The number of Atlanta Braves players on the injured list has reached double digits after two of their core players, starting pitcher Max Fried and second baseman Ozzie Albies, went down over the weekend. Fried had a 3.08 ERA/3.71 FIP across 108 innings for the Braves before landing on the IL with neuritis in his left forearm, which first flared up while he was warming up for his All-Star Game appearance. In Atlanta’s 6-2 loss to the Cardinals on Sunday, Albies broke his wrist when his glove hand collided with a sliding Michael Siani on a stolen base attempt; the second baseman is expected to be out for nearly the rest of the regular season.
To replace Fried and Albies on the roster, the Braves recalled lefty Dylan Dodd and shortstop Nacho Alvarez Jr. from Triple-A Gwinnett and signed veteran 2B/OF Whit Merrifield to a major league contract.
Ozzie Albies today underwent X-rays that revealed a left wrist fracture. He is expected to miss approximately eight weeks.
— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) July 21, 2024
After missing a good chunk of last year due to forearm pain, the 30-year-old Fried stumbled in his first two starts of this season but has been dominant since then. He’d also stayed healthy through the first half of the season, which was especially crucial for the Braves given the early-season loss of righty Spencer Strider to Tommy John surgery. The silver lining here – important since any mention of a pitcher’s having forearm pain justifiably will send fans into a panicked binge of one of their vices – is that there is no structural damage in his pitching arm and he will not require surgery. Instead, the Braves are choosing to be cautious with Fried because neuritis in the forearm can be related to an underlying problem with the UCL. Fried has already had Tommy John surgery once, about a decade ago when he was still a Padres prospect. Neither the Braves nor Fried have offered a timetable for his return, but Fried was optimistic that this would be a short-term issue. Per The Athletic’s David O’Brien:
“Everything structurally looks great, just a little irritated sensory nerve,” Fried said, “not one of the major muscle-functioning nerves. … Just going to let it calm down, and (I’m) hoping to be back soon.”
That there was no mention of ulnar nerve transposition surgery, which would have kept Fried out for months, has to be considered a good sign. Or, again, at least a less bad one.
After getting off to a hot start in April, Albies has struggled in recent months, and has hit just .235/.285/.376 since the end of April. He may be having arguably the worst year his career, but Atlanta was hopeful that he could return to form over the final two and a half months of the season. Losing even this lesser version of Albies lowers the ceiling of this underperforming offense, which ranks 11th among the 15 NL teams in runs scored.
Atlanta may be punchless, but it’s not witless – or should I say Whitless – as the team quickly signed Merrifield to a major league contract. Merrifield’s peak years with the Royals are long behind him at this point, and he was only available for the Braves because the Phillies released him over a week ago after he’d batted .199/.277/.295 (65 wRC+) across 174 plate appearances in a utility role. The projection systems are not bullish on Merrifield’s performance the rest of the season; Steamer expects Merrifield to post a .250/.303/.362 line over the final months of the year while ZiPS has him slightly worse, at .244/.293/.354. That said, the Braves simply don’t have any good in-house options to turn to instead. I ran the projections for every player at Triple-A or Double-A for Atlanta who has played at least three games at second base this year. I’m also including Alvarez, who has not played second base professionally but appears to be the frontrunner to replace Albies.
ZiPS Projections – Merrifield vs. Braves Minor Leaguers
If ZiPS is correct, the Braves appear to have identified Alvarez as their best short-term option at second base, with Merrifield filling a utility role and serving as the best second-base Plan B.
The Phillies were already overwhelming favorites to win the NL East, with ZiPS giving them an 85% chance of taking the division as of this morning if Fried and Albies had been healthy. Assuming two missed months for Albies and an average of three weeks for Fried, ZiPS drops Atlanta’s chances of running down the Phillies from 14% to 6%. Fortunately, the Braves remain in a commanding position for one of the NL Wild Card spots. These two injuries only drop their playoff probability in ZiPS from 91% to 88%, so while unwelcome, they shouldn’t cause any premature towel-throwing.
In one last bit of looking on the bright side, Atlanta has a lot more options now than it would if these injuries happened in two weeks. We’re just over a week from the trade deadline, and there are a variety of second basemen and pitchers, of varying plausibility, available. A package that included a relief arm – Atlanta is deep here – could conceivably tempt the Orioles into parting with a prospect like Connor Norby. Amed Rosario of the Rays and Isiah Kiner-Falefa of the Blue Jays have both been solid this season. I’m not sure Atlanta could successfully trade its entire farm system and get Garrett Crochet or Tarik Skubal if it wanted to, but the price of Erick Fedde ought to be more reasonable. The Braves might choose to stick with what they have and muddle through, but it’s always nice to be able to make that choice.
It says a lot about the Braves that despite all of their nasty surprises this season, they remain on a pace to win 89 games and comfortably make the playoffs. But with these two latest injuries, the team’s margin for error has been cut thinner than a nice piece of charcuterie.
