After Jazz Chisholm Jr. told reporters, “They just got lucky,” in reference to the Royals’ 4-2 win over the Yankees in Game 2 of the ALDS on Monday night, some teams might have pinned that quote to their figurative bulletin boards and set out to earn a decisive win in front of their home crowd in Game 3. In its full context, Chisholm Jr.’s quote focused more on the Yankees’ missing opportunities to positively impact the game than actually discrediting the play of the Royals, but along with their elite athlete genes, pro ballplayers carry a special gene that allows them to get 27 varieties of riled up over even the smallest perceived slight.
Aaron Boone, former player and current manager of the Yankees, knows this as well as anyone and tried to throw water on his third baseman’s incendiary comments during his own session with the media, saying: “I don’t think they got lucky. I think they did a lot of really good things, and came in here and beat us.” Boone went on to reframe the issue as the Yankees’ getting unlucky on some hard-hit batted balls, which sounds better in theory but still attributes some randomness to the Royals’ win.
Wednesday night opened in Kansas City with a sea of fans adorned in royal blue booing their lungs out as Chisholm Jr. was introduced to the crowd at Kauffman Stadium. He soaked in the moment with a wide smile and seemed to mouth, “I love it” multiple times as the vengeful cries rained down around him. However, by evening’s end the masses fell silent. The Yankees emerged victorious with a 3-2 win over the Royals to carry a 2-1 series lead into Game 4 on Thursday.
But did the Yankees’ win result from the tides turning in their favor? Did baseball prowess or favorable fortunes lead to their conquest? We probably shouldn’t hold our breath while we wait for quotes from the Yankees’ clubhouse admitting they eked one out with the help of Lady Luck, so we’ll have to puzzle through this one on our own.
Seth Lugo took the mound for the Royals in the top of the first and needed just seven pitches to do away with Gleyber Torres, Juan Soto, and Aaron Judge. Soto launched the third pitch he saw 410 feet at an exit velocity of 107.7 mph, a batted ball that goes for a hit 91% of the time and is a home run in 17 of the 30 ballparks; however, because the cavernous Kauffman Stadium is not one of those 17 parks, Soto’s shot landed in Kyle Isbel’s glove. Bobby Witt Jr. defied the odds by snagging a 114.4-mph line drive off the bat of Judge, denying a hit on a ball with an expected batting average of .860.
As the Royals stood in against Clarke Schmidt in the bottom of the first, they too, felt the sting of bad batted ball luck, but not to the same degree. Witt Jr. flied out after sending a 3-2 cutter 368 feet to right field at 101.3 mph. Before the ball landed in Soto’s glove, it had an xBA of .640 and would have been a home run in 10 of 30 big league stadiums. On the next pitch, Vinnie Pasquantino grounded out to second on a ball that goes for a hit 59% of the time.
In the bottom of the second Yuli Gurriel logged the first hit of the game, pulling a double to left field at 95.9 mph off the bat with a launch angle of 29 degrees. Given that such a batted ball has only a .270 xBA, it might feel like Gurriel got lucky relative to the other balls put in play thus far. But expected batting average considers only exit velocity, launch angle, and in the case of grounders, batter sprint speed. What xBA doesn’t consider is spray angle, ballpark, defensive positioning, or hit distance, and that’s what Gurriel had going in his favor. His batted ball collided with the left field wall, impeding its natural trajectory; if the ball were hit to a deeper part of the park, the outfielder would’ve had the time and space to get to the ball and make a clean catch without interacting with the wall. Nevertheless, batted balls with a .270 xBA are still hits 27% of the time, and Gurriel’s fell into the favorable group.
That said, the ball was projected to travel 354 feet, but at Kaufmann Stadium, the wall stopped it dead at 330 feet, preventing it from sailing into the stands for a home run, as would have been the case in 22 of the 30 ballparks. Again, hit distance isn’t part of the xBA calculation. While Gurriel may have been lucky to get a hit on a batted ball with a .270 xBA, the Yankees were luckier that the outfield wall had kept the ball in play and a run off the board.
Part of the theory behind xBA is that it is, “[M]ore indicative of a player’s skill than regular batting average, as xBA removes defense from the equation. Hitters, and likewise pitchers, are able to influence exit velocity and launch angle but have no control over what happens to a batted ball once it is put into play.” Similarly, a metric like FIP seeks to remove defense from the equation for pitchers by instead focusing on the outcomes not impacted by defense, and therefore, the ones that are more in the pitcher’s control: strikeouts, walks, and home runs. After throwing just 16 pitches total during the first two innings, Lugo allowed a walk to eight-hole hitter Oswaldo Cabrera. This had nothing to do with luck; Lugo threw several noncompetitive pitches to a hitter with pretty average swing rates both in and out of the zone. Cabrera’s walk didn’t hurt the Royals, nor did a nine-pitch duel with Torres that ultimately ended the inning with a fly out. Hit 100.5 mph off the bat at a 32-degree launch angle, Torres’ ball had an xBA of .500 and would’ve been a home run in 13 of the 30 parks. Though the Yankees stayed off the board, Lugo was laboring to locate quality pitches in the zone and really earn those outs.
When Lugo returned for the fourth, he opened the frame with a walk to Soto. Here he missed mostly in the shadow zone, which may have coaxed a swing or two out of most hitters, but Soto, known for his elite batting eye, was not so easily tempted. Lugo retired Judge on a routine fly ball, then went to work for a second time on Giancarlo Stanton. Lugo maintained the same approach as in their first meeting, a groundout to short, and peppered Stanton with pitches inside. But then Lugo missed his location with a sinker, leaving it out over the middle of the plate. This season, Stanton hit sinkers better than any other pitch type, posting a 203 wRC+ against those offerings. Upon getting his favorite pitch to hit, Stanton rocketed a double 406 feet at 114.1 mph to deep center field (.870 xBA, a homer in 13 of 30 ballparks). Soto scored and Stanton very much earned both the hit and the RBI.
By the fifth inning, Lugo really seemed to be running out of ways to get outs. He started the frame by emptying the kitchen sink against Anthony Volpe, going sweeper, four-seamer, slurve, changeup, and slurve, before Volpe sent a cutter up the middle at 108.6 mph for a single (.610 xBA, no luck needed). Lugo then walked Cabrera again on almost an exact carbon copy of his free pass in the third, and Alex Verdugo gifted the defense an out courtesy of a sacrifice bunt against a pitcher with dwindling control. Torres followed that up with a walk to load the bases, and Soto hit a sac fly to extend New York’s lead to 2-0. Soto’s batted ball had a 97-mph exit velocity, a 32-degree launch angle, and a .280 xBA: neutral on the luck meter. Judge then hit a ho-hum fly ball to end the inning and Lugo’s night.
After a couple quiet innings at the plate, the Royals came to bat in the bottom of the fifth ready to chip away at the Yankees’ lead, or at least drive Schmidt from the game. MJ Melendez led off the frame and hit a line drive 106.9 mph with a .640 xBA; Judge needed to move only a few steps to make the catch (bad luck). The next batter, Maikel Garcia, grounded out, but then Adam Frazier singled on a soft grounder to the shortstop side of second base. It had a 67.7-mph exit velocity and an xBA of .080, but it went for a hit because the infield was shading the lefty-swinging Frazier to pull; Volpe ranged to his right to field the ball, but he had to rush and, as a result, his throw to first was high and pulled Cabrera off the bag. Isbel then doubled in Frazier on a ball hit 329 feet to left field at 94.2 mph that caromed around the base of the wall, oblivious to the notion that it had only a 16% chance of falling for a hit. Given where the ball landed, the Yankees’ defensive positioning combined with the curvature of the outfield dimensions spelled good fortunes for the Royals. Michael Massey then smacked a triple to score Isbel and tie the game.
Though Massey’s fly ball was hit 103.0 mph at a launch angle of 17 degrees and had an xBA of .640 – the characteristics of a definite hit – one still might argue he lucked into getting that RBI triple instead of a single with Isbel holding at third. The ball was hit to Soto, who decided to attempt a diving catch instead of letting it drop in front of him. Given the ball’s hang time and landing location relative to Soto’s starting position, the catch probability for an average defender was 10%. But Soto isn’t an average defender. He amassed -4 OAA during the regular season because his routes aren’t great and he’s not very fast. On this particular play, his route was fine, but it wasn’t enough to overcome the distance he needed to travel for a ball that didn’t hang up long. In 24 chances this season, Soto has made zero catches on fly balls with catch probabilities at or below 25%. He never really had a shot at robbing Massey of a hit, but elite baseball player confidence remains undefeated. Soto went for it, and Massey was fortunate enough to reap the reward.
Massey’s triple capped Schmidt’s outing. Clay Holmes entered and yielded an unintentional intentional walk to Witt Jr. before getting Pasquantino to fly out to end the inning with the score still tied. Left-hander Angel Zerpa took over for Lugo to start the sixth. With one out, Stanton continued to carry the Yankees offense by singling up the middle on the only pitch he saw that wasn’t in off the plate, and hey, look at that, the pitch also happened to be a sinker. After Zerpa punched out the next batter, the lefty Chisholm, manager Matt Quatraro called on righty John Schreiber to replace Zerpa, setting up the most improbable moment of the night.
Perhaps it was understandable that Schreiber paid no attention to Stanton at first. Injuries have taken their toll on the 34-year-old DH, who no longer plays the outfield because his mobility is limited. He had third-percentile sprint speed this season and hadn’t so much as attempted a stolen base in more than four years, since completing a successful swipe on August 3, 2020. For his next most recent steal, you’d have to go back to 2018, his first year with the Yankees. So, naturally, without Schreiber or the first baseman Gurriel holding him on, Stanton stole second. Though improbable, Stanton’s steal was a product of neglect, not luck, and the Royals were fortunate that the Yankees stranded him there.
Holmes also pitched a clean sixth inning, which included a Melendez fly out on a ball with a .410 xBA (100.5-mph exit velocity, 35-degree launch angle). The Yankees then handed the ball to Tommy Kahnle to start the seventh. Before he was relieved with one out in the eighth, Kahnle faced four batters and recorded four outs while throwing nothing but changeups. His changeup usage sat at 73% this season, so the fact that he threw 100% changeups in an outing was weird, but not THAT weird.
Kris Bubic came on to pitch the eighth for Kansas City, and after getting Austin Wells to strike out for a third time in the game, Stanton stepped in. I can’t imagine Bubic was tempted to throw him a sinker — he only throws his 3% of the time — and he avoided Lugo’s mistake of missing with a pitch in the middle of the plate. None of that mattered. After getting into a hitters count, Bubic’s 3-1 pitch was a slider just beneath the zone — not a bad pitch — but Stanton was ready to swing. The slugger went down to get it and sent it on a one-way trip to hang out with those astronauts who are currently stranded on the International Space Station. No exit velocity or expected stats needed here to tell you this one wasn’t luck. The moonshot put the Yankees back on top.
Following the home run, Bubic got Chisholm to pop out, walked Volpe and Cabrera, and then induced an inning-ending groundout. Bubic came into the game having last pitched during Game 2 on Monday. He threw two innings in that game, something he did only three times during the regular season. After returning from Tommy John surgery on July 6, Bubic threw 30 1/3 innings for the Royals over the final three months of the season. He never pitched on back-to-back days and usually got at least two days of rest between outings, if not three or four. Perhaps some combination of familiarity and fatigue led to Wednesday’s rough outing. Perhaps a good hitter put a good swing on a good pitch. Perhaps all of the above.
The Yankee offense endured one more tough luck at-bat. Facing Michael Lorenzen in the ninth after a rough night at the plate, Wells connected with a curveball and drove it on a line to center field at 94.7 mph with an xBA of .460. It landed in Isbel’s glove for the second out of the inning.
Before that, though, Yankees closer Luke Weaver entered the game with one out in the eighth, tasked with getting a five-out save. Weaver, who took over closing duties from Holmes in September, promptly allowed a single to Witt on a grounder through the six hole. It had only a 26% likelihood of going for a hit, but as established earlier, that likelihood doesn’t consider defensive positioning. Despite Witt Jr.’s tendency to pull groundballs, Volpe was shaded near second base, leaving a hole on the left side of the infield for Witt to slip one through. Volpe stayed swung around near second for the left-handed hitting Pasquantino, who hit a soft liner up the middle; despite its feeble 67.1-mph exit velocity, it had a .730 xBA. And yet, to the surprise of both xBA and Bob Costas on the call, who initially declared a hit for Pasquantino, Volpe needed only a few steps to make a diving grab for the second out of the eighth. From there, Weaver finished off the eighth and retired the side in the ninth with minimal intrigue.
Based on the evidence above, both teams caught a few lucky bounces and endured some bad breaks. The Yankees broke through their hard luck in the early innings by remaining disciplined at the plate and putting the kind of swings on the ball that took luck out of the equation. But the Royals wouldn’t have accomplished much on offense without several strokes of good fortune in that two-run fifth inning.
Moreover, by handing out nine walks to Yankees hitters, Royals pitchers set themselves up to need those lucky breaks; three of those free passes contributed to run-scoring rallies. In Game 1 of the series, the Royals issued eight walks in a 6-5 loss. Kansas City’s starter that night, Michael Wacha, told reporters after the game, “We pride ourselves on making them earn their way on base. And we’re going to do that. We’ve got to get back in the zone, filling it up and making quality pitches in the zone.” Though pitchers have more control in avoiding walks than hitters have in drawing them, hitters do earn them when given the opportunity. The Yankees capitalize on those chances better than any other team. They led the majors with a 10.8% walk rate during the regular season.
For the Royals to bounce back in the series, they’ll need to rely more on the factors they do control — like limiting walks — and less on factors they don’t — like favorable batted ball outcomes. Because the Yankees didn’t rely on luck to win Game 3, if they actually do get lucky at some point, the Royals’ postseason run might meet its unfortunate demise.
