Some weeks the two start options are full of showcase pieces that immediately catch your eye. Some weeks feel like we’re getting the leftovers and it’s hard to get very excited about what’s on offer. Then there’s this week, which feels like a confusing assorted grab bag of options. There are a few of the top starters out there, which is nice. But there are also a lot of guys who have been disappointing so far with good matchups, and guys who have overperformed so far with terrible ones. Hopefully, performances this week will help give us all some clarity for weeks to come.
What follows are our projections at time of writing as to who will be making two-starts this week, but weather, injuries, and secretive team management mean they are just that: projections. To stay as up-to-date as possible, consult Rudy Gamble’s invaluable Streamonator.
Chocolate Chip Cookies (Must Start)
They are kings of the cookie world for a reason. A warm, freshly baked chocolate chip cookie just makes you feel happy. Sort of like getting to set your rosters knowing you get two starts this week from these guys.
| Pitcher | First Start | Second Start |
|---|---|---|
| Zack Wheeler, PHI | @BOS | @BAL |
| Corbin Burnes, Bal | @TTB | @PHI |
| Logan Gilbert, Sea | CHW | TEX |
| Pablo Lopez, Min | COL | OAK |
| Bryan Woo, Sea | CHW | TEX |
| Carlos Rodon, NYY | @KC | @BOS |
| Paul Skenes, Pit | @STL | @COL |
| Jack Flaherty, Det | WSH | @HOU |
| Dylan Cease, SD | OAK | @NYM |
- I know people who have Pablo Lopez on their rosters are frustrated. Despite his less than stellar start so far, I still believe in him, especially with those matchups. And, even more, Streamonator still believes in him. In fact, my putting him fourth in these ranks is pessimistic compared to the computer, which has him tops.
- Cease is another one I’m lower on than Streamonator, which has him third. I just can’t get entirely past the fact that he’s given up 3 or more earned runs in five straight starts. He always has the stuff to be the ace you want him to be, and this week he has the kind of matchups you want to see. But will we?
Sugar Cookies (Should Start)
They’re fine. You could certainly do worse than having these guys in your lineup, but don’t expect it to be remarkable.
| Pitcher | First Start | Second Start |
|---|---|---|
| Jesus Luzardo, Mia | @NYM | @WSH |
| Chris Paddack, Min | COL | OAK |
| Hunter Greene, Cin | CLE | MIL |
| Jose Berrios, Tor | @MIL | CLE |
| Zach Eflin, TB | CHC | @ATL |
| Seth Lugo, KC | NYY | @LAD |
| Ryan Pepiot, TB | BAL | @ATL |
- Streamonator has Paddack rated as the fifth-best two start pitcher this week. I’m sorry, but I’m not buying it. I didn’t lower him all the way into the Oatmeal Raisin tier, however, that’s more to do with his matchups than my actual confidence in him as a pitcher.
- We currently have Greene scheduled to start twice in a five-game week. I’m including him here because it’s possible the Reds do that, but I’d be surprised if they didn’t use Nick Martinez or someone else on Sunday. In that case, Greene would have two starts the following week instead.
- Lugo is sort of the opposite of Paddack, in that Streamonator hates him this week. I recognize that he’s been overperforming his metrics to this point, and his matchups are far from ideal. It may be human hubris, but I simply cannot list him amongst the Fortune Cookies this week.
Oatmeal Raisin Cookies (Could Start)
These aren’t for everyone. These are the pitchers that may be a pleasant surprise, or they could ruin your week. Tread lightly.
| Pitcher | First Start | Second Start |
|---|---|---|
| Marcus Stroman, NYY | @KC | @BOS |
| Nick Pivetta, Bos | PHI | NYY |
| Albert Suarez, Bal | @TB | PHI |
| Spencer Arrighetti, Hou | @SF | DET |
| Tylor Megill, NYM | MIA | SD |
| Brady Singer, KC | NYY | @LAD |
| Miles Mikolas, StL | PIT | @CHC |
| Jameson Taillon, ChC | @TB | STL |
| Jose Soriano, LAA | @ARI | @SF |
- We have Suarez projected to pitch twice this week, but this is being written before we have definitive word on Cade Povich’s future. If the Orioles decide to cook with a six-man rotation this week, it’ll be one-and-done for Albert.
Fortune Cookies (Do Not Start)
Yeah, they’re technically cookies. Hold on, what does that little slip of paper say? “Bad times are heading your way.” Oh. Okay, then.
| Pitcher | First Start | Second Start |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Estes, Oak | @SD | @MIN |
| Kyle Harrison, SF | HOU | LAA |
| Jordan Montgomery, Ari | LAA | CHW |
| Colin Rea, Mil | TOR | CIN |
| Erick Fedde, ChW | @SEA | @ARI |
| Dane Dunning, Tex | @LAD | @SEA |
| James Paxton, LAD | TEX | KC |
| JP Sears, Oak | @SD | @MIN |
| Dakota Hudson, Col | @MIN | PIT |
| Patrick Corbin, Wsh | @DET | MIA |
| Jonathan Cannon, ChW | @SEA | @ARI |
- Last week I mentioned my irrational desire to see what Joey Estes might do. He rewarded that curiosity with an excellent start against Seattle, but didn’t get to make a second one. So, again, I sort of want to start him, even though I know I shouldn’t. And I definitely can’t in good conscience tell you that you should. I’m just being transparent.
- Streamonator has Montgomery up near the border between Sugar and Oatmeal Raisin, but I can’t do it. He has been a disaster lately. If anyone can help fix him, the White Sox can. But that’s a gamble your ratios may not be able to handle.
- It’s not entirely clear what the Brewers’ plans are for the beginning of the week, but as of writing we have Rea penciled in for double duty.
- Even more than the Brewers, I have no clue what the White Sox are planning to do. When Cannon got called up, the assumption was he’d be taking over a rotation spot. Then they used him for a three-inning save Friday night, which almost certainly takes him out of starting consideration to start the week. But, it’s the White Sox. Whoever they throw out there, you don’t want.
