Would you trade me your sandwich for my bag of chips? What if I threw in a pudding cup? Should we swap backpacks? Baseball cards? The desire to work out exchanges – and to do the comparative analysis necessary to decide whether you’d make a trade – is universal. It’s only natural that sports accentuate that feeling: At their core, sports are mostly about deciding which of two things is better.
Welcome to the 2024 edition of our annual Trade Value series. Starting today and continuing all week, we’re releasing our list of the 50 most valuable players in baseball, taking player performance, age, and contract into account. Dave Cameron, Kiley McDaniel, Craig Edwards, and Kevin Goldstein have all headlined this column before; this is my third year doing it on my own.
I say “on my own,” but that only describes the first half of the process. To start, I gathered every possible input I could think of: age, contract status, measures of current production, estimates of future production, Statcast data, pitch-level modeling — the list goes on. I used all of those inputs to come up with an initial quantitatively defined ranking, then honed that ranking by diving into individual player comparisons in greater detail. With that done, I got feedback from the FanGraphs staff (special thanks to Dan Szymborski for his ZiPS assistance and to Meg Rowley for being a frequent sounding board) to refine my thinking further.
Next, I reached out to sources on the team side. I cast a wider net than usual this year, trying to get different perspectives on player value from organizations that have different methodological leanings, and occupy different places on the win curve. Make no mistake, though: Despite all the help that this horde of people was kind enough to offer me, these rankings are my own.
To that end, this list is my subjective ranking of the 50 players in baseball who I think would fetch the most if their team traded them. It’s not a consensus list of which players are valued most by the industry, though there is of course considerable overlap with that criteria. There will be players on here who I’m higher on than consensus and vice versa. I’ll call out the largest disagreements in the individual writeups. If I’m ranking a player higher than consensus, it certainly doesn’t mean that consensus is wrong, though obviously I think it is.
With that said, I’m trying to answer this question: Taking everything about a player into account, which players would garner the highest trade value, from any team, if every team viewed players the same way I do? It’s not the average value that each team would assign a player based on those teams’ individual competitive windows and financial limitations; just as with real trades, with my list, there’s a highest bidder, a team most motivated to acquire someone’s services, and that’s what I care about. To give you an example from today’s honorable mentions, there are a lot of teams that couldn’t trade for Zack Wheeler regardless of price. That doesn’t matter, though, because it only takes a handful of teams to make a market.
I think this is an important distinction. You can imagine looking at this list from the perspective of a small-market team, or a rebuilding team, or a team with an All-Star already entrenched at a given position, and scratching your head at the order. The Orioles wouldn’t trade for Will Smith (spoiler: he’s on the main part of the list). Where would he play? The A’s wouldn’t trade for Tarik Skubal (spoiler: he’s ranked too). He’d be gone before they sniff contention even if they went out and added him tomorrow.
A list of the aggregate preference, averaged across all 30 teams, might look different. But that’s not how trades work in the real world, and so it’s not how I’m evaluating players for this series. All I care about is the highest offer every player could fetch, because in the end that’s what determines their value in trade. As long as there’s no salary cap and star players are in short supply, the best players in the market carry a trade premium beyond what you’d expect from some linear form of value, and I’ve attempted to account for that in my rankings.
A note on this specifically: I’m not happy with how I accounted for star players on large contracts last year. I went through the trouble of explaining all of these considerations, and then I just shoved every player who fit that bill into the honorable mentions. It was a cop out, and one I’m not repeating this year. I think that there are a handful of players good enough to command a huge haul in trade despite their sizable contracts. Maybe there would be an exchange of money involved, but the number of prospects going the other way in such a deal would make up for it. I’ll cover those cases when I rank those players.
One more note on structure: I’m going to indicate tiers of players this year. Is that just another thing to disagree with me about? Maybe, but I think it does a better job of explaining my thinking, and drives home the point that not every one-spot gap on this list means the same thing. The tiers should be fairly self-explanatory, but just to be safe, a reminder that the first and last player in a given tier are closer to each other in value than they are to the nearest players in neighboring tiers. The tiers will be demarcated in the table that appears at the end of each article in the series, and I’ll also reference them as I break down my thinking about the first and last player in each tier.
As I mention every year, cutting the list off at 50 players was an arbitrary decision made long ago, but it’s one I completely support. There has to be some cutoff — just look at how many honorable mentions there are — and 50 does a good job of getting all the best players on the list without filling it with too much fluff at the bottom. That said, cutting things off at 50 implies a bright-line distinction between 50 and 51 that doesn’t reflect reality. The players from 38-60 were all quite close to each other in my estimation. You could make an argument for any of those guys being on the list, and trust me, plenty of the people I talked to made those arguments. Most of the players in the honorable mention section could reasonably belong on the back end of the list, in fact.
For the players who appeared on last year’s list, you’ll see their 2023 ranking in parentheses after their name. I’ve also included a separate section of players who made the list last year but fell off and aren’t honorable mentions this year. I’m going to hold my weekly chat Friday at 10 AM ET (rather than later this afternoon) so that I can take your questions on the full list.
That’s a lot of words about the process of making this list, and there will be plenty more in the comments accompanying each ranked player. For now, though, let’s get to the honorable mentions.
Departing the List, Not an Honorable Mention
Wander Franco (2)
Framber Valdez (22)
Alejandro Kirk (39)
Jordan Walker (43)
Cedric Mullins (44)
Lars Nootbaar (47)
Ke’Bryan Hayes (48)
Josh Jung (49)
Franco is on the restricted list following charges of sexual abuse and exploitation of a minor and human trafficking in the Dominican Republic; he seems unlikely to play professional baseball again.
Valdez hasn’t been much better than league average for the last year-plus, and he’s also rapidly nearing free agency. If he had either more team control or more current juice, he’d still be on the list, but, well, he doesn’t.
The rest of the group boils down to a bunch of hitters I grouped at the end of last year’s list. First, there are the injury cases. Nootbaar has been pretty good when healthy – 2.7 WAR in 418 plate appearances in the last calendar year – but he’s accumulated enough injuries that the floor on his value feels lower. He was on the list last year because of that floor, but now I’m downgrading him to a solid player who needs to put together a few healthy years in a row. The same goes for Jung. It’s hard to value the team control when he’s played so infrequently.
Kirk, Mullins, and Hayes were all on the list because of their blend of defensive excellence and offensive competence (Kirk maybe fits that description less perfectly, but defensive metrics love him). In each case, they just haven’t hit enough; none of them has even average offensive production. Finally, Walker’s game has just collapsed; he was bopping in the majors last year even as he was held back by his defense, but he’s been 28% below average offensively in Triple-A this year.
Injury Ward
Spencer Strider (10)
Shane McClanahan (11)
Sandy Alcantara (17)
Eury Pérez (18)
Matt McLain (28)
Kodai Senga
What a brutal run of injuries. The four pitchers headlining this group are among the very best in the game and were the top four pitchers on last year’s list. They’ve all had Tommy John surgery since then. No one would trade for them right now – there’s no guarantee they’ll return to the field at their prior level of skill, and it might take them a year or two to regain their incandescent form even if they do get back to that level. If they return to what they were before injury, they’ll catapult back up the rankings, but this is about current trade value, and they just don’t have any until they return to the majors.
McLain is a slightly different case, as teams are generally more willing to take on risk when it comes to hitters. Ronald Acuña Jr. was on this list when he was recovering from an ACL tear in 2021, and he’s on it again this year despite being out for the season. McLain looks like the real deal to me. He combined excellent defense and a potent power bat last year before missing the last month of the season with an oblique injury. Then he hurt his shoulder in spring training and needed a surgical repair, and he still hasn’t even started a rehab assignment. There’s just not enough track record to support a higher valuation. If he returns at roughly the same level as his 2023 self, he’ll easily command a spot on next year’s list.
Senga is a tier down in terms of value, largely because his contract affords him a chance at an opt out after next year if he totals 400 innings from 2023-25. He isn’t a lock to hit that number, but it’s worth considering. Other than that wrinkle, he’s a great pitcher when healthy and should return to the majors soon, so he certainly belongs in this group.
Luxury Semi-Rentals
Bo Bichette (20)
Zac Gallen (24)
Kyle Tucker (30)
Randy Arozarena (34)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (35)
Dylan Cease (HM)
Ranger Suárez
These seven players will all help your team, and none of them will break the bank. The reason they didn’t break into the top 50 comes down to how long they’ll help you for. Arozarena will reach free agency after the 2026 season, the other six after 2025. Team control isn’t the only factor in trade evaluation – give me 1.5 years of Gallen over five years of a below-average pitcher every day – but no one in this list quite had the juice to get past honorable mention status.
Gallen, Cease, and Suárez are each having a solid season, but their 2024s have been more “great number two” than “world-beating ace,” and Gallen has dealt with a hamstring injury besides. Guerrero is in the midst of his best season since 2021, but he still hasn’t come close to repeating that incredible high. He looks like an above-average first baseman more than he does an MVP-contender. Arozarena and Bichette have been quite poor this year so far, but each has a long enough track record of raking that a second-half bounce-back is likely, though Bichette is now dealing with a calf strain that could keep him out for a few weeks.
That just leaves Tucker, and his situation is the strangest of the group. He was breaking out to the tune of a 174 wRC+ this year, but he’s been sidelined since the beginning of June with a shin injury and still hasn’t started a rehab assignment. If he had a clean bill of health, I think teams would back up the truck for him, but health matters here, and I can’t imagine offering a huge prospect haul in exchange for a player who’s gone after 2025 and whose status for the rest of the season is still in question. More than anyone else here, Tucker’s value will fluctuate quite a bit based on reports of his health.
Ultra-luxury Rentals
Juan Soto (29)
Corbin Burnes (HM)
Soto and Burnes will both hit free agency in three months, and they both got traded this offseason as a result. They’re clearly staying put – but if they weren’t, there’d be a feeding frenzy, because they’ve both lived up to the billing. Burnes is on his way to his fifth straight excellent season, and given that he’s throwing harder and missing more bats, I’m not worried about the downtick in strikeout rate. Soto is doing Juan Soto things – he’s racked up 8.3 WAR in the last calendar year, and nothing about it looks unsustainable. Either of these guys could credibly be the best player on a World Series winner. It would just have to be this year’s World Series winner if they were somehow traded, because there’s no extension equity here; it’s 2024 parade or bust.
Good Pitchers on Good Contracts
Luis Castillo (32)
Shota Imanaga
Tyler Glasnow
Sonny Gray
All four of these pitchers are All-Star caliber arms on reasonable contracts. They all have potential yellow flags – age for Castillo and Gray, lack of track record for Imanaga, and workload for Glasnow. I think that each has meaningfully positive trade value, and if I were a contending team with limited prospect capital, I’d love to add any of these options. I just don’t think you’d get quite the juice for these four that you would for some of the pitchers in the 41-50 range.
The Catcher Vortex
Sean Murphy (12)
Cal Raleigh
Murphy’s sudden fall seems injury-related, but I simply wouldn’t feel comfortable trading a lot for him when his last calendar year comprises 280-ish PA of 76 wRC+ work. It’s a good reminder that catchers don’t age predictably. I think that the worst-case trajectory for Murphy is that he turns into a high-end backup, but if that scenario is even a question, he can’t be more than an honorable mention.
Raleigh could very reasonably have been included on the main section of the rankings; he got squeezed out at the very end, but ask me a month ago or six weeks in the future, and I might give you a different answer. He’s above average in a lot of categories, but I’ve always been afraid of his offensive profile. He strikes out so often that he really needs to be leaving the yard to make the equation work. I’m far more confident in his defense, and he’s around for another three years after this.
Infielders With Upside
Ozzie Albies (31)
Jeremy Peña (37)
Oneil Cruz (42)
Spencer Steer (46)
Isaac Paredes (HM)
Andrés Giménez
Brice Turang
Albies has been a mainstay on trade value lists for years, and he’s still a good player, an All-Star if you catch him in a good season. He’s on a crazy good deal even now – $7 million a year through 2027 – but I think he’s on the decline defensively, so he’s less of a do-it-all guy than he was at peak. I have him as a solid contributor instead of a star at this point, and he’s going to be out for most of the rest of the season thanks to a broken wrist, further dimming his current appeal.
Peña, Giménez, and Turang are all plus defenders at up-the-middle positions, so they have a nice value floor. I’m not convinced that any of them will hit, though. Peña’s team control is ticking down, and Giménez’s contract starts to ramp up in 2025, so he’s less of a bargain than the other two. Turang is the best of the bunch for me; he won’t hit free agency until after the 2029 season and he’s playing at a similar level right now.
Steer and Paredes are broadly similar; they’re both good hitters who don’t move the needle defensively. They were both at the tail end of the top 50 in previous iterations. I think Paredes is the better of the two, but I’m cognizant of the fact that his game is custom-built for Tampa Bay’s ballpark, which makes trade evaluations hard. In either case, if you’re looking for offense in a can, these are good, young, controllable options.
Cruz still hasn’t put his extensive set of tools together consistently, and at this point his upside is probably “very good” instead of “Randy Moss playing baseball.” I opted for a little more present-day production in this year’s version of the list relative to previous years’, reflecting my changing understanding of the trade market and the competitive landscape, which is why I have him in HM land instead of in the 35-45 range.
I’m Skeptical, But I Could Be Convinced
Reese Olson (HM)
Evan Carter
Brenton Doyle
Jarren Duran
Royce Lewis
Brent Rooker
Cristopher Sánchez
Duran, Doyle, Olson, Rooker, and Sánchez are all enjoying breakout seasons. If they continue to produce like they have in recent history, they’ll be slam dunks for next year’s iteration of the list. In each case, though, I haven’t seen it for quite long enough to update my priors about them. Minor yellow flags – Duran’s power, Doyle’s plate discipline, Olson’s raw stuff and now injury, Rooker’s strikeouts, and Sánchez’s durability/consistency – mean I want more data before I’m convinced. If they finish 2024 playing at their current pace, though, they’ll easily belong in the top 50 next year.
Lewis was the hardest player in the majors for me to place; I’ve had him in the top 50 and outside of the top 100. I’m putting him here as an acknowledgement that he’s crazy talented, but let’s be real: It’s hard to trade for someone who can’t stay on the field. Finally, I just want to see more data on Carter. He was a spectacular hitter for about 150 PA (including the playoffs) last year, a bad hitter for about 150 PA this year, and is currently hurt. He could be a mainstay in future lists, or more of an above-average regular if 2024 is closer to his true talent than 2023.
Mason Miller
Mason Miller (HM)
There’s only one person in this category, naturally enough. Miller’s value is capped by his injury history and his role; peak Edwin Díaz fetched a ton in trade, but I’m not sure the same would be true today. This much team control for a pitcher this transcendent is rare, and teams will undoubtedly offer Oakland a valuable array of prospects for Miller at the deadline, but I don’t think he belongs higher than an honorable mention if he can’t start, and I doubt a team that trades for him will take that risk given how much time he missed with injury the last time he was in the rotation.
Byron Buxton
Byron Buxton (HM)
Two one-player categories? I couldn’t find anyone to group with Buxton, who is playing on an incentive-laden contract and also didn’t take the field for a single game in 2023. He looks elite in center field this year, and he’s absolutely raking, but I’m afraid enough of his injury history that I don’t think he belongs on the main part of the list. This could make me look pretty silly in a year, because when Buxton is on, he’s on, but there’s too much risk in my eyes.
You Can Never Have Enough Pitching
Hunter Brown (40)
Joe Ryan (45)
Taj Bradley (HM)
Bryce Miller (HM)
Freddy Peralta (HM)
Bryan Woo (HM)
Garrett Crochet
Tanner Houck
I’ll level with you: these eight fit snugly into a tier with six pitchers at the tail end of the top 50. There’s not a ton to differentiate them; it’s all a tradeoff between raw stuff, results, team control, and injury history. Would I feel great plugging any of these guys in as my unquestioned ace? Certainly not. Would I want them on my team? Certainly so. I personally like Houck most out of this group, but that was by no means true for everyone I talked to. I know I’ve already mentioned that there’s little separation at the tail end of the top 50, but I’m going to repeat it in specific reference to this group.
Youths
Roman Anthony
Samuel Basallo
Junior Caminero
Colton Cowser
Dylan Crews (HM)
Jackson Jobe
Xavier Isaac
Colt Keith
Heston Kjerstad
Coby Mayo
Joey Ortiz
Noah Schultz
Andrew Painter
Ceddanne Rafaela
AJ Smith-Shawver
As is customary, I asked Eric Longenhagen for a list of prospects with big upside or who could crack the list next year if they continue at their current pace. I mixed in some recent debuts who didn’t fit cleanly into any of the other honorable mention groups, too; Keith, Cowser, and Ortiz all look like they belong in the majors already, but they haven’t really kicked it into high gear yet. It’s a slimmer prospect list than normal; last year’s number one pick is already in the majors and on the main part of the list (spoiler), this year’s draft looks pretty thin at the top, and many of our preseason top prospects made the list proper. I think it’s just a cyclical issue, rather than a long-term shift, but this crop feels pretty light.
I had to draw the line somewhere for honorable mentions, but I’ll just mention one more group of players who got consideration: stars on big contracts who didn’t crack the top 50. Freddie Freeman, Wheeler, Gerrit Cole, Marcus Semien, Trea Turner, Yoshinobu Yamamoto – I think all of them are interesting, but just a tick or two behind the group of similar players who appear in the 41-50 section of the list. For what it’s worth, no. 51 on my list would have been Tanner Houck, with Cal Raleigh no. 52.
