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U.S. wheat futures rose Friday following indications that Europe’s harvest likely will be smaller.
Russian research firm SovEcon said it has reversed course on its outlook for the size of the country’s wheat crop, now seeing the harvest falling to 82.9M metric tons from previous guidance of 84.7M tons.
“This adjustment reflects a smaller area figure recently reported by Russia’s statistical agency, Rosstat – 28.5M hectares compared to SovEcon’s earlier estimate of 29.2M hectares – as well as lower yield projections,” SovEcon said.
Also, Strategie Grains cut its forecast for the 2024-25 European Union soft-wheat crop by 5% due to smaller production in France and Germany, and France’s agriculture ministry said the country’s soft wheat output likely will come in 25% lower than the five-year average.
The latest reports offer “more evidence that perhaps the world cash wheat market may be carving out a broad bottom currently,” StoneX analyst Arlan Suderman said, according to Dow Jones.
Egypt is looking to purchase as much as 3.8M tons of wheat in an unusually big tender on Monday, while Algeria also announced a tender earlier this week; the tenders “underlined the willingness of many importers to purchase at current levels,” CRM analysts wrote, as reported by Bloomberg.
CBOT front-month wheat (W_1:COM) for September delivery settled +0.8% to $5.42 1/4 per bushel, while December corn (C_1:COM) ended -0.4% to $3.95 1/2 per bushel, and soybeans (S_1:COM) for November delivery closed -0.7% to $10.02 per bushel.
ETFs: (NYSEARCA:WEAT), (NYSEARCA:CORN) (NYSEARCA:SOYB), (DBA), (MOO)
Traders also are positioning for any potential surprises ahead of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s monthly WASDE crop report due Monday; analysts expect the USDA will raise its U.S. wheat production outlook for the 2024 crop by 0.4% to 2.02B bushels, according to a Bloomberg survey.
