As Dan Szymborski pointed out in his ALCS preview, ZiPS saw the Gerrit Cole vs. Tanner Bibee face-off in Game 2 at Yankee Stadium (and the potential rematch in Game 6) as the most lopsided matchup in the series. It’s not hard to see why. The Yankees looked like (and still look like) the better team. They have the better no. 1 starter. And they had home field advantage.
At the same time, you can see why the Guardians might have liked their chances entering Game 2. Bibee is their only starter who Stephen Vogt can trust to throw five innings; he pitched into the fifth in each of his starts against the Tigers in the ALDS. If he could give his team some length in Game 2, they could close out the contest with a barrage of well-rested bullpen studs: Tim Herrin, Hunter Gaddis, Cade Smith, and Emmanuel Clase. Simply put, the Guardians can look like a completely different team with those five arms pitching all nine innings. I imagine the projections wouldn’t have been so lopsided if Bibee, Herrin, Gaddis, Smith, and Clase were guaranteed to pitch the full game.
Unfortunately for the Guardians, Bibee couldn’t make it out of the second inning on Tuesday, let alone the fifth. Meanwhile, it was the Yankees whose airtight bullpen secured the win. New York also had a little help from nearly everyone in the lineup, powering the Yankees to a 6-3 victory and putting them up 2-0 in the best-of-seven ALCS.
Cole made quick work of the Guardians in the top of the first. Bibee couldn’t do the same in the bottom of the frame. Gleyber Torres hit a 3-1 fastball into left field for a leadoff double, and Juan Soto drilled a single into right, putting runners on the corners for Aaron Judge. We all know what happened next. Judge hit a towering shot 103.3 mph off the bat and the Yankees took the lead. And to clarify, by “towering shot” I mean “towering infield popup,” and by “took the lead” I mean “took a 1-0 lead when Gold Glove finalist Brayan Rocchio dropped the popup and Torres scored from third.”
Bibee worked his way out of the inning without any more trouble (aided by a nice sliding catch by right fielder Will Brennan), but a seven-pitch at-bat from Jazz Chisholm Jr. ran up his pitch count before he escaped. The righty was at 27 pitches by the end of the first.
Cole allowed his first baserunner in the second when Josh Naylor pulled one of his high fastballs into right field for a single, but the Yankees ace settled in after that. A first-pitch fly out from Lane Thomas, a three-pitch strikeout of Brennan, and a foul pop out by Andrés Giménez got Cole out of the inning with his pitch count after two frames barely higher than Bibee’s after one; he looked comfortable.
Bibee came out for the second with a clean slate and a chance to settle in against the bottom of the Yankees order. Instead, Anthony Volpe chopped Bibee’s two-strike putaway pitch over the mound and into center field for a single, and Anthony Rizzo laced a fastball to right center for a single of his own. For the second time in as many innings, the Yankees had runners on the corners with no outs, and while that’s not nearly as scary with Alex Verdugo at the plate, it turned out to be a bigger problem for Bibee than it was in the first. Verdugo doubled past a dancing umpire in left field, scoring Volpe and putting New York up 2-0.
After that, the Yankees had runners on second and third. There were still no outs. The top of the order was due up. The time was ripe for drama, and the game delivered. Here’s what happened next: 1) Mound visit. 2) Smith starts getting loose in the bullpen. 3) Torres pops out. 4) Another mound visit. 5) Vogt intentionally walks Soto to load the bases for Judge. 6) Vogt calls for a pitching change.
There’s a lot to unpack here. For one thing, Bibee’s day was done after 39 pitches and four outs. The Guardians would need at least another 23 outs from the bullpen if they were going to win the game. Bibee never looked awful, and in a regular season game he would have gotten the chance to work his way out of the jam. Maybe he could have done it. Still, the Yankees were clearly seeing his pitches well and hitting them hard. Part of the problem might have been that the sinker he used as a valuable weapon in his first two postseason starts was nowhere to be seen.
Meanwhile, this was only the second time a team has intentionally walked Soto to face Judge. I’m not sure I agree with Vogt’s decision, but at least in this case, it’s clear what he was thinking. With runners on second and third, any ball in play could potentially drive in a run. Soto is better than Judge at putting the ball in play. Furthermore, with Soto on first, a double play ball from Judge could get the Guardians out of the inning. No AL batter hit into more double plays this past season than Judge. Walking Soto may have increased the Yankees’ run expectancy, but Vogt must have thought it would also increase his team’s chances of escaping the inning without any further damage. That was his priority.
We all know what happened next. Judge hit a high fastball out to center field, and the Yankees padded their lead. And to clarify, I’m talking about a sacrifice fly. Smith didn’t get the big strikeout or the double play, but he managed to avoid the worst-case scenario, retiring Austin Wells to end the threat.
“They were hitting the ball around the ballpark, and we needed to stop the game,” Vogt said. “In that situation, you want to try to get a double play ball. You want to try to get two outs with one pitch. You want to try to find a way to get out of that inning, and Cade did a great job doing that.”
After another scoreless inning from Cole, Smith returned for the bottom of the third and retired the side. He threw almost exclusively fastballs, and he didn’t need anything else to stymie the Yankees. There’s a reason his four-seamer was the most valuable pitch in the league this season. If Smith’s performance was any indication, perhaps the Guardians bullpen could keep them in the game over six more innings. Still, the offense would need to get something going against Cole for any of the bullpen’s efforts to matter.
The elder Naylor brother led off the fourth with his second single of the game, sending another high fastball to right field for a base hit. Thomas came up next and reached on a tapper that Chisholm tried to steal from Volpe. Neither of them came up with the ball, and it was ruled an infield hit. After a groundout from Brennan put runners on second and third, a cautious Cole walked Giménez on four pitchers, loading the bases and prompting Vogt to make an early substitution: David Fry came in to bat for catcher Bo Naylor.
It wasn’t an ideal situation to use Fry, who is much better suited to pinch-hit against left-handers, but Vogt must have wanted anyone other than Naylor taking that crucial plate appearance. Regrettably, Fry popped out on the first pitch he saw. That sent the nine-hole hitter Rocchio to the plate with two outs and the bases loaded. He put up a real effort, driving up Cole’s pitch count with a nine-pitch at-bat, but ultimately the ace won out, getting the rookie to strike out looking on a perfectly placed curveball on the upper outside corner of the strike zone.
The left-handed Herrin was the next man out of Cleveland’s ‘pen, and while he gave up a two-out single to the righty-batting Torres, he used his balanced arsenal to retire all three lefties he faced: Rizzo, Verdugo, and Soto. After four innings, Smith and Herrin had kept the Yankees lead at a manageable 3-0, and the Guardians bats finally did some damage in the top of the fifth.
Cole’s fifth inning started out a lot like his fourth. He gave up two hits and a walk to load the bases, and this time, he couldn’t wriggle his way out. Josh Naylor drove in Steven Kwan on a sacrifice fly, and Thomas drew a walk. It was Cole’s fourth walk of the game, and also his last; with the bases loaded again and only one out, Aaron Boone called for Clay Holmes. Holmes gave up another run on a fielder’s choice and walked the bases loaded again, but weak-hitting catcher Austin Hedges, who replaced Fry, struck out to end the inning. The Yankees had a 3-2 lead.
With half the game still to play, Vogt was always going to need to use a reliever outside of his trusted core, and he did so in the fifth, handing the ball to Eli Morgan. Yet, Morgan may have been the most effective Guardians reliever of the game. He was excellent, getting three fly balls on six pitches to sit down Judge, Wells, and Stanton in order. After that, the Yankees sent Tim Hill (their own left-handed Tim H.) to the mound, and he, too, produced a 1-2-3 inning, retiring Rocchio, Kwan, and Kyle Manzardo.
With the lefty-heavy lower portion of the Yankees’ order due up, Vogt called on rookie southpaw Erik Sabrowski next. Sabrowski made his major league debut on September 4 and had just eight regular-season appearances under his belt by the time he made the Guardians’ playoff roster. But across those eight appearances, he pitched 12 2/3 scoreless innings, and then he added two more innings without allowing a run in the ALDS. If could pitch a clean sixth, then Gaddis and Clase might be able to handle the rest of the game. Unfortunately, it turned out to be too much to ask from the inexperienced hurler. On Monday, Sabrowski gave up the first run of his big league career – a home run to Stanton. Then, in Game 2, Vogt asked him to pitch on back-to-back days for the first time as a major leaguer. That’s not easy.
Sabrowski started the inning by giving up a double to Chisholm and walking Volpe to bring up Rizzo, but a baserunning blunder briefly bailed him out. Chisholm left too early from second base on what Boone said after the game was supposed to be an attempted double steal, and Sabrowski picked him off. Rizzo came through after that, doubling in Volpe (with help from a fielding error by Brennan) and bumping the lead to 4-2.
Sabrowski stayed in to face Verdugo, who flied out, before Vogt went to Pedro Avila to face the top of New York’s order. Though, as it turns out, Avila wouldn’t end up needing to retire a single batter. This time it was Rizzo’s turn to TOOTBLAN. He misread a sweeper in the dirt and took off for third, thinking it had gone to the backstop. Instead, Hedges kicked out just enough to block it, got to his feet, and picked up the ball. At about this point, Rizzo realized that Hedges had the ball and halted between the bases, so Hedges pump-faked a throw to second to force Rizzo to decide which base he’d try to reach. He turned toward third and then shuffled a little in each direction, prompting Hedges to gallop toward him. Rizzo committed just enough to second base for Hedges to fire to Giménez, so Rizzo broke for third. Giménez threw to José Ramírez; Rizzo retreated. Ramírez then threw it to Giménez, and Rizzo ran to third again. Giménez sent it back to Ramírez, who finally tagged Rizzo to end the inning with a classic 2-4-5-4-5 putout.
Hill came back out in the seventh and quickly retired Ramírez and Naylor, before Boone brought in Tommy Kahnle to face Thomas. Thomas drew a walk, but Kahnle got Brennan to ground out and end the frame.
Although Avila had thrown only three pitches, there was no question that Vogt would turn to Gaddis in the seventh. Torres led things off with his third hit of the game, and after Soto flied out, Judge stepped to the plate. Facing a dominant right-handed reliever, Judge finally, actually did exactly what you’d expect him to do, crushing his first home run of the postseason to give the Yankees a 6-2 lead:
Dating back to September, Judge had gone more than 30 trips to the plate without a home run. That wouldn’t be so noteworthy for most hitters, but it was a veritable drought for Judge, who homered once every 12.14 plate appearances during the regular season.
Gaddis stayed in for one more batter, but with the game no longer close, Vogt went back to the ‘pen and asked Ben Lively, who was added to the ALCS roster on Tuesday in place of an injured Alex Cobb, to finish the game. Needless to say, Clase never needed to warm up. On the bright side for the Guardians, at least that means the Yankees have yet to see his stuff this series.
After Kahnle and Lively each pitched a scoreless eighth inning, Cleveland came to bat one more time in the top of the ninth. Somewhat surprisingly, Boone chose closer Luke Weaver to pitch in that spot, even though the Yankees were up by four and Weaver had recorded a multi-inning save the night before. Evidently, Boone wasn’t taking any chances as he sought to secure the win.
Facing Ramírez for the second time in as many days, Weaver gave up a solo home run to the Guardians’ best hitter, snapping his scoreless streak at 18 1/3 innings. Like Judge, Ramírez had been rather quiet in the postseason before his Game 2 blast, and it was a welcome sign of life for Ramírez and the Cleveland offense. However, that home run was all the Guards could muster against Weaver, and the Yankees closer ultimately secured his team’s 6-3 win.
The Yankees were far from perfect on Tuesday night. Cole labored through 4 1/3 innings, giving up six hits and four walks. The offense was 2-for-10 with runners in scoring position. Chisholm and Rizzo were each picked off second base (in the same inning, no less!). Still, seven of the nine hitters in the starting lineup recorded at least one hit. Torres, Soto, and Rizzo continued to hit the ball well, while Volpe had a terrific game of his own. Most importantly, the bullpen threw 4 2/3 innings, giving up just two hits and one run. Hill and Kahnle, in particular, were excellent, and for most of the game, it looked as if the bullpen was going to have to be near-perfect to close out a close contest. Then, of course, Judge made it not so close after all.
As for the Guardians, they needed a longer outing from Bibee, and they needed more from an offense that has averaged less than four runs per game during the playoffs. Moving forward, they’ll need a better plan than hoping for their bullpen to be perfect. As Gaddis demonstrated on Tuesday, that’s just not something they can always count on.
