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With the 2024 U.S. presidential elections heating up next week in the form of the first debate, Goldman Sachs’ portfolio strategy research team took a look at American companies which have the biggest exposure to domestic and international sales.
Current predictions call for a Republican victory, which would most likely see the return of former President Donald Trump. Goldman Sachs believes any legislation changes would probably affect the U.S. dollar, which in turn could influence the performance of companies.
“The first 2024 presidential debate will be held next Thursday, June 27th. Prediction markets assign a 42% probability to a Republican sweep. The policy outcomes from the election will likely impact the USD and the relative performance of equities with domestic vs. foreign sales,” Goldman Sachs analyst David Kostin said in a research note on Friday.
“We analyzed company level geographic sales data … The 22% weight of Semis in our International Sales basket (GSTHINTL) has contributed to the 5 pp YTD outperformance relative to our Domestic Sales basket (GSTHAINT). Geopolitical tension and tariffs are potential headwinds to our International Sales basket, which underperformed following the 2016 election and during the 2018 trade war,” Kostin added.
Goldman said the GSTHINTL and the GSTHAINT baskets each consisted of 50 S&P 500 (SP500) stocks with the highest revenue exposure to non-U.S. sales and sales in the U.S., respectively.
“The median GSTHAINT stock derives 0% of its revenues from abroad vs. 70% for the median GSTHINTL stock. International sales account for 28% of revenues for the median S&P 500 company,” Goldman’s Kostin said.
See below for a breakdown of the constituents of Goldman’s domestic sales basket (GSTHAINT) as of June 20:
Communication Services
- Verizon (VZ): annual sales – $134B; non-U.S. sales – 0%.
- T-Mobile US (TMUS): annual sales – $79B; non-U.S. sales – 0%.
- Charter Communications (CHTR): annual sales – $55B; non-U.S. sales – 0%.
- Fox (FOX)(FOXA): annual sales – $15B; non-U.S. sales – 0%.
- AT&T (T): annual sales – $122B; non-U.S. sales – 4%.
Consumer Discretionary
- Lowe’s Companies (LOW): annual sales – $86B; non-U.S. sales – 0%.
- D.R. Horton (DHI): annual sales – $35B; non-U.S. sales – 0%.
- Lennar (LEN): annual sales – $34B; non-U.S. sales – 0%.
- CarMax (KMX): annual sales – $27B; non-U.S. sales – 0%.
- Ross Stores (ROST): annual sales – $20B; non-U.S. sales – 0%.
Consumer Staples
- Kroger (KR): annual sales – $150B; non-U.S. sales – 0%.
- Target (TGT): annual sales – $107B; non-U.S. sales – 0%.
- Dollar General (DG): annual sales – $39B; non-U.S. sales – 0%.
Energy
- Marathon Petroleum (MPC): annual sales – $148B; non-U.S. sales – 0%.
- ONEOK (OKE): annual sales – $18B; non-U.S. sales – 0%.
Financials
- Wells Fargo (WFC): annual sales – $83B; non-U.S. sales – 0%.
- Allstate (ALL): annual sales – $57B; non-U.S. sales – 0%.
- Capital One Financial (COF): annual sales – $37B; non-U.S. sales – 0%.
- PNC Financial Services (PNC): annual sales – $32B; non-U.S. sales – 0%.
- Charles Schwab (SCHW): annual sales – $26B; non-U.S. sales – 0%.
- Truist Financial (TFC): annual sales – $23B; non-U.S. sales – 0%.
Health Care
- CVS Health (CVS): annual sales – $358B; non-U.S. sales – 0%.
- Elevance Health (ELV): annual sales – $171B; non-U.S. sales – 0%.
- Centene (CNC): annual sales – $154B; non-U.S. sales – 0%.
- Humana (HUM): annual sales – $106B; non-U.S. sales – 0%.
- Molina Healthcare (MOH): annual sales – $34B; non-U.S. sales – 0%.
- Quest Diagnostics (DGX): annual sales – $9B; non-U.S. sales – 0%.
Industrials
- Southwest Airlines (LUV): annual sales – $26B; non-U.S. sales – 0%.
- Union Pacific (UNP): annual sales – $24B; non-U.S. sales – 0%.
- Builders FirstSource (BLDR): annual sales – $17B; non-U.S. sales – 0%.
- Republic Services (RSG): annual sales – $15B; non-U.S. sales – 0%.
Information Technology
- Tyler Technologies (TYL): annual sales – $2B; non-U.S. sales – 0%.
- First Solar (FSLR): annual sales – $3B; non-U.S. sales – 4%.
- Intuit (INTU): annual sales – $14B; non-U.S. sales – 8%.
- CDW (CDW): annual sales – $21B; non-U.S. sales – 12%.
- Roper Technologies (ROP): annual sales – $6B; non-U.S. sales – 14%.
- Arista Networks (ANET): annual sales – $6B; non-U.S. sales – 23%.
- Skyworks Solutions (SWKS): annual sales – $5B; non-U.S. sales – 24%.
- Cognizant (CTSH): annual sales – $19B; non-U.S. sales – 26%.
- Fair Isaac (FICO): annual sales – $2B; non-U.S. sales – 27%.
- Super Micro Computer (SMCI): annual sales – $7B; non-U.S. sales – 32%.
- VeriSign (VRSN): annual sales – $1B; non-U.S. sales – 33%.
- Gartner (IT): annual sales – $6B; non-U.S. sales – 34%.
- Motorola Solutions (MSI): annual sales – $10B; non-U.S. sales – 34%.
- Palo Alto Networks (PANW): annual sales – $7B; non-U.S. sales – 36%.
- Enphase Energy (ENPH): annual sales – $2B; non-U.S. sales – 36%.
- Gen Digital (GEN): annual sales – $3B; non-U.S. sales – 37%.
Materials
- Nucor (NUE): annual sales – $35B; non-U.S. sales – 0%.
Real Estate
- Crown Castle (CCI): annual sales – $7B; non-U.S. sales – 0%.
Utilities
- Duke Energy (DUK): annual sales – $29B; non-U.S. sales – 0%.
