We all need some recharging every now and again; the stresses of work, family, and life in general can slowly drain us so that we aren’t at our best. I’m a middle/high school teacher, and I love (need?) summer break because it’s a time to recharge my mental/emotional batteries so that I can be at my patient, understanding, caring best (for approximately four hours or until the 15th teenager asks me the same question I’ve already answered numerous times; whichever comes first). That’s where a fun little distraction like fantasy baseball comes in.
Ha! You fool. Of course this isn’t stress-free, as any of you who are commissioner of your own league can attest. Maybe you don’t commission your league, but you’re an active member trying to improve your team, and half of the people you reach out to for potential deals still have Wander Franco starting at SS and think Eury Perez is taking the bump every 5th day.
Perhaps you’re a manager looking forward to the All-Star Break, where you can ignore your team for a handful of days and introduce yourself to the woman (or man!) and smaller people you see roaming around your house most days (hint: they’re likely you’re family. You may recognize them from when there were no leaves on the trees, or perhaps from pictures scattered about the residence).
Ha x2! Of course you aren’t ignoring your teams over the ASB; this is the *perfect* time for you to decide if you’re a buyer or a seller, because the push for a championship begins when toe meets rubber a week from today. You can use these days to scope out trade targets and initiate conversations with other managers, because every game lost to trading stalemate is one day fewer you have to make your move.
Stress not, friends; I’m here to help you get moving over your ASB with a few power-oriented hitter targets. I’m focusing on power-ish stats/analytics because hitting dingers is the quickest way to improve in four categories. Some of my targets may truly help in only three (they may be an AVG/OBP drain) but at least when they leave the yard they’re helping in that particular ratio. I focused on LD%/FB%/Pull% because there’s no better way to hit a home run than pulling it in the air, and HardHit%/Barrel% because the only thing better than pulling a fly ball is pulling it hard (I wrote a pre-season article using these same methodologies, gifting you Logan O’Hoppe and Davis Schneider–you’re welcome!).
Let’s start with probably the biggest name and a likely source of frustration for his fantasy owners–Matt Olson. Chances are, you’ll have to pay up, but there’s also a chance you could unload an overperforming SP (Seth Lugo, anybody?) when you’re already in a good spot with your pitching categories and plug in Olson for the coming power burst. Olson has given you a disappointing (for your expectations of him) 13 homers, but enough data says there’s a better 2nd half in store. Olson is one of only 14 qualified hitters who crossed the 40/40/40/10 benchmark (over 40% FB/Pull/HardHit % and over 10% Barrel%), and all but two of them have more HRs than Olson (the other two I’ll be covering in blurbs here too). Olson is top-40 in FB% and HardHit%, and top-30 in Pull%. The Statcast sliders that matter are in his favor, too, so I’m betting on the back of the baseball card for this guy.
Another 40/40/40/10 club member that you likely won’t have to pay much for is Matt Vierling. I’m a Detroit Tiger fan and watch as many of their games as I can, and he’s either leading off or batting in the 3-hole (as I type this, he’s hitting 3rd vs. Cleveland’s Spencer Howard) every game. That may be because the Tigers lack top-end hitting talent, but Vierling is doing his part to prove that he possesses some hitting talent, too, and is unlocking more of his potential. Vierling probably has 3B/OF eligibility in your league, and his 12 homers portend somebody who can replicate that same statline the rest of the season, if not improve it. He’s got 91st percentile sprint speed, an excellent eye, and his Launch Angle is fantastic. This is an easy CI/OF add in 12+ team leagues that you can either pick up for free (36% rostered in Fantrax leagues) or trade for without giving up much.
Speaking of free, why not go get Dodgers OF Andy Pages and enjoy some profit? Pages is another member of the 40/40/40/10 club, but has only smacked 8 longballs this year. Pages’s calling card is his power, with back-to-back seasons of 31 and 26 HRs in the minors. Pages has 72nd percentile bat speed and 71st percentile LA, and he’s got the sixth-most plate appearances on the Dodgers, so he’s getting the playing time and opportunity. He hasn’t forgotten how to pull the ball or hit it hard, and if he keeps his PT, I believe Pages will crest 20 homers this year.
If I drop the FB% requirement and move it to just a 40/40/10 club, Oneil Cruz jumps into the fray. I should say he Kool-Aid jug smashes his way into the fray, as his HardHit% is 7th overall in MLB and his Barrel% is 3rd. If this was animated, every time he hit the ball there would just be dust and stitches lying all over the baseball field. He isn’t (fairly) free like the two dudes above, but he may be the biggest “go get him” in this article because he can also give you juice on the basepaths (though his 88th percentile sprint speed has only led to 7 swipes so far).
Let’s end with some quick-hitters:
- Two weeks ago I gave you Vinnie Pasquantino and I don’t feel any less confident recommending him again, as he’s 44/48/47, only missing the Barrel% (below 8%). His metrics are too good to support 11 homers.
- I recommended Logan O’Hoppe over Yainer Diaz preseason (and still do, as O’Hoppe has been great and everything behind O’Hoppe says that it could only get better), but this isn’t an O’Hoppe blurb. Diaz pulls it 42% of the time and has a HardHit% of over 45%; you’d think that would be a recipe for success with the Crawford boxes in Houston, but you can’t get into the boxes if you can’t get over the wall, and his FB% is below 30%. It’s really just that much of a difference between his 7 current homers and a torrid pace that could push him over 20 for the year. He’s clearly got that in him, and I’m willing to bet on him more than doubling his current 7 homers.
- As a fellow Ozzie Albies owner, I’m as frustrated as the rest of you. He’s pulling it 49% of the time and hitting a fly ball 44% of the time, so why aren’t more of them clearing the fences? Maybe because he’s hitting it hard only 31% of the time and barreling it under 6% of the time. So which side do you bet on? I’m betting on this year falling short of expectations for our guy Ozhaino, and if you can sell in redrafts, I would. Dynasty, hold or buy.
