All the final 2024 fantasy baseball rankings for hitters are done. For those that skipped today’s title, this starts the top 20 starters for 2024 fantasy baseball. This is NOT for next year (caps for those who can’t read titles; supposedly it’s easier to read caps, I have my doubts). This is a recap. Will these affect next year’s rankings? Sure. Maybe. Maybe not. I don’t know. Not entirely. Yes, entirely. Like when you had a knee replacement, this is a recap! To recapitulate the recap, these rankings are from our Fantasy Baseball Player Rater. We’re (me’re) using it to fairly gauge our (my) preseason rankings. Anyway, here’s the top 20 starters for 2024 fantasy baseball and how they compared to where I originally ranked them:
1. Tarik Skubal – This is already a case for punting top starters. Your 2nd best starter last year was drafted around 200th overall. Your 2nd best OF was drafted around 10th overall. Your 2nd best 1B was drafted around 10 overall. Your 2nd best SS was drafted around 25th overall. Same for your 2nd best 3B. Catchers was also around a 170th overall for 2nd best, and you should punt them too. You should punt positions that have the highest amount of risk. This is so obvious. Why don’t others tell you this? I don’t know. Ask them. Everyone could’ve had Tarik without risking a top pick too. You could not have drafted Aaron Judge, Ohtani or other top hitters at 50th overall. You could’ve for Tarik. I don’t know how many times I need to say this. Out of the top 10 starters only two of them needed to be drafted in the top 25, and barely one, if being honest. That was Burnes, who had the worst season of his career. Let’s go to the next blurb. Preseason Rank #13, 2024 Projections: 10-8/3.09/1.02/183 in 154 IP, Final Numbers: 18-4/2.39/0.92/228 in 192 IP
2. Chris Sale – There’s a very good reason why starters are so highly volatile. ERA, WHIP and Wins are almost entirely out of their control. Wins? Completely. Ratios less so, but still they’re not fielding, guys hit balls where fielders ain’t, Wee Willie Keeler. Pitchers control Ks. Starters will never get saves. So *at best* four categories. Bobby Witt Jr. gives you four categories at best or nah? (Hint: It’s nah.) Great hitters give five categories and are more or less predictable for all five categories with HR/SB being the easiest. Five categories and control two cats easily vs. Control one cat and four categories at best? That’s it. Next blurb please. Preseason Rank #53, 2024 Projections: 10-6/3.84/1.14/138 in 115 IP, Final Numbers: 18-3/2.38/1.01/225 in 177 2/3 IP
3. Zack Wheeler – There’s a lot to dig in on pitchers, which I think makes them more interesting. Arm angle, pitch mix, velo? You could spend an hour talking about those three things for every pitcher. Hitters? They’re strong or fast, basically. (There’s more obviously, but hitters are not as interesting as pitchers.) So, people get wrapped up in “knowing pitchers.” I get it. But if a guy throws a fork ball or not doesn’t really help us for fantasy at its most base level. Does he throw it over the plate? Does he combine it with a change? A 89 MPH fastball? A 98 MPH fastball? All of these things are interesting, but they still don’t help us when they only control the ball until it’s at the batter. Then throw in how injury-prone pitchers are and how one little adjustment and their mechanics are messed up and they have a bad month and another bad one and suddenly their entire year is screwed: Hello, Pablo Lopez. Preseason Rank #3, 2024 Projections: 15-7/3.31/1.06/207 in 191 IP, Final Numbers: 16-7/2.56/0.96/213 in 193 2/3 IP
4. Logan Gilbert – Mariners’ front office said they’re aiming for a .540 winning percentage. If they did that they might’ve made the playoffs. If they did that, Lo-Gi might not have 200+ IP and 8 wins. That’s bonkers. That’s like a 5% outcome. He has 700 career IP and 40 wins with a 3.63 ERA. Don’t play the lottery, Logan, you’re a cursed man. Preseason Rank #12, 2024 Projections: 13-6/3.46/1.09/190 in 194 IP, Final Numbers: 8-12/3.33/0.91/213 in 203 IP
5. Shota Imanaga – You keep reading how I say knowable. Shota was interesting because he seemed knowable, but he was not at all. Or we didn’t want to see the obvious. Fascinating because everything I read about Shota from the preseason and I knew he was going to be good, but I clearly didn’t want to commit. I said, “Recently, Shota’s been lights outa. Last year, he went 2.66 ERA, 1.02 WHIP with 188 Ks in 159 IP, that’s 10.6 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9. He works off a 94.4 MPH fastball (maxes out at 96.2); 73.1 MPH curve; a 84 MPH splitter and 82.8 MPH slider. You basically need to be the elite-iest (it’s a word because I say so!) of the elite-iest to make it work in MLB what worked in Japan, and I think he’s just below that level. He gave up a few too many homers in NPB — here’s a comp: Yamamoto allowed two homers all year; Shota gave up 18. In Wrigley? He could get bombed out. His command is solid, but Yu Darvish was a 0.83 WHIP pitcher in Japan before coming here.” And that’s me quoting me! I can read what I wrote and know I liked a guy — and I liked Shota and drafted Shota! — but I was clearly nowhere near as optimistic on Shota as I should’ve been. Plus, Wrigley suddenly became a top pitchers’ park. Humidors have flipped every park to its exact opposite of seven to ten years ago. Preseason Rank #71, 2024 Projections: 10-8/3.91/1.17/164 in 152 IP, Final Numbers: 15-3/2.91/1.02/174 in 173 1/3 IP
6. Seth Lugo – Was a guy who I did not write a sleeper post about but I highlighted repeatedly in the preseason about how you should draft him. It would be disingenuous to say I thought this good of a season was on the horizon, but Seth Lugo is one of those guys that baffles me. He has near-850 IP in his career and a 3.38 ERA and 1.15 WHIP with a 8.8 K/9. That’s a top 20 starter if he gets win luck. I said more or less exactly that all preseason, hopefully you drafted him. Preseason Rank #51, 2024 Projections: 8-12/3.62/1.18/156 in 154 IP, Final Numbers: 16-9/3.00/1.09/181 in 206 2/3 IP
7. Dylan Cease – After taking a brief detour to talk about Shota, Logan and Seth, I am once again asking you to look at Cease not as a guy who was knowable coming into this year. You might’ve liked him for Ks, but you had no idea what to expect, otherwise you would’ve drafted him before 120 overall. Please stop pretending like you knew. Lying to yourself just hurts you going forward. He was great with the White Sox, then bad on the White Sox, then great again this year. No one saw it coming. Everyone saw the same thing: He needed to fix his control. Only he knew he could do that. You could’ve guessed he would do it. But that is a guess. What was knowable? Same as every pitcher that has a track record: Ks. I projected Cease for 222 Ks, he had 224. That’s what’s knowable. Preseason Rank #28, 2024 Projections: 14-10/3.57/1.30/222 in 179 IP, Final Numbers: 14-11/3.47/1.07/224 in 189 1/3 IP
8. Paul Skenes – Totally missed on Skenes this year and how many IP he would throw for the Pirates. This was the year to get him. Hopefully you were able to get him off waivers. I should’ve been in on him in all my NL-Only leagues. That is a Mr. Bungle by me. The juice was worth the squeeze because of how late he was being drafted. As I said after his last start, “So, was trying to come up with the best rookie seasons for pitchers, and I think it’s 1. Mark Fidyrich 2. Fernando Valenzuela 3. Dwight Gooden 4. Tom Seaver 5. Jose Fernandez, 6. John Montefusco, then Paul Skenes. Not bad company!” And that’s me quoting me! Preseason Rank #107, 2024 Projections: 1-2/2.67/1.03/21 in 14 IP, Final Numbers: 11-3/1.96/0.95/170 in 133 IP
9. Corbin Burnes – I admittedly don’t consume anyone else’s fantasy content so I don’t get wrongfully influenced, but I watch social media for people saying things, and I have not seen anyone mention how incredibly bad Burnes’s season was. I could see him getting rocked next April and everyone being like, “Wow, where did this come from,” and at that point I become The Joker because I’ve been saying this for close to 18 months. Preseason Rank #2, 2024 Projections: 13-6/3.27/1.05/209 in 194 IP, Final Numbers: 15-9/2.92/1.10/181 in 194 1/3 IP
10. Bryce Miller – Love the M’s pitchers (besides Castillo). As I kept saying all year, next year I want to draft all M’s (minus Castillo). You throw no walks and you have me hook, line and sinker, curve, whatever. Bryce Miller is also on the verge of his “stereotypical breakout third year.” Could Miller be next year’s Skubal? Well, I wouldn’t have teased it here if I didn’t think it. Preseason Rank #39, 2024 Projections: 10-9/3.83/1.10/139 in 151 IP, Final Numbers: 12-8/2.94/0.98/171 in 180 1/3 IP
11. Framber Valdez – Some of the rankings here are misleading. Framber’s might be one of the biggest ones. I did not want to draft him. His 2nd half in 2023 had me fully shook. As I alluded to then and have said many times before, if a guy has question marks, I just avoid. There’s too many other options. In the top 20 starters, I said to avoid Nola, Snell, Glasnow, Fried and Framber. Framber’s the only one ending the year in the top 20, so lost the battle but won the war. Preseason Rank #19, 2024 Projections: 10-9/3.57/1.18/154 in 151 IP, Final Numbers: 15-7/2.91/1.11/169 in 176 1/3 IP
12. Jack Flaherty – Time we start recognizing the Tigers’ pitching coach, Chris Fetter. Fetter is a go-getter! Sorry, trying to delete. Just read Fetter’s wiki page and he’s from where Cougs’ folks are from, Carmel, Indiana. I wonder if he also doesn’t know what to do with a stop sign and only knows yields. If you know you know. Any hoo! Seeing Fetter’s success and it’s hard not to see the opposite issue for the Cards. They draft well, but can’t develop anything. They tried to unlock Flaherty for so long, and he fixed it all in under three months. Flaherty’s stats also look on the verge of Skubal Part II: Get Ready For Twobal. Preseason Rank #126, 2024 Projections: 7-10/4.41/1.44/156 in 152 IP, Final Numbers: 13-7/3.17/1.07/194 in 162 IP
13. Ronel Blanco – Can’t spell Ronel without the L I took not believing in him. I am not bragging by saying I did well in my leagues this year, so you don’t have to be right about every player. I get plenty wrong. Ronel was one. He threw his no-hitter and I still didn’t believe him. He came out of nowhere, and I didn’t even believe it after he appeared. That’s a blind spot. We should trust a little quicker, because if a guy is breaking out, then you ride it. If he actually sucks, then you drop him after his one blow up. You’re risking one 3 IP, 5 ER for 160 IP of 3.00. It’s worth it. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 13-6/2.80/1.09/166 in 167 1/3 IP
14. Cole Ragans – Can I be honest with you? No? Too bad, I will tell you anyway. Ragans still does less for me than others. I hate a 3+ BB/9. I do not need Ks that much to fix the walks, because it’s not only the walks as they are, but the risk they suddenly get worse. If Kirby, for unstints, loses his command, his walks are still fine. If Ragans loses his mechanics in the middle of the season, he becomes a 4.5 BB/9 pitcher and unownable, which is why it’s confusing to say, but: While it was empirically wrong to avoid him, I still think I was right to avoid Ragans this year. Preseason Rank #31, 2024 Projections: 8-11/3.85/1.22/159 in 143 IP, Final Numbers: 11-9/3.14/1.14/223 in 186 1/3 IP
15. George Kirby – I know the ERA is a little high this year for Kirby but his stats are nuts year over year. Gonna start calling him Mr. Robot. He throws the ball exactly in the same place giving us exact same results year over year over year. He’s the closest we have to a modern-day Maddux. Yeah, we’re old as crap that there’s even such a thing as a modern-day Maddux. Preseason Rank #7, 2024 Projections: 13-8/3.07/1.02/177 in 188 IP, Final Numbers: 14-11/3.53/1.07/179 in 191 IP
16. Michael King – I liked King, ranked him high for his preseason ADP, projected him well, and didn’t draft him anywhere. The L King is me. The King of Ls. Singing Ex’s & Oh’s because I am L King. That the Yanks gave him away, well, they got Soto, so Juan love, can’t fault them too much, except they never gave King a real chance. He’s already 29 years old and has only 420 IP in his career. That’s ridiculous. Guy has zero chance for a long career. Should be 24 to 26 years of age doing this. The numbers do back up the breakout, and I was basically right on it with my projections, I just never thought he’d go from 104 2/3 IP to 175-ish. That’s nuts. No matter his age. Preseason Rank #43, 2024 Projections: 7-9/3.47/1.18/156 in 134 IP, Final Numbers: 13-9/2.95/1.19/201 in 173 2/3 IP
17. Sonny Gray – I love Gray so much. Narcissism? Maybe. This past year was a return back to his truly elite years though, which I did not expect. Pitching is so goofy, exhibit 1-billion: Gray gained two full Ks per nine at 34. Why? His sinker and sweeper were working and he stopped throwing his janky fastball as much. Was it because he was in fastball-throwing counts less? Prolly. Is that repeatable? I’d say decidedly no, but Gray’s a solid fantasy baseball blogger–Sorry, I was confusing us. Sonny is still solid even without the huge uptick in Ks. Preseason Rank #48, 2024 Projections: 9-8/3.21/1.14/157 in 160 IP, Final Numbers: 13-9/3.84/1.09/203 in 166 1/3 IP
19. Bailey Ober – Wow, was this year out of nowhere. OR WAS IT?! Damn, Mr. Reversal! You’re remembering my Bailey Ober sleeper post, aren’t you? OR AM I?! Okay, now you’re confusing me. OR DID I?! No, you really did. OR NOT?! Please stop. OR YES?! What? OR WHY?! So, I’ve long been a fan of Ober because the Twins are like Mini Mariners. Call them Minny M’s. They teach great command and solid Ks and that rules fantasy right now. I told you this all offseason. Hope you listened. Preseason Rank #37, 2024 Projections: 11-7/3.61/1.14/156 in 151 IP, Final Numbers: 12-9/3.98/1.00/191 in 178 2/3 IP
19. Sean Manaea – You either think I’m hideous at ranking and projecting or see Manaea’s preseason rank and end-of-the-year rank and see what I’m saying about pitchers being unpredictable. In preseason I said, “Signed with the Mets. He becomes the 2nd Samoan Mets player of all-time. The first was Bartolo Colon–Oh, wait, he just ate Samoa cookies. That’s my bad. Manaea feels like Quintana, Part Deux. Call him Josecanyouseeifyou Squintana. ” And that’s me making me laugh! xFIP is flawed for its own reasons but Manaea’s xFIP was basically my projections. He had a career year, good for him. Preseason Rank #102, 2024 Projections: 7-9/3.97/1.28/142 in 137 IP, Final Numbers: 12-6/3.47/1.08/184 in 181 2/3 IP
20. Hunter Greene – So bummed that he had elbow soreness this year, because that almost immediately takes him off my draft list next year, even though he had the kind of year prior that gets a guy about to take the step forward to the top five overall. His WHIP alone is butter on the roof of Honda parked on the sun. But the elbow and decreased velo and Ks? Missed a month, almost made the top 20 starters and it still has me making the Larry David meh face. This is about last year and not next, but seeing that he said his elbow injury was due to banging into a cabinet, so maybe I can convince myself. Maybe. Preseason Rank #29, 2024 Projections: 9-12/3.91/1.36/196 in 152 IP, Final Numbers: 9-5/2.75/1.02/169 in 150 1/3 IP
