going to tank your season. He WANTS to tank your season.
Some hitters on a roll who have interesting hitter profiles and below 50% ownership on Fantrax are: Jose Tena, Victor Robles, Spencer Horwitz, Otto Lopez, Trevor Larnach, Luke Raley, Alejandro Kirk.
5. Don’t get cute with matchups. Ride the guys who got you here. Don’t bench a really good hitter scheduled to face a good pitcher in favor of your slap hitting bench player who is facing the White Sox. The only matchups that are meaningful are lefty-righty when it comes to true platoon hitters. Other than that, play your best hitters and start your best pitchers. If they aren’t that good to begin with, see #1 and #4 on this list.
6. Use any remaining adds that you have from the previous week to set you up for the next matchup. Assuming you only get 3-5 adds in a week, you will want to maximize your ability to add players in the semis and finals. If you have any adds remaining before the next matchup begins, use them. This is your chance to start adding those relievers and hot hands so you don’t exhaust all your moves at the beginning of the matchup, rendering you helpless if an injury pops up or you need to add a pitcher to boost a stat category or two.
The fantasy playoffs are about two things: a) good fortune and b) risk mitigation. Good fortune is entirely in the hands of the fantasy gods. The advice above is all about risk mitigation. Get rid of any and all liabilities. Create a moat of strong RP around your best starting pitchers to maximize your chances of winning ratios and add to your strikeout total. Don’t overthink matchups because odds are you will get burned. Utilize meaningful statistics to evaluate players you have and players you add. This is the road to success in your fantasy playoffs. Deviate from it at your own peril. Trust no one, except me.
