The good news is the top 20 outfielders for 2024 fantasy baseball are better than the top 20 3rd basemen. The unfortunate news is, if you had a five-outfielder league, you need at least 60 of these guys in a 12-teamer, and, by the time we get through 40 in our next post, we will have already run dry of solid outfielders. Outfield isn’t shallow, but I wouldn’t say it’s deep either. This end-of-the-year ranking is from our Fantasy Baseball Player Rater with my comments. The Player Rater allows me to be impartial while looking at how I ranked them in the preseason. Anyway, here’s the top 20 outfielders for 2024 fantasy baseball and how they compare to where I originally ranked them:
1. Aaron Judge – In retrospect, did we give Judge enough respect in the preseason ranks? I’d contend (for the featherweight title) that we did. I ranked him in the top 10 overall (yes, the top 10 was heavy with outfielders), and he gives no real speed and was coming off a season that is his major drawback: Injuries. When a guy is seven-feet tall, he has an extra two feet than you or I for injuries. This is how injuries work. Don’t ask questions, I’m a doctor. Doctor of Good Hair! Very nice mutton chops, by the way. Will Judge move up a little next year? Yes, likely, but his outcomes are always going to be 35-65 HRs, 3-20 SBs, .260-.325. That’s a crazy wide array of outcomes. Most guys are Bregmen – 25-28 HRs, 3-5 SBs or .260-.280. Okay, no one is quite as predictable as Bregman, but they’re not Judge either. This year was yet another Best Case Scenario. Two of the past three years it was a BCS. If Judge keeps getting the BCS, he’s going to be taking on Navy in the Rose Bowl. Preseason Rank #7, 2024 Projections: 88/44/101/.284/7 in 491 ABs, Final Numbers: 122/58/144/.322/10 in 559 ABs
2. Juan Soto – He might be a surefire HOFer by the time he’s 30, and then have five to seven years of padding his stats. Sexy Dr. Pepper might be in The Pantheon by the time his career is over. We’re only in year five of his gloriousness and it keeps getting better. 110/35/110/.280/10 have become locks for him, barring injury, which we have not seen–Shh, I’m not trying to jinx things here. Sexy Dr. Pepper has the perfect balance of power and plate discipline. I love him. Judge and Sexy back-to-back is another good example one of the worst questions I hear in the preseason is, “Do you think it’s okay if I draft these two players from the same team? What happens when they go on a road trip to a tough park or some other nonsense this question is always so bad why am I even asking Grey?” I don’t know. Preseason Rank #8, 2024 Projections: 114/41/112/.286/12 in 559 ABs, Final Numbers: 128/41/109/.288/7 in 576 ABs
3. Brent Rooker – Didn’t remember ranking Rooker as high as I did in the preseason. In fairness, my projections are not very good and I likely should’ve ranked him lower. Surprised that I was able to grab him off waivers in my Main Event league (15-team mixed). He was coming off a 30-homer season and hit .246. He might’ve been unfairly maligned in the preseason because he had 69 RBIs and 61 runs with those 30 homers, and people figured the A’s would be A’ss once again. They weren’t. No thanks to John Fisher. Rooker has one of the prettiest Statcast pages and he seems so obvious, in retrospect. Prolly more of a .255 hitter, but not a ton in his profile screaming fluke, like a crazed fisherman. Preseason Rank #69, 2024 Projections: 58/26/64/.228/3 in 487 ABs, Final Numbers: 82/39/112/.293/11 in 546 ABs
4. Jarren Duran – Pretty happy with how aggressively I drafted Duran this past year. I had a few league wins, and Duran was a part of that. Here’s what I said in the preseason, “Duran, especially, should’ve likely got a sleeper. Here’s something that I noticed on our 15-team rankings. Duran is marked as having no value in runs, RBIs or power. I’ll quibble a bit on the power being negative, but that’s personal opinion. Ya know, if a guy who hits 10 homers in Triple-A in 68 games is an opinion and not a fact, but whatever. That’s fine. Where I’m having a hard time is he’s hitting leadoff, more than likely, so no value in runs makes no sense. He has to have the value of Yoshida in runs, at least! If his power holds from Triple-A, and he hit eight HRs last year in 332 ABs, so it seems to be holding, then he has to be as good at power as the 15-homer guy Yoshida. Maybe Duran hits for a lower average than Yoshida. He did not last year, but let’s say he hits .260. So, he’s lower in average, same in power, at least same in runs and lower in RBIs (assuming leadoff, but assuming leadoff and not giving him runs over Yoshida makes no sense). Therefore, to make up the difference, Duran would need to double Yoshida’s 10 steals projections. Let’s see. Dot dot dot. Spoiler alert! He clears 20 steals by a lot! Somehow Duran is buried in early drafts, but he’s a 15/30/.260 hitter with upside from there. The only legit concern is he platoons. Why would he platoon? He was a .289 hitter vs. lefties last year, he’s good with the glove and who is playing center now instead of him? A scarecrow in a Verdugo jersey.” And that’s me quoting me! Hey, when you have a clearcut victory lap to take, I’ll let you take it too. Preseason Rank #37, 2024 Projections: 86/15/55/.266/31 in 511 ABs, Final Numbers: 111/21/75/.285/34 in 671 ABs
5. Kyle Schwarber – And this is the opposite of a victory lap. Schwarber got me good in the preseason. I did not see how he was hitting above .200. Everything seemed to be trending in the wrong direction like my crypto portfolio. His last two years were .218, .197. I could’ve sworn from my SAT Prep courses the next number is .191. Thanks a lot, Kaplan! What’s interesting about Schwarber’s average boost this year is he stayed aggressive, but, as he continued to hit the ball hard, he didn’t do it with as much loft, while still banging homers. I don’t know if this change in approach can hold, but it could. Preseason Rank #31, 2024 Projections: 97/41/96/.191 in 579 ABs, Final Numbers: 110/38/104/.248/5 in 573 ABs
6. Yordan Alvarez – The years of me saying Captain Woo Cubano has to have at least one 50-homer season in his bat are dwindling. At a certain point, even his biggest fan (me) will have to concede he’s a 37-homer hitter with upside, not a 45-homer hitter with upside. Though, at the end of the day, I basically nailed his ranking and projections with a skosh too much optimism. But who’s really at fault when a guy doesn’t reach his potential? Me or him? Preseason Rank #9, 2024 Projections: 89/41/102/.303/1 in 492 ABs, Final Numbers: 88/35/86/.308/6 in 552 ABs
7. Teoscar Hernandez – He cooled a tad with power and ribbies in the 2nd half, but my oft-repeated thing about Teoscar in the 1st half holds: It was so obvious he was going to be great for counting stats in that lineup I should’ve been more in on him. My projections are pretty close too, so I knew this season was coming. Honestly, we all should’ve known this was coming. I blame you because you blame me. Preseason Rank #21, 2024 Projections: 83/32/91/.263/7 in 529 ABs, Final Numbers: 84/33/99/.272/12 in 589 ABs
8. Corbin Carroll – Here’s what I said late-September, ” He had two homers through the first 87 games. I’m going to say that shizz one more time, because I think it might not get through everyone’s giant melons. Through July 6th, three players played every day and had two homers or less: Corbin Carroll, Luis Arraez and Sal Frelick. Bo Bichette had four homers by that point. That is more than halfway through the season. Two homers. Corbin Carroll hit two homers yesterday. He was hitting .210 through 87 games with two homers! That is insane. From July 7th until yesterday, Sal Frelick still has two homers. Luis Arraez now has four homers. Corbin Carroll? He has 19 homers since then. The top home run hitter since then is Eugenio Suarez with only 22. Only two guys have been better for fantasy since July 7th: Shohei Ohtani (20 HRs, 30 SBs) and Judge.” And that’s me quoting me! Have a feeling there’s gonna be a nice discount on Corbin next year too, because of all the people who were burned by him and all the people who checked out early when Corbin was still bad. Any guy who can hit 25 HRs and steal 30 bags (easily) is hard for me to ignore. I might even be the high man on Corbin next year, if others are very down on him. Power and speed rules fantasy. Preseason Rank #3, 2024 Projections: 114/28/83/.291/58 in 591 ABs, Final Numbers: 121/22/74/.231/35 in 589 ABs
9. Anthony Santander – He basically took Schwarber’s old profile and said, “Give me that,” like the old Black guy from I Think You Should Leave. Everything became absurdly elevated for Santander’s season to happen, which is fine, but it’s gonna hurt his average long-term. Next year 35 HRs, .210 will be on the list of possible outcomes if he doesn’t hold where he is and sells out even more. One can only sell out so much for power, see Eric Adams for more on this. Preseason Rank #28, 2024 Projections: 76/29/88/.247/5 in 583 ABs, Final Numbers: 91/44/102/.235/2 in 595 ABs
10. Jackson Merrill – Already went over him in the top 20 shortstops for 2024 fantasy baseball.
11. Jurickson Profar – I compounded errors here. I unranked him, then grabbed him in one league crazy late in the draft, and after a hot week early on, I dropped him. Sometimes the best move is the move not made. Not sure how I could’ve anticipated this year, even in retrospect. He’s a career .245 hitter in 1115+ games and hadn’t even hit more than 20 homers in a season, coming off a year when he went 9/1/.242 at 30. If this were 1998, I’d be screaming to piss test him. Now I don’t know what to test for, green smoothies? Woke ruined my beautiful game. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 94/24/85/.280/10 in 564 ABs
12. Jazz Chisholm Jr. – Already went over him in the top 20 3rd basemen for 2024 fantasy baseball.
13. Brenton Doyle – The Rockies have beat me. You win, Bud Black! I give up! I don’t know what to make of them. Nolan Jones? 20/20/.297 in 106 games last year, then this year he Squatty Potty’d on top of fantasy teams. Last year, Doyle hit .203 in 126 games with a 35% K% and this year he drops that to 25% and hits .260. Doubles his power, but his real attribute is his speed, right? Well, he had more steals, but considering how much he was on base, he should’ve stole 45+. Oh, and he could barely buy a hit in the final month. Bud Black, you evil genius, you’ve scrambled my brain! Preseason Rank #99, 2024 Projections: 51/14/54/.218/20 in 436 ABs, Final Numbers: 82/23/72/.260/30 in 542 ABs
14. Jackson Chourio – Feels like the 1st time in a while one of my Sexy Rookies actually panned out. Merrill worked too, but Jordan Walker, Wyatt Langford, Evan Carter, all those O’s besides Cowser. A lot rookies recently have been a bit iffy. Not Chourio though! In the preseason, I said he reminds me of Acuña, and he didn’t disappoint. By the by, The Pitch Clock Twelve plays havoc on my steals projections. The Pitch Clock Twelve pertains to the plus or minus 12 steals that every player’s projections have with the pitch clock. With Chourio, it might be a plus or minus 25. I would not shocked to see him steal 45 bags next year. Or 20-ish again. Preseason Rank #25, 2024 Projections: 71/19/76/.249/28 in 509 ABs, Final Numbers: 80/21/79/.275/22 in 528 ABs
15. Bryan Reynolds – Unrelated, but when I look through my preseason rankings now I see guys I totally forgot. Here’s one: Esteury Ruiz. Member him? How about James Outman? Woof! Evan Carter? Yikes! Jung Hoo Lee? More like Jung Who Lee. Jack Suwinski? You do not remember how high we were drafting him. Not a question. You don’t. Because I didn’t! Another Pirates’ outfielder who we weren’t high enough on was Reynolds. Boring? Yeah, his name is Bryawn. Predictably decent? Yes, and has been for four straight years. Preseason Rank #32, 2024 Projections: 81/25/84/.260/7 in 552 ABs, Final Numbers: 73/24/88/.275/10 in 622 ABs
16. Ian Happ – Funny thing about Happ (not funny), even as you roster him in leagues, and he’s producing top 20 OF stats? He’s incredibly yawnstipating. Out of all the guys in this top 20, he’s likely the leading “Should I drop him?” comment getter. Though Profar is likely a close 2nd early on. At least I want to believe that, because I did drop Profar. I can’t forget that. Basically nailed Happ’s projections, but I missed on runs and RBIs and those are really shots in the dark. Preseason Rank #41, 2024 Projections: 74/20/78/.254/15 in 534 ABs, Final Numbers: 89/25/86/.243/13 in 569 ABs
17. Julio Rodriguez – Clearly, this was a disappointing season. [you lowering your head knowing a “but” is coming] But…[you sadly shake your head]…JRod shows how A) Good he is. He had a terrible season, and he was still pretty valuable. B) You can only go so wrong with a player if he has speed and power. Five-Cat cats rule. C) There’s no C. Looking at JRod’s peripherals and it’s hard to see how he was such a disappointment. My guess is he just missed on a bunch of hittable pitches. If the season were another three months long, I’d buy JRod low. Is there a 3rd half of the season? No? Oh well. Preseason Rank #2, 2024 Projections: 111/35/109/.283/32 in 607 ABs, Final Numbers: 76/20/68/.273/24 in 567 ABs
18. Seiya Suzuki – If I could toot my own horn for a minute — I’d never leave my house and it would be more like 30 seconds — I nailed Seiya’s projections too. Overall, nailed Seiya, Reynolds, Happ, Chourio, Teoscar, Yordan, Judge, Soto and Duran. That’s not bad. It did feel like a solid year overall, but it’s nice to see it look that way in the recaps. We’ll see how the top 40 outfielders look next. Or I guess, Seiya…Preseason Rank #23, 2024 Projections: 77/24/82/.276/11 in 502 ABs, Final Numbers: 74/21/73/.283/16 in 512 ABs
19. Mookie Betts – Already went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2024 fantasy baseball.
20. Brandon Nimmo – Admittedly gave up on Nimmo way too early, and was too down on him to begin with in the preseason. Sometimes it’s hard to locate Nimmo. He had a Matt Chapman-like uptick in speed, but, unlike Chapman, Nimmo has always been fast. He just only ran on walks. He had a miserable year on average, but that looks both BABIP and age-induced. One is luck and one is up to the painting in the attic. Preseason Rank #43, 2024 Projections: 101/20/63/.269/3 in 582 ABs, Final Numbers: 88/23/90/.224/15 in 571 ABs
