Top of the Order: AL Trade Deadline Preview

Welcome back to Top of the Order, where every Tuesday and Friday I’ll be starting your baseball day with some news, notes, and thoughts about the game we love.

With just four weeks to go until the July 30 trade deadline, now’s a great time to start taking a lay of the land and determining which teams will be buying, which will be selling, and which are caught in the middle. I’ll tackle the AL today and the NL on Friday. We’ve got a lot to cover, so let’s get started.

All playoff odds are updated through the start of play on Monday.

The Obvious Buyers

New York Yankees (99.4% playoff odds)

It doesn’t take much scrolling through Twitter/X to see some Yankees fans in a bit of a panic because of how things have gone lately. They are 5-10 over their last 15 games, Giancarlo Stanton and Anthony Rizzo are on the IL, and Alex Verdugo and Anthony Volpe have gone cold during this disappointing stretch. But they’re still all but assured of a playoff spot, and the recent cracks in the foundation don’t change their deadline strategy.

The rotation has hit a bit of a rough patch recently, but it is still a strong and deep group. Improving the offense behind Juan Soto and Aaron Judge and adding bullpen depth are the two areas that New York needs to address before the end of this month.

Potential additions: Reliever Tanner Scott (Marlins), third baseman Ryan McMahon (Rockies), and utilitymen Luis Rengifo (Angels) and Amed Rosario (Rays).

Baltimore Orioles (98.0% playoff odds)

Well, the Orioles certainly don’t need offense. Their position player depth is astounding, and the current roster doesn’t even include top prospects Jackson Holliday and Coby Mayo, who both are waiting in the wings at Triple-A.

Baltimore’s pitching, on the other hand, is something of a mess. With Kyle Bradish, John Means, and Tyler Wells out for the season, Corbin Burnes and Grayson Rodriguez are the only pitchers left in the rotation whom I’d feel comfortable starting in the postseason. Adding a starter or two would have the cascading effect of improving the the Orioles’ relief pitching by bumping Cole Irvin and/or Albert Suárez to the bullpen. They would be wise to trade from their wealth of position players to better their pitching. A swap with the Mariners, who have a surplus of pitching but lack offense, would make a lot of sense.

Potential additions: Starters Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo (Mariners), Garrett Crochet and Erick Fedde (White Sox), Tyler Anderson (Angels), Yusei Kikuchi (Blue Jays), Jack Flaherty (Tigers), and Cal Quantrill (Rockies), and relievers Mason Miller (A’s) and Tanner Scott (Marlins).

Cleveland Guardians (89.2% playoff odds)

The Guardians have the best closer in baseball, Emmanuel Clase, anchoring their bullpen, but their mostly ineffective and inefficient starting rotation could make things difficult for the relievers down the stretch as their innings pile up. It helps that Cleveland has Gavin Williams back and recently added Matthew Boyd on a one-year deal, though he won’t pitch until August, but those two are hardly enough to sufficiently reinforce the rotation. That said, the Guardians typically don’t swing big for pitching, opting instead to develop arms from within, so it’s hard to imagine that they’ll play at the top of the market for starters, especially the non-rentals.

Cleveland’s offense has been a solid Voltron of multi-positional versatility and platoons, though I’d argue it could use one more everyday bat with some pop.

Potential additions: Starters Jack Flaherty (Tigers), Trevor Williams (Nationals), Frankie Montas (Reds), Nick Pivetta (Red Sox), and Yusei Kikuchi (Blue Jays), outfielder Taylor Ward (Angels), and DH/outfielder Brent Rooker (A’s).

Minnesota Twins (79.5% playoff odds)

Despite chasing the Guardians in the AL Central standings, the Twins are in a good position as we enter July. Carlos Correa has been dynamic, Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis are in the lineup together, and the rotation has been pretty good.

Still, Minnesota lacks power — catcher Ryan Jeffers, who’s been slumping lately, leads the team with 13 homers — though it certainly helps to have Lewis healthy and thumping again. The Twins could also use a better backup infielder than Kyle Farmer, who’s been anemic at the dish all season long.

Potential additions: Infielder Gio Urshela (Tigers), outfielder Taylor Ward (Angels), DH/outfielder Brent Rooker (A’s), and utilityman Amed Rosario (Rays).

Seattle Mariners (71.9% playoff odds)

The Mariners are the inverse of the Orioles: Seattle has excellent starting pitching but desperately needs to boost its offense. The O’s have a surplus of hitters, and if the M’s are willing to trade a back-of-the-rotation arm like Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo (especially if they can add another starter elsewhere), the two teams absolutely should make a trade. Baltimore outfielder Heston Kjerstad and second baseman Connor Norby would be nice additions to the Seattle lineup.

Last week, I mentioned that acquiring Luis Robert Jr. would be the best upgrade the Mariners could possibly make to their lineup, and although moving Robert would be the prudent decision for the White Sox, it’s unclear whether they’d actually do it. If not, there are still plenty of hitters on the block who’d help beef up the Seattle offense.

Potential additions: Second baseman Connor Norby (Orioles), outfielders Heston Kjerstad (Orioles), Luis Robert Jr. (White Sox), Taylor Ward (Angels), Josh Lowe (Rays), and DH/outfielder Brent Rooker (A’s).

On the Fence

Houston Astros (54.1% playoff odds)

After catching fire over the final two weeks of June, the Astros probably will end up buying at the deadline, but considering their playoff odds are basically a coin flip, we have to consider both options. If they buy, they’ll focus on adding pitching, though they could certainly use a big bat at first base. If they decide to sell, I can’t imagine they’d tear it all down. I also don’t expect that they’d trade third baseman Alex Bregman, even though he’s a pending free agent, because they probably wouldn’t want to hurt their chances to re-sign him in the offseason. If nothing else, they’ll extend him a qualifying offer that would earn them a compensation draft pick if he signs elsewhere.

Potential additions: Starters Yusei Kikuchi (Blue Jays), Nick Pivetta (Red Sox), Jack Flaherty (Tigers), Trevor Williams (Nationals), and Frankie Montas (Reds), reliever Tanner Scott (Marlins), and first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Blue Jays).

Potential subtractions: Starter Justin Verlander and reliever Ryan Pressly.

Kansas City Royals (40.1% playoff odds)

Kansas City has given every indication that it intends to buy at the deadline, and its weekend series win over the Guardians did nothing to change that stance. The Royals need bullpen help and more pop in their lineup.

The thing is, our playoff odds don’t love their chances. If they have a rough month, they should consider reversing course to improve their longer-term outlook so they can make a run next year. They have good complementary pieces on expiring contracts that teams would love to acquire.

Potential acquisitions: Reliever Tanner Scott (Marlins), infielder Ryan McMahon (Rockies), outfielders Taylor Ward (Angels) and Josh Lowe (Rays), and DH/outfielder Brent Rooker (A’s).

Potential subtractions: Relievers Will Smith and Chris Stratton, and utilitymen Garrett Hampson and Adam Frazier.

Boston Red Sox (31.4% playoff odds)

Oh, if only Red Sox didn’t play in such a tough division. Winning the AL East is essentially off the table, so if they sneak into the playoffs, it’ll be as a Wild Card team. Like the Astros and Royals, if Boston is on the selling side, it should sell only its rentals so it can try to contend again next year.

If the Red Sox decide to buy, they need depth on both sides of the ball. Strong seasons from Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, Rafael Devers, Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, and Tyler O’Neill have helped — as will a return from Triston Casas — but the supporting cast hasn’t been quite as helpful.

Potential acquisitions: Starters Trevor Williams (Nationals) and Frankie Montas (Reds), reliever Tanner Scott (Marlins), infielder Gio Urshela (Tigers), and utilityman Amed Rosario (Rays).

Potential subtractions: Starter Nick Pivetta, relievers Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin, and Chase Anderson, and outfielder Tyler O’Neill.

Tampa Bay Rays (21.6% playoff odds)

Even when they were clear contenders, the Rays were always willing to trade from their major league roster. Now, with their payroll at an all-time high and the team merely treading water, that stance should be even more pronounced.

Nobody’s safe from Tampa Bay’s wheeling and dealing, and I’m not even going to bother listing potential acquisitions because it could be anyone the team sets its sights on. These are the Rays, after all.

Potential subtractions: Starter Aaron Civale, relievers Phil Maton and Shawn Armstrong, second baseman Brandon Lowe, and utilityman Amed Rosario.

Texas Rangers (6.7% playoff odds)

If they weren’t the reigning World Series champs, I’d be pretty sure the Rangers would sell at the deadline. But with plenty of talent on the roster, and with Wyatt Langford finally breaking out, I could see them standing pat or adding while subtracting along the margins in hopes that it all clicks. Maybe they could re-create their magic by trading for some of the relievers they had last year, such as Will Smith, Chris Stratton, and Aroldis Chapman. Either way, I don’t see any huge moves coming.

Potential acquisitions: Relievers Will Smith and Chris Stratton (Royals), Aroldis Chapman (Pirates), Yimi García (Blue Jays), and John Brebbia (White Sox), infielder Gio Urshela (Tigers), outfielder Tommy Pham (White Sox), and utilityman Amed Rosario (Rays).

Potential subtractions: Reliever José Ureña and outfielders Travis Jankowski and Robbie Grossman.

Likely and Definite Sellers

Toronto Blue Jays (4.5% playoff odds)

While the Blue Jays haven’t publicly committed to selling, their lane for contention continues to narrow, and they just don’t have the depth in their farm system to make the moves necessary to contend.

If they sell, I don’t think anyone would be off the table, but they likely would be more willing to trade their expensive contracts instead of their more reasonable deals. That means they probably won’t be shopping utilityman Isiah Kiner-Falefa and outfielder Daulton Varsho. That’s fine, because Toronto has more high-end talent to trade than any other team in the league.

Potential subtractions: Starters Yusei Kikuchi, Chris Bassitt, Kevin Gausman, and José Berríos, relievers Yimi García and Trevor Richards, first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr., shortstop Bo Bichette, infielder/DH Justin Turner, outfielders George Springer and Kevin Kiermaier, and catcher Danny Jansen,

Detroit Tigers (3.1% playoff odds)

The Tigers looked like they could be soft buyers or at least stand pat as recently as a month or so ago, but their season has taken a nosedive in part due to the underperformance of Spencer Torkelson and an injury to Kerry Carpenter. Tarik Skubal isn’t going anywhere, but Detroit has a nice collection of rentals that other teams will covet.

Potential subtractions: Starter Jack Flaherty, reliever Shelby Miller, infielder Gio Urshela, outfielder/first baseman Mark Canha, and catcher Carson Kelly.

Los Angeles Angels (0.7% playoff odds)

Should the Angels tear it down? Absolutely. Will they tear it down? Never! At least not as long as Arte Moreno owns the team.

While I can’t imagine Mike Trout ever wearing another uniform, the Angels have a massive collection of rentals who would be of use to contenders. Additionally, they could (read: should) trade several players who are under club control, such as Luis Rengifo and Tyler Anderson, who free agents after 2025, and Taylor Ward, a free agent after 2026.

Potential subtractions: Starter Tyler Anderson, relievers Matt Moore, Carlos Estévez, Luis García, and Adam Cimber, infielder Brandon Drury, outfielders Taylor Ward and Kevin Pillar, utilityman Luis Rengifo, and DH Miguel Sanó.

Chicago White Sox (0.0% playoff odds)

The White Sox were always going to be hard sellers, especially after they traded Dylan Cease to the Padres shortly before the season started and signaled a real and potentially long rebuild.

Garrett Crochet is almost definitely going to be on the move, with Erick Fedde likely to go as well. The only player who might be untouchable is center fielder Luis Robert Jr., though they probably should shop him around to get a haul of prospects back.

Potential subtractions: Starters Garrett Crochet and Erick Fedde, relievers Michael Kopech and John Brebbia, shortstop Paul DeJong, outfielders Luis Robert Jr. and Tommy Pham, and DH/outfielder Eloy Jiménez.

Oakland Athletics (0.0% playoff odds)

The Sacramento (but don’t put it in the team name) A’s are going to look different than the final iteration of the Oakland A’s, and that makeover will start this month. While a trade including Mason Miller deal feels extremely hard to agree upon considering his five years of team control after this one — giving the A’s a marketable player for their 2028 beginnings in Las Vegas — they still should consider trading him for a prospect haul. Everyone else of value on their roster should also be available.

Potential subtractions: Starter JP Sears, relievers Mason Miller and Lucas Erceg, outfielder JJ Bleday, DH/outfielders Brent Rooker and Miguel Andujar, and catcher Shea Langeliers.